Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.5% last month, with consumers cutting back for a second straight month.

• U.S. business inventories rose 0.1%, the highest since June, following a 0.4% increase in April.

• Demand for home purchase loans fell to a 13-year low last week, and refinancing demand also slid despite near record-low mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

• EU area annual inflation was 1.4% in June, down from 1.6% MoM

• EU Industrial output rose by 0.9% MoM and was up 9.4% compared to May 2009

• Brazilian retail sales rose 1.4% MoM

• Australian consumer confidence rose 11.1% during July, compared with a previous reading -5.7% in June.
• Ports in China posted a 19% growth in throughput to 3.18 billion tonnes in the first five months. The container freight volume increased 22.5% to 56.3 million TEU.
  
  The DOE said:

• Supplies of crude oil fell 5.1 million barrels (Analysts had expected a drop of 2.6 million barrels)
• Supplies of gasoline rose 1.6 million barrels
• Supplies of heating oil and diesel rose 2.9 million barrels
• Refineries operated at 90.5% of capacity

• U.S. wheat futures rose to a six-month high on Wednesday, gathering strength from hot, dry weather in Europe that has led to cuts in crop forecasts. Forecasts for wheat crops in Germany and Ukraine were lowered, while drought in Russia and excessive wetness in Canada also point toward smaller crops.

• Corn and soybeans rose to a three-month high on speculation that a heat wave may damage crops in the US

• Goldman Sachs has upped their 3-month price forecast for grains:
  
  GS sees corn reaching $4.15 vs. their previous estimate of $3.75 per bushel.
  
  6-months out, corn prices are seen reaching $4.50 vs. $4.00.
  
  Soybean 3-month outlook seen at $9.75 v. $9.25,
  
  6-month out GS sees prices reaching $9.50 vs. $9.00.
  
  Wheat 3-month outlook is seen at $5.20 v s. $4.75.
  
  6-month out wheat is seen reaching $5.50 vs. $5.00.

• (Bloomberg)Sugar exports from Thailand, the world’s second-biggest shipper, may plunge 20 percent next year as delayed rain lowers yields and increasing domestic consumption slashes export availability, an official body said

• Cocoa hits its highest since September 1977 after data show consumption by European confectioners growing at its fastest in a decade