Quick Overview

• The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.1% in April.
  
  

• Construction output in the Euro zone fell 2.2% in March and down 1.4% YoY.
  
  

• Data Quick said home sales in southern California rose 22% in April.
  
  

• The USDA said:
  73% of the corn crop was planted, down from its five-year average of 88%.
  27% of the soybean crop was planted, down from its five-year average of 47%.
  94% of the spring wheat crop was planted.
  45% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 47% a week ago.
  49% of the cotton crop was planted, down from its five-year average of 59%.
  
  

• The cost of scanning 100% of inbound containers to prevent terrorists smuggling into the U.S. has been estimated at more than US$500 per unit.

Barclays gets bullish over American shares
Barclays' closely-watched Signpost report says the US is at last beginning to claw its way out of trouble, while investors no longer seem spooked by every piece of bad news.

‘Superfood’ celery combats brain diseases The compounds luteolin and diosmin appear to block the inflammation that causes the brains of victims to start shrinking and dying. In animal experiments they reduced the levels of amyloid beta, which forms the sticky deposits that build up in the brains of patients with Alzheimer’s.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Home construction rose 8.2% in April, making the biggest increase in two years. However, the rise was driven by a surge in multifamily housing, while single-family starts dropped.
  

• The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index fell from 62.6 to 59.5 in May.
  
  

• Japan's GDP rose 3.3% in the January to March quarter.
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose 9.4%.
  

• Hong Kong’s GDP speeded up in the first quarter, rising 1.8% from the previous quarter, and 7.1% YoY.
  

• Freight cost for commodities such as iron ore and grains rose to a fresh all-time high Friday.

Consumer Price Index "GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE SUSPECTED BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK!"
In particular, changes made in CPI methodology during the Clinton Administration understated inflation significantly, and, through a cumulative effect with earlier changes that began in the late-Carter and early Reagan Administrations have reduced current social security payments by roughly half from where they would have been otherwise. That means Social Security checks today would be about double had the various changes not been made. In like manner, anyone involved in commerce, who relies on receiving payments adjusted for the CPI, has been similarly damaged. On the other side, if you are making payments based on the CPI (i.e., the federal government), you are making out like a bandit.

Quick Overview

• U.S industrial production fell 0.7% MoM, matching the largest decline since the one following Hurricane Katrina
  

• The Fed’s Philadelphia's index of manufacturing improved from -24.9 to -15.6 in May
  

• The Fed’s New York's index of manufacturing fell from +.63 to -3.23 in May,

• GDP in the Euro area rose 0.7% in the first quarter of 2008 and up 2.2% YoY.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 8.3% in March.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing fell 1.6% on the month.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said underground supplies of natural gas rose 93 billion cubic feet to 1.529 trillion cubic feet.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer price index rose 0.2% in April and 3.9% YoY-- less than expected. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.1% in April, and 2.3% YoY.
  

• U.S. Mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week.
  
  

• YoY, China's industrial production rose 15.7% in April
  
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 0.2% in March.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil inventories rose 200,000 barrels last week to 325.8 million barrels.
• Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 85.0% to 86.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% YoY.
  Distillate demand rose 0.8% YoY.
  

Dry bulk market in 'riot mode' THE dry bulk market is officially in “riot mode” this week, according to one shipbroker, as freight rates climb to record highs.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.2% MoM, but rose 2.0% YoY.
  

• YoY consumer process rose 3.0% in the U.K.
  

• YoY China's retail sales rose 22% in April.
  
  

• The USDA said yesterday that 51% of the corn crop was planted, down from the five-year average of 77%.
  
  YoY South Africa’s gold production fell 10.1% in the first quarter
  

Quick Overview

• China's April inflation rose to 8.5%.

• China’s Sichuan province was hit by a magnitude-7.9 earthquake, the nation's strongest in 58 years.
  

• YoY U.K.'s producer prices rose 7.5%
  

• YoY India’s industrial production rose 3.0% in March.
  

• The ISO estimates 2007-08 world sugar production at 8 million ton surplus, down from its earlier estimate of 9.3 million ton surplus. For 2008-9 they expect a small production deficit.
  

The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
The bears at Société Générale are going into Siberian hibernation, issuing an "Ice Age" alert. They have slashed exposure to global equities to a minimum 30pc for the first time ever.

Their weighting of super-safe "AAA" government bonds has been raised to a maximum 50pc. This is a bet on gruelling "Japanese" deflation. The bank expects equities to fall by 50pc to 75pc.

"Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios," said Albert Edward, SG's global strategist.

Home truths
It is not hard to see why politicians are so keen to help. For all the hope that the worst may be over in financial markets, the housing mess is getting nastier. Nationally, house prices have fallen between 3% and 13% depending on which index you look at. And they have further to sink. The stock of unsold homes is huge and the ratio of prices to rents suggests that property is still expensive (see article). Some 1.5m households went into foreclosure in 2007, up 50% from the year before. And with 9m people owing more than their house is worth, that figure is likely to soar.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 5.7% to $58.21 billion in March, more than expected.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1% in April
  
  
  

• USDA estimates for the 2008-2009 season ending stocks:
  Corn is 763 million bushels, down from 1.383 billion bushels in 2007-2008.
  Soybeans are 185 million bushels, up from 145 million bushels in 2007-2008.
  Wheat is 483 million bushels, up from 239 million bushels in 2007-2008.
  Sugar is 1.336 million tons, down from 1.757 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Cotton is 5.60 million bales, down from 9.90 million bales in 2007-2008.
  
  

• USDA 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn is 99 million tons, down from 110 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Wheat is 124 million tons, up from 110 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Cotton is 56 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2007-2008.
  
  
  

Greenspan says worst of credit crisis over: sources
Greenspan also said house prices still had a long way to fall and that it was unlikely they would stabilize by year-end,

Quick Overview

• U.S. Wholesale inventories fell 0.1%.


• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0%.


• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.0%.


• Canada’s housing starts fell 12% MoM.


• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in April.
  


• In a bid to rein in soaring prices, India has extended its futures trading ban to four more food commodities.
  


• Ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture's next production and stocks update, Allendale Inc. is projecting an increase in soybean stocks, a decrease for corn and the biggest U.S. wheat crop since 2003.


• Wal-Mart Stores reported a 3.2% climb in U.S. same-store sales.

Baltic Dry Index Exceeds 10,000 for First Time Since December
``The market is very, very close to equilibrium in terms of demand and supply,'' said Alex Gray, London-based chief executive officer of Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world's biggest shipbroker. ``What we are seeing at the moment is a building up of pressure around iron-ore shipments and grains.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter.
  

• U.S. unit labor costs rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter.
  

• U.S. pending home sales index fell 1.0% in March and down 20.1% YoY.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.4% in March.
  

• U.K.'s factory output fell 0.5% in March.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 5.7 million barrels last week to 325.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 100,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.4% to 85.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.5% YoY.
  
  

• Statistics Canada said:
  Wheat stocks were down 32% YoY.
  Canola stocks were down 22% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• An index of services in the U.K. fell from 52.1 to 50.4 in April, weaker than expected.
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%.

• (WSJ)..it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200 (Update4)
``The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty,'' the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 49.6 to 52.0.
  

• (WSJ) Casino operator Tropicana Entertainment is expected to file for bankruptcy protection. It would be the largest corporate bankruptcy of the year, and the latest blow to Las Vegas, which has seen gambling revenues decline and major building projects canceled or delayed.
  
  

• (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp will likely lower its purchase price for Countrywide Financial Corp , at least two analysts said, with Friedman, Billings Ramsey saying the bank may cut its price to the $0 to $2 level or even walk away from the deal.
  

• The USDA said as of May 4th corn is 27% planted. (5-year average is 59%)

Metals Surge as Rationing Cuts Power at Biggest Mines (Update1)
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing from South Africa to China mean the price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest mines.

Zinc Price May Jump More Than 50% in Five Years, Macquarie Says
Rapid supply growth in the near term notwithstanding, ``lower zinc prices and difficulty in securing financing are likely to limit zinc mine production growth in the longer-term, from 2010 onwards,'' Macquarie said. There could be a shortage of refined zinc by 2011 ``which could become extremely large by 2012,'' it said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.3% in March
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index out at 48.6.
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 1.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
  

• YoY Ford’s vehicle sales fell 12% and sales for GM fell 16%
  

• (WSJ) Commercial banks continued this week to tap extensively the Fed's discount window but reduced their borrowings slightly from last week, a sign that credit strains may be improving somewhat.

Quick Overview

• The Fed reduced the federal funds rate to 2.00%,
  

• U.S. GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.7% QoQ and 3.3% YoY.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 48.2 to 48.3
  

• Canada’s GDP was down 0.2% MoM and up 1.5% YoY.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.3% YoY.
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 3.9% to 3.8% in March.
  
  
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.8 million barrels to 319.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use dropped from 85.6% to 85.4%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.7% YoY
  
  

• Prudential Financial's first-quarter net income dropped 94% on large investment losses.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• According to the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index U.S. home prices fell 12.7% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from 108.4 to 107.6 in April.
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales rose 1.1% in March.
  

• The USDA said that:
  10% of the corn crop was planted – below the five-year average of 35%.
  2% of the soybean crop was planted.
  19% of the cotton crop was planted.
  34% of the spring wheat crop was planted.
  46% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, up from 45% last week.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 69.5 to 62.6 -- the lowest in 26 years.
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.4% QoQ
  

• Japan's CPI rose 1.2% YoY
  

• (Reuters) - A cargo ship hired by the U.S. military fired warning shots at approaching boats in the Gulf; the U.S. Navy said on Friday, underscoring tension in the region as the Pentagon sharpened its warnings to Iran.
  

• Bush said tax rebates that start going out Monday will help shore up the sluggish U.S. economy.
  

• (FT) The US and Europe could open their markets to more ethanol from Brazil, where the impact on agriculture is smaller.
  

• Texas filed an application to be exempted from the federal renewable fuels standard. The food industry prompted the state’s request to waive 50% of the state’s ethanol blending.
  

• Thailand and Brazil said they won't curb rice exports.
  

• YoY, Guangdong’s foreign trade volume grew 14.3% to US$149.9 billion, this compares to 24.6% China-wide.

Platinum Falls in N.Y. on Catalyst Replacement; Palladium Drops
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum fell in New York after Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. reported developing a silver-based diesel exhaust catalyst, replacing the more expensive metal. Palladium also declined.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Durable goods orders fell 0.3% in March. Excluding transport, orders rose 1.5% -- stronger than expected.
  
  

• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% YoY. New homes for sale rose from 10.2 to an 11-month supply.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims fell 33,000 to 342,000, fewer than expected.
  

• German business sentiment fell from 104.8 to 102.4.
  

• U.K. Retail sales fell 0.4%.
  

• Statistics Canada said, on April 1st, there were 13.0 million hogs on farms, down 11.7% YoY.
  

• Merrill Lynch said it has enough capital to keep its dividend.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Industrial new orders for the Euro zone rose 0.6% in February.
  Euro zone index of services rose from 51.6 to 51.8 in March.
  

• Australia's consumer price index rose 4.2%.
  

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.7% MoM.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.4% to 85.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club warehouse unit is restricting purchases of some types of rice to four bags a visit as prices reached a record in Chicago futures trading.
  

• Port of Shanghai's March container throughput rose 17.9% to a new monthly record of 2.39 million TEU, Logistics Week reported.

From Artificial Boom to Real Bust
But we are using this time in the jet stream to profit from a vacuum in the news stream. That is, cut off from our usual sources of misinformation, we have nourished our thinking with thought. And what we are thinking about is: what if we are wrong? (Since we are often wrong, time spent considering the alternatives is rarely wasted. Often, it ends as prophecy.)

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 2% MoM, and 19% YoY.
  
  

• The Richmond Fed's regional index of manufacturing fell from +6 to 0 in April.
  

• A member of the European Central Bank said “again” interest rates might need to be raised to fight inflationary pressures.
  
  

• Reuters reported that YoY oil demand in China jumped up 8%.
  
  

• Canada cut its interest rate from 3.50% to 3.00%.
  
  

• Queues at the Panama Canal are becoming longer. About 90 ships are waiting to get through the Canal, doubling transit times to a record 53 hours from the usual 27 to 30 hours.
  
  

• Corn traders are waking up to the fact that this year’s planting delays are getting serious.
  

Quick Overview

• The USDA said: 4% of the corn crop was planted, down from a five-year average of 17%.
  

• The USDA said there were 657 million pounds of frozen pork in storage on March 31st, up 33% YoY
  

• The USDA said that frozen bellies totaled 99 million pounds, up 79% YoY.
  

• The USDA said, as of March 31st, there were 1.05 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in storage, up 28% YoY.
  

• Canada's farmers intend to plant 25.109 million acres of wheat, up 16% YoY. YoY corn planting intentions are down 13%. Soybean acres are expected up 2% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) "I think the most important thing for the Fed to do is not just use moral suasion, but a baseball bat with respect to the banking system," Paul McCulley, managing director at bond fund manager PIMCO, told a conference in response to a question from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn.
  
  

• Japan's consumer sentiment index improved from 36.1 to 36.7 in March.
  
  

• The USDA said as of April 1st, there were 11.684 million head of cattle on feed, up 0.3% YoY.
  
  

• The Chocolate Manufacturers Association said the U.S. cocoa grind totaled 91,876 tons in the first quarter, down 5.6% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators rose 0.1%.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing fell from -17.4 to -24.9.
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.4%
  

• Google reports a 30% rise in quarterly profits.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in March and 4.0% YoY. Without food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in March and 2.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. housing starts fell 11.9% MoM and 36.5% YoY
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.6%YoY
  

• China's GDP rose 10.6% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.5 million barrels
  Supplies of and heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 83.0% to 81.4% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.9%.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 1.1% in March. Excluding food and energy costs, prices rose 0.2%
  

• The New York region of the Federal Reserve announced that manufacturing activity beat trade expectations in April.
  

• Consumer price s in the U.K. rose 2.5% YoY.
  

• Consumer prices in France rose 3.5% YoY.
  

• Cargill is building a million ton a year sugar refinery in Louisiana. The refinery is expected to start up in 2010.
  

• (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Richard Fuld joined a growing chorus of investment bank executives in saying on Tuesday that the worst of the credit crisis is behind Wall Street.

Monsanto’s Harvest of Fear
For centuries—millennia—farmers have saved seeds from season to season: they planted in the spring, harvested in the fall, then reclaimed and cleaned the seeds over the winter for re-planting the next spring. Monsanto has turned this ancient practice on its head.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in March, better than expected.
  

• U.K. producer prices rose 6.2%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area rose 0.3% MoM, and up 3.1% YoY.

• The USDA reports that just 2% of the nation’s corn crop is planted as of Sunday, down from the seasonal average of 7%.

Chile Thirsts for Rain as Goats Drop, Mines Face Power Cuts
Chile is in the grip of the most damaging drought in a century. The water shortage is reducing output at hydroelectric dams, pushing up energy prices and forcing the government to consider restricting power supplies to mines and factories. Subsistence farmers' crops and livestock are dying.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 69.5 to 63.2, the lowest since 1982.
  

• Results from industrial bellwether General Electric missed estimates, re-igniting concerns that corporate profits would not escape financial market turmoil.
  

• YoY Japan’s producer prices rose 3.9%.
  

• Greenspan says the U.S. economy is in recession, adding it would be appropriate to use public funds to reverse the effects of the nation's credit crisis.
  

• (WSJ) Bush and his wife paid $221,635 in federal taxes on income of $923,807 for 2007, a year that included an advance for a children's book. The Cheneys' taxes were $602,651 on $3.04 million in income.
  

• Lehman repackaged some of its unsold buyout loans into a new security that it used as collateral to obtain cash loans from the Fed. Other Wall Street investment banks, known for their “ingenuity”, are expected to follow suit.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind rose 4.7% YoY.
  
  

• Statistics says South Africa’s gold production fell 28% YoY
  
  
  
  

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac looking to help those who owe more than home's worth

The program by the largest U.S. financier and guarantor of home mortgages addresses homeowners with "upside-down" loans who owe more than their homes are worth. There are now an estimated 9 million U.S. homeowners in that predicament, according to Moody's Economy.com.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. The trade gap expanded unexpectedly to $62.32 billion in February
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said jobless claims fell 53,000 to 357,000, less than expected.
  

• The U.S. government posted a budget deficit of $311.4 billion for the first half of the 2007-2008 fiscal year -- largest ever.
  

• The unemployment rate in Australia rose from 4.0% to 4.1%.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 12.7% in February.
  

• Britain reduced its interest rate from 5.25% to 5.00%, as expected.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.0%.
  

Ed Seykota and The Whipsaw Song

Commodities Rise Most in 7 Weeks; Oil, Fuel, Corn Hit Records
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities jumped the most in two weeks as crude oil, gasoline and corn surged to records following U.S. government reports signaling demand for energy and grain still outpacing supplies.

Quick Overview

• (FT) The world's leading banks have accepted much of the blame for the credit crisis in an attempt to stave off calls for more regulation, even as the International Monetary Fund slashed global growth estimates and warned that the US would suffer a recession.
  
  

• GDP in the Euro area rose 2.6% in 2007.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.2 million barrels to 316.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 2.7 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 82.4% to 83.0% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose o.3% YoY
  Distillate demand was unchanged YoY.
  (Oil hits record above $112 after US inventories)
  
  

• The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of:
  Corn was reduced from 1.438 to 1.283 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 140 to 160 million bushels.
  Wheat is unchanged at 242 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.978 to 1.950 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 9.40 to 9.70 million bales.
  

• The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of:
  Corn was reduced from 104 to 103 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 47.4 to 49.3 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 110.4 to 112.5 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 59.2 to 59.6 million bales.
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of 2008 beef production from 26.4 to 26.6 billion pounds, up 0.6% YoY.
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of 2008 pork production from 23.1 to 23.5 billion pounds, up 7.3% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of Florida's 2007-2008 orange crop from 167 to 169 million boxes.
  
  
  

• Brazil estimated the upcoming coffee harvest at 44.2 million bags.

• Gold Fields Mineral said that 2008 gold production will remain stable, suggesting to some, that this will result in a tightening of supply.
  

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said the index of pending home sales fell from 86.2 to 84.6 in February.
  

• Home prices in the U.K. fell 2.5% in February.
  

• The USDA said that 45% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 64% last year.

Quick Overview

• Japan's index of leading indicators increased from 36.4% to 50% in February.

Iceland contagion may spread far and wide
Fitch said countries that run current account deficits above 10pc of GDP for any length time almost always come to grief. East Asia's debt crisis in 1997 erupted before any state reached double digits. Iceland's deficit is now 16pc of GDP. Latvia is at 25pc, Bulgaria 19pc, Georgia 18pc, Estonia 16pc, Lithuania 14pc, Romania 14pc and Serbia 13pc. The region will need $337bn in foreign loans this year.

Borrowing in foreign currencies was all the rage in the heady days of the credit bubble. Most mortgages in Hungary over the last two years have been in Swiss francs, with the Balkans and Poland not far behind. This is now turning into slow torture. The franc has risen 5pc against the euro since October. The real level of the debt is ratcheting up.

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.1% in March

• Canada’s unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.0% in March
  Canada’s consumer confidence fell from 96.5 to 94.5
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 0.1% in February.

• The Philippine government proposed a law that makes the hoarding of rice a crime punishable by life imprisonment.