Notes today: 

• Debt investors face a “bleak future:” so says Warren Buffett in his latest letter . Risky debt "is not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.” 

• 
  Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been transferred to a penal colony outside Moscow. 
  

• The $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, all attention is moving to the vote in Senate.. 

• ZD Net: Apple now sells more phones than Samsung.

• The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China dropped to its lowest in a year of 51.4 in February 2021 from 52.4 in the previous month. 

• The official NBS Manufacturing PMI for China fell to 50.6 in February 2021 from 51.3 a month earlier and less than market expectations of 51.1 

• China’s iron ore futures rose its fourth straight week, while steel rebar and hot-rolled coil advanced on higher downstream consumption. Capacity utilization rose to 92.28%. 

• Container shortage slows Indian sugar exports, fuels price rally.

• Iceberg More Than 20 Times the Size of Manhattan Breaks Off Antarctic Ice Shelf

 

 Quick Overview is up to  date

“The Adoration of the Golden Calf,” by Nicolas Poussin, 1633-1634:

and CPAC 2021 A golden Trump (made in Mexico)

 Latest Kevin Kal Kallaugher

 Notes today:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has Personal income increasing  10.0 percent (monthly rate) while consumer spending increased 2.4 percent in January as provisions of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act enacted on December 27, 2020, began to take effect. 

Bloomberg: SEC Suspends Trading in 15 Stocks That Got Hyped on Social Media:

The SEC’s order noted that while the company hadn’t filed reports in years and its phone number doesn’t work, “social media accounts may be engaged in coordinated attempt to artificially influence” its share price. SpectraScience volume surpassed 3.5 billion shares on a single day in late January as the stock surged 167%.

Game Stop (GME) last at $108 has Mar.19  $800 call options that are bid $6.85 with open interest of 18289. Crazy, fing nuts - but what do I know.

REALLY!😖

Notes today: 

• Rates are getting interesting. An unsuccessful auction of seven-year Treasuries didn’t help.

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 

• U.S. employment grew by 11.8 million from December 2000 to December 2020. The gain was due to increased employment of people age 60 and older. 

• Costco, ahead of Sanders: the US second-largest retailer is adopting a $16 minimum wage for its 180,000 employees next week.
• In the coming days, I will be working with my colleagues in the Senate to move forward with an amendment to take tax deductions away from large, profitable corporations that don’t pay workers at least $15 an hour and to provide small businesses with the incentives they need to raise wages,” Sanders said in a statement.

 

 Quick Overview is up to date

Rats are getting interesting:

 Notes today:

• Goldman Sachs thinks the US is about to grow at around 7%, which would be the fastest pace in years - and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is nowhere near pulling back its economic support. 

• Newhome sales rose at an annual rate of 923,000 in January  - up 19% YoY That was 4.3% above the upwardly revised pace of 885,000 in December.

 

Charlie Munger on Learning etc..

" Without the method of learning, you're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest."

Until the Fed’s Powell reassured markets there was a bit of concern about rising rates. Look at a long term chart of long-term bonds – concerning?

Notes today:

• The Case-Shiller index rose 10.4% in December - the biggest surge since 2014.Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle are leading gains. 

• Conference board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.3 from 88.9 in January. 

• The MyPillow libertarian dude Mike Lindell’s complaining he is losing money ($65M) amid Dominion lawsuits. 

• Some air is coming out of Tesla, now below the price when it was included in the S&P.  

 Twitter without Trump is surging to a record - remarkable.

 BP.  Looks as if Brexit hasn’t diminished the pound badly – so far..

 Dow Theory

 SOX Semiconductor Index

 Biotech ETF (BTK)

 Shipping: Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY.K)

 BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index

 Nikkei P&F

S&P Vix Ratio ROC - back in range..

 DJIA P&F

 Canadian $ P&F

 Cotton P&F

 Sugar P&F

Very unfortunate that the ICE is charging an arm and leg for quotes..👎

 Soybeans P&F

 Copper P&F

Notes today:

The Lincoln Project

AOC  raised $4M for Texas emergency aid

@BetoORourke  raised $1M for Texas emergency aid

@tedcruz  flew to Cancun

• Why we can fly helicopters on Mars and have blackouts in Texas? because the first is run by scientists and the second by Republicans. 

• Sweden, which is known for its colder climate, has offered the Lone Star State (Republicans) some advice to keep the wings moving no matter how harsh the weather - and it only requires 'the right gear.' Read this zerohedge

• Much of the country was entertained by watching Ted Cruz squirm as he tried to explain why he had absconded Texas for a beach resort in Cancun. Remind me, how did this  dude vote for Hurricane Sandy emergency aid again? Reports have it that Texans are now getting energy bills in the thousands..$1000 a day -WTF

• Russia said it found the world’s first cases ofthe H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.

• JUST IN: AG Nominee Merrick Garland opening statement for confirmation hearing Monday. Calls 1-6 "a heinous attack" and says he'll prosecute "white supremacists & others" involved. 👍👍

Couple of charts to peruse..

 NYSE Advance decline line

NASDAQ Advance decline line

NYSE Volume advance decline line

 Quick Overview is up to date

BTW: I have listened to Steve Freed of ADM and his grain comments for well over 30 years - and found it well worth my time. (Also: this comment is totally unsolicited - he does not even know I'm making it)

Notes Today:

• Murmurs of inflation are ongoing. However, the Fed still sees the risk of inflation to the downside; they think a rate that’s too low is more likely than one that’s too high.

• Aren’t January 6^th insurrectionists on the no-fly list? But, but, it's all my kid's fault!

• A 2011 Texas investigation after similar cold weather-related disruptions proved the need to harden energy infrastructure against freezing temps. Texas never did anything about it...

• No Abbott, it’s not the windmills – it’s you and your republicans. 

• U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 861,000 last week, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 848,000 in the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 64,000 to 4.49 million.

• The average Mortgage Rate in U.S for a 30-year fixed loan was 2.81%, up from 2.73% last week and the highest since November,

• Texas has halted sales of natural gas outside the state. Could be a problem with the Constitution's Commerce Clause.

 Bloomberg: It turns out that wild fluctuations in polar airflow that many experts blame on  climate change are bad for the industry most responsible for causing it. U.S. oil production has plunged by more than 2 million barrels a day as the coldest weather in 30 years wreaks havoc on key producing states that rarely have to deal with frigid Arctic blasts. Indeed, the unforgiving weather has pushed natural gas prices at one trading hub up 24,000% from just a week ago, halting fracking and even Amazon. Renewable sources also are in trouble, as are power companies. Don’t understand how a hotter planet can be responsible for bone-chilling cold? This is how the science works. —David E. Rovella

Hey Musk and Ellison, are you two dudes moving out of Texas and back to California where the weather is nice and the lights are on? Perhaps paying a bit in taxes to keep the lights on – not such a bad idea.

 Today's front page of the NY Daily News

 By kaltoons

 Quick Overview  is up to date.

 Trump acquitted  .. Sad! Tragic!

" The President was guilty of everything he was accused of...which is why I voted to acquit" Jon Stewart

 Persistent 50-year decline in wages. Share of GDP.

 Notes Today: 

• It seems that the attempted Silver short squeeze by the Reddit crowd has at least temporarily failed. Yet, rising demand as the economy picks up steam may drive prices higher in the long run.

 

• QuickOverview is up to date. 

• Guardian: The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit.

•  Bloomberg: Commodities have been on a tear since March and have surged to the highest level in more than six years, with rallies in everything from iron ore to soybeans, copper, and corn. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Ospraie Management LLC are among institutions that have endorsed raw materials as investment plays and predict they have more room to climb.

Notes Today: 

• Adjusting for the people that have dropped out of the labor force, by choice or obligation, the unemployment rate is around 9.5%,” estimated lead U.S. economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics. 

• Consumer credit in the United States increased by $9.73 billion in December of 2020 after rising by a downwardly revised $13.93 billion in the previous month, 

• Bloomberg: By the end of last year, more than 30% of U.S. homeowners were considered equity-rich -- meaning their property was worth twice as much as the underlying mortgage, a report showed. 

• Exxon Mobil posted its first annual loss in at least 40 years. 

• South Korea returned to first place in the latest Bloomberg Innovation Index, while the U.S. dropped out of a top 10 that features a cluster of European countries
  
  
  

 

 

• Guardian: The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.

• President Biden is supposedly on pace to save the U.S.  $124m this year by just not golfing. 

Fox has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight” one day after the host was named in a multibillion dollar defamation lawsuit against the network and its parent company.👍😂

Silver is starting the week higher as the reddit crowd piles in. Dealers said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.

 How much you'll need to earn before you purchase a home.

 US Corn sales (via Thomas Elder Markets)

USDA: Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 49.4 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the United States. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast higher.

The ICE and cotton:

Effective with the start of trading for trade date Friday, January 29, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months will revert to 3 cents per pound (300 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month. 

Effective with the start of trading for Monday, February 1, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months per pound (400 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month.

 

Compensation in private industry and state and local government, 3-month percent change:

It's maybe only a matter of time before the WallStreetBets crowd come after the soybean and corn market. The thing is: corn and soybeans may have a bullish story backing things up.  
For solid fundamental analysis listen to Steve Freed of ADM.