Quick Overview

• The Labor Department said that business productivity was up an annual rate of 4.7% in the third quarter, the best quarterly gain in two years. The U.S. productivity growth is surging, but the wage increases that typically come with such gains have eluded American workers.
  
  

• U.S. factory orders were up 2.2% in October. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.6% on the month.
  
  

• Industrial production in the U.K. was down 1% in November. YoY retail sales were p 4.6% in November.
  
  

• The Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate from 3.00% to 3.25%.

Five Risks
Stephen Roach

The annual year-end forecasting ritual has begun. For us, it is always sparked by the extension of our forecast horizon to another year -- in this case, our first official glimpse at 2007. We also take an in-depth look at our calls for the year nearly completed (2005) as well as for the 12 months lurking just ahead (2006). It is as close to soul searching as the heartless macro prognosticator ever gets.

Quick Overview

• The Institute for Supply Management's services index fell to 58.5 in November from 60.0 in October, below forecast of 59.0
  

• President Bush called on American businesses on Monday to live up to their pension promises.
  

• FedEx Corp. announced it will raise the standard rates for FedEx Ground services next year by an average of 3.9%.
  

• Gasoline pump prices continued to drop in the two weeks ended Friday, falling 11 cents to an average $2.16 a gallon for all grades, analyst Trilby Lundberg reported in her latest survey of filling stations.
  

• A European index of services increased from 54.9 to 55.2 in November, the best reading in over a year.
  

• Gold finished near a 23-year high on Monday spurred by worries over inflation.

Is Mankind a Mistake?
When we are functioning as individuals – whether at work, in the marketplace, among friends, or driving on the freeways – our behavior toward one another tends to be peaceful and respectful. Few of us would be willing to personally inflict, even upon strangers, the brutalities that so many eagerly cheer on when performed by agents of the state with which we identify ourselves. We would quickly find ourselves without friends were we to behave toward them in ways that emulate Dick Cheney’s or Donald Rumsfeld’s recommended treatment of Iraqis. How welcome would a Madeleine Albright be in your community were she to announce that the brutal deaths of neighborhood children was a price she was willing to pay for the advancement of her career? How long would you continue working for an employer who hired Lynndie England as your immediate supervisor?

The Greatest Debt-Beat President in History
In a letter to James Madison, Thomas Jefferson asked how, "one generation of men has a right to bind another." He concluded by saying, "No generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its own existence."

G-7 Central Bankers Pledge Not to Hurt Growth
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Central bankers from the world's richest nations sought to defuse criticism from finance ministers that they risk imperiling economic growth by raising interest rates.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve is not yet finished raising interest rates and must fight any temptation to adopt policies that would stoke inflation, top central bank officials said on Friday

• The U.S. job market rebounded last month from a hurricane-induced slowdown as nonfarm employers added 215,000 workers.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone was 8.3% in October. The unemployment rate for the EU-25 was 8.5%.
  

• Current exchange rates between the dollar and yen are in line with economic fundamentals, Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Friday.
  
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.6% to 6.4% in November.
  
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of world coffee ending stocks for 2005-2006 from 14.9 to 20.3 million bags. The production estimate was unchanged at 113.2 million bags -- world consumption was lowered from 119.4 to 116.6 million bags.

Alarm over dramatic weakening of Gulf Stream
Researchers on a scientific expedition in the Atlantic Ocean measured the strength of the current between Africa and the east coast of America and found that the circulation has slowed by 30% since a previous expedition 12 years ago.

China worries local doctors can't spot bird flu
"I am not worried about governments at various levels covering up an epidemic," Gao told a news conference. "But I am worried about the inability of our medical and quarantine personnel at the local level to diagnose and discover epidemics in a timely fashion due to their low abilities and relatively backward equipment."

The little yellow god
The dull truth is much less bullish for gold. Investors have put money into a wide range of metals, and precious metals' prices, including gold's, have risen with the base. Meanwhile, gold remains fundamentally unattractive. It yields nothing and central banks are sitting on vault fuls of the stuff that they want eventually to sell.

Good Old Economist Mag. Bullish on War -- Bearish on Gold

Asian central banks likely to increase gold reserves
It is only a question of time for Asian central banks to follow and buy in gold: they hold 2.6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and able to change more of them into gold as a hedge against US dollar falls.
The US dollar will inevitably slip further. Some budget deficits of the seven major industrial countries are at a record level, and central banks are "printing banknotes" to devalue their currencies. Huge amount of budget deficits and debts in Europe, America and Japan will finally force them to increase real interest rates in an effort to drag economies back to the right track

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes rose 0.4% in October and consumer spending went up by 0.2%.
  

• YoY the core rate of personal consumption expenditures, was up just 1.8% in October, the smallest gain in six months.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down by 17,000 last week to 320,000.
  

• An index of U.S. manufacturing fell from 59.1 to 58.1 in November following the two fastest-growing months of the year, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday
  

• Construction spending rose 0.7% to an annual rate of 1.13 trillion in October for a fourth straight month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
  

• Sugar closed at the highest level in nine years – an other production deficit is forecast for 2006 and 2007
  

• Gold closed at the highest level (above $500) for 1st time since 1987
  

• The DoE said that natural gas supplies were down 49 billion cubic feet to 3.225 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 2%.
  
  

• London inventories of copper now are at 72,600 tons,
  

• The Bank of Japan needs to not only make sure the economy does not fall back into deflation but should conduct monetary policy in a way that ensures a steady rise in prices, a government report said on Friday.
  
  

• The European Central Bank increased its interest rate, from 2.00% to 2.25%, for the first time in five years.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP was up 4.3% in the third quarter, stronger than expected. YoY GDP was up 3.7%.
  

• The U.S. economy bounced back following the two big hurricanes in August and September, but lingering high fuel prices were pushing up shipping rates in some regions of the country, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended November 25 declined 1.8 percent to 624.1.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Management Association's index dropped from 62.9 to 61.7 in November
  
  

• Overall for-hire trucking freight volumes rose 0.3% in October from a month earlier, the American Trucking Associations said.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Crude oil supplies were down 4.2 million barrels last week to 317.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 500,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 1.5 million barrels..
  
  

• Retail sales in Australia rebounded from a 0.3% drop in September to gain 0.5% in October.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0.9% in the third quarter and up 2.8% YoY.
  India's GDP was up 8% YoY.
  
  

• Argentina's trade surplus widened more than expected to $916 million in October from $854 million a year ago as export volumes increased, the Economy Ministry said on Wednesday.
  

• YoY housing starts in Japan rose 9.1% in October to 115,769 units. With increases in starts on housing units for rent and for sale, such as condominiums, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said Wednesday.The rise followed a 0.2% fall the previous month.
  

2005 Hurricane Season Ends Today as the Worst in 150 Years
Thirteen hurricanes formed in the Atlantic, starting with Dennis in July and ending with Beta last month. There were also 13 tropical storms, which are named once winds reach 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour). The previous record of 21 was set in 1933, according to U.S. National Hurricane Center data. Next year may be more active than usual, some forecasters say.

US paying Iraqi press to run favourable stories
As part of an information offensive in Iraq, the U.S. military is secretly paying Iraqi newspapers to publish stories written by American troops in an effort to burnish the image of the U.S. mission in Iraq.

Co-conspirators’ largesse extended to many
In a plea agreement with prosecutors, Cunningham named four people who had conspired with him to commit the crimes. Although the plea agreement does not refer to the co-conspirators by name, they are widely believed to be Mitchell Wade, the former president of defense intelligence firm MZM Inc., Brent Wilkes, president of defense contractor ADCS Inc., Tom Kontogiannis, a New York real-estate developer, and an unnamed family member of Kontogiannis.

Costly Withdrawal Is the Price To Be Paid for a Foolish War

Maintaining an American security presence in the region, not to mention withdrawing forces from Iraq, will involve many complicated problems, military as well as political. Such an endeavor, one would hope, will be handled by a team different from — and more competent than — the one presently in charge of the White House and Pentagon.

Quick Overview

• The Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose by 13 percent in October to a record 1.424 million and more than expected. The big jump came from the western and northeastern regions. YoY, new home sales are up 7.6%.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were up 3.4% in October, more than expected. Excluding transportation however, orders were up 0.3%, less than expected.
  

• The Conference Board, said its consumer confidence index rose to 98.9 this month, the biggest rise in more than two years.
  

• The Chicago Federal Reserve's manufacturing index increased from 104.7 to 106.6 in October.
  

• Australia upped the estimate of its 2005-2006 wheat crop to 24.1 from 19.7 million tons. Last year Australia harvested 20.4 million tons of wheat.
  

• Japans household spending increased 1.2% in October.
  Japans industrial production was up 0.6%.
  Japans October unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.5%.
  

• Gold prices closed above $500 an ounce in Asian trading for the first time since late 1987, driven by investor demand for the metal as a diversifying asset.
  

• Calpine Corp. replaced its longtime chief executive as well as its chief financial officer in a shake up that sent the company's stock price below $1.

• The USDA said that U.S. Cotton stocks for 2005/06 are forecast to rise 1 million bales to 6.5 million by season’s end, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29 percent and the highest in 4 years.

• YoY Surface trade among the United States, Canada and Mexico rose 11.4% in September to $61.2 billion, a second straight all-time monthly record, the DoT said Tuesday.

Moving right along. Seven Trillion two years ago -- eight Trillion today!

Quick Overview

• The Retail Federation said that U.S. shoppers spent $27.8 billion over the holiday weekend, up 22% YoY.
  

• Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 2.7 percent last month to a 7.09 million annual rate, the slowest since March, the National Association of Realtors said. The number of unsold homes was the highest since April 1986.
  

• The USDA 2005/06 U.S. Ending Stocks for Rice Are Projected to Decline 30 Percent to 26.2 Million Cwt U.S. Rice ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 26.2 million cwt, down 11.5 million cwt from a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.6 percent, down from 16.4
  percent a year earlier and the lowest since 1980/81.

• The USDA reduced the estimate of Brazil's 2005-2006 coffee crop from 36.5 to 36.1 million bags.
  

• Rail freight traffic declined for the week ended Nov. 19, but intermodal continued to rise compared to the same week a year earlier, the Association of American Railroads reported

• Retail sales in Japan were down 0.3% in October. The policy chief of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party said Monday the country had yet to beat deflation.
  

• Mexico's peso hit a 29-month high on Monday.
  

Shipping lines raise charges by 12pc: Effective Dec 1, 2005
Justifying the move, the ‘notice to trade” points out that all member lines are facing considerable increases in charter rates that continue rising dramatically. It also attributes the hike to a worldwide shortage of container equipment. “Consequently, delays caused by these factors and on account of congestion continue affecting all member carriers of the IPBCC and these have a detrimental effect on member lines’ ability to operate efficiently,” the notice added.

Newmont considers a bid for Placer Dome
"In India, the largest gold market in the world, demand year over year to June was up 47 per cent, China was up 14 per cent," Mr Lassonde said.

Brown's gold sale losses pile up as bullion price surges
In due course, Brown sold off 300 tonnes at just $275 an ounce - close to a 20-year low.
Roughly a third of the proceeds were then invested in euros - which then proceeded to plummet.

U.S. Farmers Use Pesticide Despite Treaty
Ruiz and Jorge Fernandez, two California farmworkers, say they saw plenty wrong in the strawberry fields they worked, starting with the dogs, birds and deer that lay lifeless when the workers arrived to remove plastic sheeting from fumigated fields. "That's how we knew this was a dangerous chemical," Ruiz said.

Pension Officers Putting Billions Into Hedge Funds
Faced with growing numbers of retirees, pension plans are pouring billions into hedge funds, the secretive and lightly regulated investment partnerships that once managed money only for wealthy investors.

Math + science = innovation, but US lags in the equation
Behind these moves lurks the fear that many young Americans are abandoning math and science at a time when students in emerging countries like China and India are mastering the subjects. China graduated 500,000 engineers last year, and India 200,000, compared with 70,000 in the United States, according to the National Academy of Sciences study.

Newmont Mining's gold predictions
MOORE: Five hundred US dollars an ounce?
LASSONDE: Oh well passed that. I believe that by early next year you are going to see five twenty five and down the road even a lot higher than that.
MOORE: What is a lot higher?
LASSONDE: The question is gold prices will have three zeros after the first number.
MOORE: Three zeros?
LASSONDE: Ah huh.

How powerful is the Federal Reserve?
With Bernanke about to take over, time for a reality check

'Black Friday' tepid; Wal-Mart a winner
The official holiday shopping season appears to have gotten off to a lukewarm start, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that monitors retail sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was one bright spot in the crowd, reporting its sales exceeded expectations.

Brokerage Firm Hack Endangers Investors
St. Louis-based Scottrade, one of the nation's largest private online stock brokerage houses, has alerted its customers that a hacker break-in may have compromised the security of an untold number of accounts

Scenes From A Bush Thanksgiving
Dubya pouts, Cheney scowls, no one brings pie -- and why is Rove looking at Barb that way?

Quick Overview

• Consumer prices in Germany were down 0.5% in November..
  

• YoY Hong Kong's GDP was up 8.2% in the third quarter.
  

• The European Union will cut its sugar subsidies by 36% and stop paying producers three times the world price. This is expected to be phased in over the next four years. Australia's sugar cane growers will benefit from the European Union agreeing to cut sugar subsidies, an industry spokesman said.
  

Foreign central banks add U.S. debt in week-Fed
Foreign central banks purchased more U.S. debt in the latest week, investing more money in Treasury and government-sponsored agency securities, Federal Reserve data showed on Friday.

Chart of the day

New York Stock Exchange "Volume" Advance Decline Line (Cumulative Daily Volume Breadth)

This chart is generated by subtracting the NYSE Composite "Volume" declines from that days "Volume" advances. The blue line plots the cumulative total.

Quick Overview

• The stock market was supported by a positive reading on the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. The index increased to 81.6 this month from 74.2 (a 13 year low) in October vs. 81.0 expected.
  

• The number of U.S. workers filing initial unemployment benefits rose by 30,000 to 335,000 last week, the Labor Department said.
  

• Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $1.64 billion to $829.60 billion in the latest week -- the Investment Company Institute said.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 400,000 barrels to 321.8 million.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 1.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of natural gas were down 8 billion cubic feet to 3.274 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 1%.
  

• The USDA said that world sugar production will be 144.2 million tons in 2005-2006, 3.6 million tons less than total use.
  

• Because of a NAFTA deadline, the U.S. has agreed to remove the 16.4% tariff on Canadian lumber, not right away. The U.S. wants to appeal the NAFTA decision as long as it can.
  

• YoY Mexico's trade deficit widened to $631 million in October from $564.
  

• YoY Japan's current account surplus shrank 28.8 percent in October,
  

• Canada's index of composite leading indicators was up 0.5% in October
  

• Brazil's central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive month, despite higher-than-expected inflation.
  
  

• Gold mining company Placer Dome Inc. on Wednesday said its board is recommending shareholders reject a $9.2 billion takeover bid by Barrick Gold Corp.

Quick Overview

• Ben Bernanke, said Congress should limit the massive holdings of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an effort to limit any danger their debt poses to the overall economy.
  
  

• Holiday sales at U.S. retailers may rise 6% over last year, up from an earlier 5% forecast, according to the National Retail Federation, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday
  
  

• The average U.S. retail price of diesel fuel fell for the fourth straight week, declining 8.9 cents to $2.513 a gallon, the Department of Energy reported Monday.
  
  

• The South African Chamber of Mines said that gold production totaled 72.4 tons in the recent quarter, down 15% YOY.
  
  

• The USDA said that as of October 31st, there were 15.52 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, down 3% from a year ago. Frozen pork totaled 443.9 million pounds, up 5% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said that there were 1.14 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in cold storage, down 25% YoY.
  

• The Commerce Department said that retail sales over the Internet totaled $22.3 billion in the recent quarter, up 26.7% YoY. Internet sales now account for 2.3% of total retail sales.

How the Media Can Restore Credibility They should be accessible. "Isolation impairs accountability," says Philip Seib, author of a book on reporting in the cyber era. An Ivory Tower mentality keeps news away. It's easier to track down Dick Cheney in his undisclosed location than to get your local news anchorperson on the phone. Too few newspapers and almost no broadcast outlets make it easy for their readers, listeners and viewers to contact their employees, whether to correct an error or suggest a story idea. Some newspaper websites don't even list their main phone number! Every newspaper by-line should carry its writer's direct phone number and email address, and they should be required to return their messages.

China stocks copper in Shanghai, prepares to cover LME positions
China is believed to have to scramble to meet the LME's requirement to deliver physical copper to approved LME warehouses. The futures contracts Liu traded will fall due on December 21, according to media reports.

China's welfare push to help economic rebalancing

White House used 'gossip' to build case for war

U.S. Press for Reform Prompts Talk of Showdown at the U.N.

Bush Discusses Murtha and Says Progress in Iraq is 'Amazing'

How the Bush administration got spooked

Quick Overview

• The New-York based Conference Board said its index of leading indicators rose 0.9 to 137.9 in October after a downwardly revised 0.8 percent decline in September.
  

• Canada's retail sales were down 0.9%, but up 5.5% YoY.
  

• YoY Indonesia's GDP was up 5.3% in the third quarter.
  

• Mexican retail sales rose 5.2 % in September.
  
  

• The Bank of Japan should move to a policy of raising interest rates soon and should be proactive in communicating to markets how it will go about such a policy shift, a Japanese business lobby said.
  
  
  

• Venezuela and Argentina bolstered ties on Monday with energy and commerce deals after their presidents discussed Venezuela's entry into the South American Mercosur trade pact and alternatives to U.S. proposals for the region.

• Gasoline pump prices continued to drop in the two weeks ended Friday, declining 18 cents to an average $2.27 a gallon for all grades, analyst Trilby Lundberg reported in her latest survey on Sunday.

• General Motors plans to close nine North American plants and cut 30,000 jobs in an effort to trim costs, news services reported Monday

• Rail freight traffic fell for the week of Nov. 12, however intermodal continued to rise compared to the same week last year , the Association of American Railroads reported.

We Must Hold the Scoundrels Accountable
Bush’s public support has plummeted. A majority of Americans believe Bush lied about Iraq having weapons of mass destruction and now they doubt his integrity. Trapped in their lies, Bush and Cheney are lashing out at critics, proving once again the truth of Samuel Johnson’s 18th century observation that "patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel."

Senate committee passes spyware bill
A U.S. Senate committee has approved a bill that would outlaw the practice of remotely installing software that collects a computer users' personal information without consent.

<How U.S. Fell Under the Spell of 'Curveball'
The senior BND officer who supervised Curveball's case said he was aghast when he watched Powell misstate Curveball's claims as a justification for war.

Global shipping: Challenges ahead
As on January 1, 2005, the world trading fleet was made up of 46,222 ships, with a combined 597,709,000 gross tonnes. The vast bulk of the fleet was made up of: general cargo ships (18,150), tankers (11,356), bulk carriers (6,139), passenger ships (5,679) and container ships (3,165). Other ship types accounted for 1,733 vessels.

The World's Best Ethical Travel Destinations

Our most notable and unexpected result is that Latin America emerges as the leader in ethical travel. While certain of our recommended destinations are already popular (Brazil, Costa Rica, and Peru), other top countries (Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Ecuador, and Uruguay) also have much to offer American tourists. Argentina has a vast array of natural wonders: from glaciers in the Andes to pre-Columbian villages in the North. Belize hosts Mayan ruins, as well as a lush rainforest. Uruguay, not as well known, contains spectacular beaches as well as trekking in the interior.

The Federal Reserve announced that as of March 2006, M-3 will no longer be posted.

M(3)urder Will Out!
Thus, the abandonment of M3 could disguise this Reichsbank-like response to America’s hypothetical future ills for some little while thence, delaying market fears of a hyperinflationary outcome, and so keeping "Blackhawk" Bernanke hovering over the scene of the emergency for a little longer than might otherwise be the case.

China copper trade woes send prices to new peaks
Officials for the centre and the bureau have told Reuters that any short positions were made on his own authority, adding to the uncertainty of whether the bureau will honour the obligations. If it refuses to do so, that could leave brokers facing huge losses.

The food you eat may change your genes for life
Szyf says his study shows how important subtle nutrients and supplements can be. "Food has a dramatic effect," he says. "But it can go both ways," he cautions. Methionine, for instance, the supplement he used to make healthy rats stressed, is widely available in capsule form online or in health-food stores - and the molecules are small enough to get into the brain via the bloodstream.

Survey Finds Deep Discontent With American Foreign Policy

Tortured men look like 'Holocaust victims

Pentagon To Probe Feith's Role In Iraq War

Lobbyist Probe Sparks Senate Fireworks

Quick Overview

• The European Central Bank is ready to raise interest rates moderately, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Friday, sending a clear signal it will tighten rates in December for the first time in five years
  

• Argentina's jobless rate fell to 11.1 percent in the third quarter from 13.2 percent in the same period last year.
  

• The British government posted a 2.2 billion pound surplus in October, up from a shortfall of 1.7 billion pounds a year ago. Revenues were up almost 10% YoY, while spending was down 3%.
  

• Canada's wholesale sales totaled C$39.9 billion in September, down 0.1% on the month and up 5.6% YoY
  

• The Bank of Japan said the nation's economy is continuing to recover.
  

• There are rumors the Chinese government may decline to own up to the 200,000 ton copper short position that their absconded trader left it with.
  

• The USDA said there were 11.475 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.2% YoY. Placements in October were up 3.5% YoY and marketing’s were down 3.3%.
  

• The United States and the European Union reached a tentative deal on Friday expand aviation service and boost competition on both sides of the Atlantic
  
  

• UPS Inc. said it will raise its commercial ground services rates by 3.9% and its air and international services rates by 5.5% in 2006.