Friday, February 26, 2021

Notes today:

 Notes today:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has Personal income increasing  10.0 percent (monthly rate) while consumer spending increased 2.4 percent in January as provisions of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act enacted on December 27, 2020, began to take effect. 

Bloomberg: SEC Suspends Trading in 15 Stocks That Got Hyped on Social Media:

The SEC’s order noted that while the company hadn’t filed reports in years and its phone number doesn’t work, “social media accounts may be engaged in coordinated attempt to artificially influence” its share price. SpectraScience volume surpassed 3.5 billion shares on a single day in late January as the stock surged 167%.

Game Stop (GME) last at $108 has Mar.19  $800 call options that are bid $6.85 with open interest of 18289. Crazy, fing nuts - but what do I know.


Thursday, February 25, 2021

Notes today: 

  • Rates are getting interesting. An unsuccessful auction of seven-year Treasuries didn’t help.

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 

  • U.S. employment grew by 11.8 million from December 2000 to December 2020. The gain was due to increased employment of people age 60 and older. 

  • Costco, ahead of Sanders: the US second-largest retailer is adopting a $16 minimum wage for its 180,000 employees next week.
  • In the coming days, I will be working with my colleagues in the Senate to move forward with an amendment to take tax deductions away from large, profitable corporations that don’t pay workers at least $15 an hour and to provide small businesses with the incentives they need to raise wages,” Sanders said in a statement.


 Quick Overview is up to date

Rats are getting interesting:

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

 Notes today:

  • Goldman Sachs thinks the US is about to grow at around 7%, which would be the fastest pace in years - and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is nowhere near pulling back its economic support. 

  • Newhome sales rose at an annual rate of 923,000 in January  - up 19% YoY That was 4.3% above the upwardly revised pace of 885,000 in December.


Charlie Munger on Learning etc..

" Without the method of learning, you're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest."

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Until the Fed’s Powell reassured markets there was a bit of concern about rising rates. Look at a long term chart of long-term bonds – concerning?

Notes today:
  • The Case-Shiller index rose 10.4% in December - the biggest surge since 2014.Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle are leading gains. 
  • Conference board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.3 from 88.9 in January. 

  • The MyPillow libertarian dude Mike Lindell’s complaining he is losing money ($65M) amid Dominion lawsuits. 

  • Some air is coming out of Tesla, now below the price when it was included in the S&P.  

Saturday, February 20, 2021

S&P Vix Ratio ROC - back in range..


 Canadian $ P&F

 Cotton P&F

 Sugar P&F

Very unfortunate that the ICE is charging an arm and leg for quotes..👎

 Soybeans P&F

 Copper P&F

Notes today:

  • The Lincoln Project
  • AOC  raised $4M for Texas emergency aid
  • @BetoORourke  raised $1M for Texas emergency aid
  • @tedcruz  flew to Cancun
    • Why we can fly helicopters on Mars and have blackouts in Texas? because the first is run by scientists and the second by Republicans. 
    • Sweden, which is known for its colder climate, has offered the Lone Star State (Republicans) some advice to keep the wings moving no matter how harsh the weather - and it only requires 'the right gear.' Read this zerohedge

    • Much of the country was entertained by watching Ted Cruz squirm as he tried to explain why he had absconded Texas for a beach resort in Cancun. Remind me, how did this  dude vote for Hurricane Sandy emergency aid again? Reports have it that Texans are now getting energy bills in the thousands..$1000 a day -WTF

    • Russia said it found the world’s first cases ofthe H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.
    • JUST IN: AG Nominee Merrick Garland opening statement for confirmation hearing Monday. Calls 1-6 "a heinous attack" and says he'll prosecute "white supremacists & others" involved. 👍👍

    Couple of charts to peruse..

     NYSE Advance decline line

    NASDAQ Advance decline line

    NYSE Volume advance decline line

    Friday, February 19, 2021

     Quick Overview is up to date

    BTW: I have listened to Steve Freed of ADM and his grain comments for well over 30 years - and found it well worth my time. (Also: this comment is totally unsolicited - he does not even know I'm making it)

    Thursday, February 18, 2021

    Notes Today:

    • Murmurs of inflation are ongoing. However, the Fed still sees the risk of inflation to the downside; they think a rate that’s too low is more likely than one that’s too high.

    • Aren’t January 6th insurrectionists on the no-fly list? But, but, it's all my kid's fault!

    • A 2011 Texas investigation after similar cold weather-related disruptions proved the need to harden energy infrastructure against freezing temps. Texas never did anything about it...
    • No Abbott, it’s not the windmills – it’s you and your republicans. 
    • U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 861,000 last week, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 848,000 in the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 64,000 to 4.49 million.
    • The average Mortgage Rate in U.S for a 30-year fixed loan was 2.81%, up from 2.73% last week and the highest since November,
    • Texas has halted sales of natural gas outside the state. Could be a problem with the Constitution's Commerce Clause.

    Tuesday, February 16, 2021

     Bloomberg: It turns out that wild fluctuations in polar airflow that many experts blame on  climate change are bad for the industry most responsible for causing it. U.S. oil production has plunged by more than 2 million barrels a day as the coldest weather in 30 years wreaks havoc on key producing states that rarely have to deal with frigid Arctic blasts. Indeed, the unforgiving weather has pushed natural gas prices at one trading hub up 24,000% from just a week ago, halting fracking and even Amazon. Renewable sources also are in trouble, as are power companies. Don’t understand how a hotter planet can be responsible for bone-chilling cold? This is how the science works. —David E. Rovella

    Hey Musk and Ellison, are you two dudes moving out of Texas and back to California where the weather is nice and the lights are on? Perhaps paying a bit in taxes to keep the lights on – not such a bad idea.

    Sunday, February 14, 2021

    Saturday, February 13, 2021

     By kaltoons

     Quick Overview  is up to date.

     Trump acquitted  .. Sad! Tragic!

    " The President was guilty of everything he was accused of...which is why I voted to acquit" Jon Stewart

     Persistent 50-year decline in wages. Share of GDP.

    Sunday, February 07, 2021

     Notes Today: 

    • It seems that the attempted Silver short squeeze by the Reddit crowd has at least temporarily failed. Yet, rising demand as the economy picks up steam may drive prices higher in the long run.


    • Guardian: The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit.
    •  Bloomberg: Commodities have been on a tear since March and have surged to the highest level in more than six years, with rallies in everything from iron ore to soybeans, copper, and corn. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Ospraie Management LLC are among institutions that have endorsed raw materials as investment plays and predict they have more room to climb.

    Saturday, February 06, 2021

    Notes Today: 

    • Adjusting for the people that have dropped out of the labor force, by choice or obligation, the unemployment rate is around 9.5%,” estimated lead U.S. economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics. 

    • Bloomberg: By the end of last year, more than 30% of U.S. homeowners were considered equity-rich -- meaning their property was worth twice as much as the underlying mortgage, a report showed. 

    • Exxon Mobil posted its first annual loss in at least 40 years. 

    • South Korea returned to first place in the latest Bloomberg Innovation Index, while the U.S. dropped out of a top 10 that features a cluster of European countries



    • Guardian: The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.
    • President Biden is supposedly on pace to save the U.S.  $124m this year by just not golfing. 

    Fox has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight” one day after the host was named in a multibillion dollar defamation lawsuit against the network and its parent company.👍😂

    Sunday, January 31, 2021

    Silver is starting the week higher as the reddit crowd piles in. Dealers said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.

     How much you'll need to earn before you purchase a home.

     US Corn sales (via Thomas Elder Markets)

    Friday, January 29, 2021

    USDA: Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 49.4 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the United States. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast higher.

    The ICE and cotton:

    Effective with the start of trading for trade date Friday, January 29, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months will revert to 3 cents per pound (300 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month. 

    Effective with the start of trading for Monday, February 1, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months per pound (400 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month.


    Compensation in private industry and state and local government, 3-month percent change:

    Thursday, January 28, 2021

    It's maybe only a matter of time before the WallStreetBets crowd come after the soybean and corn market. The thing is: corn and soybeans may have a bullish story backing things up.  
    For solid fundamental analysis listen to Steve Freed of ADM.

    Wednesday, January 27, 2021

     Notes Today: 

    • The Fed left interest rate unchanged and stuck with the current pace of bond-buying. 

    • Gold is having its worst January performance since 2011. 

    • Fed's Powell: Don't blame us for GameStop frenzy.

    • Bloomberg: WallStreetBets, fueling a frenzy of retail trading, briefly turned itself off to new users Wednesday after a deluge of new participants raised concerns about its ability to moderate content, a notice on the website said. 

    • Bloomberg: The world’s first exchange-traded fund solely for psychedelic-drug companies will debut this week in Toronto, a reflection of the investment industry’s desire to capitalize on rising interest in prospective mental health treatments using the drugs. The Horizons Psychedelic Stock Index ETF, listed as PSYK, is expected to start trading Wednesday on the NEO Exchange. 

    • Australia says “inevitable” that Google will have to pay for news. 

    • Oklahoma wants to return its $2 Million Stockpile of Hydroxychloroquine. The state bought over a million pills last year after Trump pushed, with 0 evidence, the use of the drug as a COVID-19 treatment. 

    • Remarkably busy with alternate history - Deborah Birx saw the president presenting graphs she never made.
    • New Zealand said it would likely keep its borders closed to the world through most of 2021.
    • Robert Reich: Spare me the Republican party’s fake outrage about the deficit. The GOP’s tax cut for the rich added $1,900,000,000,000 to the debt. When billionaires and corporations are getting a payout, the GOP couldn’t care less about the national debt.
    • Unilever (UL):The uses of this unique technology are almost limitless,” says Unilever’s Vice President for Science & Technology, Unilever Homecare, Dr Jon Hague, including tackling some of the biggest societal and environmental challenges of the 21st century where microbial biofilms are commonplace.



    Friday, January 22, 2021

    Notes Today:

    • Market Watch: China overtook the U.S. as the world’s top destination for new foreign direct investment last year, as the COVID-19 pandemic amplifies an eastward shift in the center of gravity of the global economy.
    • New investments by overseas businesses into the U.S., which for decades held the No. 1 spot, fell 49% in 2020, according to U.N. figures released Sunday, as the country struggled to curb the spread of the new coronavirus and economic output slumped.
    • China, long ranked No. 2, saw direct investments by foreign companies climb 4%, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said. Beijing used strict lockdowns to largely contain COVID-19 after the disease first emerged in a central Chinese city, and China’s gross domestic product grew even as most other major economies contracted last year.

    • The notable drop-off in Chinese iron ore demand may be behind AUD’s recent bit of weakness.
    • The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped to 59.1 in January of 2021 from 58.3 in December and well above market forecasts of 56.5.

    • Sales of previously owned houses in the US rose 0.7% MoM to 6.76 million units in December of 2020, beating market forecasts of 6.55 million. The median existing-home price was $309,800, up 12.9% YoY

    • Bloomberg: “I have received calls from every building with Trump on it in the city trying to get it removed,” Bailey said. “Over time in New York, Donald Trump has not been very popular and New York is about money, so having Trump’s name on the building reduces its value.” 
    • Bloomberg: Trump’s campaign paid more than $2.7million over two years to individuals and firms that organized the Jan. 6 rally that led to rioters storming the U.S. Capitol, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. 

    • AT&T gains on report of talks to sell minority DirecTV stake to TPG. T is reporting Wednesday morning. (I enjoyed HBO Max the Flight Attendant)

    • A hacker hacked sensitive information from Intel’s website, prompting the company to report the numbers earlier than planned. Hopefully Pat Gelsinger can get INTC’s act together – I’m expecting the answer to be yes. 

    •  MoM Retail sales in Australia fell 4.2% 

    • Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 In December. 

    • New Zealand inflation running at 1.4% currently. 

    • (MW) Biden’s plan to make community college free and four-year public college tuition-free for students from households earning $125,000 or less would increase Americans’ disposable income by $61 billion, according to an analysis published this week by the Campaign for Free College Tuition and Rise, an advocacy organization focused on college affordability and other youth and student issues. 

    Wednesday, January 20, 2021

    The best first-day reaction to an elected president’s inauguration since Jan. 20 became the official start in 1937. (Bloomberg)

     Good Riddance !

    Saturday, January 16, 2021

    Quick Overview is up to date

    Notes Today: 

    • Looks like another $1400 may be coming to some 150 million Americans - encouraging additional speculation - for some. 

    • Bloomberg: Norway expressed increasing concern about the safety of the Pfizer Inc. vaccine on elderly people with serious underlying health conditions after raising an estimate of the number who died after receiving inoculations to 29.
    • Bloomberg: The Treasury market’s bears had better take notice: There’s a wall of global cash poised to swoop in and buy, likely limiting the upside in yields. 

    • A new ETF ARK Space Exploration ETF (ARXX) is getting ready to launch and creating buzz. ARK's will primarily track companies engaged in space exploration and innovation.
    • The Port of Long Beach reported its busiest year in 2020. IT moved a record 8.1 million TEUs in 2020 despite facing headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing trade war with China. 

    • FT: The cost of shipping goods from China to Europe has more than tripled in the past eight weeks as a shortage of empty containers stemming from Covid-19 disrupts global trade

    • The China Containerized Freight Index continues higher

    Wednesday, January 13, 2021

    Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed model) is up to date, and ready for your perusal.

    Tuesday, January 12, 2021


    Notes Today: 

    • Twitter has suspended 70,000+ accounts linked to QAnon. 

    • Google suspends Trump's YouTube account and  disables comments. 

    • The U.S. trade deficit jumped to $68.1 billion in November, the highest monthly deficit in 14 years... 

    • Soybeans are above $14 per bushel for the first time since June 2014 on shrinking global supplies and strong demand. If Brazil and Argentine stay dry – there is no telling how high.  (See below)

    • McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses. 

    • SouthKorea Unemployment Rate at 4.6%, above expectations (3.9%).

    Long term look at soybeans & USDA report today;