Notes today:

• US 12 hours away from shutdown. If  Congress doesn’t reach an agreement by midnight Saturday, lines will be longer at airports, and national parks including Joshua Tree will close..

• While current financial conditions  - the tightest this year.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Notes today:

• The euro zone’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.3% in September, down from 5.2% in August and its lowest rate in almost two years. 

• With two days left before a likely US government shutdown, White House staff are getting guidance about how they will be affected by a government shutdown.

• Swiss glaciers have lost 10% of their volume in just two years..

• Trump’s civil-fraud trial will probably begin next Monday, after an appeals court in New York rejected his lawsuit.

• The 1.4bn, users of the Windows operating system are about  to get a dose of cutting-edge AI. MSFT (trailing 12 month) ROE = 38.82 ROA= 18.63

 

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

•  Michigan woman pulled from outhouse toilet  
• after climbing in for Apple watch. “She was in the muck, if you will,” said a Michigan state police spokesman, Derrick Carroll, to the Detroit Free Press.
•  China it seems is not quite quitting the iPhone. The new iPhones sold out on China’s Tmall within a minute of becoming available, the site’s operator, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., said on Monday. 

• US Housing affordability declined to lowest level on record.
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• The CEO of Chevron predicts that oil will soon surpass $100 per barrel.
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How Faking Videos Got So Easy and Why It’s a Threat

Now that artificial intelligence allows anyone with a smartphone to conjure up lifelike images and sound from seemingly nothing, it’s getting harder to tell if what you see and hear online is reality or fiction. 

 

Notes Today: 

• Elon Musk’s Neuralink approved to recruit humans for brain-implant trial..

• American firms in China are the gloomiest they’ve been in decades about the prospect of doing business in the Asian nation over the next few years as geopolitical tensions and the slowing economy hurt sentiment.

• Bloomberg: Despite wins against the US Securities and Exchange Commission and new Bitcoin ETF filings, investors withdrew nearly half a billion dollars from cryptocurrency products over the last nine weeks. 

• The   World’s top 10 Polluters

 

• UAW Chief Fain Rejects 21% Pay Increase Offer as a ‘No-Go’

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

Notes Today: 

Toyota's Solid-State Batteries  Will Offer Over 900 Miles On A Single Charge

• Toyota has over 1,000 patents in solid-state battery research
• First-gen solid-state batteries will allow up to 745 miles of range
• Second-gen solid-state batteries will push this to 932 miles
• Expect charging times to also get better and faster..
•  Toyota versus Tesla chart
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•  “Despite the ongoing war, Ukrainian start-ups brought in more than $6 billion in revenue in 2022 — $542 million more than in 2021 — and have tripled in valuation since 2020,” according to an April 2023 report by Michał Kramarz, head of Google for Startups, Central and Eastern Europe. In a normal year, Ukraine was graduating 130,000 engineers — more than Germany and France.

• On this date in 1939, acting as the ally of Nazi Germany, the USSR invaded Poland, claiming that it was acting to protect national minorities and that the Polish state did not exist.        Timothy Snyder

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

The importance of handwriting is becoming better understood

Two and a half millennia ago, Socrates complained that writing would harm students.

 

S&p 500 new 52 week lows (no 52 week highs)

 

Notes today

• The fifth-largest economy on earth is suing the five biggest oil companies for their climate lies. Thisis a very big deal.

Oh great! another potential government shutdown forthcoming. What could go wrong?

• The US government contends that  Google’s search engine that controls almost 90% of online queries has paid billions of dollars to maintain a monopoly.
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• G7 governments to announce bans on Russian diamond imports.

• North Koreas Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin – new best friends.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney found that some of his Republican colleagues were, like him, disgusted by Trump’s behavior but dared not say so, not because of loyalty but because they feared for their personal safety and the safety of their families.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Notes Today: 

• The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% from July, the first acceleration in six months. The fastest month-on-month increase since mid-2022. 

• Britain’s economy shrunk by 0.5% in July, more than expected, the Office for National Statistics said. (Brexit effects continue). 

• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Paid Millions to Hackers in Recent Attack.
• Members of the hacking group are believed to be young adults, some as young as 19 years old, residing in the US and the UK, according to a person who has investigated multiple hacks by the group. 

• The EU will investigate Chinese state subsidies for electric vehicles, announced Ursula von der Leyen. 

• Economist figure of the day: 35m tonnes, the amount of green metal required each year if the world is to be carbon neutral in 2050. 

• 
  
  Washington is full of rats. These dogs are happy to help withthat - who knew?

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

Earth ‘well outside safe operating space for humanity’, scientists find.

Everyone wants more metals.

• By 2030 copper and nickel demand could rise by 50-70%, cobalt and neodymium by 150%, and graphite and lithium six- to seven-fold. 

Mexico surpasses China as the biggest US trading partner.

 September  11

Crops where the US is losing dominance:

• Brazil became the biggest corn exporter in 2023.
• The leader in soy exports a decade ago.
• Russia and the European Union have overtaken the US in wheat exports.
• And now Brazil is close to unseating the US to become the world’s biggest cotton exporter.

Inflation correlation? 

Notes Today: 

• Fuel shortage in Russia? Russia's Minister of Agriculture is forced to plead publicly to stop oil/gas exports, warning that food production in the country may soon collapse if fuel shortage continues.

 

• December Corn

• December Wheat

•  November Soybeans

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Although the market appears healthy, good vibes are  lacking and diverging from reality..

A new history argues that power depends on frightening people

How fear has shaped human affairs

S&P 500 Stocks at 52 week high

Instrument Name	Close	Highest	Symbol
Alphabet Ord Shs Class A	136.38	136.17	GOOGL.O
Constellation Energy	108.64	108.54	CEG.O
Eaton Ord Shs	236.13	234.81	ETN
Eli Lilly Ord Shs	586.46	573.23	LLY
Hess Ord Shs	160.52	160.44	HES
Marathon Petroleum	155.31	150.89	MPC
Phillips 66 Ord Shs	122.23	118.75	PSX
Walmart Ord Shs	163.77	163.47	WMT

Notes Today:

• Climate Change Could Drown China’s Food Security 
• China has a fifth of the world’s population but just 9 percent of its arable land and that bit is increasingly underwater.

• Dubai days are so hot that its beaches now stay open all night, with floodlights (Burning oil) illuminating the sand for beachgoers.
• Phoenix breaks heat record as city hits 110F for the 54th consecutive day..

• For $4,850, You Can Now Bypass TSA Lines at Atlanta’s Airport.
• There is an average of 9,728 planes carrying 1,270,406 passengers in the sky at any given time.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

• Tech firms’ shares fell further after reports that China had barred “more” employees at government-backed agencies and state companies from using iPhones. (Mini trade war with China – moving right along..)

• Current US Community spread # of Covid

• Not sure why anyone is surprised by Elon's Starlink interference in Ukraine. 
• Ukrainian presidential adviser says deaths of civilians ‘the price of a cocktail of ignorance and big ego’.

• ABC reports that the U.S. is now likely to send ATACMS to Ukraine.

• Hong Kong was hit by its heaviest rainfall since records began, causing widespread flooding.  158mm of rain fell in one hour.

• There's now just a 15% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs...

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Notes Today: 

• Texas paid bitcoin miner Riot $31.7 million to shut down during heat wave in August.    

• Utah officials sued over failure to save Great Salt Lake: ‘Trying to avert disaster’. Unless dire action is taken, the lake could decline beyond recognition within five years. 
• Already, the lake has lost 73% of its water and 60% of its surface area.

• ‘Totally devastating’: borrowers on the start of student loan repayment..Republicans forced an end to the pause in student debt repayments during the debt ceiling debate and student loans payments will begin again in October. In a second blow, the supreme court struck down Biden’s forgiveness plan earlier this summer.

• German economy gloomy - industrial orders fell by 11.7% in July

• To help Trump reelection, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s second- and third-largest producers, said they would continue to limit output. Saudi Arabia is constraining supply at around 25% below its declared maximum output.

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• China ordered officials at central government agencies not to use Apple's iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work or bring them into the office, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. 

•  Mexico supreme court decriminalizes abortion across country

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

According to our Fed model (Aka Dow Trend Earnings) the Dow Jones Industrials are currently overvalued by quite a  bit.

Fear? none!

• To point out the obvious: Rates need to come down and or earnings go up.
• 
  

Notes Today:

• Rolling Stones to release details of first album of original songs since 2005

• Heavy Rains Threaten China’s Rice Crop in Latest Weather Worry

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

There is no real alternative to the US stock market.

 

S&P 500 stocks at 52 week low (19)

 

S&P 500 stocks at 52 week high (31)