Bloomberg (October 14, 2008) Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End (click for video):

Europe stuns with €1.5 trillion bank rescue, as France plays role of saviour
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Holland and Austria have joined forces to launch the greatest bank bail-out in history, offering over €1.5 trillion in guarantees and fresh capital in a "shock and awe" blitz to halt the credit panic.

Quick Overview

• Bush said the government is taking a $250 billion stake in the nation's top financial institutions as part of its latest plan to tackle the credit crisis.
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 5.2%.
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area rose 1.1% in August, but fell 0.7% YoY.
  

• Australia will spend A$10.4 billion to help stimulate the economy.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind fell 0.7% QoQ. YoY it is up 2%.
  

Paulson's statement on actions to protect the US economy
Today I am announcing that the Treasury will purchase equity stakes in a wide array of banks and thrifts. Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans – me included. Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable. When financing isn’t available, consumers and businesses shrink their spending, which leads to businesses cutting jobs and even closing up shop.

This Is What Denial Does
But one of the benefits of modernity is our ability to spot trends and predict results. If fish in a depleted ecosystem grow by 5% a year and the catch expands by 10% a year, the fishery will collapse. If the global economy keeps growing at 3% a year (or 1700% a century) it too will hit the wall.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. government is closed for Columbus Day.
  

• The Dow Industrials rose 936.42 points -- 11%, as global plans to rescue banks through capital injections sent the DJI to its biggest one-day point gain ever.
  
  

A light at the end of the tunnel?
..At first blush—and in contrast to previous failures after half-hearted efforts—the new plans seem to be working...

European Leaders Vow Bank Guarantees, Bid to Stop Financial Rot
The key measures announced today are: a pledge to guarantee new bank debt issuance until the end of 2009; permission for governments to shore up banks by buying preferred shares; and a commitment to recapitalize any ``systemically'' critical banks in distress.

Lehman Brothers demise triggers huge default
An auction of Lehman’s bonds yesterday determined that the bank’s borrowings were worth only 8.625 cents on the dollar. The valuation leaves the insurers of the debt a bill of about $365 billion. It is not clear whether the insurers, which are required to settle the bill in the next two weeks, will be able to pay – a development that could further undermine increasingly stressed capital markets.

Paulson Says Will Buy Bank Equity `Soon as We Can' (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity ``as soon as we can'' in banks and other financial institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth.

G-7 Commit to `All Necessary Steps' to Stem Crisis (Update2)
``The current situation calls for urgent and exceptional action,'' the G-7's finance ministers and central bankers said in a 266-word statement after talks in Washington. Officials pledged to ``take all necessary steps to unfreeze credit and money markets'' without detailing how that would be accomplished.

Quick Overview

• All hands on deck! Officials from G-7 /G-8 meet to conside ways to stem the panic.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to meet with the credit-default swap industry to accelerate plans for a central clearinghouse for the $55 trillion market.

• Preliminary results of the auction credit-default swaps indicate an initial value of 9.75 cents on the dollar

• U.S. exports fell $3.4 billion in August to $164.7 billion while imports fell $5.5 billion to $223.9 billion -- resulting in imports of $59.1 billion.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate remained at 6.1%.
  

• Germany is working on a plan to prop up its major banks that may well include taking government stakes.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks for:
  Corn was increased from 1.018 to 1.154 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were increased from 135 to 220 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 574 to 601 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 505,000 to 656,000 tons.
  Cotton was increased from 4.90 to 6.20 million bales.
  

• The USDA estimates 2008-2009 world ending stocks for:
  Corn was reduced from 110 to 108 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 51 to 55 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 52 to 55 million tons.
  The USDA estimates the Florida orange crop at 166 million boxes, down from last season's 170 million boxes. The projected juice yield was 1.59 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down from last year's record high 1.67 gallons per box.
  

• The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast of 2008 world oil demand from 86.7 to 86.5 million barrels per day, an increase of just 0.5% from last year. In 2009, the IEA is expecting world demand to increase 0.8% to 87.2 million barrels per day.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale sales fell 1.0% in August -- inventories rose 0.8%.
  


• U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 last week to 478,000.
  


• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1% in September
  


• Japan's machinery orders fell 14.5% in August,
  


• GDP in the Euro area fell 0.2% in the second quarter.
  


• S&P put GM's credit on a negative watch list. GM dropped 31%, their lowest level since 1950 as it contends with a deteriorating global sales and deteriorating cash reserves.
  

Financial Crisis: Who is going to bail out the euro?
The US has guaranteed the $3.5 trillion money market funds. It has nationalised the $5.3 trillion pillars of the mortgage market, Fannie and Freddie. The Fed is accepting any junk as collateral at its lending window. This week it went the whole hog after panic hit the $1.6 trillion market for commercial paper. It is now offering loans without any security at all. The US government has become a bank. Yes, this is US socialism. What is the alternative

Attacking Cancer Stem Cells
A team of researchers at Harvard Medical School has now developed a new way to find drugs that selectively kill cancer stem cells or prevent them from dividing.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Fed lowered rates from 2.00% to 1.50%.
  

• The ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden each cut their benchmark rates by half a percentage point.
  The ECB's rate is now 3.75 %; Canada's 2.5%; the U.K.'s at 4.5%; and Sweden's rate at 4.25%.

• China cut its interest rate from 7.20% to 6.93%
  

• U.S. pending home sales rose 7.4% in August, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 8.1 million barrels to 302.6 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline rose 7.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 72.3% to 80.9%
  Gasoline demand fell 5.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.3% YoY.
  
  

• (Bloomberg) Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tons a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.

ECB sees crisis of "enormous proportions" as Spain creates mortgage rescue fund
The result is a mish-mash of policies that have eroded the confidence of Asian and Mid-East investors, sending the euro into free-fall. Economists have begun to warn openly about the risks of an EMU break-up.

Quick Overview

• In its efforts to stem the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and Treasury created a new lending facility to help backstop the commercial paper market.
  

• The EU's Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank injected $70 billion to the banking system to keep the sector liquid.
  

• Iceland nationalized its second-largest bank and is negotiating a loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances. Meanwhile Russia unveiled an aid package for its own banks.
  
  
• Australia reduced its interest rate from 7.0% to 6.0% -- more than expected.
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing output fell 0.4% in August.
  

• Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• The DOE said average household heating fuel costs this winter will be 15 percent higher than last year.

Quick Overview

• Germanys Merkel announced that all private deposits in German banks would from now on be guaranteed.
  
  

• The USDA said:
  14% of the corn crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 30%.
  31% of the soybean crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 41%.
  16% of the cotton crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 24%.
  59% of the winter wheat crop was planted.
  

• Bank of America announced a dividend cut and a plan to sell $10 billion in stock to raise capital.

A lighter view of the Sub Prime Crisis

Germany takes hot seat as Europe falls into the abyss

Drastic rate cuts would be a good start. Central bankers still paralysed by a misplaced fear of inflation – whether in Europe, Britain, or the US – have become a public menace and should be held to severe account by our democracies. The imminent and massive danger is now self-feeding debt deflation.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Payrolls fell by 159,000, the biggest job loss in over five years. U.S. Jobless rate remained at 6.1%.

• Institute of Supply Managements' index of services fell from 50.6 to 50.2
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area rose 0.3%
  

• An index of services in the U.K. fell from 49.2 to 46.0 in September
  

• World airfreight traffic saw its third consecutive month of contraction with a 2.7% decline for August.

• Congress passed the $700 billion financial rescue

Investors start fresh gold rush
The investors’ response is a rush into physical gold not seen since the second oil crisis in 1979, bankers say. The shift into gold coins and bars is so extreme that it is causing shortages at refineries and mints around the world.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Senate approved the $700 bailout plan.
  

• U.S. factory orders fell 4.0% in August, more than expected.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. Trichet said policy makers “discussed” cutting interest rate.
  

• Producer prices in the Euro area fell 0.5% in August.
  

Financial Crisis: So much for tirades against American greed
We now know that it was French finance minister Christine Lagarde who begged Mr Paulson to save the US insurer AIG last week. AIG had written $300 billion in credit protection for European banks, admitting that it was for "regulatory capital relief rather than risk mitigation". In other words, it was underpinning a disguised extension of credit leverage. Its collapse would have set off a lending crunch across Europe as banking capital sank below water level.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Senate set a vote for tonight on a $700 billion financial-rescue plan, along with raising the limit on federal deposit insurance to $250,000 from $100,000. Business and trade groups urged Washington to enact the plan, warning that inaction would have grim consequences
  

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of manufacturing fell from 49.9 to 43.5, a lot weaker than expected.
  

• Unemployment for the Euro area rose from 7.4% to 7.5% in August.
  

• U.K.'s index of services rose 0.6% in July
  U.K.’s manufacturing fell from 45.3 to 41.0
  

• Japan's Cabinet agreed to a $17 billion stimulus package.
  

• Manufacturing in Australia improved from 47.0 to 47.2
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 4.3 million barrels to 294.5 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline rose 900,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.3 million barrels.
  Refinery use improved from 66.7% to 72.3%
  Gasoline demand fell 4.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.4% YoY.

• Sales of cars and light trucks fell 35% YoY at Ford, 32% at Toyota and 24% at Honda. GM's fell 16%, Nissan Motor fell 37 %.
  

Quick Overview

• According to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index U.S. Home prices fell 0.9% in July, and down 16.3% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence rose from 56.9 to 59.8 in September.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 57.9 to 56.7 in September
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.7% in July and up 1.2% YoY.
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.2% in August.
  Japan’s industrial production fell 3.5% in August
  Japans household spending fell 4.0%
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 1.5%
  

• Euro zone consumer prices rose 3.6%.
  
  

• The USDA said as of September 1st, stocks of:
  Corn totaled 1.624 billion bushels.
  Soybeans totaled 205 million bushels.
  Wheat totaled 1.857 billion bushels.
  

• Bush signed a spending bill that includes a $25 billion loan package for troubled automakers
  
  
  

Banking crash hits Europe as ECB loses traction
Data from the IMF shows that European banks hold 75pc as much exposure to toxic US housing debt as US banks themselves. Moreover they have mounting bad debts from the British, Spanish, French, Dutch, Scandinavian, and East European housing markets, where property bubbles reached even more extreme levels that in the US.

U.S. Stocks Plunge After House Votes Against Bailout Plan

'Unimaginable'

``They've got to come up with something or the damage is unimaginable,'' said Henry Herrmann, Overland Park, Kansas-based president and chief executive officer of Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., which manages $70 billion.

Quick Overview

• Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve increased the size of previously arranged currency swaps with foreign central banks to $620 billion from $290 billion to make more dollars available to banks worldwide.
  

• U.S. Consumer spending was unchanged in August.
  

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.5%.
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales rose 0.7% in August.

US Economy: Even Hank Paulson's bail-out plan cannot detox global banking
Hopes that the world can cruise happily on as the US buckles have been dashed by the violent downturn across Europe and Asia over the summer. The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates for ships has plummeted by two thirds since May. Japan’s economy is already contracting. China’s may be close behind: a third of all textile factories in Guangdong have closed this year. House prices are tumbling in Shenzen, Beijing, Shanghai.

While Rome burns
Sceptics on that point prefer to look at European banks’ leverage ratios, which measure the amount of capital banks hold relative to total assets. By some estimates, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and UBS have leverage ratios of 1.2%, 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, which would make broker-dealers weep with fear. Get the risk calculations wrong (it can happen) and the cushion of capital looks horribly thin.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - Washington Mutual Inc was closed by the U.S. government in by far the largest failure of a U.S. bank, and its banking assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co for $1.9 billion.
  

• Congress might be close to a deal on the $700 billion financial sector bailout.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 4.5% in August -- weaker than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down 3.0%.
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 11.5% from July's pace -- weaker than expected.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 32,000 last week to 493,000
  

• Japan's manufacturing sentiment improved from -15.1 to -10.0
  

• Bellwether GE cut its earnings outlook and announced steps to strengthen its capital base, including suspending share repurchases and holding its dividend flat through next year.
  

• YoY, Global Insight anticipates inbound cargo volumes at US ports will be down 6%.

EU refuses bail-out package despite crisis fears
Mr Gross said Deutsche Bank deploys fifty times leverage and has liabilites of $2,000bn, equivalent to 80pc of Germany’s GDP. Fortis Bank has liabilities of 300pc of Belgian GDP. These dwarf the burden of any US bank on the US government balance sheet. He said EU states do not have the means to bail out these banks. Any rescue would have to come from the European Central Bank, yet it is not allowed to carry out bail-outs under the Maastricht Treaty law.

The Winter of Our Discontent
The Bush administration used the 9/11 attacks as an excuse for the biggest increase in military spending and police power since WWII.

Now it is using the market correction (caused largely by its own interventions in the credit industry) to expand state power in the financial area. Half of all Americans pay their mortgages, directly or indirectly, to the federal government. Most older Americans depend, in whole or in part, on money from the government to live. Now, Americans depend on the government to keep house prices up - by subsidizing demand for mortgage backed securities - and to keep up stock and bond prices too - by buying up Wall Street's mistakes. Homeowners want protection from their own bad judgment. Investors want protection from Mr. Market. The old want free medicine. The young want free schooling. The unemployed want jobs and money. The rich want politicians in their pockets. The poor want the rich's money. Investors, homeowners, pensioners - is there anyone left in America who isn't trying to pick someone else's pocket?

Bringing Down Wall Street as Ratings Let Loose Subprime Scourge
``I view the ratings agencies as one of the key culprits,'' says Joseph Stiglitz, 65, the Nobel laureate economist at Columbia University in New York. ``They were the party that performed that alchemy that converted the securities from F- rated to A-rated. The banks could not have done what they did without the complicity of the ratings agencies.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales fell 2.2% on the month -- weaker than expected.
  

• Business confidence in Germany dropped from 94.8 to 92.9 in September, the lowest in three years.
  

• Pressure to regulate the $62,000bn credit derivatives market mounted as the main US market regulator called on Congress to pass laws to supervise the industry
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 77.4% to 66.7% of capacity
  Gasoline demand fell 3.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 5.5% YoY
  

• (Bloomberg) -- CME Group Inc., the world's largest futures exchange, will offer a steel contract beginning Oct. 19 after the rival London Metal Exchange introduced a similar product earlier this year.

• (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp. Chairman Peter Munk said bullion prices will go higher, driven by large-scale buying by ``major, major'' holders of dollars who fear the effects of the U.S. government's bailout plan on the currency.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Richmond Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from -16 to -18 in September.
  
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 3.5% in August.

• Industrial orders for the Euro area rose 1.0% in July.
  

• Goldman is getting $5 billion from Buffett.
  

• (FT) Investors in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have amassed a record 1,039.68 tonnes of bullion, becoming the largest holders of gold after the reserves of the US, Germany, the International Monetary Fund, Italy, France and Switzerland.

Mr. Market Will Have His Say
At some point - and here we are just guessing, of course - investors are going to put two and two together. They're going to realize that every increase in the U.S. government's debts and financial obligations DECREASES the value of its paper - notably, the U.S. dollar…and U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Financial Crisis: America rises to the occasion as storm heads for Europe
The US government debt (owed to the public, using the IMF measure) is just 48pc of GDP, one of the lowest of the G7 industrial powers. This compares with 57pc for Germany, 94pc for Japan, and 100pc for Italy. After the Second World War, the US debt touched 120pc of GDP. As the Habsburgs liked to say, today's drama is desperate but not serious.

Life Imitates Farce
"How fabulous," writes Brian Reade in the British tabloid The Mirror. "Thanks to the way it props up the USA's two biggest mortgage firms, more than half of American homes are now effectively owned by the state… Who'd have imagined that when the most right-wing of neo-cons leaves office 50% of the Land of the Free will effectively be [public housing]"?

Yes, almost every imbecilic act we could imagine has become fact. No exaggeration is too extreme. Life imitates farce.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve agreed to convert Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs into traditional bank holding companies. The move effectively put an end to the investment banking industry, 75 years after its creation.
  

• (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Monday as the U.S. government's $700 billion bailout plan aimed at easing a global credit crisis raised renewed concerns about the country's massive budget deficit.
  

• Cargo volume at major US retail container ports is expected to fall 6% in 2008 compared with 2007 on the back of the global economic slowdown, according to the monthly Port Tracker report.
  

• Clarkson, the London shipbroker, says world containership orders fell 49% so far this year as charter rates slump, freight rates come under pressure and growth volumes shrink on major trade lanes.
  
  
  

Democrats Pledge Quick Action on Rescue Legislation (Update1)
Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Democratic lawmakers said they would act quickly on a $700 billion rescue plan for financial companies, while demanding that the legislation limit compensation for executives of companies that will benefit.

Updates resume September 21

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices fell 0.9% in August, but rose 9.6% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in August.
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in August. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.7% in August.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose 63.0 to 73.1.
  

• Japan's GDP fell 0.7% in the second quarter.
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 0.3% in July.

• YoY China's retail sales rose 23% in August.
  

• Asia - Europe volumes continue to rise according to Far Eastern Freight Conference statistics, which record a 3.2% YoY westbound container throughput increase in July, and a 7.5% jump to 5.75 million TEU in the first seven months.
  
  

• The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 1.133 to 1.018 billion bushels.
  Soybeans unchanged at 135 million bushels.
  Wheat unchanged at 574 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 767,000 to 505,000 tons.
  Cotton was increased from 4.6 to 4.9 million bales.
  

• The USDA's world 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 112 to 110 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 49 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 136 to 140 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 51 to 52 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's estimate of 2008 beef production unchanged at 26.69 billion pounds
  

• The USDA's estimate of 2008 pork production was reduced from 23.6 to 23.5 billion pounds
  

• INTERFAX-CHINA - Lower iron ore demand from China is a major factor behind the sliding Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of the freight rates of raw materials, which plunged from above 10,000 points five months ago to around 5,000 points on Sept. 9, industry analysts told Interfax on Sept. 10.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit grew 5.7% to $62.2 billion, the largest in 16 months. U.S. exports increased $5.4 billion to $162.8 billion in July while imports increased $8.7 billion to $221.6 billion.
  

• (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers shares lost about 40 percent on Thursday as Wall Street questioned whether the investment bank will survive because of its failure to sell assets to cover losses from toxic real estate investments.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 6,000 last week to 445,000.
  

• Canada’s exports rose 2.2% in July while imports rose 4.6%, resulting in net exports of C$4.9 billion, down from C$5.6 billion in June.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 3.9% in July.
  

• Analysts forecast world container trade will grow by 8.7% this year, down from an earlier estimate of 9.7%. They estimate ship capacity will grow by 13.2%.

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications rose 9.5% last week, but fell 24% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan’s wholesale prices rose 7.2% in August
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.9 million barrels to 289.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 6.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 88.7% to 78.3%
  Gasoline demand fell 2.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.4%.
  

• ED&F Man predicts that world sugar production will fall short of consumption by 700,000 tons in 2008-2009.
  

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales fell 3.2% in July and down 6.8% YoY.
  

• Lehman shares fell 45% after a Korean official said talks about an investment by Korea Development Bank have ended. This also ended the jubilation that greeted the US government's bail-out of Fannie and Freddie as worries about the financial sector and the health of the broader global economy returned.
  

• Canada’s housing starts rose 15% from July's pace.
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing production fell 0.2% in July.
  

• Business confidence in Australia rose from -9 to -7 in August.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. government is taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an effort to save the mortgage industry and keep the whole show from going over the cliff.
  

• U.K.'s producer prices fell 0.6% in August
  

• Hurricane Ike is currently headed toward Texas or Louisiana.
  

• (Reuters) - Global meat consumption is expected to rise about 20 percent higher by 2015 due to Chinese demand.
  

• (Bloomberg) - With rising fuel prices China's extensive rail network looks set to triple intermodal transport by moving 10 million TEU in three years compared to 3.5 million in 2007.

Updates resume September 7 or 8