George Friedman on Egypt (Stratfor)
So what we’re really asking here is the geopolitics of the Middle East has been built on the American-Egyptian-Israeli relationship certainly since 1977 — and perhaps before that. Is that about to change? If that changes, it has enormous consequences.

Warning shot for America and Europe as S&P downgrades Japan
Dylan Grice, a noted Japan bear at Societe Generale, said the country's ageing crisis would bite in earnest in two to three years, causing pensioners to run down their assets. The savings rate has already dropped from 15pc of GDP in 1990 to under 3pc. It may soon turn negative, depleting reserves needed to soak up state debt.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Stocks worldwide plunged the most since November, crude oil jumped and the dollar gained against the euro after protests in Egypt intensified

• Spain's unemployment rate rose to 20.3% in Q4 from 19.8% in Q3.
• Spain plans to raise the retirement age to 67 from 65.

• U.S. Consumer sentiment index eased to 74.2 from 74.5
• U.S. fourth-quarter GDP up 3.2%
• U.S. Personal consumption rose 4.4%, the most since the first quarter of 2006

Quick Overview

• Japan’s credit rating was cut by S&P one step to AA-

• Pending U.S. home sales were up 2% in December

• U.S. orders for durable goods fell 2.5%.

• U.S. first time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 51,000 last week.

• U.S bookings for capital goods like machinery and communications gear excluding aircraft climbed 1.4 percent after a 3.1 percent gain in November, the Commerce Department reported.

• South Korea posted its fourth- largest current account surplus in 2010, remaining in the black for the 13th straight year, the central bank said.

• (Xinhua) Quotes at Davos forum:
• "The increase in inequality is the most serious challenge for the world. I do not think the world is paying enough attention." -- Zhu Min, a special adviser at the International Monetary Fund and a former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China.
• "The gap between rich and poor is growing without relent. Global justice is a prerequisite for sustainable development and we have to understand that our lifestyle is not sustainable." -- President of the Swiss Confederation Micheline Calmy-Rey.
• "We are all optimists here, but when we look at the big issues on the global agenda, there is pessimism. We do not want this meeting to be one of despair. You fight possible burnout with renewed self-confidence. This should be a meeting of constructive optimism." -- Klaus Schwab, funder and executive chairman of the WEF.
• "All our efforts to further develop the world economy will be for nothing if we fail to defeat terrorism, extremism and intolerance, if we fail to eradicate altogether these evils which are the greatest danger to mankind."
• "Our task is to turn Russia into a more attractive place for the best minds in the world." -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
• "There is a global economic recovery ... balance sheets are strong, confidence is rising ... We have a glass that is half-empty and half-full."
• "The fiscal problem is very serious. The bond vigilantes have not yet woken up in the U.S. in the way they have in the euro zone. Unless the U.S. addresses this fiscal problem, we are going to see a train wreck."
• "In many of these emerging markets two-thirds of their consumer-price indexes are food, energy and transportation. When these things rise it becomes a really significant social cost." -- U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini nicknamed "Dr Doom."

Quick Overview

• The Egyptian (the world’s biggest wheat importer) authorities have moved to ban demonstrations.

• Sales of U.S new single-family homes rose in December to an annual rate of 329,000, the highest since April when a federal tax credit gave the market a temporary boost. New home sales were down 14.4% in 2010.

• The EIA said:
• Supplies of crude-oil rose 4.8 million barrels.
• Supplies of Gasoline rose 2.4 million barrels
• Supplies of Distillate rose 100,000.

• South Korea's economy posted an annual growth rate of 6.1 % in 2010, an eight-year record high.

• New budget CBO estimates released Wednesday predict the U.S. government's deficit will hit almost $1.5 trillion this year, a new record.

• Bangladesh raised the rice import target to 1.2 million metric tons for the year ending June 30, from 600,000 tons s in November.

• (Dow Jones)--China's grain demand will likely increase by 4 million metric tons a year over the next five years, while supply of agricultural products in China will face huge pressure, Vice Agricultural Minister Chen Xiaohu said Thursday.
  
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- The La Nina weather pattern that caused flooding in Australia and a dry spell in South America may persist through August, curbing corn and soybean output in the U.S. and China, Commodity Weather Group LLC said.

• The Conference Board’s index of U.S. sentiment increased to 60.6 from a revised 53.3.

• (Bloomberg) -- Parts of the Dodd-Frank financial services overhaul face a “potential undoing” by Republican proposals to cut spending, senior House Democrats said.

• J&J said that fourth-quarter sales fell 5.5% to $15.6 billion from last year's quarter.

• (S&P/Case-Shiller index) U.S. home prices fell 1% in November

• British Q4 GDP fell 0.5% --  first decline since 2009

• Corning (GLW) profit rose 41 % in Q4

Quick Overview

• (Standard Chartered) Global GDP will rise to $143 trillion by 2030 from $62 trillion in 2010.

• Justice Thomas said the employment of his wife, Virginia Thomas, was “inadvertently omitted due to a misunderstanding of the filing instructions.”

• Intel raised the quarterly dividend by 15% to 18.12 cents.

• Cotton rose by the 5 cent daily limit to $1.6194 per pound, the highest in the 141-year trading history.

• Amgen’s net income rose 10% in Q4.

• Union Pacific has reported a profit of US$2.8 billion for last year, 47 % more than in 2009 attributed to a 20 % increase in freight revenue to $16.1 billion.

A Tribute to Olbermann: Why He Is Different from the Pundits at Fox News
Really, I want to use this space to say "thank you" to Olbermann.

Thank you for your humor and insight, which was consistently smart and observant.

Thank you for giving voice to the anger so many of us felt during the Bush presidency, when few on television would do so. People accuse you of being "over the top," but when bad things are happening in the government or media, and too many are ignoring them, I don't want political commentators to be subtle.

Thank you for talking about the lies and fake journalism at Fox News when so many of us knew it was going on, but few on television would talk about it.

Thank you for always backing up your charges with facts, at a time when so many television news personalities, especially at Fox News, don't care about facts.

Thank you for having the guts to share your experiences navigating the health care system with your dying father, despite the personal pain doing so must have caused, all so you could educate viewers about the real experiences of those interacting with the system.

And thank you for regularly standing up for what was right, regardless of the consequences. You may not carry the objective legacy of Edward R. Murrow (whose "Good night and good luck" you borrowed for your sign-off line) into the 21st century, but you certainly embody his commitment to journalists playing the role of shining a light on the workings of government to ensure the American people have the information they need to be informed citizens. You consistently labored to urge politicians to act for the betterment of the country, adhering to longstanding American values of justice, equality and fairness.

Thank you.

Quick Overview

• The International Grains Council estimates 2010-11 record-high world rice production, up 2.8% YoY.
• IGC says world wheat stocks for 2010-11 are higher at 185 million metric tons.
• IGC 2010-11 world corn production was dropped 1.0 million metric tons, with losses in the U.S. and Argentina.

• (Dow Jones)--Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop may reach a record after recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul state, according to an analyst at Informa Economics FNP.

• Erik Prince, no longer with Blackwater or its successor organisation, is involved in a multimillion-dollar programme financed by several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, to deploy forces to suppress pirates at their shore bases, reports AP.

• China exported 1,575 tons of silver last year, down 58% YoY.
• Platinum imports by China rose 40% in 2010.

• Informa U.S. acreage estimates for 2011:
• Corn=90.9 million up from Dec. estimate of 90.76.
• Soybeans=76.65 million down from Dec. estimate 77.57.
• Wheat=40.99 million up from 39.502 in Dec.
• Cotton=13.34 million up from 294,000 in Dec.

• Spot Sugar Prices 36.25 Up 1.16

• GE’s fourth-quarter earnings rose 51%

• Soybean oil is supported by ongoing concerns about heavy rains hurting palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers.
  

  
  
• Speaker Boehner has declined -- once again -- to attend a state dinner, this time with Chinese president Hu Jintao

Quick Overview

• The EIA said: Supplies of crude oil fell 2.6 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 14. Analyst’s s had expected a decline of 2.2 million barrels.
• Supplies of gasoline rose 4.4 million barrels
• Supplies of distillates rose 1 million barrels.

• U.S. economic indicators rose 1% in December

• U.S sales of existing homes rose 12.3%

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of regional factory activity fell to 19.3 in January from 20.8 last month.

• U.S. unemployment claims retreated to 404,000 from 441,000 in the prior week.

• China's CPI rose 4.6 % YoY in December, slightly lower than the 28-month high of 5.1% in November.

• Brazil raised its key interest rate to 11.25% in a bid to cool inflation.

• The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange cut its estimate  for Argentina's commercial corn production to 19.5 million metric tons, down 850,000 tons from last week's estimate.

• Sales of 1-ounce American Eagle silver coins have totaled 4,588,000 in January, heading for a record, according to data from the U.S. Mint. (too popular??)
  
  
• China's announces $1.8 billion Soybean purchase.
• (FT) General Electric expects “solid double-digit” sales growth in China this year and “for a long period of time”, although revenues there have fallen short of expectations, chief executive Jeff Immelt has said.

No update today

Quick Overview

• "Drought conditions in both the U.S. and China's winter wheat areas are a serious cause for concern and could be a key factor inhibiting the needed wheat supply recovery," said Macquarie.

• U.S. housing starts fell to 4.3 % to a 529,000 annual rate in December. Permits for new construction rose to an annualized rate of 635,000 in December - the highest level since last March.

• Long Beach terminals handled 6.3 million TEU in 2010, a 1.2 million TEU increase of 25 % YoY, the biggest annual leap since 1971 when the port leased the first container terminal.(DJ)

• China to cut food weighting in CPI composition.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The NY Fed index rose to 11.9 from a revised 9.9 in December.

• The National Association of Home Builders index flat at 16 for the third straight month.

• Sales at Japanese department stores dropped 1.5% YoY.

• Philippines extends zero tariff on wheat for 6 months.

• China's electricity consumption maintained its steady growth last year, up 14.56 % YoY.
  
  
• China’s 2010 cotton imports rose 86% YoY
  

  
  
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  (FT)The US Securities and Exchange Commission is facing a budget squeeze from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

Quick Overview

• The world refined copper market is expected to have a 500,000-metric-ton to 600,000-ton deficit in 2011, even with a significantly weaker demand scenario, according to JPMorgan Securities Ltd.

• (Bloomberg) -- India’s government may ban exports of wheat products, reduce taxes on milk powder and bar essential commodities from trading in futures markets as part of steps to slow gains in food inflation, the Economic Times reported.

• The USDA estimates the 2010 corn crop at 12.447 billion bushels on yield of 152.8 bushels per acre, down from its prev. estimate of 12.54 billion on a yield of 154.3 bushels per acre. This implies domestic ending stocks are at a 20.2 day supply -- the 2nd tightest in 50 years.

• The USDA estimates the 2010 Soybean crop at 3.329 billion bushels on yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, down 30 million from its previous estimate. This implies a 15.2-day supply -- the tightest in 40 years.
• The USDA has reduced the size of the 2010-11 Florida citrus crops by 3 million boxes to 140 million 90-pound boxes.

• China is to allow imports of Canadian seal meat and oils, Canada's fisheries minister says; hopeful new market access will restore a sealing industry battered by an EU seal products import ban.

• Australia's unemployment rate fell by 0.2 % to 5.0%.

• MoM Japanese core machinery orders fell 3.0%

• China raised reserve requirements by 50 basis points -- the fourth time in little more than two months.

Next update Jan. 16

Quick Overview

• Japan pledged to buy bonds backed by European governments.

• (MW) Speculation intensifies that Portugal will be forced to seek a bailout.
• Portugal does not need to apply for EU aid, Spain's Economy Minister said.

• One week after taking office, California Governor Jerry Brown announced a balanced state budget on Monday which slashes state spending by 12.5 billion U.S. dollars.

• A Fed. official said he would set the bar "very high" for the central bank to stop short in its planned $600 billion in bond purchases, but that the Fed may need to begin considering a reversal of policy by year end.

Quick Overview

• China's soybean imports will likely expand 5%-10% a year over the next five years, with imports in 2011 around 54 million-55 million tons, the Chinese Grain Network said
• Chinas exports grew 31.3% YoY to 1.58 trillion U.S. dollars while imports rose 38.7 % to 1.39 trillion U.S. dollars, said the GAC.
• Chinas December sales of passenger cars rose 26.7% YoY to just under 1.5 million units.

• Inflationary threats have become a 'general feature' among the world's emerging economies, Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president warns.

• Germany signaled it may agree to expand euro zone’s €750bn rescue facility.

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.3% in November

• (Sea Shepherd Conservation Society) Anti-whaling activists are promising more attacks after throwing smoke grenades and "flash bangs" at Japanese whalers in the Southern Ocean today.
• Perth Mint: Physical gold demand exceeds current availability
• Pima County Sheriff Clarence W. Dupnik: "To inflame the public on a daily basis, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, has impact on people, especially who are unbalanced personalities to begin with" 

Quick Overview

• U.S. Payrolls increased 103,000, less than the median projection of 150,000

• (Reuters) - Algeria is to suspend customs duties and value added tax on imports of white sugar until Aug. 31, the government announced on Saturday in response to a wave of riots over rising food prices

• High Plains Journal: The average value of an acre of farmland in Iowa increased 15.9% in 2010, according to an annual survey conducted by Iowa State University Extension. Mike Duffy, ISU Extension economist who conducts the survey, said the statewide average land value as of Nov. 1 this year was $5,064 an acre, up $693 per acre from 2009.

• The highest court in Massachusetts affirmed a lower court’s ruling invalidating two foreclosure sales because the banks did not prove that they actually owned the mortgages at the time of  foreclosure.

Europe unveils sweeping plans to govern reckless banks
The plans allow oversight bodies to place a "permanent presence" of inspectors in the offices of suspect banks, adopting a scheme already pioneered by Spain’s central bank. There will be annual stress tests, geared to shocks of "low probability but high impact".
Regulators will be able to order bank boards to fire directors, desist from any activity, reduce leverage, sell off assets, or restructure debt.
In extreme cases, they will have pre-emptive powers to take over the entire bank and decapitate top management, perhaps when Tier I capital ratios fall below an fixed level. Stronger banks will be required to help cover the costs of failure by weaker peers, creating a further buffer between the financial industry and the taxpayer.

Quick Overview

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.

• U.S. jobless benefits climb 18,000 to 409,000 last week

• The Fed balance sheet rose to $2.418 trillion in the week ended Jan. 5 from $2.403 trillion the prior week.

• Britain raised the national sales tax to 20% from its previous 17.5 %, as part of its efforts to trim the near-record public spending deficit.
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• John Boehner put Michelle Bachmann on the “Intelligence” Committee.

Quick Overview

• U.S. payrolls expanded by 297,000 in December as companies boosted payrolls by the most since records began in 2001.

• Record high food prices and the likelihood of further increases in the year ahead are raising the specter of a repeat of the food riots that broke out in 2007-08, a senior economist at the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization said Wednesday.

• U.S. crude oil inventories fell 4.16 million barrels to 335.3 million last week.

• China's 2010 corn output is estimated at 172 million metric tons, down 940,000 tons from the previous estimate.

• The US Department of Agriculture's Buenos Aires bureau lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 1.0m tonnes.

• the ISM index rose to 57.1% in December

• (Bloomberg) -- The Pentagon underestimated the speed at which China has developed and fielded a ballistic missile that may be capable of hitting a maneuvering U.S. aircraft carrier, the head of Navy intelligence said today.

Regulators Resist Volcker Wandering Warning of Too-Big-to-Fail
“I wouldn’t lend you a dime if I knew you loved to gamble at a casino,” said Kahn, the chairman of investment advisers Kahn Brothers Group Inc., in an interview..

..“I’m sorry,” Reed, 70, said in an interview. U.S. lawmakers were wrong in 1999 to repeal the Depression-era Glass- Steagall Act, he said. The act required the separation of institutions involved in capital markets from those engaged primarily in traditional customer services, such as taking deposits and making loans..

..“My greatest fear for the last year has been an economic collapse as bad as the Great Depression,” Miller said in an interview. “My second greatest fear was that the economy would stabilize and begin to recover and the financial industry would have the clout to defeat the fundamental reforms that our nation desperately needs. My greatest fear seems less likely, lately, but my second greatest fear seems more likely every day.”

Quick Overview

• 12/20/10 China's soybean imports in November rose 47% compared with October and 90% YoY, to 5.48 million metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Tuesday. Total imports from January to November increased 31% to 49.4 million tons.
• China November natural Rubber imports rose 53% vs 55% in October.
• China’s November Uranium imports at 2,181 tons rose 100% YoY.

• (Bloomberg) -- Uranium stocks, already trading at higher valuations than their national benchmark indexes, will rise further amid predictions the price of the fuel may surge as much as 30 percent, investors and analysts said.

• Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- One unidentified company has the potential to own at least 90 percent of the copper in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange, the largest such position in two years, bourse data showed.

• Th People’s Bank of China increased key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points on Christmas Day in its second move since mid-October.
• "Inflation expectations are direr than inflation itself," Wen said, urging people to remain confident and government agencies to act to stabilize prices

• Sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased 5.5 percent in November.

• U.S. existing-home sales rose 5.6% MoM in November.

• French household consumption in manufactured goods rose by 2.8% in November.

• The IMF announced on Tuesday the conclusion of the limited sales program covering 403.3 metric tons of gold that was approved by the IMF in September 2009.

• Severe drought in major wheat production provinces of Henan, Hebei and Anhui has sparked supply concerns for 2011.

• Indonesia will raise a tax on crude palm oil exports to 20% for January from 15% this month

• 12/28/10 The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home-price index fell 1.3% MoM and 0.8% YoY. Including homes that are in or close to foreclosure, there’s inventory of 7.2 million homes, or roughly 21 months of supply

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to 52.5 in December from an upwardly revised 54.3 in November.
• U.S. retailers 2010 holiday sales rose 5.5 % for the best performance in five years.
• The Chicago purchasing manager’s index rose from 62.5 to 68.6, the highest level since the late 1980s and above expectations.

• 1/2/11 QoQ Singapore’s GDP rose 6.9% in the three months through Dec. 31.

• The Centre for Economics and Business Research said the likelihood the euro area will exist in its current structure in a decade is 20 % as governments take unsatisfactory measures to tackle economic imbalances.

• 1/4/10 GM on Tuesday reported a 7.5% increase in December U.S. sales -- Ford reported a 6.7% increase.

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.7% in November, ahead of forecasts for a 0.1% increase.

Happy Holidays!
(Updates resume Jan. 4)

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) Informa Economics Inc. said farmers will plant corn on 90.755 million acres, less than a November forecast of 93.055 million. Soybeans will be sown on 77.565 million, down from a record 77.714 million this year, the Memphis-based researcher said today in a report. Informa said farmers may plant the most acres of cotton in five years, after prices jumped to a record.

• U.S. Sugar Corp. said five nights of freezing Florida weather in the past 10 days “severely damaged” a cane crop.

• A shortage of high-quality arabica coffee has led to “precariousness of the supply/demand balance,” the ICO said.

• Ifo institute said its business climate index, rose to 109.9 from 109.

• Bank of America has halted all transactions for WikiLeaks, joining other institutions that refuse to process payments for the website that has exposed a trove of US government cables.

• Elwynn Taylor: The La Niña to date is tracking the 1973-4 event, a Risk factor for 2011

Mad Soybean’ Disease May Cut Some Brazil Output
(Bloomberg) -- Soybean farmers in Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of the oilseed, are facing a new crop disease that threatens to curb yields in some areas by as much as 60 percent, a government researcher said

Quick Overview

• The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey rose to 24.3 from 22.5 in November.

• Yields on 10-year notes have risen so far this month by about 72 basis points, making it one of the worst months in 20 years.

• U.S. housing starts rose 3.9% in November. Permits for new construction fell 4%.

• U.S. Jobless claims fell by 3,000 to a total of 420,000 in the latest week, the third decline in the past four weeks.

• TheU.S. current-account deficit widened to $127.2 billion in Q3 from $123.2 billion in Q2.

• Annual inflation in the euro zone remained stable at 1.9 % in November

• Rabobank said the U.S.  may use as much as 5.1 billion bushels of corn to produce ethanol the grain-based gasoline additive in 2010-2011 -- eroding inventories. The extra ethanol consumption implied a corn stock to use ratio at less than 4%.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% in November

• (Guardian) Time’s poll found that almost six out 10 Americans believe Assange should face criminal charges for releasing the cables.

• U.S. industrial output rose 0.4%, the biggest gain since July.

• The DOE said:
• Crude oil supplies fell 9.85 million barrels to 346 million last week. Stockpiles were forecast to decrease by 2.5 million barrels.
• Gasoline supplies rose 809,000 barrels to 214.8 million.
• Refineries operated at 88% of capacity.
• Distillate supplies rose 1.09 million barrels to 161.3 million.

• (Bloomberg) Silver, the leading performer in metals this year, is likely to repeat its success in 2011, reaching $40 an ounce on new applications and industry demand, said the head of commodity trading in Japan at Standard Bank Plc.

Why I'm Posting Bail Money for Julian Assange By Michael Moore
Openness, transparency -- these are among the few weapons the citizenry has to protect itself from the powerful and the corrupt. What if within days of August 4th, 1964 -- after the Pentagon had made up the lie that our ship was attacked by the North Vietnamese in the Gulf of Tonkin -- there had been a WikiLeaks to tell the American people that the whole thing was made up? I guess 58,000 of our soldiers (and 2 million Vietnamese) might be alive today.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in November, marking fifth straight monthly increase

• U.S. PPI rose 0.8% in November -- the biggest gain since March.(prices for fresh fruits and melons rose 13.6%)

• U.K. CPI rose 3.3%

• The FT reports that Portugal has become the first EU country with a sugar shortage.

• The Fed left interest rates and the bond purchase program unchanged.

• Indian inflation in November declined to 7.48 % from 8.58 % in the previous month.

• YoY China's exports grew by 34.9% in November to US$153.33 billion, while the nation's imports surged by 37.7% to $130.43 billion
• China's trade surplus declined to $22.89 billion in November, down from $27.1 billion in October, reports Xinhua.

Reclaim the Cyber-Commons For his film (Astro)Turf Wars, Taki Oldham secretly recorded a training session organised by a rightwing libertarian group called American Majority. The trainer, Austin James, was instructing Tea Party members on how to “manipulate the medium”(11). This is what he told them:
“Here’s what I do. I get on Amazon; I type in “Liberal Books”. I go through and I say “one star, one star, one star”. The flipside is you go to a conservative/ libertarian whatever, go to their products and give them five stars. … This is where your kids get information: Rotten Tomatoes, Flixster. These are places where you can rate movies. So when you type in “Movies on Healthcare”, I don’t want Michael Moore’s to come up, so I always give it bad ratings. I spend about 30 minutes a day, just click, click, click, click. … If there’s a place to comment, a place to rate, a place to share information, you have to do it. That’s how you control the online dialogue and give our ideas a fighting chance.”

No update today

Quick Overview

• Precious metals will probably give investors the best returns among commodities in the next year, and livestock the worst, Goldman Sachs  said. Goldman also sees cotton prices hitting 125 cents a pound in a year's time, and soybeans at $14.00 a bushel.

• YoY China's retail sales of consumer goods grew 18.7% in November
• China’s CPI rose 5.1%, the PPI rose 6.1%.
• China kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

• CoreLogic said 10.8 million homes, or 22.5% of those with mortgages, were “underwater” as of Sept. 30^th. That's down from 11 million, or 23% in June.
• JPMorgan has quietly reduced a large "short" position in the US silver futures market.
• (Bloomberg) -- Sugar production in Australia, the third-largest exporter, may plunge to the lowest in almost two decades as wet weather forces producers to leave some cane unharvested this season.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• GE raised its quarterly dividend to 14 cents a share from 12 cents a share, the second increase this year.

• China's inflation surged to a two year high last month despite government control efforts, prompting fears that U.S. consumers will soon face paying more for Chinese made products.

• (Spiegel) It is a triumph for Mexico and a step forward in the fight against global warming: the Cancun climate conference reached a compromise in a dramatic conclusion to negotiations on Saturday. The deal preserves the UN's leadership in climate talks. But the compromises reached were modest

• The United States recorded a larger-than-expected $150 billion budget gap last month.

• The USDA raised projected Corn ending stocks by 5 million to 832 million bushels.
• The USDA has Soybean ending stocks to just 165 million bushels. That represents a 18-day supply.
• The USDA estimates wheat ending stocks to 858 million bushels.

• OPEC ministers announced Saturday the oil output would remain unchanged, while Saudi Arabia said it favors a price between 70 to 80 dollars per barrel.

Global bond rout deepens on US fiscal worries
The US tax deal adds $1 trillion of stimulus over two years, according to BNP Paribas. America's budget deficit will remain stuck near 10pc of GDP, not just in 2011 but also in 2012. This will push gross public debt to 110pc of GDP under the IMF definition, near the brink of a debt compound spiral. The contrast with fiscal tightening in Europe has become starkly evident.

Quick Overview

• China November trade surplus narrows to $22.9 Bln.

• The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of 4.41% -- lower than traders expected.

• U.S household debt fell at an annual rate of 1.75% in Q3 to $13.4 trillion. U.S. household financial assets gained from 43.8 trillion dollars in Q2 to 45.7 trillion dollars in Q3, with household deposits increasing from 7.62 trillion dollars in the second quarter to 7.66 trillion dollars in the third quarter, a sign of U.S. consumers changing habit of saving more and spending less.

• U.S. wholesale inventories rose 1.9% in October

• U.S. weekly jobless claims fell 17,000 to 421,000

• An Italian court sentenced the founder of Parmalat to 18 years in prison for his role in the Italian dairy company's 2003 collapse.

• Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed to launch the Common Economic Space (CES) of the Customs Union on Jan. 1, 2012

• Over the past decade trade between the United States and India has surged by 169 per cent to reach US$38.5 billion in 2010. US exports to India have risen by almost 350% since 2000, US imports from India have risen by 107 %.

Quick Overview

• Australia's unemployment rate fell 0.2 % to 5.2% in November.

• Brazil held rates at 10.75%.

• New Zealand left rates at 3.0%.

• Japan's GDP grew at an annualized 4.5% rate in the three months ended Sept. 30.

Keith Olbermann comment on Bush tax

Quick Overview

• US stocks lost gains late in the session after rallying for most of the day on the back of the extension of the Bush tax cuts.

• YoY Bank lending in Japan fell 2.1% in November, marking the 12th successive month of decline.

• YoY Japan's current account surplus rose 2.9 % in October to 1,436.2 billion yen (17.20 billion U.S.)

• MoM Japan's core machinery orders declined 1.4% in October

• The American shipping community - and its customers - praised the US and South Korean governments for reaching consensus on a new free trade deal, and said they look forward to enjoying its benefits once ratified.

• ETF Securities says it has approval from European regulators to launch three physically backed metals ETF’s. Expected to begin trading Friday in London, the ETF’s specialize in copper, nickel and tin.

AkzoNobel has become man's best friend in China thanks to Dulux and its dog
The winning allure, surprisingly, is Dulux's old English sheepdog peering out of paint pots through a mop of white hair. "Having a dog in China has become a status symbol," said Karen Yin, Dulux's marketing director in China. "A dog represents loyalty and the warmth of the family."

Quick Overview

• India's gold imports this year are likely to be 700 metric tons, about 46% more than last year

• Standard Bank said China’s demand for gold is likely to total 600 tons this year up from less than 500 tons last year, with around 250 tons having to be imported.

• Price increases are decelerating at the greatest pace in nearly 30 years, a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said.

• Bernanke said the central bank may boost purchases of U.S. debt.

• (FT)The euro falls after Germany casts doubt on the future of eurozone stability by rejecting calls to increase the size of EU bail-out fund and issue a single euro bond.

• Moody’s cut Hungary’s credit rating to just above junk.

• The prospect of additional US stimulus boosts demand for precious metals.

Next update Sunday Dec. 5

Quick Overview

• Goldman: American soybean inventories potentially on course to fall to 4.0%, as a proportion of use, the lowest since the 1960s.

• U.S. pending-home sales rose 10.4% in October

• Weekly U.S. jobless claims rise 26,000 to 436,000

• European Central Bank keeps rates at 1%

• China may have a refined sugar shortage of 2.5 million metric tons in the 2010-2011 marketing year that needs to be met by imports or selling reserves, the China Merchandise Reserve Management Centre said.

• BNP Paribas has raised its average 2011 gold-price forecast to $1,500 an ounce and looks for the metal to average $1,600 in 2012.

• The Federal Reserve might need to curtail its $600 billion bond purchase plan if the economy grows more strongly than anticipated, said Charles Plosser.

Quick Overview

• Fed Beige Book: US economic growth continues to improve

• U.S Private-sector employment rose 93,000 in November, the largest gain in three years

• Casino revenue rose 42% YoY in November, according to Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

• (FT)ECB president’s comments that the bank could step up purchases of Eurozone bonds help stabilize European sovereign debt markets and propel global equity markets.

• ISM manufacturing index slips to 56.6% in November

• U.S. Q3 nonfarm productivity revised to 2.3% from prior estimate of 1.9%.

• China's Purchasing Managers Index at 55.2 beat forecast of 54.7.

• South Korea’s imports of iron ore in October were an all-time record at 5.32 Mt – up 34% YoY.

• India’s coal deficit will deepen sharply next year, its coal minister said, forcing Asia’s third largest economy to import more of the fuel on which it relies.

• EU Purchasing Managers index rose to 55.3 from 54.6 in October.

• The unemployment rate in the euro zone hit a record high of 10.1 percent in October.

• S.Korea’s CPI grew by 3.3 % YoY.

• YoY Canada’s GDP grew 1.0 %in Q3

• (Bloomberg) -- China’s gold imports jumped almost fivefold in the first 10 months

No update today

Quick Overview

• [William Sawyer], the [veteran] Florida toxicologist, said the government tests do not look for total petroleum hydrocarbons in the seafood. He said his tests of Gulf shrimp have shown unsafe levels of the compounds, which can cause liver or kidney damage in a matter of weeks.

• U.S. consumer confidence rose to 54.1 in November.

• The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 62.5 in November from 60.6 in October.

• U.S. Single-family home prices fell 0.7% in September: S&P/Case-Shiller

• Gold / Silver futures rose to a two-week high on Europe’s escalating debt woes

• India said it may allow sugar exports next month.

• China's Purchasing Managers Index at 55.2  forecast  54.7

Quick Overview

• YoY Sweden's GDP rose 6.9% in Q3.

• The Chicago Fed's Midwest Mfg Index rose 0.7% to 80.9, the highest reading since July

• U.K. house prices fell 0.8% MoM in November and were 1.1% lower YoY.

• Japanese retail sales fell 0.2% in October, the government said Monday, marking the first fall after nine consecutive monthly rises.

• Iran Nuclear Scientist Assassinated; Another Injured.

• Calm in the markets brought by the EU’s €85bn bail-out for Ireland quickly faded as fears returned about the spread of the debt crisis to Portugal and Spain.

• (Guardian) A hellish vision of a world warmed by 4C within a lifetime has been set out by an international team of scientists, who say the agonisingly slow progress of the global climate change talks that restart in Mexico today makes the so-called safe limit of 2C impossible to keep. A 4C rise in the planet's temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse

• (Guardian) Scientists claim to be a step closer to reversing the ageing process after rejuvenating worn out organs in elderly mice. The experimental treatment developed by researchers at Harvard Medical School turned weak and feeble old mice into healthy animals by regenerating their aged bodies.

• Japan's October jobless rate 5.1%.
• Czarnikow cut its global cane-sugar production forecast to 134.5 million tons from 137.9 million tons in August.
• India’s economy grew at 8.9% in Q2

EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself
"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

Quick Overview

• Brazilian navy plans a fleet of 20 subs, six nuclear powered.

• The U.S. Justice Department filed a brief that declared, for the first time, that the U.S. government does not support the patenting of naturally occurring human genes. (About time)

• (FT)Bullion prices denominated in Euros hit a five-month high as concerns about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis swept across financial markets.

• Weekly U.S. jobless claims drop to 407,000, the lowest level since July 2008.

• The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 71.6 in November from 67.7 in October, its highest reading since June.

• The DOE reported:
• Crude-oil inventories rose 1 million barrels
• Supplies of distillates fell 500,000 barrels
• Gasoline stocks rose 1.9 million barrels

• U.S. sales of new single-family homes fell 8.1% in October. There was an 8.6-month supply of homes at the current sales rate. The median sales price fell 14% to $194,900. Sales fell 23.9% in the West, 20.4% in the Midwest and 12.1% in the Northeast. In the South sales gained 3.1%.

• The IGC left world wheat production estimates unchanged at 644 MMT, but raised consumption by 2 MMT to 660 MMT. Global ending stocks are expected down 16 MMT from last season.

• The IGC cut world corn output by 4 MMT from last month to 810 MMT, with ending stocks pegged at 121 MMT, 31 MMT down from last season. World inventories will end 2010-11 at the equivalent of 14.4% of consumption, compared with 18.7% at the close of last season, and tighter than the 16.1% at the end of 2006-07.
• The IGC’s estimate for the world rice harvest was kept at a record 449m tonnes.

• Portugal has, in the face of a squeeze on raw sugar supplies, urged the European Union to relax its import regime, warning that the region has overestimated available supplies of the sweetener.

• (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy output is estimated at 49.5 million tons down from 54.5 MMT last year.

• Across multiple studies, a consistent link was identified between glucose levels and aggression, with sugar consumption making people less prone to unprovoked hostility toward strangers. Additionally, researchers found that U.S. states with higher rates of diabetes — a disorder characterized by low glucose and poor glucose tolerance — were plagued by higher rates of violent crime, even after factoring for poverty.

• (Bloomberg) -- Global sugar supplies may fall short of demand next year as Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of the sweetener, razes and replants enough farmland to cover the state of Connecticut.

• China on Friday reported a further slowdown in industrial profit growth due in part to the nation's ongoing campaign to save energy and cut emissions. Profits of major industrial enterprises in 24 provinces grew 51.6 percent in the first 10 months year on year to 2.8 trillion Yuan (427.1 billion U.S. dollars), 1.9 percentage points lower than that for Jan-Sept, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website.
• In the first nine months, industrial profits decelerated by 2.8 percentage points from the Jan-Aug period. Core business revenue of those enterprises rose by 32.1 percent year on year to 45.3 trillion Yuan in the first 10 months.

• According to the Bank of Korea (BOK), the current account stood at 5.37 billion U.S. dollars in October, rising from 3.95 billion U.S. dollars in September.

• YoY Singapore's manufacturing output increased 31.0 % in October.

• Consumer prices in Japan fell 0.6 % in October, the Japanese government said on Friday.

• Russia says they will import wheat in 2011.

• (Economist)... the Fed has only succeeded in raising America’s broad money supply (as measured by seasonally-adjusted M2) to about $8.8 trillion. China’s central bankers, on the other hand, have increased China’s M2 to almost 70 trillion Yuan, or $10.5 trillion. As Mr. Kroeber points out, China has a greater quantity of money circulating in an economy a third of the size. Who is calling whom easy?

Next Update Sunday Nov. 28