Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.6% MoM and 18.1% YoY

  • U.K. GDP fell 4.9%

  • Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.2%,

  • Japan’s household spending rose 0.3%

  • New Zealand June Business Confidence rose to 5.5 from 1.9 in May

  • UK Consumer Confidence rose to -25 from -27 in May

  • Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY

  • Canada’s industrial prices fell 1.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY

  • The USDA said:
    87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
    77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
    59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.

  • The USDA said June grain stocks for:
    Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
    Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
    Wheat were 667 million bushels.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Argentina faces having to import wheat
"Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".

Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.

Quick Overview

  • Japan’s May Retail Sales fell 2.8% YoY

  • Japan’s Industrial output rose 5.9% in May, the third consecutive month of positive gain.

  • The USDA said there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% YoY.

  • The USDA said 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% YoY

  • Local expert says that Argentina may step out of wheat export market for the first time since 1910 – Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)

  • Bernard Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 1.4% in May

  • U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3%.

  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 68.7 to 70.8

  • YoY Japan’s CPI fell 1.1% in May

  • (FT) The People's Bank of China repeated its call for the world to cut its reliance on the dollar, saying it saw serious defects in one currency dominating the global monetary system

  • The USDA said the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% YoY

  • The USDA said the U.S. produced 1.72 billion pounds of pork in May, down 5% YoY

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1 and 2.5% YoY

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 last week to 627,000.

  • US Q1 Personal Consumption rose 1.4% vs. 1.5% expected

  • Euro zone’s index of industrial new orders fell 0.5% MoM and 35% YoY

  • Sweden’s June Consumer Confidence rose to -9.0 vs. -8.8 expected and -11.0 in May

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

India Rains May Be Below Average, Worsening Dry Spell
(Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, may be below average this year, denting prospects for bigger crops of rice, oilseeds and sugar cane.

Quick Overview

  • (FT) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has revised its World Economic Outlook upwards for the first time in two years, as its latest review concludes that the global economic slide is nearing a bottom

  • U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May. Excluding transportation orders rose 1.1%.

  • U.S. new home sales fell 0.6%. YoY new home sales are down 38%.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels last week to 353.9 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 3.9 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 100,000 barrels.
    Refinery use increased from 85.9% to 87.1%
    Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 9. 3% YoY

  • (FT) The Swiss franc fell sharply on Wednesday after the country's central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to halt the currency's rise

  • (Spiegel) A German court has ruled that pupils can rate their teachers online, rejecting a bid by one instructor to shut down a Web site that gave her a low grade.

  • Northeast China's Port of Rizhao port handled 16.4 million tonnes of cargo in May, up 26.9 % YoY

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Obama vs. Obama

Quick Overview

  • U.S. existing home sales rose 2.4% to 4.77 million units in May -- less than expected.

  • (Reuters) - U.S. chief executives took a slightly less grim view of the economy in the second quarter, but still plan to cut jobs and capital spending, according to a Business Roundtable survey released on Tuesday.

  • Japan's exports in May dropped 40.9% YoY

  • Germany’s July Consumer Confidence rose to 2.9 from 2.6 in June

  • Switzerland May Trade Balance out at 2.01B vs. 2.55B in April.

  • Euro Zone June PMI Manufacturing out at 42.4 versus 40.7 in May.

  • Euro Zone June PMI Services out at 44.5 versus. 44.8 in May

  • The USDA said there were 79.1 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, down 9.5% YoY.
  • Frozen pork totaled 584.1 million pounds, up 0.8% YoY.

  • The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice in storage at the end of May were up 0.6% YoY.

  • (FT) Japanese retail investors, once enamored of Icelandic bank accounts and kiwi bonds, are now turning their purchasing power to Japanese stocks

  • FedEx CEO says the worst is behind us and is poised for growth in the second half

  • China has cut the export tax on several steel products to 5% from the 10-15%.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Sugar jumped to the highest price since July 2006 on signs that a production deficit may extend into a second year

  • China's sugar imports in May rose 26% on year to 141,457 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said.

  • India’s sugar output is forecast to drop about 45% to 14.7 million tonnes in the crop year to September.

  • (WSJ) Madoff asked a federal judge to sentence him to as little as 12 years in prison. Sentencing of the disgraced financier is scheduled for June 29.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The World Bank expects world GDP to fall 2.9% in 2009, worse than the 1.7% predicted in March. They expect U.S. GDP to fall 3% and 4.5% in Europe.

  • Japan's Tankan survey rose from -66.0 to -13.2 in Q2

  • (Reuters) - The worst of the global economic crisis is over, multi-billionaire financier George Soros told Polish news channel TVN24 on Sunday urging the creation of international regulations to oversee global markets.

  • The USDA said there were 10.407 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, down 3.8% YoY

  • China imported 337,230 tons of copper in May, a record high that dropped copper to the lowest level in more than two weeks. It was taken as a signal for a peak in demand from the world's biggest consumer of the red metal.

  • (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is considering creating a utility to replace the Wall Street banks that handle U.S. repo market transactions, the Financial Times reported on Monday,

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Don't believe the hyperinflation hype - dare to make cuts
"If Ben Bernanke and his officials are listening to this sort of stuff and taking it seriously, they are making the same mistake as the Fed in the early 1930s," he said. The US "output gap" is near 7pc. That is a powerful lid on inflation.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Quick Overview

  • California's unemployment rate climbed to 11.5% in May

  • Moody's issued a downgrade warning to California.

  • YoY Thailand's exports fell 26.6% to $11.7 billion

  • Mexico cut interest rates to 4.75 %

  • Canada’s retail sales fell 0.8% in April.

  • (WSJ) The U.S. and Switzerland agreed to share information on potential tax evaders.

  • (WSJ) Chinese regulators have ordered Google to suspend search services for foreign Web sites via its Chinese Web site, a Xinhua report said.

  • (Reuters) - A "distressingly slow" U.S. housing recovery, with inflation-adjusted home values expected to decline over the next five years, makes it unlikely that housing wealth will drive consumer spending in the next decade, a Reuters/University of Michigan survey found.

China’s Suntech, Denmark’s Vestas Bet on Obama’s Green Energy
“Most of the renewable energy industry worldwide believes that the U.S. will within the next three years become the largest market in the world for solar,” Efird, president of Suntech America, said in an interview.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 608,000.

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -22.6 to -2.2.

  • U.S. index of leading indicators rose 1.2% in May.

  • The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China from 6.5% to 7.2%

  • U.K. retail sales fell 0.6% in May and 1.6% YoY

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek

The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.

Quick Overview

  • U.K. unemployment rate out at 7.2%

  • Construction output in the EU rose 0.7% in April.

  • FedEx's CEO Frederick Smith predicted that the worst of the recession is behind us.

  • Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reported a 20.2% drop in container movement in May.

  • Hong Kong reported a 12.1% drop in container movement in May.

  • The U.S. DoE said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 357.7 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 3.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 600,000 barrels.
    Distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million barrels.
    Gasoline demand rose 1.1%

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. housing starts rose 17.2% MoM.

  • U.S. industrial production fell1.1% in May

  • YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 0.7% in May

  • YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 2.2% in May

  • Canada’s productivity rose 0.3% in Q1

  • The real cost of living for British families has fallen by 10% since this time last year according to figures compiled for The Telegraph.

  • (Spiegel) A German-led consortium wants to fund an international solar-energy plan to the tune of €400 billion. The idea is to gather solar heat in North Africa and send the electricity to Europe. If it works, it would be the largest green-energy project in the world.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -4.4 to -9.4 in June.

  • (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Monday that risk aversion has eased, while inventory rebuilding and new business spending bode well for an economic recovery that could provide a dramatic surge in corporate profits by year end.

  • The American recession will be less deep and shorter than initially predicted according to the IMF.

  • The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy for the second straight month, and left the overnight lending rate at 0.1 %

  • 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.

  • The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.

  • Cautious comments from Chinese premier Wen Jibao over the durability of economic recovery in the world's third largest economy weighed on investor enthusiasm.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

The crucifixion of Latvia
We know from leaked documents that the Fund advised Latvia to ditch the peg last year. IMF experts were overruled by Brussels. The reason, of course, was to prevent: 1) a chain of falling dominoes in Eastern Europe; 2) a default shock for West European banks with $1.6 trillion (£970bn) of exposure to the region; 3) leakage from Bulgaria across the EU line into Greece – euroland's Achilles heel.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose from 68.7 to 69.0

  • EU industrial production fell 21.6% YoY.

  • China's retail sales rose 15.2% YoY.

  • YoY India’s Industrial production rose 1.4% in April

  • OPEC expects world oil demand to average 83.8 million barrels per day in 2009, down from last month's estimate of 84.0 mbd.

  • Crude oil stored on offshore tankers fell 16% in the past two weeks to about 67 million barrels.

  • Crude oil exports from Iraq reached 2.4 million barrels per day, their highest level since after the U.S.-led invasion.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive Dozens of US cities may have entire neighbourhoods bulldozed as part of drastic "shrink to survive" ..

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in May, the first gain in three months -- much of the gain was due to higher gas prices.

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 24,000 last week to 601,000.

  • China’s copper imports rose 6% in May

  • China’s urban fixed-asset investment (building railways, oil pipelines, low cost housing) rose 32.9%.

  • Boeing projects a market for 29,000 new commercial airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion over next 20 years. They project strong global demand, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns.

  • (Spiegel) The Schönbrunn Zoo in Vienna has launched an art installation that puts its animal’s side-by-side with symbols of humanity's trashing of the environment -- including abandoned cars, rusty bathtubs and toxic waste.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu, causing mostly mild disease outbreaks on four continents, prompted the World Health Organization to declare the first influenza pandemic since 1968

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 as Bank Seizures Loom
Additional U.S. home foreclosures will probably total 6.4 million by mid-2011, and inventories of foreclosed homes awaiting sale will probably peak in mid-2010 at about 2 million properties, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by John Sim wrote in a June 5 report. U.S. prices will likely drop 39 percent on average, they said.

IMF Says New Bonds Not Likely to Be Sold on Secondary Market
Treasury yields climbed this year and the dollar fell in part on concern that foreign central banks would reduce holdings of U.S. financial assets just as the Obama administration sells a record amount of debt to finance a growing budget deficit and pull the economy from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. trade deficit widened to $29.16 billion in April. Exports fell $2.8 billion to $121.1 billion while imports fell $2.2 billion to $150.3 billion.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Russia may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the central bank said today.

  • China's May Producer Price Index fell 7.2% YoY

  • China's May Purchasing Price Index fell 10.4% YoY.

  • YoY China's exports fell 26.4 % in May

  • Korea kept its interest rate unchanged at an all-time low of 2% for a fourth consecutive month.

  • Australia's unemployment rose to 5.7% percent from a revised 5.5 % – better than expected.

  • Japan's April Machine orders fell 32.8% YoY

  • China's May Consumer Price Index fell 1.4% YoY

  • USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
    Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
    Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
    Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
    Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.

  • The Department of Agriculture said by August 31 soybean stocks would fall to 110m bushels, the lowest since stocks dropped to 103m bushels in 1976-77.

  • USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
    Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
    Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
    Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.

  • The USDA raised its estimate of the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 158 to 160 million boxes. The juice yield was raised from 1.65 to 1.66 gallons per box.

  • The U.S. DOE said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 4.4 million barrels to 361.6 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 800,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 86.3% to 85.9%.
    YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
    YoY distillate demand fell 8.4%.

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

The depression quietly deepens
How can it do so when the velocity of circulation has collapsed, and unemployment is rising everywhere? The Fed's "monetary multiplier" ended last week at 0.867, half its average of 1.7 over the last decade. The credit mechanism is still broken. This is what happened in Japan in its Lost Decade.

Quick Overview

  • (FT) Defaults on US commercial mortgages could hit 4.1 per cent by the end of the second quarter, their highest level since the 1992 recession, according to Real Estate Econometrics, a property research firm.

  • Australia's consumer sentiment index rose 12.7% to 100.1

  • China's vehicle sales rose 34% in May to 1.12 million,

  • YoY Germany's exports fell 29% in April

Monday, June 08, 2009

Quick Overview

  • (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said.

  • YoY Corporate bankruptcies in Japan fell 6.7% in May.

  • The USDA said:
    97% of the corn crop is planted and 69% is rated good to excellent.
    78% of the soybean crop is planted (The five-year average is 87%)
    96% of the spring wheat crop is planted and 72% is rated good to excellent.
    44% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent.
    89% of the cotton crop is planted (The five-year average is90%)

Friday, June 05, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. unemployment rate rose from 8.9% to 9.4%. Non-farm payrolls fell a smaller than expected 345,000.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.4% in May,

  • Japan's capital spending fell 25.4%

  • Shanghai monthly trade value rose 3.7% MoM, but fell 26% YoY

  • (Spiegel) Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, is reporting the country's economy will contract by 6.2 percent in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis. A recovery is expected to start in 2010, but economists warn Germany will struggle at least until 2013.

  • University of Illinois projects this year's corn crop at 11.3 bln bu on a yield of 148.6 bu per acre. That would require rationing. Arlan Suderman Farm Futures

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Financial regulator seeks powers to curb excess speculation Gensler's proposals seek to curb excessive speculation in these complex markets. They'd standardize many contracts and have them clear on an exchange, much like regulated products on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 621,000

  • U.S. non-farm productivity increased 1.6% QoQ and 1.9% YoY

  • Retail sales volume in the EU area rose 0.5% MOM, but fell 1.4% YoY.

  • France's unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 8.7%

  • Canada kept interest rates unchanged

  • England kept interest rates unchanged

  • European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged

  • (Reuters) - Medical bills are behind more than 60 percent of U.S. personal bankruptcies, U.S. researchers reported Thursday in a report they said demonstrates that healthcare reform is on the wrong track.

  • (Spiegel) Two male penguins at a zoo in Bremerhaven, Germany -- who have been a pair for years -- have hatched and raised an abandoned chick as their own.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Latvian debt crisis shakes Eastern Europe
Latvia faces a calamitous hangover after blazing the trail of euro, Swiss franc, and yen mortgages. Fitch Ratings says foreign debt maturing in 2009 is equal to 320pc of foreign reserves.

Quick Overview

  • (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a cautiously upbeat note on the U.S. economy on Wednesday but warned that corralling government debt was vital to ensuring the nation's long-term health.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said;
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.9 million barrels to 366.0 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 85.1% to 86.3%.
    Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 8.8% YoY.

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Pending sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose 6.7% in April -- the biggest monthly gain in over seven years

  • Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.0%,

  • The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in April,

  • Manufacturing index in the Euro zone rose from 36.8 to 40.7

  • Up to 50% of the Canadian Prairies wheat belt faces serious moisture shortages. Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)

Monday, June 01, 2009

Quick Overview

  • (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Citigroup Inc. were removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replaced by Cisco Systems Inc. and Travelers Cos., after the first global recession in 70 years crippled their earnings and sent their shares down more than 90 percent.

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.5% in April

  • The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 42.8 from 40.1 in April.

  • U.S. construction spending rose 0.8%

  • YoY Canada’s PPI fell 0.5%.

  • U.K. manufacturing rose to 45.4 from 43.1

  • China’s manufacturing index dropped from 53.5 to 53.1 in May, but expanded for a third month.