Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Monday, October 19, 2020

  • Commodities looking seriously undervalued.


The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened over 1 million passengers Sunday, representing the highest number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints since March 17, 2020.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

  •  And this From The Financial Times

Daily / Weekly Charts  - are up to date

Weekly / Monthly Charts - are up to date

The British pound could become interesting in the next few days. 
Bloomberg says that Financial firms operating in the U.K. have already shifted about 7,500 staff and more than $1.6 trillion of assets to the EU. Meanwhile Boris says “get ready for a no-deal Brexit”. (However no-one believes a word Johnson says) 

  •  Dow Trend is up to date - and declares DJI is  cheap.

While fear is running high.

  •  Tanker Rates still strong - storage demand..

Saturday, October 17, 2020

I think most daily charts are up to date. 

The weekly stuff should be up to date by tomorrow evening some time.

  •  Italy - has the best borrowing terms since the year 1310.

Economist: Ivory Coast was named after the product of its abundant elephants. But data published in PLoS ONE , a journal, show how much has changed since colonial days. Researchers drew on dung counts, interviews with local experts and media reports to take the first census of Ivorian elephants in a decade. The situation is dire. They estimate that there are just 225 forest elephants left in the country, a fall of 86% since 1994. Worse, they could only confirm the presence of elephants in four of 25 protected areas.

Friday, October 16, 2020

 Moody’s downgrades UK one notch to Aa3 stable outlook from Aa2 with negative outlook on low growth, high debt and fractious policy environment. Expects govt debt to GDP ratio to peak at 112% by year-end. Sees govt deficit of 18.5% for this year and 7.4% for 2021.

  • The China Containerized Freight Index Composite is making 5 year highs


 Quick Overview is up to date

  • To cheer every body up - a picture of a new record. I can already hear  the blaring and screaming from the GOP next year , about the deficit -  should they fail in November.

  • Or, perhaps, you would prefer this one - a bit further back.

  •  Zero commissions, stuck at home, attempting to make ends meet...

  • FT: This was the week we witnessed the funeral of austerity. 
  • The IMF and World Bank are urging richer countries to spend their way out of the pandemic, although some developing nations continue to face cuts 
  • The U.S. budget deficit hit a record $3.132 trillion during fiscal 2020, more than triple the 2019 shortfall, as a result of massive coronavirus rescue spending, the U.S. Treasury said on Friday.
  • The deficit more than doubled the previous record of $1.416 trillion in fiscal 2009, when the United States was battling a financial crisis. 
  • Median weekly earnings of the nation's 109.7 million full-time wage and salary workers were $994 in the third quarter of 2020 (not seasonally adjusted). This was 8.2 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.2 percent in the CPI-U.
  • Boris Johnson just told the U.K. to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. 

  • Japan plans to release Fukushima water into the Pacific Ocean 

  • The Covid-19 treatment remdesivir has no substantial effect on a patient’s chances of survival, a clinical trial by the World Health Organization has found. 

  • Retail sales above expectations at 1.9% - Good news on consumption at a time when many people have lost extra benefits.

  • Global Clean Energy  - performing as advertised.

  •  and so is Coal

The extra $600 per week in jobless benefits doubled the savings of unemployed Americans in July. However, a month after the payments ended, they burned through most of that. So, pointing out the obvious, unless new emergency funds are forthcoming, household spending will get tight. And so far, it seems not to be forthcoming.

Thursday, October 15, 2020

 FT View: Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been exposed to unrelenting scrutiny. And yet neither will have as lasting an influence on US life as Amy Coney Barrett, who is cruising towards confirmation to the Supreme Court as something of an enigma..

 Cole Smead, president of Smead Capital Management, explaining in a CNBC interview on Thursday how "young, dumb" investors have created a "total nightmare" in the current climate.    "They are buying bullish call options that expire inside two weeks. There was ($500 billion) of bullish call options bought in a four-week stretch by small retail traders," Smead said. "In '99 it was $100 billion, in '07, it was $100 billion." 

  • US Initial jobless claims climbed (unexpectedly) to 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level of 845,000.

  • Housing appears to be a bright spot in the U.S. economy, but some data suggest a weaker outlook ahead for the sector.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

 Priceless  response to the originalist Barrett:

  •  And how's Trumps Trade War going?

  •  China's stock market value climbs past 2015 high

  • FXI iShares China
  • China Population 1.4 Billion, Total Covid-19 Cases 85,611, Total Death 4,634.

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

 Covid-19 Live Updates: White House Embraces ‘HerdImmunity’ Declaration (AKA  cull the herd)

According to my math:

Take the US population of 331 Million
Herd Immunity is achieved at doubtful 40%  = 132 Million People would have to get the virus.
The Current death rate is 2.7 % but benefit of doubt lets say its 2%
That would imply that 2.6 million people would need to die  to achieve this herd immunity - 
at 40%. In reality it's probably more like 70%. 

Is THIS country OK with THAT # - REALLY? 

I'm going to have a whisky ...

Suburbs bound "currently": no big  surprise that apartment rental vacancy rates have risen downtown while falling in suburbs.

Not so  good for ESS and AVB "currently".

Zuckerberg’s Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) says it will “finally” ban anti-vaccination ads. 

 Clean Energy appears to be performing as advertised - "by the left". (DailyShot)

Bloomberg: Since the pandemic, we’ve had the U.S. and China both say they are developing their own respective digital currencies, and now Christine Lagarde the head of the ECB, mentions that the “ECB is seriously looking at the creation of a digital euro…  She also says that the new digital euro wouldn’t “ever” replace the euro, just be a supplement to the cash euro.”  

This is probably note particularly good for the Bitcoins of the world.

 (Reuters) - Radiation levels downwind of U.S. hydraulic fracturing drilling sites tend to be significantly higher than background levels, posing a potential health risk to nearby residents, according to a study by Harvard researchers released on Tuesday.

Bloomberg: High-end Real Estate sales jumped 42% in the third quarter from a year earlier, while sales of mid-priced homes climbed just 3% and  affordable purchases declined 4%.

  • In September, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September (SA); up 1.7 percent over the year


  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from August to September

Monday, October 12, 2020

Nasdaq had its best day since April, U.K. gets more virus controls and a Johnson & Johnson vaccine study was halted. Get ready for Tuesday.

  • FT: UK public borrowing is set to reach £350bn this year, or 17% of gross domestic product, the highest peacetime level in more than 300 years 
  • Nearly half of British firms are financially vulnerable and unprepared for the future, according to Microsoft's boss Nadella.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Facebook (AKA the plague  on humanity) announced it will now ban content that “denies or distorts the Holocaust,” reversing its earlier policy. 

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Bloomberg: If Democrats do sweep the November elections and increase capital gains taxes, it would be unlikely to cause more than a temporary slide in the U.S. stock market, according to JPMorgan 

Most daily stuff is up to date (I think) 

  • And low rates are  moving housing right along. 

  • Sox Semiconductor Index sipping right along.


  • S&P 500 Vix Ratio rate of change back to red. 

Bloomberg: On the same day the World Food Programme was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its fight against hunger, fresh numbers from the U.S. government showed that tighter crop supplies could worsen the food-inequality crisis that’s sweeping the globe.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Friday, October 09, 2020

  •  And here is todays USDA report via Karen Braun