Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The International Monetary Fund’s gold holdings fell 15.25 metric tons in May, according to figures from the Washington-based lender’s website.

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 59.7 to 59.1 in June

  • U.S. mortgage applications rose 12.6% last week

  • MoM Germany's unemployment rate improved from 7.7% to 7.5%

  • YoY Japan’s housing starts fell 4.6% in May

  • MoM China’s purchasing managers index fell to 52.1 from 53.9

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 2.0 million barrels last week to 363.1 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 500,000 barrels
    Supplies of distillates rose 2.5 million barrels.
    Gasoline demand rose 1.5%
    Distillate demand rose 10.9%

  • The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
    Corn at 87.87 million acres, up almost 2% YoY
    Soybeans at 78.87 million acres, up 2% YoY
    All wheat at 54.31 million acres, down 8% YoY
    Spring wheat at 13.91 million acres, up 5% YoY
    Cotton at 10.91 million acres, up 19% YoY
    Oats 3.176 million (the lowest on record)
    Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million

    As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
    Corn at 4.31 billion bushels -- up 1% YoY
    Soybeans at 571 million bushels -- down 4% YoY
    All wheat at 973 million bushels -- up 48% YoY
    Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Quick Overview

  • (Reuters) - A new United Nations report released on Tuesday calls for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value.

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell from 62.7 to 52.9 in May, weaker than expected.

  • Chinas leading indicators fell 0.3% in April

  • Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 5.2% in May,
  • Japan’s industrial output fell 0.1% in May.
  • Japan’s household spending fell 0.7% in May

  • The S&P’s /Case-Shiller index of home prices in twenty U.S. cities rose 0.4% MoM and up 3.8% YoY.

  • Oil World says soyoil prices will "likely strengthen", rebuilding a premium over palm oil, thanks to a pick up in Chinese and Indian orders

  • Lack of rain in Vietnam caused Robusta prices to hit a fresh 16-month high as worries mount about the top producer's lack of rainfall, which is also hitting rice crops.

  • There are 90 vessels in Brazil waiting to be loaded with sugar.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Friday, June 25, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP rose 0.7% in Q1 and up 2.4% YoY

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 73.6 to 76.0 in June

  • Japan's consumer price index fell 0.9% YoY – Govt. goal of ending deflation next fiscal year in doubt.

  • France's GDP rose 0.1% in Q1 – and Paris announces a further €3.5bn of tax rises for 2011.

  • The USDA said that beef production totaled 2.09 billion pounds in May, down 4% YoY

  • The USDA said Pork production totaled 1.62 billion pounds in May, down 6% YoY

  • (FT) The modest appreciation in the level of the currency during the first week of trading under the new flexible regime has raised questions about Beijing’s real intentions.

  • (Reuters) - A bomb explosion at the Greek ministry in charge of police could be an ominous show of strength by militants in a nation suffering austerity cuts that have sparked street protests and scared off tourism.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Residents and business owners along the Gulf of Mexico face a weekend of watching and planning as a weather system that may become the year’s first tropical storm, or hurricane, lingers on their doorstep.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 19,000 last week to 457,000

  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.1% in May, the first decline in six months

  • YoY Japan's exports rose 32% in May

  • EU industrial new orders fell 0.2% MoM, but rose21.8% YoY

  • (AP) Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell this week to an average of 4.69 percent, the lowest since the mid-1950s.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, the lowest since records begin in 1963. Sales in March and April were also revised lower; April's sales pace was 446,000 compared with 504,000 originally reported.

  • F.O. Licht raised 2009/10 world sugar production by 0.7% to 155 million MT on higher output from Brazil and India. This is up from a February prediction of 153.9 million MT.

  • The U.S. DOE said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 800,000 barrels
    Supplies of distillates rose 300,000 barrels
    Gasoline demand rose 0.8%
    Distillate demand rose 12.8%

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

The Quiet Coup Not surprisingly, Wall Street ran with these opportunities. From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent

Quick Overview

  • The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from +26 to +23 in June

  • YoY Canada’s consumer price index rose 1.4% in May

  • China net coal imports expected to reach 170 million tonnes in 2010.

  • Maersk Line is deploying laid-up ships as well as ordering new boxes and leasing old ones, according to the UK's Handing Shipping Guide. Prices for new maritime containers are close to the highest point in 20 years, driven by a rush of new orders from ocean carriers and container leasing companies in response to a growing shortage of boxes.

  • (CNN) Nearly 200 people have died and more than 120 are missing from heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern China provinces..

Monday, June 21, 2010

Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
The World Gold Council said on Friday that the central banks of Russia, the Philippines, Kazakhstan and Venezuela have been buying gold, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary authority has "restated" its reserves upwards from 143m to 323m tonnes. If there is any theme to the bullion rush, it is fear that the global currency system is unravelling. Or, put another way, gold itself is reclaiming its historic role as the ultimate safe haven and benchmark currency.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Yuan Unshackled May Strengthen China Shift to Domestic Demand
(Bloomberg) -- China’s signal of an end to the yuan’s fixed rate to the dollar may accelerate a shift toward domestic demand as the prime driver of growth as President Hu Jintao seeks to strengthen household incomes.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.9% in May

  • Mexico met market expectations by leaving the country s key interest rate unchanged at 4.5%

  • (Bloomberg) -- China, the largest cotton user, may raise its import quota for the natural fiber as it sells more from government stockpiles to quench a supply shortfall, an industry analyst said

  • (Agrimoney) Prices of oranges in Spain have jumped by 30% thanks to a production slump caused by a harsh winter, and which is set to cause a rise in European Union imports.

  • Gold hit a new record high.

  • Maersk, the world's biggest container shipping group, is warning of an unprecedented shortage of containers in the run-up to the peak shipping season on the back of a strong rebound in global trade.

  • The USDA estimates Brazil’s coffee output to surge 23% to a record 55.3 million bags in the 2010-11 marketing year. In addition, Brazil is expected to boost its harvest of arabica coffee beans, which are valued more than the Robusta by 27% in the year to 41.8 million bags.

    (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose, notching the first weekly gain since April, on speculation that unusually heavy rain will leave U.S. Midwest fields too muddy to plant. Corn also gained.
    Farmers in parts of Iowa and Illinois, the biggest U.S. soybean producers, must decide by June 20 to receive crop insurance payments instead of planting. Some areas received six times the normal rainfall in the past month, delaying soybean seeding and threatening to damage newly planted corn crops.

ECB must buy 'hundred of billions' of bonds to tame Europe's debt crisis
"If the euro falls to parity or down to 80 cents against the dollar, we would start to see a solution," he said.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 12,000 last week to 472,000, more than expected.

  • U.S. consumer price index fell 0.2% MoM and rose 2.0% YoY

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 21.4 to 8.0

  • Construction output in the EU was unchanged MoM and rose 4.3% YoY

  • U.K.'s retail sales volume rose 0.6% in May and 2.2% YoY

  • The Swiss agree to hand thousands of private bank details to the US

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Italian economists slam austerity measures
"Some countries will be pushed out of the eurozone, others will break away to free themselves from a deflationary spiral."

Quick Overview

  • Spain’s central bank plans to publish the results of “stress tests” on the country’s financial institutions.

  • US industrial production rose 1.2% in May.

  • U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 593,000 in May, down 10.0% MoM and up 7.8% YoY

  • US utilization rose from 73.7% to 74.7% of capacity.

  • US mortgage applications rose 18% last week,

  • U.K.'s unemployment rate out at 7.9%, down from 8.0% last month.

  • YoY Consumer prices in the EUrose 2.0% in May

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil supplies rose 1.7 million barrels to 363.1 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 600,000 barrels
    Supplies of distillates rose 1.8 million barrels.
    Gasoline demand fell 0.7%
    Distillate demand rose 12.5%

  • FedEx expects U.S. GDP growth of 3.2% during its fiscal 2011, compared to just 1% in the prior period.

  • BP swaps Rise to 36% odds of default and cancels dividend

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 19.1 to 19.57

  • The National Association of Home Builders' sentiment index fell from 22 to 17

  • YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 3.4% in May

  • Japan kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.0%

  • The world’s top oil companies are just as unprepared as BP to handle a major oil spill, Democratic lawmakers charged, following a review of the companies’ emergency response plans.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Quick Overview

  • EU industrial production rose 0.5% MoM and up 7.8% YoY

  • (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s credit rating was cut four steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the country’s economic “risks.” The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3.

  • Wet weather could slash oat production in Western Canada, the second-biggest oat-growing region in the world, by more than 700,000 tonnes. That kind of drop represents 22% of the Canadian Agriculture Department's May 5 production estimate of 3.2 million tonnes.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in May and rose 6.9% YoY

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 73.6 to 75.5 in June

  • YoY India’s Industrial production rose 17.6% in April

  • U.K.’s index of manufacturing fell 0.4% in April and rose 3.4% YoY.
  • U.K. Producer price index rose 0.3% in May and rose 5.7% YoY

  • YoY China's industrial output rose 16.5% in May
  • YoY China’s consumer prices rose 3.1% in May

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 3,000 to 456,000

  • The U.S. trade deficit rose to the highest level in more than a year, according to Commerce Department. Exports fell $1.0 billion to $148.8 billion in April while imports fell $0.8 billion to $189.1 billion.

  • Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.4% to 5.2%

  • Japan's GDP rose 1.2% in Q1 and 4.2% YoY

  • Canada’s exports fell 1.0% while imports fell 2.2%

  • England kept the interest rate unchanged.

  • The ECB kept its interest rate unchanged

  • YoY China's exports rose 48.5% in May -- boosting hopes that global demand is recovering

  • The USDA's 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 1.818 to 1.573 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were lowered from 365 to 360 million bushels.
    Wheat was reduced from 997 to 991 million bushels.
    Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 764,000 short tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2010-2011 world ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 154 to 147 million tons.
    Soybeans were raised from 66 to 67 million tons.
    Wheat was lowered from 198 to 194 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered slightly from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales.
  • They expect beef production to be down 2% in 2010 and again, in 2011.
  • They expect pork production to be down 4% in 2010, but up 3% in 2011.
  • The USDA raised the 2009-2010 Florida orange crops from 132 to 134 million boxes -- Juice yield unchanged.

  • Container traffic at major ports in India for the April-May period increased by 21 % YoY.

  • The International Coffee Organization estimates world coffee production in 2010-2011 at 134 million bags and consumption at 134 million bags.

  • SEC Approves Halts for S&P 500 Stocks That Move 10%

  • (Bloomberg) -- The proportion of U.S. homeowners turning delinquent on mortgages backing the securities that roiled the global financial system has tumbled in the past three months, even after accounting for a typical seasonal improvement, according to RBS Securities Inc.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.7% in April

  • U.S. inventories rose 0.4%.

  • US mortgage applications fell 5.7% -- the lowest level in three years.

  • Japan's machinery orders rose 4% in April

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 1.8 million barrels to 361.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline were unchanged
    Gasoline demand fell 1.0%
    Distillate demand rose 12.1%
    Refinery use was at 89.1% of capacity

  • The manufacturer of BP’s dispersant says that it can’t reveal the dispersants composition, because it is a trade secret —NO KIDDING

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Brazil's economy grew 9% in the first three months of 2010 - its fastest rate in at least 14 years.

  • (NYT) Scientists say our ability to focus is being undermined by bursts of information from e-mail and other interruptions.

  • Prime Minister David Cameron said that Britain’s financial situation is “even worse than we thought.”

  • Ben Bernanke said the US recovery was proceeding, though at a ‘moderate’ pace.

  • Switzerland's lower house rejected a bill that would have allowed the government to provide the U.S. with the names of alleged American tax dodgers.

  • 2010 US CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels seen up 2.9%

  • Norway has banned new deepwater oil drilling in the North Sea

Monday, June 07, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Hungary’s economy minister, said the ruling party made communication ‘blunders' by raising the issue of a possible default, but insists Hungary is not the next Greece

  • Coastal factories are raising salaries, local governments are hiking minimum wage standards -- the cost of doing business in China is going up, and that could drive up consumer prices in the United States and Europe.

  • OJ Producer Cutrale said Brazil's citrus crop sees its worst harvest in seven years due to bad weather and diseases.

  • As much as 32.3 billion tons of oil can be discovered in China in the future, the 21st Century Business Herald reported Monday, citing experts from the Research Institute of Economics and Technology.

  • GE said the company aims to cut by half its holdings of commercial real estate.

  • (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. panel investigating the causes of the financial crisis issued a subpoena to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. after the Wall Street firm failed to hand over documents in a “timely manner.”

  • Now some positive news about the Euro: A majority of economists polled in Europe said the euro, only 10 years old, is unlikely to survive for another five years.

  • Iran: 'Sheer lie,' central bank chief says of report that country will sell 45 billion Euros to buy gold, dollars.

  • A soldier has been arrested in connection with the WikiLeaks release of a classified video of a 2007 helicopter attack that killed a dozen people in Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff, the military said.

  • An Egyptian security official declared the blockade of Gaza a failure Monday and said his country will keep its border with the Palestinian territory open indefinitely.

Saturday, June 05, 2010

G20 drops support for fiscal stimulus In a letter to the rest of the G20, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, argued: “Concerns about growth as Europe makes needed policy adjustments threaten to undercut the momentum of the recovery”.

Pariah Nation
There’s a political price to be paid for manifest wimpery. Obama is running up a hefty bill.

Friday, June 04, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. unemployment rate improved from 9.9% to 9.7% in May

  • Canada’s unemployment rate stayed at 8.1%

  • EU GDP rose 0 .2% in Q1 and up 0.5% YoY

  • Informa increased their US winter wheat production estimate to 1.481 billion bushels on Friday, compared to the USDA's May estimate of 1.458 billion.

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Oil leaking from a BP PLC (BP) well in the Gulf of Mexico might soon find its way around Florida and along thousands of miles of Atlantic coastline, according to a computer model produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its collaborators.

  • Google will begin handing over to European regulators the rogue data it intercepted from private WiFi internet connections.(Reuters) -

  • Three Federal Reserve officials said it may soon be time to begin raising interest rates as the economic recovery in the United States gathers momentum, despite persistently high unemployment.

  • U.S. jobless claims were down 10,000 last week to 453,000

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services stayed at 55.4

  • ADP Employer Services said that the private sector added 55,000 jobs in May

  • U.S factory orders rose 1.2% in April.

  • EU sales fell 1.2% MoM and down 1.6% YoY.

  • EU purchasing managers' index fell from 57.3 to 56.4.

  • Japan's capital spending fell 11.5% Q1,

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 1.9 million barrels to 363.2 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 2.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 900,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 87.8% to 87.5%
    Gasoline demand rose 0.5%
    Distillate demand rose 17.1% from a year ago.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales rose 6% in April and up 22% YoY

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week.

  • Australia’s GDP rose 0.5% in Q1 and up 2.7% YoY

  • India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, may allow mills to export 967,000 metric tons of white sugar.

  • Greece announced long-delayed plans to privatize state-owned companies as part of its attempt to fix its public finances and chip away at the massive public debt.

  • (ISU) It is likely that La NiƱa conditions will be reached during the month of June. This would indicate a substantial increase in corn yield risk for the U.S. , shifting the likely hood of a below trend yield from about 50/50 to 70%. Most of the risk increase would be in the central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. E. Taylor

  • According to China's Xinhua, Iran will sell euros for the U.S. dollar and gold. Iran joins a host of other emerging countries like China and India that have been ramping up their gold reserves and discarding paper currencies

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Quick Overview

  • A second larger Icelandic volcano, Katla, has shown signs of imminent eruption, again threatening the movement of aircraft in Europe and eastern North America.
    "We conclude that given the high frequency of Katla activity, an eruption in the short term is a strong possibility. It is likely to be preceded by new earthquake activity," said a paper from the University College of London Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 60.4 to 59.7 in May,

  • Manufacturing in China fell from 55.7 to 53.9 in May
  • Chinese ports recorded a container throughput of 11.08 million TEU in April, up 23.2 per cent YoY.

  • Unemployment rate for the EU was unchanged at 9.7% in April.
  • Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 57.6 to 55.8 in May

  • Canada raised rates from 0.25% to 0.50%.
  • Canada’s GDP rose 1.5% in Q1 and up 2.2% YoY

  • YoY India’s GDP rose 7.4% in Q1