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• Radiation from cell phones can possibly cause cancer, according to the World Health Organization. The agency now lists mobile phone use in the same "carcinogenic hazard" category as lead, engine exhaust and chloroform.

• The U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 79.3, the ninth straight increase, from 76.4 the prior month. 77.8 was expected

• (FT) Unexpected rise in sentiment from France and Germany helps Eurofirst 300 to weekly gain of 1.5% but Spanish markets hit by Bankia share suspension.

• Germany will not "pour money into a bottomless pit" and patience with Greece is growing thin ahead of a new election next month, according to a member of Angela Merkel's cabinet.

• Spanish Bank Bankia will reportedly ask the state for more than €15bn to bail it out when its new management team presents a restructuring plan.
• Barclays says Spain's housing collapse is only half way through. RE prices will have to fall another 20% to clear an overhang of one million excess properties.

• Bluefin tuna that spans off the coast of Japan is found with levels of radioactive cesium 10 times higher than the amount measured in tuna off the California coast in previous years.

• Standard & Poor estimates that companies in Europe, the US and Asia require a combination of refinancing and new money to fund growth over the next four years of between $43 trillion and $46 trillion.

Next Update Sunday

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• (Telegraph) Germany's largest industrial union secures biggest pay rise for members in two decades in what is seen as a major breakthrough in dealing with the euro zone’s chronic imbalances.
• At least 20,000 demonstrators marched through Frankfurt on Saturday in a peaceful protest against austerity measures.
• Obama pressed Europe to shift toward a more pro-growth policy and away from austerity to tackle a crisis that threatens to push Greece out of the euro zone and send economic shockwaves worldwide.

• Half of world platinum producers are facing losses at the current price.

• Brazil’s wealthy are set to double in the next 11 years.

• China, the world's second-largest economy, which produces more carbon dioxide emissions than any other country, plans to start seven pilot trading schemes.

• (FT) Concerns over the past few weeks about limited rainfall in southern Russia push US benchmark prices for the grain to an eight-month high.
• WXRISK.COM ‏SUMMER FORECAST UPDATE- new CFS plots show El Nino develops LATE- SEPT /OCT so current pattern /trends may last into ALL of JULY- early AUG.
• WXRISK.COM ‏SUMMER FORECAST#2 -- NEW CFS model plots for JUNE & JULY look MUCH Hotter & MUCH drier for Plains/ Midwest. Huge change from late APRIL

Next Update Sunday

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• Intel approved a 7% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to 22.5 cents per share, 90 cents per share on an annual basis.

• Walt Disney (DIS) quarterly earnings beat Wall Street expectations as profit rose 21%.

• Poland raised rates to 4.75%

• Brazil’s CPI rose 5.1% YoY

• Modern Banker JPMorgan, celebrated for its “controls”, said it lost $2 Billion “in six weeks” because of poor controls – quite the feat - more to disclose? Mr. Dimon recently responded to a question about too big to fail as “infantile” and “nonfactual.” (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)
• The U.S. has made "considerable progress" in restoring its banking system since the financial crisis, said  Bernanke. (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)
• S&P cuts outlook on J.P. Morgan Chase to negative, citing risk management  (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)

• China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% YoY in April
• China’s consumer confidence stood at 86.65 in April, down 0.12% points from March.
• China will lower the bank reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% starting May 18. The cut, the second of its kind this year, this will drop the RRR for the country's large financial institutions to 20% and the medium- and small-sized financial institutions to 16.5%.

• Gasoline stocks fell2.6 million barrels.
• Distillate stocks decreased 3.3 million barrels
• Ethanol stocks fell to 21.4 million barrels, down from 22.2 million the previous week

• USDA estimates soybean stocks to use at 4.4%. This is equivalent to two weeks' worth of use, and the lowest stocks-to-use figure since 1965-66.

• Home Inns (HMIN) revenues rose 66.0% YoY

• FDA advisers recommended approval of Arena’s (ARNA) lorcaserin -- could be first new weight loss drug in a decade.

• Spain's annual inflation rose to 2% in April, up from 1.8% in the previous month
• At least 100,000 Spaniards angered by grim economic prospects and the political handling of the international financial crisis turned out for street demonstrations. 
• Spanish banks have been given 15 days to submit plans to meet an obligatory €30bn recapitalisation, or face nationalisation.

• The top U.S. grain groups on Thursday called for federal regulators to delay the start of 22-hour grains trading at CME Group and rival (ICE) Intercontinental Exchange.

• (TEF) Telefonica posted a net profit of EUR748 million in Q1, down 54% from EUR1.62 billion in the same period a year earlier, missing forecasts of EUR1.31 billion.

• The U.S. producer price index fell 0.2% in April

• China’s gold output in the first three months of the year reached 80.8 tonnes, up 10% YoY.

• The U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to a new post-recession high of 77.8

• Chinese ratings provider Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. said Friday that it upgraded the local and foreign currency sovereign credit rating of Greece from D to CC with a negative outlook.

Next Update Saturday May 12

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• Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett's company said Friday its first-quarter profit more than doubled.

• Euro-zone unemployment rose to a new 15-year high of 10.9% U.S. factory orders fell 1.5% in March

• Steve Wozniak, a co-founder of Apple, describes the Nokia Lumia screen as "much more beautiful" than that of the iPhone and Android phones.   ( Comparison )

• Australia cuts interest rate by larger-than-expected half-point to 3.75%

• Indonesia’s Inflation Accelerates to Seven-Month High of 4.5%

• U.S Crude oil stocks rose 2.8 million barrels in the week ending April 27.
• Gasoline stocks fell 2.0 million barrels.
• Distillate stocks fell 1.9 million barrels.

• Bloomberg: The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market. The rate dropped to 65.4 percent from 66 percent in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in a report . That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2 percent in June 2004.

• The CME announced, that beginning May 13 for trade date May 14, customers will have expanded access to CBOT corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options on CME. Globex as follows: •Sunday to Monday, 5:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT •Monday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT. (Hell, they could lose 5 cents to the ICE) Change in plans (CME f/u) will be delayed by one week to May 21.

• “The Scream" sells for record $119.9 million at Sotheby's auction, far exceeding $80 million estimate. ( Somebody is smiling )

• In reference to Mr. Obama’s remarks regarding speculators. "People need to study their facts before criticizing speculators," said Mr. Duffy, whose Chicago Company is the largest futures exchange, said in an interview. He pointed out “correctly” that speculators provide vital liquidity to a host of markets.

• AIG net income rose to $3.2 billion, or $1.71 a share, in the three months that ended March 31.

• (Guardian) seven in ten Americans now believe that "global warming is affecting the weather." 35 % of the respondents reported that extreme weather had affected them personally in 2011.

• Japan's last active reactor has shut down, leaving the country without nuclear energy for the first time since 1970. All 50 commercial reactors in the country are now offline. LNG Heading for Asia?

Next Update Sunday May 6

Hollande's 'Growth Bloc' spells end of German hegemony in Europe  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

For two years Germany has had its way in Europe, treating historic nations much as Bismarck treated Bavaria – sovereign only in name.

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• U.S. economic expansion eased to 2.2% in Q1
• U.S. consumer sentiment levels off; it only rose to 76.4 from 76.2 in March
• U.S. first time claims for unemployment benefits decreased 1,000 to 388,000. 24.4 % of

• Spanish workforce are unemployed BOJ announces additional 62 bln USD monetary easing program

• The growth of China's inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.3%in April from the previous month with the slowing of food price rises, according to a report released by the Bank of Communications.

• EQIX revenues rose 25% YoY.

• UN (Unilever) announced sales growth of 8.4% with emerging markets up 11.9% and developed markets up 4.2%.

• BAYRY (Bayer) Earnings rose 14% to EUR1.59 billion

• HGSI’s loss narrowed to $93.5 million (loss of 47 cents per diluted share) from $131 million (loss of 69 cents per share) YoY. Revenue rose 77.4% to $47.1 million from the year-earlier quarter.

• (NYT) Upward mobile consumers from much poorer countries are about to surpass Americans in their share of the world economy. Living standards in the developing world are improving so quickly that those countries are now beginning to drive global economic growth.

• The National Association of Realtors reports that pending home sales increased 4.1% in March to a new 23-month high.

• Starbucks announced that for the quarter ended April 1, profit was $309.9 million, or 40 cents a share, up from $261.6 million or 34 cents a share in the same 2011 period. Revenue climbed 15% to $3.2 billion.

• Titanic director James Cameron is backing a company with Google billionaires Larry Page and Eric Schmidt to mine asteroids in space, called Planetary Resources.

Big Changes in Ocean Salinity Intensifying Water Cycle
"Changes to the global water cycle and the corresponding redistribution of rainfall will affect food availability, stability, access, and utilization," says lead author Paul Durack at the University of Tasmania and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

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• ATT reported Q1 earnings of $0,60 per share, expected $0.57. Revenues rose 1.8 % YoY. U.S.

• New home sales fell 7.1% in Feb. The Midwest is down 20% and 27% in the West. The rest saw modest gains. Inventory dropped from 146,000 in Feb to 144,000 in March – a new low. The Median sales price rose 6.3% to $234,500. Pulte Homes rose 5%, after the U.S. Commerce Department said new homes sold at an annual rate of 328,000 last month.

• (Spiegel) The collapse of the Dutch government, the prospect of Socialist François Hollande as next French president and the surging popularity of far-right parties shows that budget discipline is out of fashion in Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel is looking increasingly lonely in her fight to save the euro through painful austerity measures, write German commentators.

• Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal, International Monetary Fund data show.

• A dairy cow in California tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (Mad Cow),USDA announced.

• Oil World reduced estimates of Argentina’s soy crop to 42.5 mmt, down from the USDA’s 45 mmt and down 1.5 mmt from its previous estimate.

• Apple’s profit rose 94% to $12.30 a share. iPhone sales rose 88% YoY -- beating the most optimistic forecast.

IMF encourages Europe's economic suicide
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

“Rather than admit that they’ve been wrong, European leaders seem determined to drive their economy — and their society — off a cliff,” said Professor Krugman.

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• (WSJ) Yum earned $458 million, or 96 cents a share,, up from $264 million, or 54 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding items, the company would have earned 76 cents a share. Revenue hit $2.74 billion, a 13% gain.

• (WSJ) Qualcomm reported a profit of $2.23 billion, or $1.28 a share, up from $999 million, or 59 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding 41-cents per-share earnings from the Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives segment, stock-based compensation and other items, per-share earnings rose to $1.01 from 86 cents. Revenue improved 28% to $4.94 billion.

• U. S. Crude oil stocks increased 3.9 million barrels, gasoline stocks decreased by 3.7 million. Distillate stocks decreased 2.9 million barrels. Ethanol stocks rose 0.2 million to 22.0 million barrels.

• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) announced that it has received an unsolicited proposal from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to acquire HGS for $13.00 per share in cash.

• E-Trade Financial reported Thursday its Q1 profit rose to $62.6 million, or 22 cents a share. Up from 16 cents a share YoY.

• China’s media reports that the province of Heilongjang, which is its largest soybean producer, is suffering through its worst drought in a decade.
• A Friday rumor on the soybean floor that Brazil is cutting off exports produced a good rally. Soy meal is making new highs.

• EBAY reported that revenue for Q1 rose 29% to $3.3 billion, compared to the same period of 2011.

• Microsoft Corp. reported Q3 profit of $5.11 billion, or 60 cents a share, on $17.41 billion in revenue.

• The Federal Reserve says banks will have two years to comply with a rule that would ban them from trading for their own profit. The so-called Volcker rule is expected to take effect this summer. But the Fed clarified that it won’t enforce it until July 2014.

• Yum (YUM) reported Q1 earnings increased of 21% YoY

• AIA (AAGIY) Group first quarter new business value rose 27%

• Japan's trade deficit in the past fiscal year ending in March stood at 4.41 trillion yen (about 54. 19 billion U.S. dollars), marking the worst ever reading for the country.

• Brazil cut the basic interest rate from 9.75% to 9%.

• A prominent Chinese think tank issued a forecast saying China's grain output is likely to grow for the ninth consecutive year in 2012. (Good thing the weather doesn’t have a memory, or the odds of that happening would be slim)

• Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), the world's largest retailer, squelched an internal investigation into allegations of bribery at its Mexican subsidiary instead of broadening the probe, the New York Times reported

Next Update Sunday

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• Fullerene C60 administration doubles rat lifespan with no toxicity.

• JP Morgan’s Copper ETF getting closer.

• U.S. Housing starts fell 5.8% last month to an annual rate of 654,000 from a slightly revised 694,000 in February. Permits rose 4.5% to 747,000 in March from a revised 715,000 in February.

• KO reported a 3% rise in profit to 89 cents per share, topping estimates by 2 cents. Sales grew 6% to $11.14 billion, over estimates of $10.82 billion. That reflects higher volumes and a 3% increase in pricing.

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• Italy's industrial output fell 0.7% MoM, and 6.8% YoY.

• Prichard: The Middle-East "war-premium" in current oil prices is poised to fall after a tentative breakthrough on Iran's nuclear programme over the weekend, offering a soothing tonic for battered equity markets across the world.

• The Obama administration welcomes China’s move to expand the Yuan’s trading band against the dollar, saying it could help to shrink global trade imbalances.

• Geithner on Sunday urges lawmakers to approve the “Buffett Rule” to tax millionaires, framing the proposal as an issue of tax fairness this election year.

• France saw a rise the number of new enterprises established in March from the previous month thanks to a favorable economic and investment climate, official data showed on Friday.According to national statistics bureau Insee, 51,329 new firms were set up in March, up by 8.4 percent from February.

• Britain's PPI rose 0.6% in March.

• Cocoa NY stocks new high.

• Comex Silver inventory new high.

Next Update Sunday

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• Madrid’s 10-year bond yields rose above 6% for first time since December, raising fears that it could be forced to seek emergency loans.

• The Japanese central bank decided on Tuesday to keep its key interest rate unchanged and refrain from fresh monetary easing steps, dashing market hopes.

• U.S. Industrial Production Index for Manufacturing rose 0.4% MoM, and 5.4% YoY.

• The Russian Central Bank on Monday announced a decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 8%.

• U.S. consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4.2% in February, a positive sign of consumers' growing confidence in the economy.

• China's economic growth is set to moderate slightly over the next two years but will exceed 8%, on the back of strong investment, rising private consumption and a more stable global economy, the Asian Development Bank said Wednesday.

• The Philippine government says its largest warship is engaged in a standoff with Chinese surveillance vessels that blocked it when it attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen anchored at a South China Sea shoal where both sides claim sovereignty.

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• So far, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Kraft have ended their membership in the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC.

• The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, marking the smallest increase in five months.

• Researchers led by biologist Chensheng Lu of Harvard University report a direct link between hive health and dietary exposure to imidacloprid, a so-called neonicotinoid pesticide linked to colony collapse disorder, the mysterious and massive die-off of bees across North America and Europe. Relevant to bayry, corn and BEES!

• China's Q1 GDP rose 8.4%, CPI rose 3.5% .

• MoM Japan's key composite economic index rose 1.0 point in February.

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• (Bloomberg)The Federal Reserve is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. “A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below” 2 percent, according to minutes of their March 13 meeting released today in Washington.

• (FT) The world’s largest producer of chocolate products has warned that there could be supply problems in the mid to long term.

• Carbon at new low: Data show a bigger than expected drop in the amount of pollution emitted by power plants and factories in the EU’s emissions trading system.

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.3% in February; January revised down to 1.1% drop.

• YoY General Motors posts 11.8% monthly sales growth.

• (Spiegel) Many German politicians and tax collectors are furious about Switzerland's decision to issue arrest warrants against three German officials who bought a stolen CD with tax data. The move has gone down well in Switzerland, where politicians have praised the country's assertiveness. But it is unclear how the Swiss authorities will proceed -- the main witness is dead.

• A dozen U.S. companies, GE and JNJ amongst them, have agreed to disclose more about their lobbying efforts in return for avoiding public showdowns at their annual meetings.

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• Owners of VLCC tankers have something to cheer for once again, as shipbrokers are hailing the sector for its performance, on the back that currently there is greater oil demand than at any time since the economic turmoil of the autumn of 2008.

• (Arlan Suderman) Based on USDA's demand estimates for the year ahead (USDA is notorious for under-estimating demand) today's acreage estimate would suggest that Soybean stocks would run dry even with a record yield this year.

• European finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on Friday agreed to boost the euro-zone firewall to over 800 billion Euros. The move marks another U-turn on the part of the Merkel administration, which recently dropped its opposition to increasing the fund. German commentators warn that even the new firewall may still be too small.

• (Anne Kadet SmartMoney) Some academics say we may well be reverting to historical norms, returning to pre-New Deal conditions in which most Americans had to work until they, well, dropped. The number of working people over age 65 reached an all-time low in 2001, when just 13 percent held a job. Now that rate is rebounding, and fast; last summer, it hit 18 percent, a level not seen since Kennedy faced the Cuban Missile Crisis.

• Japan’s industrial output fell 1.2% in Feb.
• Japan’s jobless rate fell to 4.5% in Feb.

• China's economic growth is expected to ease to 8.2% in the first quarter of this year from 8.9% in the last quarter of 2011, according to a report issued Saturday by the Bank of China.

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• U.S. First time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 359,000 in the week ending March 24.

• US GDP (gross domestic product) grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%.

• British service sector grows 0.2% in January.

• France's GDP grows 1.7% in 2011.

• (Independent) Fires raging unchecked in an Indonesian peat swamp forest could wipe out the remaining Sumatran orangutans which live there, conservationists are warning. The forest is one of the last refuges of the great apes. The illegal fires, started by palm-oil companies clearing land to plant the lucrative crop, are believed to have killed at least 100 orangutans.

• Bank of Spain predicted that the Spanish economy will continue in recession and unemployment will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2012 - an estimated 900,000 people took to the streets in Madrid.

• Seasonal fishing bans will be imposed on the Pearl River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in April. The move is part of China's efforts to rescue its declining wild fishing resources, and is in addition to bans in six other provinces and regions.

• (Bloomberg) Copper traders are the most bearish in two months after stockpiles tracked by the biggest metals bourse rose for the first time in five weeks.

The race to slake a continent’s thirst With its French joint-venture partner, Castel, SABMiller has 60% of Africa’s commercial beer market in volume terms, including a near-monopoly in South Africa. But other global brewers are keen to expand in Africa too, as they seek growth markets to compensate for flat or falling beer sales in the rich world. Heineken, already the biggest brewer in Nigeria, recently paid a princely $163m for two Ethiopian breweries put up for sale by the government. With Diageo, the leader in Kenya, these four brewers account for around 80% of the African market.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to 70.2, down from 71.6 in February.

• Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively.

• The 'pink slime' controversy in the beef markets could actually be good news for the livestock markets. We will require "more" meat to make up the extra supply needed.

• Alternative energy: Wooden batteries The Economist
  
  
• Consumer confidence  for Germany declined to 5.9 in April from 6.0 points in March.
• Jobless rate in France rose by 0.2% in February for the 10th successive month.
• Hong Kong's average wage rate rose 9.4% YoY.

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• Commercial beekeepers and environmental organizations filed a petition, asking federal regulators to suspend use of a pesticide they say harms honeybees. The group is urging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to ban the insecticide clothianidin, one of a class of chemicals that act on the central nervous system of insects.

• U.S. Existing home sales fell 0.9% from February.

• The Biotechnology Industry Organization applauded the Faster Access to Specialized Treatments (FAST) Act. According to BIO the legislation will modernize the Accelerated Approval pathway to expedite the development of modern, targeted, and personalized therapies for patients suffering from serious and life-threatening diseases.

• U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week by 1.16 million barrels to 346.29 million barrels

• Fed chairman exhorts Europe's leaders to beef up its banks.

• A tax on financial transactions could help improve revenues for EU cities and regions, the president of the European Parliament said.

• Britain revised expectation of economic growth rate to 0.8%.

• The number of paid employees of Macao's gaming sector reached 50,198 at the end of 2011, an increase of 12% YoY.

• A gang of women - described as blonde, bilingual and well educated - have been taking Brazilian shopping malls by storm, kidnapping shoppers and maxing out their credit cards, police say.

Still lazy, this could turn into a habit – next update Sunday

QUICK OVERVIEW

• The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters said U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 74.3 for March from 75.3 in February. Higher gas prices (Iran war talk) are probably to blame.

• (Arlan Suderman) Chinese Sept corn futures hit record high of $10.03 per bushel; Oh yeah, supplies are adequate.
• U.S. Corn (almost) and Beans at six month high.

• U.S. CPI rose 2.9% YoY as of February; unchanged from January; Core rate up 2.2% YoY, down from 2.3% in January.

• Some reports suggest there are plenty of new iPads still in stores. AAPL briefly crossed above $600 last week; Market Cap = 546 B (XOM = 407 B)

• J.P. Morgan announced a share buyback and raised dividends. Most U.S banks passed the latest Fed stress test.

• Fitch put UK ratings on watch.

• Paypal (EBAY) is looking to extend its electronic payment services to domestic markets in India and China, the largest consumer markets in Asia.

• BIMCO forecasts 20 million DWT of dry bulk to be recycled during 2012

• Former clients of MF Global expressed outrage over reports that Louis Freeh, the trustee overseeing the company's liquidation, planned to ask a bankruptcy judge to approve sizable bonuses for nearly two dozen top executives at the failed firm.

• The U.S. government ran a $231.7 billion budget deficit in February, up from $222.5 YoY.

• Fitch Affirms United Kingdom at 'AAA' - Revises Outlook To Negative.

• Some Brits have the idea of refinancing the national debt with 100-year gilts, or even gilts issued in perpetuity, is a bit too clever by half.

• In a major embarrassment for Goldman Sachs, a senior executive has resigned from the bank and attacked its 'toxic greed' and 'destructive' culture.

• Department of Labor reporting that first time claims for unemployment benefits dropped 14,000 to 351,000 in the week ending March 10.
• It also reported that wholesale prices rose 0.4% in February

• YoY Sales at full-service restaurants rose 8.7%, the fastest growth since the late 1990’s

• Nokia is expected to launch its Lumia smartphone line in China on March 28. DigiTimes says that China Unicom, China Telecom and China Mobile will all sell Nokia Lumia handsets.

• China overtook the United States to become the top foreign investor in Germany in 2011 in terms of investment project numbers.

• Spain’s new houses prices fell on average by 11.2 % during 2011

• Eurozone inflation stable at 2.7% in February
• Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.2% in January

• Singapore's unemployment rate improved to a 14-year low of 2% in 2011

You want to live to 1,000? Start making friends Whatever, there are going to be a lot more old people around soon, and many things urgently need looking at again. If we were to design a pension system today to match Bismarck's – in terms of the age that it starts set against median life expectancy – it would kick in at 103... ...According to the analysis, if you want to scotch the idea of old age as a state of dependency, you have to start thinking not in terms of how long you can keep yourself alive but of how long you can keep yourself healthy. And if you want to keep yourself healthy, the answer, for a change, is not about willpower, exercise, keeping active and looking after yourself. The answer is other people. So you'd better start making some friends.

A bit lazy currently – next update Sunday

Next Update Sunday

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (AP) -- President Barack Obama said Sunday that United States will not hesitate to attack Iran with military force to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon...

• Only two (now 7) advertisers have cut ties with the "Rush Limbaugh Show" after he called an activist for women's contraception a "slut and prostitute"... advertisers who have not rejected Limbaugh include Carbonite, a  online computer backup system.

• Pork production in China, the top soybean importer, will climb to 51.6 million metric tons this year, up 4.2 percent from a year earlier, as the government increased insurance incentives for farms, a U.S. Department of Agriculture unit said.

• The USDA Thursday forecasted that U.S. framers will plant 94 million acres of corn. That would be up 2.3% YoY, and would be the most corn planted since 1944.

• Informa cut its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by 2m tonnes to 68m tonnes

• Canada's economy grew 2.5 % in 2011, down from 3.2 % YoY

• Italy's debt rose to 120.1% of GDP last year from 118.7 % in 2010, the highest level since 1996.
• The country's economy grew 0.4% last year compared to 1.8% the previous year

• A further 112,269 Spaniards lost their jobs in February, the seventh consecutive month during which unemployment rose in Spain.

• Japan's jobless rate rose to 4.6% in January.

• Moody's downgraded Greece long term sovereign credit rating from "Ca" to "C" .

• The iShares MSCI Peru Index (EPU) has given back to investors in 2012, outperforming gold and copper exchange traded funds.

• Exchange traded funds that hold bullion are rivaling global central banks in their accumulated gold stores.

• PIMCO Debuts First Actively Managed ETF (TXRT): the Bond fund is managed by Bill Gross and will invest in all sectors of the fixed income market.

• (FT) US corporation tax rates hit 10-year low.

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• The U.S. ISM index, stood at 52.4% in February, lowers than the reading of 54.1 % in January.

• Italian 10-year paper fell as low as 4.9 %, the lowest since August.

• China says it has larger-than-expected shale gas reserves that could fulfill domestic demand for nearly 200 years – but Beijing admits extraction will prove difficult

• U.S. personal income rose 0.3% in January, after a 0.5% gain in December.

• U.S. personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2 % in January, after it remained flat in Dec.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• Case-Shiller breakdown: Las Vegas, 65% off housing-market peak; Miami, 51%; U.S. home prices fell 4% in Q4 of 2011, putting them back at levels last seen in mid-2002.

• The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes increased to 70.8 this month - the highest reading since February last year - from an upwardly revised 61.5 in January.

• Ireland will vote on whether to accept the European Union's new fiscal treaty.

• (Spiegel)Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl stepped into the German debate about aid for Greece on Tuesday, warning that the goal of a united Europe mustn't be questioned.

• (Spiegel) If the Socialist Party's candidate wins the current presidential election in France, the country's highest earners may be faced with massive new taxes. Francois Hollande says he wants to introduce a wealth tax of 75 percent on income of over 1 million Euros per year.

• Oil World calls for largest on record YoY drop in global oilseed production due to South American drought.

• German court says parliament fast-track euro crisis panel unconstitutional.

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor.

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• Telefonica (TEF) reported an increase in revenues of 3.5% YoY Mobile net additions rose 45% in the quarter, and 7.8 million new accesses added. In 2011 as a whole, total customers grew 7%YoY, to 306.6 million accesses. Net profit doubled to 2.67 billion Euros ($3.57 billion) compared to a profit of 1.3 billion in the year-ago period.

• U.S. New home sales are at an annual rate of 321,000 units in January, down from 324,000 in December. The median sales price rose by $600 to $217,100.

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 75.3, up from 75 the previous month.

• Santorum said, “I understand why Barack Obama wants to send every kid to college, because of their indoctrination mills, absolutely ... The indoctrination that is going on at the university level is a harm to our country.”

• (FT) Stockton, a city in northern California, next week may decide to suspend payments to some of its creditors and take steps toward a bankruptcy filing after years of fiscal strife.

• "Though housing-related businesses remain in the emergency room, most other businesses have left the hospital with their health fully restored," Buffett said on Saturday in his closely watched annual letter to shareholders.
•  Berkshire Hathaway’s net income fell 30% as the paper value of its derivative contracts fell.
• Berkshire said it earned $3.05 billion, or $1,846 per Class A share, compared with earnings of $4.38 billion, or $2,656 per share a year earlier.

• A 17-tonne haul of silver coins, lost for two centuries in the wreck of a sunken galleon, began its journey back to Spain yesterday after deep-sea explorers lost their claim to ownership.

• VIVUS (VVUS:) said that an Advisory Committee of the FDA recommended that Qnexa be granted FDA marketing approval for the treatment of obesity in adults. It purportedly helped trial patients lose 10% of their weight in a year.

• Chinese banks have been urged to use green credits as a tool to support the nation to cut carbon emissions while achieving a sustainable growth, according to China Banking Regulatory Commission.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (AAGIY) AIA Group Ltd, Asia's No.3 insurer, reported a 40 % rise in value of new business in the year ended Nov. 30, 2011, helped by strong performance in China and Singapore.

• AIG said Q4 operating profit was 82 cents a share, above Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 63 cents a share.

• A drought threat posed across southern and western Minnesota is the most serious in over a decade, according to University of Minnesota Extension Climatologist Mark Seeley. Climate outlooks currently favor more rain than normal this spring across much of the state, but it might not be enough, Seeley says: “Many areas are so deficient in stored soil moisture they will need 150-200% of normal rainfall during March and April to make up the difference.”

• (NYT) President Obama asked Congress on Wednesday to scrub the corporate tax code of dozens of loopholes and subsidies to reduce the top rate to 28 percent, from 35 percent, while giving preferences to manufacturers that would set their maximum effective rate at 25 percent.

• The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 4.3% in January.

• Singapore's CPI eased to 4.8% in January, down from 5.5% the previous month. French CPI fell by 0.4% in January thanks to a drop of manufacturing costs, following a rise of 0.4% in December.

• YoY, French inflation rose by 2.3%.

• China discovered 1.37 billion tonnes of oil reserves last year, up 20.6% YoY.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• In the early hours of this morning the Eurozone finally agreed a €130bn bailout for Greece. 

• Wal-Mart Stores' fiscal 4Q earnings fell 15% to $5.16 billion, or $1.50 a Share. Revenue rose 6% to $123.17 billion. 

• Home Depot's 4Q earnings rose to $774 million, or 50c a share. Sales rose 6% to $16 billion. 

• Kraft Foods' 4Q earnings up 54% to $830 million, or 47c a share. 

• James Monroe (Chairman of the Board) of Globalstar (GSAT) bought 50,000 shares. 

• Marine biologists and philosophers have joined forces to support a controversial declaration of rights for whales and dolphins on the grounds that their astonishing intelligence and emotional empathy puts them on a par with humans.

Plutocracy, Pure and Simple
Shocking, fascinating, entirely unsurprising: the leaked documents, if authentic, confirm what we suspected but could not prove. The Heartland Institute, which has helped lead the war against climate science in the United States, is funded among others by tobacco firms, fossil fuel companies and one of the billionaire Koch brothers..

Daily charts are up-to-date  No weekly update this week -- back up next weekend.

Quick Overview

• Prichard: Europe's key powers are on the brink of a €130bn (£108bn) debt deal to rescue Greece and avert the first sovereign default in Western Europe in over half a century.

• Abbott (ABT) increased the quarterly common dividend from 48 cents per share to 51 cents per share. This marks the 40th consecutive year that Abbott has increased its dividend payout and the 353rd consecutive quarterly dividend to be paid by Abbott since 1924.

• Retail sales in Britain increased 1.9 % YoY

• China loosened monetary policy in a surprise move over the weekend, taking precautionary action to shore up the economy after a slew of weak data. The cut, the second of its kind in three months, will drop the RRR by 50 basis points to 20.5% for large commercial banks and 17% for mid- and small-sized banks.
• China: In January, 48 cities out of the statistical pool of 70 major cities saw drops in new home prices MoM, while new home prices in 22 cities remained unchanged. On a YoY basis, property prices are still higher in most cities.
• Foreign trade in south China's Guangdong Province, the nation's key production and export base, fell 16.7% YoY in January.

• Iran has halted oil shipments to Britain and France, the Oil Ministry said, in an apparent pre-emptive move against the European Union.

• Tranquilo Favero, the head of Paraguay's largest soy producer, took out ads in national news media on Sunday to ask forgiveness for telling a Brazilian newspaper that Paraguayan farm workers are lazy and that "you have to treat them like a bad woman, with a stick."

• (Bloomberg) The U.S. cattle herd as of Jan. 1 was the smallest for that date since 1952, and beef exports surged 21 percent in 2011, government data show. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a 4.1 percent drop in beef output in 2012, boosting the cost of the meat for consumers by as much as 5 percent this year, more than any other food group except seafood.

• Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy gold.

• Lack of rain in Texas may lead to the smallest planted rice acreage since the 1920s.

• Implats forecasts the platinum market will reflect a 335000oz deficit in the coming financial year compared with a surplus of 120000oz this year, marketing director Derek Engelbrecht said at the group’s interim results presentation yesterday.

Quick Overview

• Leak exposes how Heartland Institute (Koch) works to undermine climate science.

• Equinix (EQIX) fourth-quarter profit rose 29%
  
  
• Moody's warned that it may downgrade the credit ratings of 114 banks, including 17 global banks.

• Nestle (NSRGF) posted a full-year sales growth of 7.5% - but it predicted a tough year ahead.

• U.S Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to 348,000, the lowest level since March 2008, the Labor Department said.

• 7.58% of U.S. mortgage borrowers were late on their loan payments during the last three months of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That was down 0.67 % YoY and 2.5% from the peak set in the first quarter of 2010.

Quick Overview

• @TheDailyShow @RickSantorum "Government cannot force you to pay for something that violates faith or beliefs." // Great advice for tax season!

• QoQ Japan's economy shrank by 0.6%. Japan is taking further monetary easing steps by setting its price stability goal at one percent to fight deflation, while expanding its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen to 65 trillion yen. BOJ also decided to hold its interest rate steady at zero to 0.1%.

• Moody’s lowered the outlook on France, Britain and Austria to negative, but kept their ratings at triple-A for now.

• Obama has charged more whistleblowers under the 1917 Espionage Act than all previous Presidents combined.

• Crude-oil supplies in the U.S. rose 2.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 10.
• Gasoline supplies rose 1.8 million barrels
• Distillates declined 2.2 million barrels.

• (Prichard) A Greek default and traumatic ejection from the euro moved a step closer last night after Eurozone finance ministers cancelled a crucial meeting, accusing Athens of failing to flesh out austerity cuts

• Austria and Switzerland are aiming to join hands in their effort to fight tax evasion with an agreement being negotiated by the two governments.

Germany's Carthaginian terms for Greece Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The last time Germany needed a bail-out from world creditors, it secured better terms than shattered Greece last week...Greece has less strategic relevance, and must comply with tougher terms...Would Konrad Adenauer ever have made such a blunder?

Quick Overview

• In the US, since 1900, the longest anyone has had to wait for a positive return from a position in stocks (Index) is 17 years. In Italy its 74 years --so says the FT
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• (Barrons) Baltic Dry: Not Washed Up -- News that the Baltic Dry Index is sunk as an economic indicator is much exaggerated.
  The index—which measures the cost to haul dry freight over the world's oceans—has merely run aground after getting hit with a shipping-market tsunami. Don't worry. It will right itself soon enough–and should once again become a useful forecasting tool, as early as the end of the year.
  The cost of shipping dry commodities, such as coal, iron ore and grains, forms the basis for the BDI. When more raw materials are shipped, it is because they are needed to be made into ...
• (Bloomberg) -- The trustee liquidating MF Global Inc. brokerage said the firm has a shortfall of at least $1.6 billion to pay commodity customers’ claims.

• The Hellenic Statistical Authority said YoY Greece’s manufacturing output contracted by 15.5% in December and industrial output fell 11.3%, having fallen 7.8% in November. Unemployment jumped to 20.9% in November, up from 18.2% in October - a rise of 14% in a month.

• The U.S. federal government reported a budget deficit of 27.4 billion U.S. dollars in January, the figure is sharply lower than the reading of 50 billion a year earlier.

• Industry output in France lost ground in December as the electrical and textile industry dragged down the country's overall production by 1.4%.

• Britain's producer prices rose 0.5 % MoM.

• G4S, the world’s largest security company, has won the first contract in Britain to staff and build a police station.

Quick Overview

• Inflation in China is higher than expected in January at 4.5%

• Greek jobless rate hits new record high at 20.9%

• Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) raised the dividend 6.3%

• Akamai (AKAM) Q4 revenue rose 14%. Profit was 45 cents a share, exceeding the 40-cent average projection.

• Melco Crown Ent. (MPEL) Reports Q4 earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.03 better than the Consensus Estimate of $0.17; revenues rose 30.2% YoY to $1.01 bln vs the $0.98 bln consensus.

• Indonesia cuts interest rate to 5.75%.

• Japan's key machinery orders fall 7.1 %

• A $25 billion settlement with the U.S. mortgage lenders was hailed by government officials as long-overdue relief for victims of foreclosure abuses. Of the five major lenders, Bank of America will pay the most to borrowers: nearly $8.6 billion. Wells Fargo will pay about $4.3 billion, JPMorgan Chase roughly $4.2 billion, Citigroup about $1.8 billion and Ally Financial $200 million. The banks will also pay state and federal governments about $5.5 billion.
  -- About 11 million households are underwater
  
  
  
  
  

Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else -- who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive -- will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

Quick Overview

• KO profit was 79 cents a share, exceeding the 77-cent average estimate.

• MoM Japan's coincident index posted an increase of 2.9 points in December, the first expansion in two months.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia  left rates unchanged at 4.25%.

• Disney’s net income in the October through December period rose to $1.46 billion, or 80 cents per share, from $1.30 billion, or 68 cents per share, a year earlier. Q1 Profit rose 12%.

• Americans accelerated their borrowing in December for the second straight month, running up more credit card debt and taking out loans to buy cars and attend school. Consumer borrowing rose by $19.3 billion.

• BP hiked its quarterly dividend by 14 %

• China’s gold imports from Hong Kong more than trebled in 2011 from the year before, hitting a record 428 tonnes.

An orderly EMU break-up, à la Française
"Even though our American and Chinese competitors have an interest in the survival of the single currency, the euro is condemned to an uncontrollable explosion sooner or late".

Quick Overview

• As cold temperatures in Eastern Europe stretching all the way into France feed wheat concern about supplies there. "It's just too cold, for too long, with too little snow for nothing to have happened," ABN Amro says.

• (MarketWatch) -- A trustee seeking to distribute customer securities overseen by bankrupt MF Global Inc. said Monday that they have traced a majority of the cash that disappeared from the commodities broker. "The trustee's investigators have now traced a majority of the cash transactions, totaling more than $105 billion, made in and out of MF Global Inc. in the last week before bankruptcy and are completing the process of tracing the remaining transactions," the trustee said.

• (FT) The richest 400 Americans now have assets equal to the poorest 140 million.

• The GDP per capita of Indonesia has grown 17.7% throughout last year to 3,542 U.S. dollars from 3,010 U.S. dollars in the previous year.

• In the 12 months to January, Australia’s inflation gauge rose by 2.2%.

• The value of trade cargo handled by the Shanghai customs for the first time surpassed the US$800 billion mark last year, hitting $812.3 billion, 18.6 per cent more than in 2010, Xinhua reports.

• Customs of south eastern Xiamen opposite Taiwan recorded a 21.3 per cent increase in 2011 trade value year on year to US$103.3 billion last year, which for the first time surpassed US$100 billion, Xinhua reports.

• Yum's net income in Q4 ended December 31 grew 30% to $356 million, or 75 cents per share -- topping analysts' average view. Chinese sales rose 21%. China is Yum's biggest earnings driver, accounting for just over 40 % of overall profits.