Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP fell 0.2% QoQ and down 3.8% YoY.

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 50.0 to 46.1

  • ADP said the U.S. lost 254,000 private-sector jobs in September

  • Canada’s GDP was unchanged in July and down 4.6% YoY

  • Industrial output in Japan rose 1.8% in August

  • Germany's unemployment rate improved from 8.3% to 8.2% in September.

  • The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.

  • The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected

  • The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 338.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels
    Refinery use fell from 85.6% to 84.6%
    Gasoline demand rose 5.4% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 9.2% YoY.

  • Barclays Capital expects world Sugar use to outpace production by 8.1 million tons in 2009-2010

  • (Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, is the weakest in more than three decades, threatening farm output in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar

  • Yum Brands Inc.'s (YUM) board approved an 11% dividend increase andauthorized $300 million of share repurchase.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The S&P & Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices rose 1.6% in July and fell 13.3% YoY

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell from 54.5 to 53.1 in September

  • U.K. GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter and down 5.5% YoY

  • Consumer confidence in Canada rose from 88.4 to 90.9 in September

  • (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the chocolate ingredient, may decline by as much as 15 percent next season

Monday, September 28, 2009

Baltic Dry to Jump on Chinese Bulk Demand, Cosco Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the main measure of shipping costs for commodities, may surge more than 80 percent by the end of the year on increased demand for shipments to China, according China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co.

Quick Overview

  • (WSJ) The White House is close to committing up to $35 billion to help housing agencies provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families.

  • Japan's consumer price index fell 2.4%, the fastest pace on record

  • The USDA said there were 66.626 million head of hogs and pigs as of September 1st, down 2.3% YoY

  • The U.S. Grains Council sees smaller Chinese corn crop than USDA due to this year's drought. Based on the survey they estimate 2009 Chinese production down 9.7% YoY

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Money figures show there's trouble ahead The overwhelming fact is that private spending has slumped in the deficit countries of the Anglosphere, Club Med, and East Europe but has not risen enough in the surplus countries (East Asia and Germany) to compensate. Excess capacity remains near post-war highs across the world.

Yet hawks are already stamping feet at key central banks.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Quick Overview

  • (WSJ) The G-20 is near an agreement that would require members to submit economic policies to a type of "peer review." The group also will announce that the G-20 will eclipse the G-8.

  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.4% in August.

  • U.S. home sales were at an annual rate of 429,000 in August, up 0.7% from July's pace.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.7 to 73.5 in September .

  • The USDA said beef production totaled 2.18 billion pounds in August, down 4% YoY.

  • The USDA said Pork production totaled 1.87 billion pounds in August, up 4% YoY .

  • The global sugar deficit in the year starting October 1 may be 8.3 million tons, compared with a June estimate of 5.1 million tons, Switzerland-based sugar broker Kingsman SA said.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 21,000 last week to 530,000

  • U.S. existing home sales (5.10 million units) fell 2.7% MoM.

  • U.S. inventory of homes represents an 8.5 month supply at the current sales pace.

  • India will extend authorization to import duty-free white sugar until the middle of next year to fill the supply gap.

  • Brazil's center-south 2009/10 sugar output should fall 600,000 tonnes from July's estimate as excess rains have reduced expected cane yields, Job Economia analysts said Wednesday.

  • Brazil's 2009-10 center-south sugar cane crush is projected at 529.5 millionmetric tons, down from an April estimate of 550 million tons, the SugarcaneIndustries Association, or Unica, said Thursday.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. mortgage applications rose 12.8% last week.

  • Industrial orders in the EU rose 1.6% MoM, but fell 24.9% YoY

  • Britain's economy may be emerging from recession, but with bank lending still weak and unemployment rising "there could be false dawns," the Bank of England said

  • Obama is calling on the world to end massive government subsidies that encourage the use of fossil fuels blamed for global warming.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels to 335.6 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 5.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 1.5 million barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 86.9% to 85.6%
    Gasoline demand rose 4.5% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 8.1% YoY

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The dollar resumed its broad sell-off, dipping under ¥91 and coming close to its fresh 12-month low versus the euro.

  • The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing was unchanged in September at +14

  • U.S. single family home prices rose 0.3% in July, but fell 4.2% YoY.

  • Obama said the U.S. is determined to tackle global warming at a year-end summit.

  • Cooler temps will build for late next weekend in the U.S. Midwest, but at this point most forecasters suggest it will not bring a crop threatening frost.

  • Airbus forecast for world commercial aircraft sales sees a more than a doubling in demand that will require 25,000 planes at a cost of US$3.1 trillion, adding that Asian and emerging market will produce more low cost carrier demand by 2029.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in August

  • The USDA said there were 9.882 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1st, down 1.2% YoY

  • The USDA said there were 492,529 acres of commercial orange trees in Florida, down 1% YoY

Friday, September 18, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Canada’s wholesale sales rose 2.8% in July to C$41.7 billion

  • China buys another 6.7 million bushels of US soybeans. Analyst says recent frost cut 110 mln bu from China's soy crop.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

New building cancellations to top 40% of current dry bulk orderbook says National Bank of Greece
But, new building cancellations will reach about 40% of the total orderbook sayd NBG, which means that 100 million dwt will never reach the water. This, coupled with an estimated 70 million dwt of scrapping of older tonnage, could allow for a gradual recovery of dry bulk usage, close to the ten year average of 87% of available hiring days. Should this scenario materialize, dry bulk rates will drop below 2,000 points during 2010 and recover higher than 3,000 points during 2011, which could be deemed as very satisfactory, should one consider the current imbalance in the market.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. housing starts rose 1.5% from July's pace

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 545,000

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 4.2 to 14.1

  • Construction output in the EU fell 1.1% MoM and 11.1% YoY

  • FedEx's CEO said he sees "encouraging signs" that the recession has ended

  • University of Illinois economists project net farm operator returns for 2009 at minus $8 per acre for corn and minus $15 per acre for soybeans, the first negative returns for the decades beginning 1990 and 2000.

  • Maersk Line has announced a rate increases on its eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea services to west Africa of US$200 per TEU and $360 per FEU for both dry and reefer containers from October 1.

  • Informa estimates 2010-11 US Winter Wheat area At 41.6M acres, down from 43.4 million in 2009-10

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Kinross Says Gold Industry Faces Reserve Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- Kinross Gold Corp., Canada’s third- largest producer of the precious metal, said the gold industry is facing a crisis of declining reserves as investor demand outpaces supply.

“We may be in the midst of a perfect storm in terms of price and industry dynamics,” Tye Burt, chief executive officer of the Toronto-based company, said at a conference in Denver today. “Globally production has been in decline since the peak of 81 million ounces in 2001 to 77 million ounces last year, and we see that decline continuing long term.”

Quick Overview

  • U.S . Industrial production rose 0.8% in August -- better than expected.

  • U.S. Capacity utilization was at 69.6% -- down from 77.6% YoY.

  • MoM the U.K. unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8%

  • YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 0.6% in August

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 4.7 million barrels to 332.8 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 500,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 200,000 barrels
    Refinery use fell from 87.2% to 86.9%.
    Gasoline demand rose 3.5% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 6.8% YoY

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Quick Overview

  • (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s has probably ended, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce the unemployment rate.

  • US retail sales rose 2.7% in August better than expected and helped by the car rebate program.

  • The New York Federal Reserve’s regional index of manufacturing rose from 12.08 to 18.88 in September

  • YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 1.6% in August

  • Volkswagen has unveiled its answer to the recession at The Frankfurt Motor Show the L1 a 180 mile per gallon tandem two-seater hybrid car.

  • Soybean/Corn futures are supported by frost threats this morning

  • (FT) Central banks are set to become net buyers of gold this year for the first time since 1998, according to GFMS, the metals consultancy.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Quick Overview

  • China called for talks over its trade quarrel with the U.S. in a sign the dispute may be containable.

  • EU industrial production fell 0.2% in July and 14.7% YoY

  • The ICO’s August coffee report kept its estimate of 2008-2009 world production at 127 million bags, but raised its estimate of 2008 world consumption from 128.4 to 130.0 million bags.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

A 20-year-old Styrian (Austria) was slapped with a 50 Euros fine when he farted as he talked to cops.

Lehman is a footnote in the great East-West globalisation crisis
As my colleague Jeremy Warner puts it, Lehman no more caused the economic convulsions of the last year than the assassination of an Austrian prince caused the First World War. There was the little matter of a rising Germany then, and a rising China now. Both scrambled the international system, albeit in different ways.

China Government ‘Strongly Opposes’ U.S. Tire Tariff Imposition
“By taking this unprecedented action, the Obama administration is now at odds with its own public statements about refraining from increasing tariffs,” Vic DeIorio, executive vice president of GITI Tire in the U.S., said in a statement. “This decision will cost many more American jobs than it will create.”

Friday, September 11, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.5% in July

  • U.S. Inventories fell 1.4% in July

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 65.7 to 70.2 in September

  • YoY China's industrial Production rose 12.3%

  • YoY India’s industrial production rose 6.8%.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was raised from 1.621 to 1.635 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were raised from 210 to 220 million bushels.
    Wheat unchanged at 743 million bushels.
    Sugar was raised from 709,000 to 844,000 tons.
    Cotton unchanged at 5.6 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 141 to 139 million tons.
    Soybeans were raised from 50.3 to 50.5 million tons.
    Wheat was raised from 184 to 187 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 57 to 56 million tons.

  • The USDA lowered the estimate of China's 2009-2010 corn crop from 162.5 to 160.0 million tons because of draught

USDA Report

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 26,000 last week to 550,000 -- less than expected.

  • U.S. exports rose $2.7 billion in July while imports rose $7.2 billion.

  • (Reuters) - China will unswervingly apply its policy mix of massive government spending and loose money because its economic recovery remains fragile, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

  • Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% in August,

  • Canada’s exports rose 3.3% in July while imports rose 8.3%.

  • UK kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 5.9 million barrels last week to 337.5 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 2.1 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
    Refinery use was 87.2% of capacity.
    Gasoline demand rose 2.2% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 5.6% YoY.

  • Japan's machinery orders fell 9.3% in July

  • Swine flu can infect cells deeper in the lungs than seasonal flu, making people who catch it more likely to develop serious complications, research suggests.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of U.S. mortgage applications rose 17% last week

  • Canada's housing starts rose 12% in August

  • Consumer confidence in the U.K. rose from 61 to 63 in August

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

The Great Cop-Out
… The banks only know for sure whether they have made a profit on a loan, transaction or investment when they get the capital back. That can take 30 years.”

Quick Overview

  • U.K. manufacturing output rose 0.9% in July.

  • Brazil's estimates the 2009-2010 coffee crop at 39 million bags, down from 46 million bags YoY.

  • Gold prices hit 1000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months.

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, and -0.6pc in Germany.

Friday, September 04, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.7% -- the number was a little less than expected.

  • Canada unemployment rate rose from 8.6% to 8.7% in August --better than expected.

Thursday, September 03, 2009

Indian Sugar Fears Rain, Frost After Monsoon Heat
India's cane crop, which started small after years of cheap government purchase prices and withered further this summer by poor rain, faces two more hurdles that could yet trigger another flurry of imports, extending a rally that has doubled sugar prices this year to a 28-year high.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services rose from 46.4 to 48.4 in August

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 570,000

  • Services index in the U.K. rose from 53.2 to 54.1 in August

  • Services index in Australia rose from 44.1 to 48.0 in August

  • Retail sales in the EU rose 0.2% in July.

  • Purchasing Managers Index in the EU rose from 50.0 to 50.4 in August

  • Informa's September guess:
  • 13.010 billion bushels for corn
  • 3.305 billion for beans
  • corn yield of 162.6 bushels per acre
  • bean yield of 43.1.

  • In August the USDA estimated:
  • corn crop at 12.761 billion with a yield of 159.5
  • bean crop of 3.199 billion with a 41.7 yield.

  • Weather risk says the new run of the 12z gfs weather model is suggesting a wide spread frost sept. 17,18,19 time period .

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. factory orders rose 1.3%.

  • YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.9% in Q2. The number of hours worked fell 7.2% and unit labor costs fell 1.2%.

  • U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.2% last week.

  • GDP in the EU fell 0.2% in Q2

  • Producer prices in the EU fell 1.0% MoM and 8.4% YoY

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 343.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 3.0 million barrels to 205.1 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil are unchanged..
    Refinery use rose from 84.1% to 87.2%.
    Gasoline demand rose 0.5%
    Distillate demand fell 7.3%

  • BP the U.K. energy giant said it has made a "giant" oil discovery in a deep well drilled in U.S. waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • The shortfall in Russia's grain production due to drought is expected to amount to 13 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index rose from 48.9 to 52.9 in August

  • The National Association of Realtor's index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in July and 12% YoY

  • U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM and 10.5% YoY.

  • EU unemployment -rose from 8.9% to 9.0% in July

  • U.K. manufacturing fell from 50.2 to 49.7 in August

  • India may remove the limit of 1 million metric tons onwhite sugar imports to improve supply

  • Pakistan bought 75,000 tons of white sugar from Dubai for $638 a ton, including freight costs