Monday, November 30, 2020

Thanks to the heroic efforts of health workers - a little bit of good news regarding the virus. While the overall US news is grim and getting grimmer daily, the % of people dying from the disease is now under 2%. That is down from over 6% in the spring. A development for which we should be most thankful.

Warren Buffett dismissed bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as worthless in a CNBC interview on Monday. "Cryptocurrencies basically have no value," Buffett said. "They don't produce anything." "You can't do anything with it except sell it to somebody else," he added.Feb 24, 2020

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shot to a record just as billions of institutional dollars have fled gold. (Gold’s at least good for a filling in someone’s tooth  😉) 

Notes Today:

  • Bloomberg: Bank of America Corp. said that it won’t provide project financing for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic after facing opposition from environmentalists. 
  • Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Monday ramped up her calls for a new Scottish independence referendum
  • Bloomberg: Moderna Inc. requested clearance for its coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. after a new analysis showed it was highly effective in preventing Covid-19, with no serious safety problems.

  • Japan's jobless rate rose to 3.1% in October.
  • WSJ: The coronavirus was in the US in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China, according to CDC analysis of blood donation samples. This also matches waste water analysis that found virus earlier in Europe.
  • Scott Atlas, Trump’s herd immunity dude (nothing but the finest people) is gone. And so is the herd immunity guy in Sweden. GR!

  • Japans factory output jumped 3.8% MoM mainly due to strength in general machinery production and motor vehicle manufacturing.
  • Japans Retail sales rose 6.4% YoY in October up for the first time in eight months.
  • China, the first major economy to fully recover from the coronavirus crisis, said its  PMI rose to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in October. 
  • About 3.2 billion people live in agricultural areas with “high to very high” water shortages and competition over resources is rising, the UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization said in a report. 

  •  According to a Bloomberg article qanon is thriving, not just in the US, but also in Japan.  


 Besides lithium, batteries evidently also need copper.  

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Saturday, November 28, 2020

WP: Pennsylvania Supreme Court dismisses lawsuit against mail ballots with prejudice in another defeat for Trump
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court dismissed with prejudice a Republican lawsuit seeking to invalidate more than 2.5 million votes cast by mail in the general election, the latest in a string of legal defeats for the GOP as President Trump fails to undo his losses in key battleground states.

Notes Today:

  • Sydney CBD surpassed 40 degrees Celsius (104 F) on Saturday while swathes of western New South Wales, South Australia and northern Victoria baked through even higher temperatures nearing 45 degrees. 

  • Reuters: With just five weeks left until the United Kingdom finally exits the EU’s orbit on Dec. 31, both sides are calling on the other to compromise on the three main issues of contention - fishing, state aid and how to resolve any future disputes. 

  • Mexico’s GDP rose 12.1% QoQ - the best going back to 1990
  • Profits at Chinese industrial firms surged 28.2% YoY in October to 642.91 billion-yuan ($97.79 billion), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Friday, after rising 10.1% in September versus the previous year.
  • China's unofficial restrictions on coal imports from Australia are having more than just an impact on miners down under, it's hurting steel producers in China and helping those elsewhere.
  • An Iranian scientist was killed in an ambush near Tehran on Friday that could provoke confrontation between Iran and its foes in the last weeks of  Trump's presidency.

The euro was the most used currency for global payments last month, the first time it has outpaced the dollar since February 2013.

The US is losing its $ dominance.

And while the China Containerized Freight Index is chugging right along and making new highs -            the Baltic Dry Index continues to struggle.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Friday, November 27, 2020

Solar Flux Hits New High & Big Flares Possible Now | Space Weather News 11.26.2020

Tamitha  Skov: For all my Forecast Shortie Patrons, here is my full Space Weather News forecast a full 12 hours before anyone else gets access! This week we see a fundamental change in our star as solar flux skyrockets and surpasses 100 for the first time in several years! If any of you have seen my lectures on how Solar Cycle 25 will ramp up then you know this is exactly what we expect when we cross the terminator into the new cycle. Expect solar flux to continue to climb and activity to increase over the coming months. If anyone has been doubting the arrival of Cycle 25, doubt no more! On top of the solar flux increase, we also have multiple solar storms, including the first full-halo eruption of this new cycle. Although this is a far-sided eruption and not earth-directed, it does signal that the Sun is launching powerful solar storms again! we will keep our eye on this region as it rotates into view. Add to this the fast solar wind that brought us to G1-storm levels and might still cause aurora to dip into mid-latitudes this week, and it feels like we are definitely climbing out of solar minimum and on our way to a more vibrant Sun! 

As always, I am including the You Tube description and 5-day outlooks below. 

Sugar (USDA): Global production for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is estimated up 16 million metric tons raw value (tons) to 182 million, with Brazil expected to account for three-fourths of the surge. Consumption is expected to rise due to growth in markets such as India, China, Indonesia, and Iran and is estimated to draw stocks lower despite a rebound in output. Exports are expected to be up sharply with rising supplies (particularly in Brazil).

Thursday, November 26, 2020

Bloomberg: China is set to impose anti-dumping duties of more than 100% on Australian wine from this weekend, following a series of sweeping trade reprisals this year and further escalating tensions with Canberra.

AORD,  Australian Dollar and Treasury Wines below.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Originalism,  "promoting the general welfare" - at work. With Barrett's help, the US Supreme Court has blocked coronavirus restrictions imposed on religious services in New York state, backing Christian and Jewish houses of worship in infection hot spots. And Barrett said that her faith would not enter into her decisions - well, so much for that statement!

Average NY New Cases Yesterday 3,755
Average NY New Cases 1 Months Ago 1,397
Doubling in less than a month - looks like an exponential increase to me..


Trump, who once predicted that markets would crash if Joe Biden were elected president. Well,  it seems the exact opposite is happening.

A Trump era first. Democrats rather than Republican's holding a more optimistic economic outlook.

Notes Today:

  • (FT) Facebook allowed ads in the UK that tried to sell cures for Covid-19 including vitamin shots and intravenous drips.

  • (Reuters) - Failure by Britain and the European Union to agree a free trade deal would wipe an extra 2% off the United Kingdom’s economic output while driving up inflation, unemployment and public borrowing, official forecasts showed on Wednesday.

  • Flynn  pardoned.

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 30,000 to 778,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, according to Labor Department data. Not seasonal adjusted it rose by 78,000.

  • LONDON (Reuters) - Banks in the European Union will have to use platforms inside the EU to trade derivatives from January, the bloc’s securities watchdog said on Wednesday, in a move that could cut off the City of London, the world’s biggest derivatives trading hub.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

 The wonderous  effects of  "historic" low rates on RE

 Notes Today:

  • There’s little evidence that herd immunity is helping Sweden combat the coronavirus, according to the country’s top epidemiologist. (642 deaths per 1M Pop.)

  • Reuters: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 96.1 this month from 101.4 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to a reading of 98 in November. The index was at 132.6 in February.

  • Reuters: Despite consumer trepidation about the future, the housing market continues to boom. The pandemic has fueled a migration from city centers to suburbs and other lower-density areas as Americans seek more space for home offices and schooling.
  • A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-metro-area house price index jumped 6.6% from a year ago in September after rising 5.3% in August.
  • (Reuters) - Germany’s gross domestic product grew by a record 8.5% in the third quarter as Europe’s largest economy partly recovered from an unprecedented plunge caused by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring, the statistics office said on Tuesday.

Monday, November 23, 2020

And what's the strongest stock on NASDAQ today? Well its (FCEL) Fuel Cell Energy up 76.9%

Hydrogen bubble, short squeeze, climate motivation, or the next greatest thing in transportation? Perhaps all of the above?

The wealth gap persists: As seen in the figure below, Black and Hispanic family wealth has fluctuated relative to white family wealth from 1989 to 2020. Despite the ups and downs, the sizable gaps (represented by low ratios) have changed very little.

 Roku, perhaps also worth a graph today.

 Disney’s Mouse is looking happy😊

And GSAEmily is  ignoring the Democratic demand for a briefing..
Stonewalling transition,  is an act of willful sabotage to millions of Americans!
Can this individual really get away with endangering millions of lives scot-free ?

Well, what do you know? She’s come around – must have been this post!😏

 Notes Today:
  • (Wired) - The FDA has scheduled its final review of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for December 10. If they are granted emergency use authorization, distribution could begin within hours. But both vaccines quickly lose potency if they aren’t stored and transported at “ultra-cold” temperatures, which will make distributing them to small and isolated rural areas—where many vulnerable Americans live—a delicate operation. Pharmaceutical companies and other packaging manufacturers are working on tech solutions to bridge that gap.
  • (Reuters) - Trump’s last-minute push to allow drilling in a pristine part of Alaska’s Arctic will be an early target for the next administration, according to Senator Tom Udall, a contender to lead the Interior Department under Joe Biden. 
  • (Reuters) - Siemens Mobility and Deutsche Bahn have started developing hydrogen-powered fuel cell trains and a filling station which will be trialled in 2024 with view to replace diesel engines on German local rail networks. 
  • Putin says he is not ready to endorse Biden. I’m not sure this dude gets a vote. 
  • (WP) In a last-minute change before leaving office, the Trump regime finalized a rule Wednesday that will allow the U.S. Forest Service to log and otherwise manage 2,800 acres of forest in the West without an environmental review. 
  • Bloomberg reports: households across the US are once again filling grocery carts brimful in the second round of panic buying. 
  • It is refreshing when you read something about the US government (upcoming) and it makes you calmer instead of upsetting you. Have not experienced that in years.

  • John Kerry:  America will soon have a government that treats the climate crisis as the urgent national security threat it is. I'm proud to partner with the President-elect, our allies, and the young leaders of the climate movement to take on this crisis as the President's Climate Envoy.

 Gold fell to new 4-month low below important support ..

Sunday, November 22, 2020

South Korea Stock Market at record high.

South Korea has 30,733 Virus cases and 505 death (10 per million pop. The US has 791 per million pop.) and is set to enforce tougher virus curbs starting Tuesday to prevent another wave of the pandemic. 

America has 2.61 physicians per 1,000 people, ranking it 26th out of 35 countries in an OECD database. Not all of these professionals are best suited to meet the current crisis due to age and overspecialization. Bloomberg

 BTW Soy Stock to Use Ratio 

 Arizona is out of ICU beds.

You can’t escape breathing, eating and drinking microplastics even if you climbed Mount Everest to avoid it.

Bears Are Disappearing..

 Soybeans performing as advertised..

 Quick Overview is up to date

Saturday, November 21, 2020

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index falls to -0.8328 in the week ended Nov. 13, its lowest level since May 2019 (0=normal stress). For more on how the index is constructed, see FRED:

 China's Containerized Freight Index  is at 6 year height

 Some Very Depressing Charts: