Quick Overview

• EU producer price index rose 0.3% in June.

• U.S. factory orders fell 1.2% in June

• The U.S. savings rate rose to 6.4% in June -- the highest level in a year.

• U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to 75.7 in June, partly reflecting the end of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers of up to $8,000.

• Moscow says grain stocks will balance drought-ravaged crop – easing wheat prices back.

• (Bloomberg) -- Russia should ban grain exports this season temporarily to allow suppliers to renege on contracts as the worst drought in at least 50 years threatens to leave local demand unmet, Glencore International AG’s Russian unit said.

• Many popular dietary supplements contain ingredients that may cause cancer, heart problems, liver or kidney damage, but U.S. stores sell them anyway and Americans spend millions on them, according to Consumer Reports.

Quick Overview

• S.Korea’s exports up 29.6% YoY

• MSCI Asia ex-Japan index up 1%

• China's PMI index fell to a 17-month low of 51.2 from 52.1 in June.

• Farm production in Pakistan, Asia’s third-largest grower of wheat and the fourth-biggest producer of cotton, may decline 10 percent to 15 percent because of damage caused by the worst flooding in memory, according to an industry official.

• Wheat prices continued to rally over possible wheat export controls in the Black Sea states, which continue to suffer from their worst drought in over a century. Russia produces about 8% of world wheat output.

• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index fell to 55.5% in July from 56.2% in June. The decline was not as sharp as expected.

• (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is improving but has yet to recover fully, with high unemployment and a weak housing market weighing on consumers, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday.

Hot political summer as China throttles rare metal supply and claims South China Sea
The US Magnetic Materials Association said America has drifted into a "silent crisis" and needs to crank up its own supply chain within three to five years."Immediate action must be taken to free the US from complete foreign dominance."

Quick Overview

• China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand more than 9 percent in 2010, Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said Friday.

• Chinas purchasing managers’ index fell to 51.2 from 52.1 in June

• The Canadian Wheat Board expects this year's crop to fall 17% YoY
• The wheat harvest in western Canada was pegged at 18.45m tonnes, a reduction of 450,000 tonnes on its estimate last month.
• Durum, the type of wheat used in pasta, production estimate was cut by 300,000 tonnes to 2.9m tonnes -- half last year's production.
• Barley harvest was cut by 100,000 tonnes to 7.5m tonnes.

• A survey shows that global chief executives have ranked the increasing complexity of the global economy as the top challenge facing businesses this decade.

• While the Unites States is only in fourth place as a solar energy market, behind Germany, Italy and Japan, its solar energy technology is farther advanced than any other country in the world, Rhone Resch, president and CEO of the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association, said.

• German grain production will fall as much as 11% to 44 million metric tons from last year, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH said.

• (Arlan Suderman) FSU drought persists, cncrns expand to corn.

Quick Overview

• Spanish unemployment rose for a 12th consecutive quarter to 20.09%, its highest level since the end of 1997 and up from 20.05% in Q1.

• The U.S. Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at a 2.4% annual rate, less than the 2.5% analysts expected.

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in June from 5.2% in May.
• Japan’s household spending rose 0.5% in June on a yearly basis
• Japan’s inflation was flat MoM and down 0.7% YoY•
• Japan’s industrial production fell 1.5%.

• EU CPI rose to 1.7% in July
• EU unemployment at 10% in June.

• Italy’s PPI rose 3.4% YoY.
• Italy’s CPI rose 1.7% YoY

• UK’s consumer confidence index fell to -22 in July

• German import price of iron ore increased by 38.9% YoY and was up 18.1 MoM.

• Germany’s wheat harvest, Europe’s second-largest, may fall as much as 8.7% on dry weather and “extremely high” temperatures, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH said

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1%

• Germany’s unemployment rate was 7.6% up 0.1% MoM. A total of 3.192 million people were registered as unemployed.

• The European Union's top court ruled that Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB-InBev) may not register "Budweiser" as a trademark in the bloc, ending a 14-year legal battle over the name with a Czech brewer.

• German retail sales fell 0.9% MoM but rose 3.1% YoY

• YoY Intermodal rail traffic increased 19.2% last week, the Association of American Railroads said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 11,000 in the week ended July 24 from a revised 468,000

• EU economic sentiment indicator for the 16-nation currency area rose to 101.3 in July, a 28-month high, from an upwardly revised 99.0 in June.

• Profits of China's industrial enterprises climbed 71.8% Yoy to hit 1.61 trillion yuan (237.5 billion U.S. dollars) in the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said

• Exxon's second-quarter income nearly doubled to $7.56 billion.

• Shell’s second-quarter profit rose 94 per cent to $4.53bn

• Total wheat export sales of 919,900 tons for the week ended July 22 topped estimates of 250,000 to 450,000 tons.

• New Zealand hiked its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%.

• US economic activity has ‘continued to increase’ over the past seven weeks but there are signs of a slowdown, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey.

• Swedish consumer confidence rose to a 10-year high of 23.3 up from 22.0 MoM

• (Skilling) Chicago area established the city's longest string of consecutive above 80-degree highs since weather records began 140 years ago.

Research says climate change undeniable
Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the UK’s Met Office, said the research based on a total of 11 indicators painted a clear picture of all of the earth’s important climate systems: “The fingerprints are clear... The glaringly obvious explanation for this is warming from greenhouse gases

Quick Overview

• Australian consumer prices rose by less than expected. QoQ Australia’s consumer price index rose 0.6%, and 3.1% YoY.

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% in June after a revised 0.8 % fall in May, making the decline the largest since last August. Analysts had forecast orders rising.

• German consumer prices rose 1.1%YoY and 0.2 % MoM. 

• The DOE said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 7.31 million barrels to 360.8 million in the week ended July 23. More Than expected
• Gasoline inventories rose by 100,000 barrels to 222.2 million barrels
• Demand for gasoline rose 2.1 % YoY
• U.S. refineries ran at 90.6% of total capacity.
• Supplies of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 900,000 barrels to 167.5 million barrels.

• YoY Chile's industrial output rose 2.9%

• White House budget chief Peter Orszag said it would be "foolish" to cut the U.S. deficit while economic growth was still frail, but it would be equally foolish not to significantly curb the deficit by 2015.

• Russian wheat production estimates are falling daily! Yesterday’s temperature in Moscow was the highest since Russia began keeping records 130 years ago.

• The London Metal Exchange on Wednesday merges its two regional steel futures contracts Mediterranean and Far East to create a global one, aiming to generate more business in Asia, where metals trading is on the rise.

• Containerized imports at the Port of Seattle exploded last month, increasing 93.3 % YoY

• Intel Corporation today announced an important advance in the quest to use light beams to replace the use of electrons to carry data in and around computers. The company has developed a research prototype representing the world's first silicon-based optical data connection with integrated lasers. The link can move data over longer distances and many times faster than today's copper technology; up to 50 gigabits of data per second. This is the equivalent of an entire HD movie being transmitted each second.

Quick Overview

• India raised rates.  Repo rate and reverse repo rate move up to 5.75 percent and 4.5 percent, from 5.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

• (Reuters) Russia on Tuesday denied market talk it was restricting grain exports, pulling European wheat prices back from contract highs but not ending concerns about the impact of Russia's worst drought in years.

• (Bloomberg) Corn prices will average about 9 percent more in the first three months of 2011 than they have since July 1 because smaller crops in Europe, Russia and Ukraine will boost demand for U.S. exports to Asia, according to Rabobank Group.

• The Conference Board’s U.S. confidence index fell to 50.4 from a revised 54.3 in June

• Improvement in India’s monsoon showers has given hope for above normal rains in August-September, a weather official said.

• Australia's leading economic Index increased 0.3% and the Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2% in May.

• Japan’s corporate service prices fell 1.0% in June.

• Germany’s import prices rose 0.9% MoM. YoY import price index rose 9.1%

• Germany’s consumer confidence index rose to 3.9 in August, up from a revised 3.6 in July

• (Arlan Suderman) Local reports suggest that up to 20% of Argentina's wheat may go unplanted due to dryness

• DP World said it handled 23.7 million 20-foot equivalent container units at its 50 operating terminals in the first half of 2010, an increase of 16 percent on the same period last year and ahead of the 2008 figure

• YoY the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values rose 4.6 % in May -- the biggest YoY gain since August 2006

Shipping Bottoming as China Steel Rebound Lifts Ore (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- The smallest profits in the commodity shipping market in 18 months may be ending as a rebound in steel and iron-ore prices signal improving Chinese demand that will ease the transport glut

Quick Overview

• YoY Japan’s exports rose 27.7% in June. Shipments to Asia, which account for more than half of Japan's total exports, rose 31.7 %.

• South Koreas GDP rose 1.5% QoQ

• The Commerce Department said sales of new U.S. single-family homes jumped 23.6% to a 330,000 unit annual rate from a downwardly revised 267,000 units in May.

• Japan's government needs to weaken the yen and adopt more expansionary monetary policies to beat deflation, according to the leader of a small opposition party which is being seen as a possible government ally

Quick Overview

• Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, said it was likely that Russia is going to harvest only 80 million tonnes of grain in 2010, compared with 97 million last year.

• (Mcclatchy Newspapers) The nation's farmers could face severe restrictions on the use of pesticides as environmentalists, spurred by a favorable ruling from a judge in Washington state , want the courts to force federal regulators to protect endangered species from the ill effects of agricultural chemicals.

• The U.S. economy is not likely to slip back into recession but letting tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans expire is necessary to show commitment to cutting budget deficits, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Sunday.

• China's port box volumes up 7.3 - 13.9% in first half of 2010

The Death of Paper Money
As they prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.

Quick Overview

• Microsoft (MSFT) and ARM (ARMH) announced that they have signed a new licensing agreement for the ARM(R) architecture

• Adverse weather is slashing production of wheat in Russia and Canada, two of the world’s four-biggest exporters.

• (Reuters) - Seven of 91 European banks have failed stress tests and show an overall capital shortfall of 3.5 billion Euros, the organizers of the tests said on Friday.

• General Electric (GE) is raising its quarterly dividend by 2 cents.

• Russia produced 1.837 million metric tons of refined sugar from imported raws from Jan. 1-July 19, up 25.39%

• Yesterday, Starbucks (SBUX) raised its dividend to 13 cents per share from 10 cents

• Existing-home sales fell by 5.1% to an annual rate of 5.37 million, the
  National Association of Realtors said Thursday

Quick Overview

• (Dow Jones)--Investors' reaction will be negative to Hungary's failure over the weekend to reach a deal with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union that would allow it to draw on the remainder of its existing EUR20 billion IMF/EU standby credit line.

• Wow... the Baltic Dry Index broke a run of 35 straight down days by closing a modest 20 points higher at 1720 on Friday.

• June London Retail sales rose 14.4% YoY.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Japan's Tertiary industry index fell  0.9%  in May.

• MoM The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index fell to 66.5  from 76

• Ex Fed chief Greenspan thinks Congress should let the tax cuts enacted by  Bush expire for all Americans in order to address the widening deficit.

• MoM the US CPI fell 0.1% -- the third straight monthly decline. However, the annualized rate came in better than expected at 1.1%.

• Citigroup fell 4% to $3.99 after reporting second-quarter profits dropped 38%.

• GE reported a 16% increase in quarterly profit -- ending a streak of nine down quarters.

• Google reported second-quarter profits that missed analysts’ estimates.

• YoY the US cocoa grind rose 12% in Q2 to 117,657 MT

• Assets held in Japan’s first exchange-traded funds backed by gold and other precious metals may increase eight-fold in a year as investors seek to protect their wealth in the country with the world’s biggest public debt -- said Osamu Hoshi, deputy general manager at Mitsubishi Trust and Banking

• U.S. senate passes financial reform bill -- Obama wants to sign it next week.

• India's M3 money supply rose an annual 15.3%, up from 14.5% in June

• China's July soybean imports will be 5.8 million metric tons, up 32% YoY, China's Ministry of Commerce reports Thursday.

• U.S. Lawmakers are considering lowering a tax credit for ethanol blenders from 45¢/gall to 36¢.

• (Reuters) - The world is enduring the hottest year on record, according to a U.S. national weather analysis, causing droughts worldwide and a concern for U.S. farmers counting on another bumper year.
  For the first six months of the year, 2010 has been warmer than the first half of 1998, the previous record holder, by 0.03 degree Fahrenheit, said Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at the federal National Climatic Data Center.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• US producer prices fell 0.5% in June, signaling a slow economy.

• China's CPI, the country's key inflation gauge, rose 2.9% YoY, but fell 0.6% MoM. The decline from the previous month was mainly due to falling food prices.

• (RealtyTrac) US Banks took control of 269,962 properties in the second quarter, up 5 % from the prior quarter and a 38 % spike from the second quarter of last year -- Repossessions will likely top 1 million this year. From January through June one out of every 17 households in Nevada received a foreclosure notice.

• The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but raised its economic forecast for the current fiscal year.

• Japan revised June machine tool orders up 139.5%.

• Novartis says Q2 profit up 19%

• Wheat contracts hit a seven-month high as 14 regions of the Russian federation declare a state of emergency, with 11 of them seeing half their sown land destroyed. The ongoing drought in Russia is reported to have "killed 52.3 percent of grain seedlings in the Ulyanovsk region," according to a news report by news agency TASS.
  
  
  
  Overnight weather models are warmer and drier for the Midwest

• (Reuters) - India's monsoon rains, vital for farm output gains after last year's drought, were 24 percent below normal in the past week and unlikely to rebound in the week ahead, the weather office said, raising fears of crop loss..

• Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region cooled to 5.1 this month as orders fell for the first time in a year, signaling the expansion is slowing.

• U.S. industrial output rose 0.1% in June.

• The number of people submitting unemployment insurance benefits fell to 429,000 last week, the lowest level since August 2008

• J.P. Morgan (JPM )said its second-quarter net profit rose 76%

• FG/Agro said Brazil’s’ main center-south is expected to crush 588 million metric tons of cane in the ongoing 2010-11 crop season. This compares to the earlier estimate in March of 595 million MT.

• (Reuters) Drought caused by a hot spell over the past month has hurt rice fields in central Vietnam, with nearly 100,000 hectares (247,100 acres) destroyed or partly destroyed, a state-run newspaper reported on Thursday.

Baltic dries up FOR most of the past two decades the main measure of shipping costs has been used as a guide to what is happening to world trade. So the fact that the Baltic Dry Index—which measures the rates charged for chartering the giant ships that carry coal, iron ore and grain—has fallen by almost 60% in its longest streak of consecutive declines for nine years (34 days running as of July 14th) has won attention.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.5% last month, with consumers cutting back for a second straight month.

• U.S. business inventories rose 0.1%, the highest since June, following a 0.4% increase in April.

• Demand for home purchase loans fell to a 13-year low last week, and refinancing demand also slid despite near record-low mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

• EU area annual inflation was 1.4% in June, down from 1.6% MoM

• EU Industrial output rose by 0.9% MoM and was up 9.4% compared to May 2009

• Brazilian retail sales rose 1.4% MoM

• Australian consumer confidence rose 11.1% during July, compared with a previous reading -5.7% in June.
• Ports in China posted a 19% growth in throughput to 3.18 billion tonnes in the first five months. The container freight volume increased 22.5% to 56.3 million TEU.
  
  The DOE said:

• Supplies of crude oil fell 5.1 million barrels (Analysts had expected a drop of 2.6 million barrels)
• Supplies of gasoline rose 1.6 million barrels
• Supplies of heating oil and diesel rose 2.9 million barrels
• Refineries operated at 90.5% of capacity

• U.S. wheat futures rose to a six-month high on Wednesday, gathering strength from hot, dry weather in Europe that has led to cuts in crop forecasts. Forecasts for wheat crops in Germany and Ukraine were lowered, while drought in Russia and excessive wetness in Canada also point toward smaller crops.

• Corn and soybeans rose to a three-month high on speculation that a heat wave may damage crops in the US

• Goldman Sachs has upped their 3-month price forecast for grains:
  
  GS sees corn reaching $4.15 vs. their previous estimate of $3.75 per bushel.
  
  6-months out, corn prices are seen reaching $4.50 vs. $4.00.
  
  Soybean 3-month outlook seen at $9.75 v. $9.25,
  
  6-month out GS sees prices reaching $9.50 vs. $9.00.
  
  Wheat 3-month outlook is seen at $5.20 v s. $4.75.
  
  6-month out wheat is seen reaching $5.50 vs. $5.00.

• (Bloomberg)Sugar exports from Thailand, the world’s second-biggest shipper, may plunge 20 percent next year as delayed rain lowers yields and increasing domestic consumption slashes export availability, an official body said

• Cocoa hits its highest since September 1977 after data show consumption by European confectioners growing at its fastest in a decade
  

Quick Overview

• Intel reported the best quarter in its history. (FT)

• QoQ Singapre's GDP expanded at a 26% annual pace

• China's leading credit rating agency has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France of their AAA ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in favor of the West.

• The Chinese government said it will “strictly enforce” policies enacted to quash real estate speculation -- driving developers and lenders lower.

• U.S. Earnings season starts with strong Alcoa, CSX results. The companies had nothing but good things to say, making it harder to find evidence of this double-dip recession.

• U.S. trade gap unexpectedly widens to $42.3 billion in May, up from $40.3 billion in April

• (Bloomberg) Rubber tumbled for a third day to the lowest level in more than a month on concern that slower car sales growth in China may signal weaker demand, while supplies from Thailand increased.

• (Bloomberg) China, the world’s biggest consumer of vegetable oils, may import about 200,000 metric tons of soybean oil each month from July to September, the portal Grain.gov.cn said in an e-mailed report.

• Japanese consumer confidence improved to 43.5 in June from 42.8 in May, the highest level since September 2007.

• The chief executive of the world's biggest copper producing company, Codelco, says he expects to see continued demand for the metal from China to fuel the country's industrial boom

• (Reuters) - U.S. researchers have created a primitive artificial lung that rats used to breathe for several hours and said on Tuesday it may be a step in the development of new organs grown from a patient's own cells.