Economist: The world’s consumers are sitting on a pile of cash. Will they spend it?

Households do not usually save on such a scale during recessions. For one thing, their incomes usually fall, as their pay is cut or they lose their jobs. But governments in the rich world have spent 5% of their combined GDP on furlough schemes, unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques during the pandemic. As a result, household incomes have actually risen in the past year.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• Gold is trying to wake up -  it’s up 2% to $1708 

• Reserve Bank of Australia chief Philip Lowe repeats that interest rates are unlikely to rise until at least 2024 as inflation is a long way from goal.

• Hackers breach thousands of security cameras, exposing tesla, jails, hospitals..

• The Baltic Exchange's rose for the sixth straight session - up 2.6% to 1,901. 
• The Capesize index, rose 6.8% to 1,950.
• The Supramax index rose 36 points to 1,969.
• The Panamax is down a bit to 2,238.
• Asian shipping container shortage - continues.

• Business confidence in India is at at decade high of 74.2  up from 70.2

• The number of China-Europe freight trains hit 1,165 in January, up 66 % YoY. 
• Some 9.97 million pieces of anti-epidemic supplies, weighing 80,000 tonnes, have been sent to European countries including Germany, Poland and Belgium by the trains since the epidemic outbreak.

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Has Zero Intrinsic Value. Some People Are OK With That

Soybeans and sturdy shoes are looking better and better by comparison. 

Tulips anyone?

 

Steve Freed regarding USDA report

Quo Vadis Beans? Reminiscent of the early 70s ..

 

Alan Greenspan's favorite indicator at 5  + year high - despite Covid.

 EU carbon Price on the move. 

The European Union is considering curbs on speculation in the world’s biggest carbon market where record prices have lured hedge funds in search of profits.

 Saturday Night Music:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88LNk-_Tfr8

Quick Overview is up to date 

Zero House and Zero Senate  Republicans voted for Covid relief. Zero, not one! R’s really don’t care about you, your family, or your friends – it’s that simple!

Doing a by the seat of pants (unscientific) survey of ATT (T) comments, on several bulletin boards, the remarks appear to be at least 80% negative. Contrarian anyone? Monthly chart below. BTW the yield is around 7%

Notes today:

• US: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2%. The number of unemployed persons, at 10.0 million, also changed little.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that despite the strong job gains last month, Congress still needs to “go big” by passing President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief.

• Musk’s electric carmaker is down more than 30% since its January high, hurting anything associated with it -- most notably Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK). 

  

• Britain’s financial regulators on Friday called a formal halt to nearly all Libor rates from the end of this year, as expected, piling pressure on markets to speed the switch in interest rates used in $260 trillion of contracts around the world. 

• Singapore’s economy has been ranked the freest in the world this year in The Heritage Foundation’s 2021 Index of Economic Freedom, the second year in a row it topped the list. 

• China is aiming for an economic growth rate above 6% in 2021.

• The U.S. trade deficit widened in January as American consumers stepped up purchases of imported products. The deficit in trade of goods and services expanded by 1.9% to $68.2 billion in January - this compares to a  $66.97 billion gap in December. 

VERY Interesting chart from Longview Economics on Commodity cycles relative to S&P.

If you consider down 20% the definition of a bear market - Ark Investment (ARKK) run by high-flier Cathie Wood is now in a bear market. 

Quick Overview is up to date 

Notes today: 

• SCOTUS today: Justice Barrett: What is the interest of the GOP in keeping (laws that suppress minority voters) on the books?

  Republican Lawyer: It puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats. Politics is a zero-sum game.

• 
  Abbott opening Texas100% - a repeat of last spring. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that moves by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and others to lift statewide Covid restrictions showed "Neanderthal thinking." Neanderthals: Hey, we are all wearing masks!

• When asked about market expectations for earlier rate hikes, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that there is still a lot of ground to cover on jobs and inflation. 

• Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first in the country to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. 

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.8 in February up from 58.7 in January, beating market expectations of 58.8. The strongest expansion in factory activity since February of 2018. 

• MoM Construction spending in the US rose 1.7% 

• In response to Navalny’s continued imprisonment,  the US is catching up with sanctions imposed on Moscow by the EU👍👍 - where  Trump had turned a blind eye. 

• YoY Japans Monetary Base came in at 19.6% below forecasts. 

• The unemployment rate in Japan is 2.9%

• Australia keeps its border shut for another three months. 

  

Notes today: 

• Debt investors face a “bleak future:” so says Warren Buffett in his latest letter . Risky debt "is not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.” 

• 
  Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been transferred to a penal colony outside Moscow. 
  

• The $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, all attention is moving to the vote in Senate.. 

• ZD Net: Apple now sells more phones than Samsung.

• The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China dropped to its lowest in a year of 51.4 in February 2021 from 52.4 in the previous month. 

• The official NBS Manufacturing PMI for China fell to 50.6 in February 2021 from 51.3 a month earlier and less than market expectations of 51.1 

• China’s iron ore futures rose its fourth straight week, while steel rebar and hot-rolled coil advanced on higher downstream consumption. Capacity utilization rose to 92.28%. 

• Container shortage slows Indian sugar exports, fuels price rally.

• Iceberg More Than 20 Times the Size of Manhattan Breaks Off Antarctic Ice Shelf

 

 Quick Overview is up to  date

“The Adoration of the Golden Calf,” by Nicolas Poussin, 1633-1634:

and CPAC 2021 A golden Trump (made in Mexico)

 Latest Kevin Kal Kallaugher

 Notes today:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has Personal income increasing  10.0 percent (monthly rate) while consumer spending increased 2.4 percent in January as provisions of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act enacted on December 27, 2020, began to take effect. 

Bloomberg: SEC Suspends Trading in 15 Stocks That Got Hyped on Social Media:

The SEC’s order noted that while the company hadn’t filed reports in years and its phone number doesn’t work, “social media accounts may be engaged in coordinated attempt to artificially influence” its share price. SpectraScience volume surpassed 3.5 billion shares on a single day in late January as the stock surged 167%.

Game Stop (GME) last at $108 has Mar.19  $800 call options that are bid $6.85 with open interest of 18289. Crazy, fing nuts - but what do I know.

REALLY!😖

Notes today: 

• Rates are getting interesting. An unsuccessful auction of seven-year Treasuries didn’t help.

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 

• U.S. employment grew by 11.8 million from December 2000 to December 2020. The gain was due to increased employment of people age 60 and older. 

• Costco, ahead of Sanders: the US second-largest retailer is adopting a $16 minimum wage for its 180,000 employees next week.
• In the coming days, I will be working with my colleagues in the Senate to move forward with an amendment to take tax deductions away from large, profitable corporations that don’t pay workers at least $15 an hour and to provide small businesses with the incentives they need to raise wages,” Sanders said in a statement.

 

 Quick Overview is up to date

Rats are getting interesting:

 Notes today:

• Goldman Sachs thinks the US is about to grow at around 7%, which would be the fastest pace in years - and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is nowhere near pulling back its economic support. 

• Newhome sales rose at an annual rate of 923,000 in January  - up 19% YoY That was 4.3% above the upwardly revised pace of 885,000 in December.

 

Charlie Munger on Learning etc..

" Without the method of learning, you're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest."

Until the Fed’s Powell reassured markets there was a bit of concern about rising rates. Look at a long term chart of long-term bonds – concerning?

Notes today:

• The Case-Shiller index rose 10.4% in December - the biggest surge since 2014.Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle are leading gains. 

• Conference board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.3 from 88.9 in January. 

• The MyPillow libertarian dude Mike Lindell’s complaining he is losing money ($65M) amid Dominion lawsuits. 

• Some air is coming out of Tesla, now below the price when it was included in the S&P.  

 Twitter without Trump is surging to a record - remarkable.

 BP.  Looks as if Brexit hasn’t diminished the pound badly – so far..

 Dow Theory

 SOX Semiconductor Index

 Biotech ETF (BTK)

 Shipping: Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY.K)

 BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index

 Nikkei P&F

S&P Vix Ratio ROC - back in range..

 DJIA P&F

 Canadian $ P&F

 Cotton P&F

 Sugar P&F

Very unfortunate that the ICE is charging an arm and leg for quotes..👎

 Soybeans P&F

 Copper P&F

Notes today:

The Lincoln Project

AOC  raised $4M for Texas emergency aid

@BetoORourke  raised $1M for Texas emergency aid

@tedcruz  flew to Cancun

• Why we can fly helicopters on Mars and have blackouts in Texas? because the first is run by scientists and the second by Republicans. 

• Sweden, which is known for its colder climate, has offered the Lone Star State (Republicans) some advice to keep the wings moving no matter how harsh the weather - and it only requires 'the right gear.' Read this zerohedge

• Much of the country was entertained by watching Ted Cruz squirm as he tried to explain why he had absconded Texas for a beach resort in Cancun. Remind me, how did this  dude vote for Hurricane Sandy emergency aid again? Reports have it that Texans are now getting energy bills in the thousands..$1000 a day -WTF

• Russia said it found the world’s first cases ofthe H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.

• JUST IN: AG Nominee Merrick Garland opening statement for confirmation hearing Monday. Calls 1-6 "a heinous attack" and says he'll prosecute "white supremacists & others" involved. 👍👍

Couple of charts to peruse..

 NYSE Advance decline line

NASDAQ Advance decline line

NYSE Volume advance decline line

 Quick Overview is up to date

BTW: I have listened to Steve Freed of ADM and his grain comments for well over 30 years - and found it well worth my time. (Also: this comment is totally unsolicited - he does not even know I'm making it)

Notes Today:

• Murmurs of inflation are ongoing. However, the Fed still sees the risk of inflation to the downside; they think a rate that’s too low is more likely than one that’s too high.

• Aren’t January 6^th insurrectionists on the no-fly list? But, but, it's all my kid's fault!

• A 2011 Texas investigation after similar cold weather-related disruptions proved the need to harden energy infrastructure against freezing temps. Texas never did anything about it...

• No Abbott, it’s not the windmills – it’s you and your republicans. 

• U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 861,000 last week, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 848,000 in the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 64,000 to 4.49 million.

• The average Mortgage Rate in U.S for a 30-year fixed loan was 2.81%, up from 2.73% last week and the highest since November,

• Texas has halted sales of natural gas outside the state. Could be a problem with the Constitution's Commerce Clause.