Notes Today:

• Murmurs of inflation are ongoing. However, the Fed still sees the risk of inflation to the downside; they think a rate that’s too low is more likely than one that’s too high.

• Aren’t January 6^th insurrectionists on the no-fly list? But, but, it's all my kid's fault!

• A 2011 Texas investigation after similar cold weather-related disruptions proved the need to harden energy infrastructure against freezing temps. Texas never did anything about it...

• No Abbott, it’s not the windmills – it’s you and your republicans. 

• U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 861,000 last week, up 13,000 from an upwardly revised 848,000 in the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 64,000 to 4.49 million.

• The average Mortgage Rate in U.S for a 30-year fixed loan was 2.81%, up from 2.73% last week and the highest since November,

• Texas has halted sales of natural gas outside the state. Could be a problem with the Constitution's Commerce Clause.

 Bloomberg: It turns out that wild fluctuations in polar airflow that many experts blame on  climate change are bad for the industry most responsible for causing it. U.S. oil production has plunged by more than 2 million barrels a day as the coldest weather in 30 years wreaks havoc on key producing states that rarely have to deal with frigid Arctic blasts. Indeed, the unforgiving weather has pushed natural gas prices at one trading hub up 24,000% from just a week ago, halting fracking and even Amazon. Renewable sources also are in trouble, as are power companies. Don’t understand how a hotter planet can be responsible for bone-chilling cold? This is how the science works. —David E. Rovella

Hey Musk and Ellison, are you two dudes moving out of Texas and back to California where the weather is nice and the lights are on? Perhaps paying a bit in taxes to keep the lights on – not such a bad idea.

 Today's front page of the NY Daily News

 By kaltoons

 Quick Overview  is up to date.

 Trump acquitted  .. Sad! Tragic!

" The President was guilty of everything he was accused of...which is why I voted to acquit" Jon Stewart

 Persistent 50-year decline in wages. Share of GDP.

 Notes Today: 

• It seems that the attempted Silver short squeeze by the Reddit crowd has at least temporarily failed. Yet, rising demand as the economy picks up steam may drive prices higher in the long run.

 

• QuickOverview is up to date. 

• Guardian: The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit.

•  Bloomberg: Commodities have been on a tear since March and have surged to the highest level in more than six years, with rallies in everything from iron ore to soybeans, copper, and corn. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Ospraie Management LLC are among institutions that have endorsed raw materials as investment plays and predict they have more room to climb.

Notes Today: 

• Adjusting for the people that have dropped out of the labor force, by choice or obligation, the unemployment rate is around 9.5%,” estimated lead U.S. economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics. 

• Consumer credit in the United States increased by $9.73 billion in December of 2020 after rising by a downwardly revised $13.93 billion in the previous month, 

• Bloomberg: By the end of last year, more than 30% of U.S. homeowners were considered equity-rich -- meaning their property was worth twice as much as the underlying mortgage, a report showed. 

• Exxon Mobil posted its first annual loss in at least 40 years. 

• South Korea returned to first place in the latest Bloomberg Innovation Index, while the U.S. dropped out of a top 10 that features a cluster of European countries
  
  
  

 

 

• Guardian: The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.

• President Biden is supposedly on pace to save the U.S.  $124m this year by just not golfing. 

Fox has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight” one day after the host was named in a multibillion dollar defamation lawsuit against the network and its parent company.👍😂

Silver is starting the week higher as the reddit crowd piles in. Dealers said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.

 How much you'll need to earn before you purchase a home.

 US Corn sales (via Thomas Elder Markets)

USDA: Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 49.4 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the United States. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast higher.

The ICE and cotton:

Effective with the start of trading for trade date Friday, January 29, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months will revert to 3 cents per pound (300 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month. 

Effective with the start of trading for Monday, February 1, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months per pound (400 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month.

 

Compensation in private industry and state and local government, 3-month percent change:

It's maybe only a matter of time before the WallStreetBets crowd come after the soybean and corn market. The thing is: corn and soybeans may have a bullish story backing things up.  
For solid fundamental analysis listen to Steve Freed of ADM.

 Notes Today: 

• The Fed left interest rate unchanged and stuck with the current pace of bond-buying. 

• Gold is having its worst January performance since 2011. 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

• Fed's Powell: Don't blame us for GameStop frenzy.

  

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• Bloomberg: WallStreetBets, fueling a frenzy of retail trading, briefly turned itself off to new users Wednesday after a deluge of new participants raised concerns about its ability to moderate content, a notice on the website said. 

• Bloomberg: The world’s first exchange-traded fund solely for psychedelic-drug companies will debut this week in Toronto, a reflection of the investment industry’s desire to capitalize on rising interest in prospective mental health treatments using the drugs. The Horizons Psychedelic Stock Index ETF, listed as PSYK, is expected to start trading Wednesday on the NEO Exchange. 

• Australia says “inevitable” that Google will have to pay for news. 

• Oklahoma wants to return its $2 Million Stockpile of Hydroxychloroquine. The state bought over a million pills last year after Trump pushed, with 0 evidence, the use of the drug as a COVID-19 treatment. 

• Remarkably busy with alternate history - Deborah Birx saw the president presenting graphs she never made.

• New Zealand said it would likely keep its borders closed to the world through most of 2021.

• Robert Reich: Spare me the Republican party’s fake outrage about the deficit. The GOP’s tax cut for the rich added $1,900,000,000,000 to the debt. When billionaires and corporations are getting a payout, the GOP couldn’t care less about the national debt.

• Unilever (UL):The uses of this unique technology are almost limitless,” says Unilever’s Vice President for Science & Technology, Unilever Homecare, Dr Jon Hague, including tackling some of the biggest societal and environmental challenges of the 21st century where microbial biofilms are commonplace.

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date