The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
The bears at Société Générale are going into Siberian hibernation, issuing an "Ice Age" alert. They have slashed exposure to global equities to a minimum 30pc for the first time ever.

Their weighting of super-safe "AAA" government bonds has been raised to a maximum 50pc. This is a bet on gruelling "Japanese" deflation. The bank expects equities to fall by 50pc to 75pc.

"Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios," said Albert Edward, SG's global strategist.

Home truths
It is not hard to see why politicians are so keen to help. For all the hope that the worst may be over in financial markets, the housing mess is getting nastier. Nationally, house prices have fallen between 3% and 13% depending on which index you look at. And they have further to sink. The stock of unsold homes is huge and the ratio of prices to rents suggests that property is still expensive (see article). Some 1.5m households went into foreclosure in 2007, up 50% from the year before. And with 9m people owing more than their house is worth, that figure is likely to soar.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 5.7% to $58.21 billion in March, more than expected.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1% in April
  
  
  

• USDA estimates for the 2008-2009 season ending stocks:
  Corn is 763 million bushels, down from 1.383 billion bushels in 2007-2008.
  Soybeans are 185 million bushels, up from 145 million bushels in 2007-2008.
  Wheat is 483 million bushels, up from 239 million bushels in 2007-2008.
  Sugar is 1.336 million tons, down from 1.757 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Cotton is 5.60 million bales, down from 9.90 million bales in 2007-2008.
  
  

• USDA 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn is 99 million tons, down from 110 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Wheat is 124 million tons, up from 110 million tons in 2007-2008.
  Cotton is 56 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2007-2008.
  
  
  

Greenspan says worst of credit crisis over: sources
Greenspan also said house prices still had a long way to fall and that it was unlikely they would stabilize by year-end,

Quick Overview

• U.S. Wholesale inventories fell 0.1%.


• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0%.


• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.0%.


• Canada’s housing starts fell 12% MoM.


• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in April.
  


• In a bid to rein in soaring prices, India has extended its futures trading ban to four more food commodities.
  


• Ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture's next production and stocks update, Allendale Inc. is projecting an increase in soybean stocks, a decrease for corn and the biggest U.S. wheat crop since 2003.


• Wal-Mart Stores reported a 3.2% climb in U.S. same-store sales.

Baltic Dry Index Exceeds 10,000 for First Time Since December
``The market is very, very close to equilibrium in terms of demand and supply,'' said Alex Gray, London-based chief executive officer of Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world's biggest shipbroker. ``What we are seeing at the moment is a building up of pressure around iron-ore shipments and grains.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter.
  

• U.S. unit labor costs rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter.
  

• U.S. pending home sales index fell 1.0% in March and down 20.1% YoY.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.4% in March.
  

• U.K.'s factory output fell 0.5% in March.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 5.7 million barrels last week to 325.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 100,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.4% to 85.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.5% YoY.
  
  

• Statistics Canada said:
  Wheat stocks were down 32% YoY.
  Canola stocks were down 22% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• An index of services in the U.K. fell from 52.1 to 50.4 in April, weaker than expected.
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%.

• (WSJ)..it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200 (Update4)
``The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty,'' the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 49.6 to 52.0.
  

• (WSJ) Casino operator Tropicana Entertainment is expected to file for bankruptcy protection. It would be the largest corporate bankruptcy of the year, and the latest blow to Las Vegas, which has seen gambling revenues decline and major building projects canceled or delayed.
  
  

• (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp will likely lower its purchase price for Countrywide Financial Corp , at least two analysts said, with Friedman, Billings Ramsey saying the bank may cut its price to the $0 to $2 level or even walk away from the deal.
  

• The USDA said as of May 4th corn is 27% planted. (5-year average is 59%)

Metals Surge as Rationing Cuts Power at Biggest Mines (Update1)
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing from South Africa to China mean the price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest mines.

Zinc Price May Jump More Than 50% in Five Years, Macquarie Says
Rapid supply growth in the near term notwithstanding, ``lower zinc prices and difficulty in securing financing are likely to limit zinc mine production growth in the longer-term, from 2010 onwards,'' Macquarie said. There could be a shortage of refined zinc by 2011 ``which could become extremely large by 2012,'' it said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.3% in March
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index out at 48.6.
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 1.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
  

• YoY Ford’s vehicle sales fell 12% and sales for GM fell 16%
  

• (WSJ) Commercial banks continued this week to tap extensively the Fed's discount window but reduced their borrowings slightly from last week, a sign that credit strains may be improving somewhat.

Quick Overview

• The Fed reduced the federal funds rate to 2.00%,
  

• U.S. GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.7% QoQ and 3.3% YoY.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 48.2 to 48.3
  

• Canada’s GDP was down 0.2% MoM and up 1.5% YoY.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.3% YoY.
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 3.9% to 3.8% in March.
  
  
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.8 million barrels to 319.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use dropped from 85.6% to 85.4%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.7% YoY
  
  

• Prudential Financial's first-quarter net income dropped 94% on large investment losses.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• According to the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index U.S. home prices fell 12.7% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from 108.4 to 107.6 in April.
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales rose 1.1% in March.
  

• The USDA said that:
  10% of the corn crop was planted – below the five-year average of 35%.
  2% of the soybean crop was planted.
  19% of the cotton crop was planted.
  34% of the spring wheat crop was planted.
  46% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, up from 45% last week.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 69.5 to 62.6 -- the lowest in 26 years.
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.4% QoQ
  

• Japan's CPI rose 1.2% YoY
  

• (Reuters) - A cargo ship hired by the U.S. military fired warning shots at approaching boats in the Gulf; the U.S. Navy said on Friday, underscoring tension in the region as the Pentagon sharpened its warnings to Iran.
  

• Bush said tax rebates that start going out Monday will help shore up the sluggish U.S. economy.
  

• (FT) The US and Europe could open their markets to more ethanol from Brazil, where the impact on agriculture is smaller.
  

• Texas filed an application to be exempted from the federal renewable fuels standard. The food industry prompted the state’s request to waive 50% of the state’s ethanol blending.
  

• Thailand and Brazil said they won't curb rice exports.
  

• YoY, Guangdong’s foreign trade volume grew 14.3% to US$149.9 billion, this compares to 24.6% China-wide.

Platinum Falls in N.Y. on Catalyst Replacement; Palladium Drops
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum fell in New York after Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. reported developing a silver-based diesel exhaust catalyst, replacing the more expensive metal. Palladium also declined.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Durable goods orders fell 0.3% in March. Excluding transport, orders rose 1.5% -- stronger than expected.
  
  

• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% YoY. New homes for sale rose from 10.2 to an 11-month supply.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims fell 33,000 to 342,000, fewer than expected.
  

• German business sentiment fell from 104.8 to 102.4.
  

• U.K. Retail sales fell 0.4%.
  

• Statistics Canada said, on April 1st, there were 13.0 million hogs on farms, down 11.7% YoY.
  

• Merrill Lynch said it has enough capital to keep its dividend.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Industrial new orders for the Euro zone rose 0.6% in February.
  Euro zone index of services rose from 51.6 to 51.8 in March.
  

• Australia's consumer price index rose 4.2%.
  

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.7% MoM.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.4% to 85.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club warehouse unit is restricting purchases of some types of rice to four bags a visit as prices reached a record in Chicago futures trading.
  

• Port of Shanghai's March container throughput rose 17.9% to a new monthly record of 2.39 million TEU, Logistics Week reported.