Quick Overview

• The yield curve has been a good predictor of recessions in the United States over many years and probably still is, according to a report issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  

• Major trade powers are edging closer on farm market reforms, but ministers said Wednesday that plenty of work remains if WTO members are to reach a wide-ranging agreement by the end of the year.
  

• It all depends how cold it gets, but the DOE prognosticates that homes heated primarily by natural gas will have to spend about 48% more to keep warm this winter. Homes heating with heating oil will spend 32% more.
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week last week as interest rates on 30-year home loans climbed to the highest levels since late March, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.
  
  

• Today’s Soybean futures were propelled higher by a smaller-than-expected production forecast from the USDA. The government estimates soybean production at 2.967 billion bushels, higher than the 2.856 billion USDA estimated from September, but lower than the average analyst estimate of 3.006 billion bushels. November soybeans jumped 25 1/2 cents to $5.89.
  
  

• The USDA pegged corn production at 10.857 billion bushels, in line with the average analysts' estimate of 10.862 billion but above the 10.639 billion estimated in September. Ending stocks were projected at 2.220 billion bushels, a 141 million bushel increase from the previous USDA report.
  The USDA projected the 2005-06 corn yield at 146.1 bushels an acre, up from the 143.2 bushels estimated in the prior report.
  
  
  

• Today’s USDA production estimates are:
  Corn was increased from 10.639 to 10.857 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were increased from 2.856 to 2.967 billion bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 2.167 to 2.098 billion bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 7.964 to 7.874 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 22.28 to 22.72 million bales.
  
  

• USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates are:
  Corn was increased from 2.079 to 2.220 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were increased from 205 to 260 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 624 to 530 million bushels.
  Cotton was reduced from 7.00 to 6.40 million bales.
  Sugar was increased from 1.014 to 1.089 million tons.
  
  

• The USDA's estimate of the 2005-2006 Florida orange crop is 190 million boxes, lower than expected. The juice yield is at 1.58 gallons a box - 42.0 degrees Brix. Last year Florida produced 150 million boxes of oranges with a yield of 1.58 gallons a box.
  

• The DOE reduced its forecast of 2005 oil demand from 84.2 to 83.7 million barrels a day and upped its estimate of OPEC's oil production in September from 30.1 to 30.4 million barrels a day . The DOE also said that they expect significant recovery of the gulf coast infrastructure by the end of this year
  
  

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate for June to August was steady at 4.7% -- the lowest in thirty years.
  

• Some clients of Refco Inc. are moving business to other firms after the company this week suspended two top executives because of a hidden $430 million debt that it failed to properly account for, market sources said on Wednesday.
  

• Mexico's industrial production probably rose 2.2 percent in August, less than the pace of the nation's economic expansion and evidence that manufacturing is losing its role as the country's main driver of growth – Bloomberg reports.
  

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reduced its forecast of 2005 GDP growth for the U.K. from 2.4% to 1.7%.