Friday, February 26, 2021

Notes today:

 Notes today:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has Personal income increasing  10.0 percent (monthly rate) while consumer spending increased 2.4 percent in January as provisions of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act enacted on December 27, 2020, began to take effect. 

Bloomberg: SEC Suspends Trading in 15 Stocks That Got Hyped on Social Media:

The SEC’s order noted that while the company hadn’t filed reports in years and its phone number doesn’t work, “social media accounts may be engaged in coordinated attempt to artificially influence” its share price. SpectraScience volume surpassed 3.5 billion shares on a single day in late January as the stock surged 167%.

Game Stop (GME) last at $108 has Mar.19  $800 call options that are bid $6.85 with open interest of 18289. Crazy, fing nuts - but what do I know.


Thursday, February 25, 2021

Notes today: 

  • Rates are getting interesting. An unsuccessful auction of seven-year Treasuries didn’t help.

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 

  • U.S. employment grew by 11.8 million from December 2000 to December 2020. The gain was due to increased employment of people age 60 and older. 

  • Costco, ahead of Sanders: the US second-largest retailer is adopting a $16 minimum wage for its 180,000 employees next week.
  • In the coming days, I will be working with my colleagues in the Senate to move forward with an amendment to take tax deductions away from large, profitable corporations that don’t pay workers at least $15 an hour and to provide small businesses with the incentives they need to raise wages,” Sanders said in a statement.


 Quick Overview is up to date

Rats are getting interesting:

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

 Notes today:

  • Goldman Sachs thinks the US is about to grow at around 7%, which would be the fastest pace in years - and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is nowhere near pulling back its economic support. 

  • Newhome sales rose at an annual rate of 923,000 in January  - up 19% YoY That was 4.3% above the upwardly revised pace of 885,000 in December.


Charlie Munger on Learning etc..

" Without the method of learning, you're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest."

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Until the Fed’s Powell reassured markets there was a bit of concern about rising rates. Look at a long term chart of long-term bonds – concerning?

Notes today:
  • The Case-Shiller index rose 10.4% in December - the biggest surge since 2014.Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle are leading gains. 
  • Conference board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.3 from 88.9 in January. 

  • The MyPillow libertarian dude Mike Lindell’s complaining he is losing money ($65M) amid Dominion lawsuits. 

  • Some air is coming out of Tesla, now below the price when it was included in the S&P.  

Saturday, February 20, 2021

S&P Vix Ratio ROC - back in range..


 Canadian $ P&F

 Cotton P&F

 Sugar P&F

Very unfortunate that the ICE is charging an arm and leg for quotes..👎

 Soybeans P&F

 Copper P&F

Notes today:

  • The Lincoln Project
  • AOC  raised $4M for Texas emergency aid
  • @BetoORourke  raised $1M for Texas emergency aid
  • @tedcruz  flew to Cancun
    • Why we can fly helicopters on Mars and have blackouts in Texas? because the first is run by scientists and the second by Republicans. 
    • Sweden, which is known for its colder climate, has offered the Lone Star State (Republicans) some advice to keep the wings moving no matter how harsh the weather - and it only requires 'the right gear.' Read this zerohedge

    • Much of the country was entertained by watching Ted Cruz squirm as he tried to explain why he had absconded Texas for a beach resort in Cancun. Remind me, how did this  dude vote for Hurricane Sandy emergency aid again? Reports have it that Texans are now getting energy bills in the thousands..$1000 a day -WTF

    • Russia said it found the world’s first cases ofthe H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.
    • JUST IN: AG Nominee Merrick Garland opening statement for confirmation hearing Monday. Calls 1-6 "a heinous attack" and says he'll prosecute "white supremacists & others" involved. 👍👍

    Couple of charts to peruse..

     NYSE Advance decline line

    NASDAQ Advance decline line

    NYSE Volume advance decline line

    Friday, February 19, 2021

     Quick Overview is up to date

    BTW: I have listened to Steve Freed of ADM and his grain comments for well over 30 years - and found it well worth my time. (Also: this comment is totally unsolicited - he does not even know I'm making it)

    Thursday, February 18, 2021

    Notes Today:

    • Murmurs of inflation are ongoing. However, the Fed still sees the risk of inflation to the downside; they think a rate that’s too low is more likely than one that’s too high.

    • Aren’t January 6th insurrectionists on the no-fly list? But, but, it's all my kid's fault!

    • A 2011 Texas investigation after similar cold weather-related disruptions proved the need to harden energy infrastructure against freezing temps. Texas never did anything about it...
    • No Abbott, it’s not the windmills – it’s you and your republicans. 
    • U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 861,000 last week, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 848,000 in the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 64,000 to 4.49 million.
    • The average Mortgage Rate in U.S for a 30-year fixed loan was 2.81%, up from 2.73% last week and the highest since November,
    • Texas has halted sales of natural gas outside the state. Could be a problem with the Constitution's Commerce Clause.

    Tuesday, February 16, 2021

     Bloomberg: It turns out that wild fluctuations in polar airflow that many experts blame on  climate change are bad for the industry most responsible for causing it. U.S. oil production has plunged by more than 2 million barrels a day as the coldest weather in 30 years wreaks havoc on key producing states that rarely have to deal with frigid Arctic blasts. Indeed, the unforgiving weather has pushed natural gas prices at one trading hub up 24,000% from just a week ago, halting fracking and even Amazon. Renewable sources also are in trouble, as are power companies. Don’t understand how a hotter planet can be responsible for bone-chilling cold? This is how the science works. —David E. Rovella

    Hey Musk and Ellison, are you two dudes moving out of Texas and back to California where the weather is nice and the lights are on? Perhaps paying a bit in taxes to keep the lights on – not such a bad idea.

    Sunday, February 14, 2021

    Saturday, February 13, 2021

     By kaltoons

     Quick Overview  is up to date.

     Trump acquitted  .. Sad! Tragic!

    " The President was guilty of everything he was accused of...which is why I voted to acquit" Jon Stewart

     Persistent 50-year decline in wages. Share of GDP.

    Sunday, February 07, 2021

     Notes Today: 

    • It seems that the attempted Silver short squeeze by the Reddit crowd has at least temporarily failed. Yet, rising demand as the economy picks up steam may drive prices higher in the long run.


    • Guardian: The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit.
    •  Bloomberg: Commodities have been on a tear since March and have surged to the highest level in more than six years, with rallies in everything from iron ore to soybeans, copper, and corn. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Ospraie Management LLC are among institutions that have endorsed raw materials as investment plays and predict they have more room to climb.

    Saturday, February 06, 2021

    Notes Today: 

    • Adjusting for the people that have dropped out of the labor force, by choice or obligation, the unemployment rate is around 9.5%,” estimated lead U.S. economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics. 

    • Bloomberg: By the end of last year, more than 30% of U.S. homeowners were considered equity-rich -- meaning their property was worth twice as much as the underlying mortgage, a report showed. 

    • Exxon Mobil posted its first annual loss in at least 40 years. 

    • South Korea returned to first place in the latest Bloomberg Innovation Index, while the U.S. dropped out of a top 10 that features a cluster of European countries



    • Guardian: The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.
    • President Biden is supposedly on pace to save the U.S.  $124m this year by just not golfing. 

    Fox has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight” one day after the host was named in a multibillion dollar defamation lawsuit against the network and its parent company.👍😂