Abandon all hope once you enter deflation
The curse of deflation is that it increases the burden of debts. Incomes fall: debts stay the same. This way lies suffocation. It was bad enough in the early 1930s when US farmers faced a Sisyphean Task trying to meet mortgage payments on their land as crop prices kept sliding. They suffered mass foreclosure and fled West, as recounted in John Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.

Quick Overview

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, up from 5.7% MoM.
  
  
• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 1.6% in September.
  
  

• (Reuters) - Home values in the United States posted their seventh consecutive quarterly decline, with nearly one-third of Americans who sold in the past year losing money, real estate website Zillow.com said on Wednesday.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plans to use the second half of the $700 billion financial rescue program to help relieve pressures on consumer credit, scrapping an effort to buy devalued mortgage assets.

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• Economic sentiment in Germany increased from a record low -63.0 to -53.5

Quick Overview

• China approved stimulus plan worth nearly $600 billion through 2010 to boost domestic demand.
  

• Japan's machinery orders rose 5.5% in September.
  

• U.K.'s producer prices fell 1.0% in October
  

• Canada's new home starts fell 3% MoM.
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was increased from 1.088 to 1.124 billion bushels.
  Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 601 to 603 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 656,000 to 907,000 tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 6.20 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was increased from 106 to 110 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced, from 54.3 to 54.1 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 144 to 145 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 55 to 57 million tons.
  

• The USDA estimates Brazil’s and Argentina's soybean production up 3%, down from last month's estimate of up 5%.
  

Bottom months away: Greenspan
It was only when global demand for U.S. mortgage-backed instruments began to boom in 2005 did the quality of mortgage products begin to deteriorate, he said.
“We hadn't the slightest inclination at the time that the securitization problems would become so large,” he said.

Barack Obama will bring step-change to US economic policy Mr Obama inherits an almighty mess. It is the result of pushing US domestic debt from 130pc of GDP to over 220pc in a half a century of rising leverage. This game has run its course. There will be a slow, painful purge over coming years.

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 6.1% to 6.5% in October -- the highest rate in 14 years. Non-farm payrolls declined 240,000. The Labor Department also revised September's numbers from minus 159,000 to minus 284,000.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 6.1% to 6.2%.

• U.S. wholesale sales were down 1.5% in September ,inventories were fell 0.1%.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said U.S. pending home sales fell 4.6%
  

• Korea reduced its interest rate from 4.25% to 4.00%.
  

• General Motors used $6.9 billion in cash in Q3 and may fall below the minimum it needs to operate before the end of this year.
  

• Ford burns $7.7 billion in the quarter.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Non-farm productivity rose an annual rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, down from plus 3.6% in the second quarter.
  

• (AP) The Labor Department reported Thursday the number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits jumped by 122,000 to 3.84 million in late October. It was the highest level since late February 1983..
  

• The BoE lowered rates from 4.50% to 3.00%.
  

• The European Central Bank cut its rate from 3.75% to 3.25%
  

• Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged in October at 4.3%,.
  

• Canada’s building permitsrose 13.4%.
  

• Inflation in India rose to 10.72 %
  

• The USDA said that, as of last week, 2008-2009 exports of:
  Corn fell from down 30% to down 34% YoY.
  Soybeans improved from down 18% to down 3% YoY.
  Wheat fell from down 11% to down 13% YoY.
  Cotton improved from down 10% to down 9% YoY.
  

• Brazil's Ag Ministry dropped their projection for their 2008/09 (Oct/Sept) soybean crop to 58.4-59.3 million tonness from October's forecast of 60.10-61.27 million tonnes.
  

• F.O. Licht lowered their projection for Argentina's 2008/09 wheat crop to 11.5 mmt from 15.4. This compares with their September forecast of 13.0 mmt.
  

• F.O. Licht raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop to 62.5 million tonnes from 56.0 mmt forecast previously and 49.2 million harvested last year.
  Ukraine's harvest is estimated at 24.5 million tonnes up from last year's 13.7 million tonnes.

America's companies reconquer the world
The oil group Exxon Mobil is once again the global leader with a market value of $390bn. PetroChina briefly had a theoretical paper value of over $1,000bn at the height of the Shanghai bubble but has since crashed to $299bn.
Wal-Mart ($222bn), Microsoft ($207bn). and General Electric ($206) have moved briskly up the ladder, claiming the third, fourth, and fifth slots, with Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway close behind.

Quick Overview

• Barack Obama has been elected the 44th President of the United States. Good Luck, Barack!
  

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of services fell from 50.2 to 44.4 -- a record low.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.2% MoM and down 1.6% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s factory output fell 0.8% in September.
  

• An index of services in the U.K. fell from 46.0 to 42.4 in October.
  

• An index of services in the Euro zone fell from 48.4 to 45.6 in October.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil unchanged last week at 311.9 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.7 million barrels.
  Refinery use remained at 85.3% .
  Gasoline demand fell 2.3% YoY.
  Distillate demand fell 4.8% YoY.
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said there were 100.19 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory in October, up 104% YoY.
  

• Australia reduced its estimated wheat crop from 22.5 to 19.9 million tons.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders fell 2.5% in September, weaker than expected.
  

• YoY producer prices in the Euro area rose 7.9% in September.
  

• China’s Manufacturers Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that factory activity fell to 45.2 from 47.7. (50 and below indicates contraction)
  

• Spain’s unemployment rate reached a 12-year high of 11.3%, the worst in the EU.
  

• The USDA said 55% of the corn crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 79%.
  86% of the soybean crop was harvested, at its regular pace.

• The cost of production for Brazilian soybeans, produced in Mato Grosso, is estimates in a range of $8.27 to 9.19 with transportation costs adding $2.50-3.25 per bushel. This means farmers will need to see a board price north of $11.00 per bushel in the May 09 forward futures in order to lock in a positive return.
  

Recession hits Europe as Club Med debt worries grow
The Spanish government said yesterday it would step in directly to pay half the mortgage costs for those who lose their jobs in order to pre-empt a self-feeding spiral of defaults. The package covers mortgages up to €170,000 for the next two years.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of manufacturing fell from 43.5 to 38.9 in October -- the lowest in 26 years.
  

• U.S. construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.0601 trillion in September, down 0.3% MoM
  

• Euro zone manufacturing fell from 45.0 to 41.1 in October.
  

• U.K. Manufacturing increased from 41.2 to 41.5 in October
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 1.1% in October.
• Australia cuts key interest rate by 0.75 %
  

• The largest ethanol producer in the U.S., Verasun, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
  

• Ford Motor reported a 30% drop in U.S. vehicle sales for October, while Toyota's fell 23%. Car companies from Japan to Italy to Detroit said October sales were the weakest in about 20 years.
  

• World container trade is expected to grow 4.5% in 2008 compared to 9.5% in 2007, said a Global Insight Report. In 2009, US container imports are projected to grow marginally at a rate of 1.6 per cent.

Deflation Now…Inflation Later
Our Trade of the Decade was meant to capture the early stages of this - but only a bit of it: the relationship between gold and stock prices. In 1982, briefly, you could have bought every one of the stocks in the Dow index for a single ounce of gold. But by the time the stock market finished its epic rise, in January 2000, (while gold was doing an epic fall!) you would have needed 44 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. Now, that ratio has come down considerably. You only need about 13 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. And as stocks come down, the ratio is likely to fall below 5…and eventually back to 1 to 1 (at which time, remember, it will be time to sell gold and buy shares).

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.2% in September and consumer spending fell 0.3%.
  
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.7% in the third quarter.
  
  

• YoY the core rate of personal consumption expenditures rose 2.4% in September.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 57.6 from 57.5
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.3% in August rose 0.6% YoY.
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area remained at 7.5% in September.
  

• Japan reduced its interest rate from 0.50% to 0.30%
  Japan’s consumer prices rose 2.1% YoY.
  Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 4.2% to 4.0%.
  

• F.O. Licht estimates world sugar consumption up 1.8% in 2008-2009 outpacing production by 472,300 tons.
  

• Fortis Bank estimates world coco production to exceed consumption by 52,000 tons in 2008-2009.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP shrank 0.3% in the third quarter.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were unchanged last week.
  

• China lowered interest rates from 6.93% to 6.66%.
  

• Canada's industrial prices fell 1.2% in September, but rose 8.0% YoY.
  

• Japan proposed a new stimulus package by giving $600 to every family household.
  

• Unemployment in Germany fell under the 3m, the lowest in 16 years.
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. state leaders, trade groups and economists descended on the House of Representatives on Wednesday to help work out a second economic stimulus bill that one influential Congressional member said would be introduced on November 17.

World will struggle to meet oil demand Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Fed cut the federal funds rate from 1.50% to 1.00%, and the discount rate from 1.75% to 1.25%.
  
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in September. Excluding transportation orders fell 1.1%.
  
  
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 500,000 barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use increased last week from 84.8% to 85.3% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 3.4%YoY
  Distillate demand fell 5.2% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities fell 1.0% in August and 16.6% YoY. YoY prices fell more than 30% in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Prices in Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego all fell more than 25%.
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 61.4 to a record low 38.0 in October.
  

• Iceland’s raised interest rates to 18% to prop up its frozen currency and markets.
  
  

• Because of a computer error the USDA issued new supply and demand estimates for 2008-2009 corn and soybeans.
  Corn was reduced from 1.154 to 1.088 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were reduced from 220 to 205 million bushels.
  
  
  

• Canada had 12.8 million hogs in inventory on October 1st, down 10.9% YoY.
  

• (Reuters) - Iraq's government denounced on Tuesday a U.S. air strike on a Syrian border village in an unexpected rebuke of Washington.

Sales of ships for scrap being 'suffocated'
"All the issues that will help the recovery are probably coming faster than people expect," Mr Soanes said.

IMF may need to "print money" as crisis spreads
"The IMF can in theory create liquidity like a central bank," said an informed source. "There are a lot of ideas kicking around."

Forecasters Race to Call the Bottom to the Market Even in normal times, forecasters have a strong incentive to make extreme predictions, which is why those “Dow 1,000!” reports persist. “It’s eye-popping. It’s relevant. It seems exciting,” Mr. Lamont said. Such predictions attract publicity, name recognition and a bigger client base in a business where investors pay thousands, if not millions, for stock advice and investment guidance.

Quick Overview

• U.S. new home sales were at an annual rate of 464,000 in September, up 2.7% MoM and down 36% YoY.
  

• South Korea cut its interest rate from 5.00% to 4.25%.
  

• Australia intervened on Friday and bought Australian dollars.

• Japan's retail sales fell 0.4% YoY
  

• The Group of Seven expressed concern about the soaring Japanese yen – are they next to intervene?
  

Farm-Credit Squeeze May Cut Crops, Spur Food Crisis (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- The credit crunch is compounding a profit squeeze for farmers that may curb global harvests and worsen a food crisis for developing countries.

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales were at an annual rate of 5.18 million units, up 5.5% in September.
  
  

• U.K.'s GDP fell 0.5% in the third quarter.
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 3.4%.
  

• YoY GDP in South Korea rose 3.9%
  

• OPEC wants to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day
  

• The port of Rotterdam announced that throughput during the first nine months of the year rose by 6.1% YoY. Most types of cargo showed a positive trend, with agribulk up 26% YoY, liquid bulk up 16%, ores and scrap up 11%, coal up 9%, crude oil up 7%, containers up 6%.
  

• The IMF is aiding Iceland with about $2.1bn.
  

Tough to believe Greenspan's disbelief .."those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief."
Cue up Casablanca, and the "I'm shocked, shocked, to find gambling here," line from the Captain Renault character.
The truth is that the executives at financial institutions had very little interest in protecting shareholder's equity.

GLG's Roman, NYU's Roubini Predict Hedge Fund Failures, Panic
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University Professor who spoke at the same conference, said hundreds of hedge funds will fail as the crisis forces investors to dump assets. ``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' said Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006. ``Don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were up 15,000 last week to 478,000, more than expected.
  

• New Zealand cut its interest rate from 7.5% to 6.5%
  

• Sweden cut its interest rate from 4.25% to 3.75%
  

• U.K.'s retail sales volume fell 0.4% in September.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area fell 1.2% in August
  

• RealtyTrac said 765,558 foreclosure filings were made on U.S. properties in the third quarter of this year - up 3% from the second quarter and 71% YoY.

Greenspan Urges Tighter Regulation After `Breakdown' (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called for tighter regulation of financial companies, distancing himself from the free-market culture that he helped to create.

Credit-Rating Companies `Sold Our Soul' for Pay, Employees Said
(Bloomberg) -- Employees at Moody's Investors Service told executives that issuing dubious creditworthy ratings to mortgage-backed securities made it appear they were incompetent or ``sold our soul to the devil for revenue,'' according to e-mails obtained by U.S. House investigators.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4%
  Canada’s index of leading indicators fell 0.2% in September
  

• Australia's consumer prices rose 5.0%.

• New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a record 1% to 6.5%
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.2 million barrels to 311.4 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use increased from 82.2% to 84.8% of capacity
  Gasoline demand fell 4.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 5.8% YoY
  

Don't make a drama out of this financial crisis
The scale of what has happened is breath-taking. The oil price has halved since July. Wheat prices have halved since spring. Rice prices are down by a third. Remember that early this year there were riots in many developing countries – not over the antics of Wall Street investment bankers but over the price of food. And in many countries, until recently anyway, the forces pushing towards recession have been more about the squeeze on real incomes than about the credit crunch. What will happen now is that, thanks to the fall in commodity prices, the squeeze will go into reverse, thereby handing purchasing power back to the consumers.

Spreading the wealth
And there is a lot of spreading potential: income distribution in America is the widest of the 30 countries of the OECD. The top 10% (or decile) of earners have an average $87,257 of disposable income, while those in the bottom decile have $5,819, among the very lowest of any country.

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity fell from -1.81 to -2.57 in September.
  

• Canada reduced its interest rate from 2.50% to 2.25%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds plunged, sending benchmark dollar yields over 24 percent, and stocks sank the most in a decade on speculation the government will nationalize pension funds in a bid to attain financing and stave off a second default this decade.
  

• Cash strapped Pakistan is looking for loans from the IMF and other bodies of up to $15 billion to avert a balance of payment crisis.

• China will raise tax rebates for a quarter of its exports and jumpstart infrastructure projects, trying to buffer the impact of weaker overseas demand.

• China intends to set up a soybean reserve of up to 1.5 million tonnes.

The United States, Europe and Bretton Woods II
The Europeans are not looking to challenge the reality of American power, they are looking to increase the degree to which the rest of the world can influence the dynamics of the American economy, with an eye toward limiting the ability of the Americans to accidentally destabilize the international financial system again.

Coffee and chocolate are the key to long life
Chocolate, coffee and tea are among the key foods and drinks needed to live a long and healthy life, according to a leading nutritional scientist.

Quick Overview

• Bernanke endorsed a new economic stimulus package -- Bush is open to the idea.
  

• YoY China's economy expanded at 9% in the third quarter.
  

• Sweden became the latest European economy to introduce a bailout plan to support its banks.
  

• Canada wholesale sales fell 1.5% in August
  

• U.K.'s budget deficit out at 37.6 billion pounds in the first half of 2008-2009.

• India cut its discount rate from 9% to 8%.

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success (Update1)
``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''

Quick Overview

• Warren Buffett said “bad news is an investor's best friend” – he’s buying U.S. stocks.
  

• U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 817,000 in September, down 6.3% MoM, and down 31% YoY.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.3 to 57.5
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index unchanged in September -- up 4.9 YoY. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.1% -- up 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 2.8% in September
  

• U.S. Capacity utilization fell from 78.7% to 76.4%.
  

• The Philadelphia regional index of manufacturing fell from +3.8 to -37.5
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 3.7% in August.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 5.6 million barrels to 308.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 7.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose 80.9% to 82.2% last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 5.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.9% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. stocks dropped the most since the crash of 1987, fed by bleak economic data.

• Japan pledged unlimited supply of dollars to lenders.
  

• Hong Kong guaranteed all bank deposits.

• European car sales fell 8.2% last month. BMW has begun to idle three plants - Opel has shut a factory.

• U.S. producer prices fell 0.4% MoM, but rose 8.7% YoY.
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in September, weaker than expected.
  

• The Empire State manufacturing index fell from -7.4 to -24.62 in October.
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.6% in September.
  

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.5%.

• Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September.
  

Bloomberg (October 14, 2008) Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End (click for video):

Europe stuns with €1.5 trillion bank rescue, as France plays role of saviour
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Holland and Austria have joined forces to launch the greatest bank bail-out in history, offering over €1.5 trillion in guarantees and fresh capital in a "shock and awe" blitz to halt the credit panic.

Quick Overview

• Bush said the government is taking a $250 billion stake in the nation's top financial institutions as part of its latest plan to tackle the credit crisis.
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 5.2%.
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area rose 1.1% in August, but fell 0.7% YoY.
  

• Australia will spend A$10.4 billion to help stimulate the economy.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind fell 0.7% QoQ. YoY it is up 2%.
  

Paulson's statement on actions to protect the US economy
Today I am announcing that the Treasury will purchase equity stakes in a wide array of banks and thrifts. Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans – me included. Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable. When financing isn’t available, consumers and businesses shrink their spending, which leads to businesses cutting jobs and even closing up shop.

This Is What Denial Does
But one of the benefits of modernity is our ability to spot trends and predict results. If fish in a depleted ecosystem grow by 5% a year and the catch expands by 10% a year, the fishery will collapse. If the global economy keeps growing at 3% a year (or 1700% a century) it too will hit the wall.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. government is closed for Columbus Day.
  

• The Dow Industrials rose 936.42 points -- 11%, as global plans to rescue banks through capital injections sent the DJI to its biggest one-day point gain ever.
  
  

A light at the end of the tunnel?
..At first blush—and in contrast to previous failures after half-hearted efforts—the new plans seem to be working...

European Leaders Vow Bank Guarantees, Bid to Stop Financial Rot
The key measures announced today are: a pledge to guarantee new bank debt issuance until the end of 2009; permission for governments to shore up banks by buying preferred shares; and a commitment to recapitalize any ``systemically'' critical banks in distress.