Bloomberg: October promises not only rising coronavirus infection rates, but a new tsunami of job losses all over the globe. Airlines are preparing to lay off tens of thousands of workers starting Thursday unless they get additional federal aid. Walt Disney said it would slash 28,000 workers from its slumping resort business. Royal Dutch Shell is to cut as many as 9,000 employees while German auto-parts supplier Continental AG may layoff or move 30,000 jobs. In America, talks between Congressional Democrats and the White House on a second bailout that could help preserve airline jobs have resumed, but Wall Street didn’t seem all that optimistic about the prospects for a deal. —David E. Rovella
Wednesday, September 30, 2020
- We found it all: Goldcorp's former chairman, Ian Telfer, the once head of a huge multinational miner says “we've found all the gold. There is no more. "Are we not looking for it? Are we bad at finding it? Or have we found it all?"” My answer is we found it all. I don't think there are any more mines out there, or nothing significant. And the exploration records indicate that."
- Assuming that the guy knows what he is talking about - this would be historic! On the other hand, this could be like the Peak Oil prognostications of the 1980s. So perhaps all gold miners must do is, copy oil drillers, and drill sideways. (joke) Or perhaps he is just talking his book.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, after declining in August. The Index now stands at 101.8 (1985=100), up from 86.3 in August.
- As usual they didn’t ask me, but what are these people drinking or smoking?
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Monday, September 28, 2020
- A New York Times report shows that President Trump used tax strategies that are unavailable to most Americans. Households in the middle 20 percent paid an average of about three times what Trump reportedly paid in 2016 and 2017.
- Working through Facebook,(AKA the plague on humanity) the Trump campaign in 2016 set out to deter 3.5 million BlackAmericans from voting.
- Four individuals, including the partner of one of the victims of the deadly Kenosha, Wisconsin, shootings, have filed a lawsuit against Facebook, the suspected gunman Kyle Rittenhouse and two leaders of online groups.
- LONDON The number of British entrepreneurs looking to "buy" citizenship from countries offering visa-free access to the European Union has risen sharply, investment migration firms say, as prospects of a post-Brexit trade deal between Britain and the bloc darken.
- FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Pension funds for truckers, teachers and subway workers have lodged lawsuits in the United States against Germany’s Allianz,(ALIZF) one of the world’s top asset managers, for failing to safeguard their investments during the coronavirus market meltdown.
- Welt am Sonntag: Siemens Energy mulls plan for exiting coal activities - (and another Co. is wising up)
- (DB) Italy’s 30y yields have hit fresh low this week at 1.75% despite rising debt. Italy debt/GDP is on course to 160% when the new draft budget is presented early next week up from 135% at the end of 2019.
- An Italian cardinal whose former office has been embroiled in a financial scandal resigned suddenly Thursday from his Vatican post and renounced his rights as a cardinal, a surprise escalation of an affair that has overshadowed that Holy See for the last year.
- Reuters: China’s recovery has been gaining momentum as pent-up demand, government stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports propel a rebound. Industrial firm profits grew 19.1% year-on-year in August to 612.81 billion yuan ($89.8 billion), the statistics bureau said. That compares with a 19.6% increase in July and is the fourth straight month of profit growth.
- (WP) And then there’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Over the years, the Israeli leader has developed a reputation among the staff at the U.S. president’s guesthouse for bringing special cargo on his trips to Washington: bags and suitcases full of dirty laundry, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The clothes are cleaned for the prime minister free of charge by the U.S. staff, a perk that is available to all foreign leaders but sparingly taken advantage of given the short stays of busy heads of state.
Sunday, September 27, 2020
Bloomberg: Jeffrey Gundlach The DoubleLine Capital chief executive officer tweeted an invitation for real estate agents in “low tax, well governed” U.S. states to call him, as he openly pondered leaving his Los Angeles base.
(Great, more room for us! One could get a little annoyed with these self-centered, greedy, never ever enough people that are sponging off 100’s of years of innovation and infrastructure, invented and built by others before them. And then complain about a max marginal tax rate of 12.3%)
Saturday, September 26, 2020
- Biden Plan Will Create 7 Million More Jobs Than Trump
- Moody’s Analytics, an economic-research firm, has published an economic forecast weighing the effects of Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s proposals. It finds Biden’s plan would produce dramatically faster job growth and higher wages for most workers.
Friday, September 25, 2020
Thursday, September 24, 2020
- New home sales rose 4.8% to a 1.011-million unit pace. This marks the first time since November 2006 that the pace of new home sales topped 1-million units and is the strongest pace since September 2006. Moreover, sales were revised sharply higher for the prior month and have averaged a 939,000- unit pace over the past three months.”
- Fed's Bullard: Inflation could rise to 2% as soon as next year. He also prognosticated that the “U.S. economy within reach of full recovery this year”.
- Fed's Kaplan forecasts Q3 GDP to expand 30% annualized and for the unemployment rate to end the year at 7.5%.
- Recent speculation has it that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the eager abandon that had been expected. This wouldn’t be good news for the U.S. economy, as it would raise rates, and make gold and risk assets - less popular..
- Can a fiscal stimulus be thrashed out relatively soon? Nope - doesn’t look like it.
- Vaccine optimism is slowly fading too. Even if we get a positive vaccine approved over the next couple of months, the forecasts from Good Judgement Inc. has declined from 70% to 52% that 25-million people will be inoculated before the winter wave is over.
- (Reuters) - The World Bank’s private-sector arm has introduced new climate change conditions for its investments in commercial banks to encourage the lenders to wind down support for coal projects in Africa and Asia. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), which owns equity stakes in many large commercial banks in emerging markets, hopes the restrictions will trigger other investors to exit the coal sector.
- CME Group CME and Nasdaq NDAQ announced a plan to launch the Nasdaq Veles California WaterIndex futures contract, which will have a settlement price based on its namesake index, late in the fourth quarter of this year, pending a regulatory review.
- The contract will allow investors to hedge price risks in the spot water market and better manage price swings, says Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity products and alternative investments.
- The Bank of Mexico, unanimously agreed to trim the benchmark rate by 0.25 basis points to 4.25%, for what was its 11th consecutive cut since August 2019.
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
- Bloomberg: Less than an hour after U.S. President Donald Trump took to the virtual floor of the United Nations General Assembly and slammed China for its environmental record, China’s President Xi Jinping stunned the climate community by pledging that it would become carbon neutral by 2060. The two nearly back-to-back speeches provided a marked and powerful contrast. There are still many questions to be answered about the Chinese plan — most importantly how the country will define carbon neutrality. But the bare fact that China, by far the world's biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, has set out a net-zero pledge ahead of the U.S. shows how hard Beijing is striving to put itself at the center of global politics and the economic shift to clean energy — something Washington has been unwilling to do.
- The City Council of Ann Arbor, Michigan voted unanimously to decriminalize all psychedelic plants and fungi on Monday night. It’s an expansive move that will allow banned substances including ayahuasca, peyote, mescaline, and psilocybin, better known as “magic mushrooms,” in the area — and one that, like the decriminalization of cannabis in a growing number of areas, could potentially spark a showdown with federal authorities.
- AT&T and Microsoft are teaming up to enable enterprises to connectivity across the globe. As part of the effort, AT&T is working with Microsoft to deliver an integrated IoT solution with Azure Sphere. This AT&T powered guardian device with Azure Sphere will help businesses transform their operations quickly through massive IoT deployments at scale.
- The guardian device is easy to install and provides an end-to-end solution for connecting machines and equipment to the cloud, bypassing the need for public Internet.
- If you like dividends, ATT has a dividend yield of 7.3% as of today.. However the stock has not done much over the last 20 years. But then, seamlessly connect machines and equipment to the cloud with highly secure network.. well perhaps? And who knows, perchance they'll even manage to get HBO Max onto Roku.
- Regarding the other half, Microsoft, they seem to know what they are doing (most
of the time.)
- MSFT on the above Log scale looks a bit more realistic.
- The U.S. government’s debt will increase over the next 30 years to double the size of the economy, raising the risk of a fiscal crisis or a drop in the value of Treasuries, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday. The nonpartisan agency, in its long-term budget outlook, projected debt will reach 195% of gross domestic product in 2050. Currently US debt to GDP is 114%.
- Meanwhile, it’s getting more unlikely that Congress will pass a second bailout.
- And US covid deaths are at 204,801
- Bloomberg: A whistle-blower at Boeing is urging aviation regulators to add additional protections to the grounded 737 Max, warning that a proposal to mandate fixes to the defective jet doesn’t address multiple hazards identified in the two Boeing Max disasters that killed 346 people.
- Airbus has announced plans for the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft models that run on hydrogen and could take to the skies by 2035.
- Just 5 years ago GE doubled down on coal when it acquired Alstom’s coal fueled turbine business. Well, GE has slowly begun to see the future and announced that it is exiting the coal power market.
- Norway’s government has put is support behind a carbon capture and storage (CCS) project with Nkr17.1 billion ($1.8 billion) in backing to secure the world’s first full-scale CCS value chain.
- In August Musk suggested on Twitter that Tesla may be able to mass produce batteries with 50% more energy density in three to four years, which could even enable electric airplanes.
Sunday, September 20, 2020
Saturday, September 19, 2020
- U.S. Consumer sentiment ticked up a bit.
- Reuters: The Commerce Department said on Friday the currentaccount deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, jumped 52.9% to $170.5 billion last quarter. That was the biggest gap since the third quarter of 2008 when the economy was working its way through the Great Recession.
- The Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero for as long as it takes to get inflation back above 2%. The Fed seems to think that’ll be 2023 at the earliest.
- Brazil buys Argentine soybean oil as tightness persists
- Reuters: Trump announced a new round of pandemic assistance to farmers of about $13 billion at a campaign rally in Wisconsin on Thursday night, delivering aid to an important sector in a crucial battleground state. (Not much money in beans I suppose - see above)
- The White House on Friday announced a $13 billion aid package for Puerto Rico, three years after the territory was hit by Hurricane Maria.
- Copper moving right along, on hopes that China's stimulus would spur demand.
- Reuters: Investment between the US and China tumbled to a nine-year low in the first half of 2020, hit by bilateral tensions that could see more Chinese companies come under pressure to divest U.S. operations, a research report said.
- Bloomberg: China’s trade surplus with the U.S. has grown almost 25% since the start of the Trump presidency, exceeding $300 billion on an annualized basis.
- How quickly, realistically, can a vaccine be produced and distributed in enough quantity to vaccinate 25 million Americans? The “super forecasters” of Philip Tetlock’s Good Judgment project see the probabilities like this.
- Economist: The director of the FBI warned that Russia is actively interfering in America’s presidential election, with the Democratic party’s nominee as its primary target. Russian agents are producing what Christopher Wray called a “steady drumbeat of misinformation” intended to undermine Joe Biden and voters’ confidence in the results. President Donald Trump has continuously downplayed Russian interference.
- A German laboratory detected traces of Novichok on a water bottle apparently retrieved from the Siberian hotel room in which Alexei Navalny stayed before falling ill on a plane.
- Citigroup placed a senior member of IT staff on leave after revelations that he was running a website dedicated to QAnon. This conspiracy theory holds that President Donald Trump is battling a powerful paedophile ring enmeshed in American high politics. Jason Gelinas was disciplined for running an undisclosed side business; he is thought to have earned around $3,000 a month. AND QAnon conspiracy theory gaining ground in UK, per Guardian.
- The Guardian tracked five slogans associated with QAnon shared by UK-run Facebook..(AKA the plague on humanity)
- COVID Plans, Game Theory, and the Problem of A**holes
- In other words, the physicists made the same mistake as many attempts to model human behavior: they didn’t account for assholes.
- New Zealand 5
- South Korea 7
- Japan 12
- Austria 85
- Germany 113
- US 613 ( 203,000 Total - so far)
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
- In August, a study showed that Greenland lost a record amount of ice during an extra-warm 2019, with the melt massive enough to cover California in more than 4 feet of water.
- WTO finds Washington broke trade rules by imposing tariffs on China. WTO future is in danger just when we need it most
- Shipping orders of corn and soybean out of the US
Two of BP’s latest scenarios predict that crude demand will fall by half or more over the next 30 years.
- (I am prognosticating crude demand to fall by 80% and more over the next 30 years)
- Oregon GOP state senator Fred Girod was one of 11 Republicans who made headlines when they walked out of the senate – some even leaving the state – so that a quorum could not be achieved for a climate change bill. Now the wildfires have claimed his home
- WSJ: says the FTC is prepping a possible antitrust suit against Facebook
- Japans exports fell 14.8% YoY in August
- Bloomberg: Out west of Sydney it gets hot. Really hot. Like 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) hot. Stand in a car park and the radiant heat from the tarmac can push the mercury to 80C—approaching the temperature of a slow cooker.
- It’s these new suburbs that the government is banking on to accommodate almost half of the 1.8 million people ..
- The chart showing German exports to China would indicate a German need to be agreeable with China.
Sunday, September 13, 2020
The 7-day average of US Corona Virus Death is looking a bit better. Hopefully, it can take out the lower yellow line.
Saturday, September 12, 2020
Quick Overview is up to date
- Odds of a second bailout for the U.S. economy fell due to a split over a lean deal proposed by Republicans, estimated at $500 billion. This is just a fraction of the $2.2 trillion deal supported by Democrats.
- The U.S. budget deficit climbed by $200 billion and tops $3 trillion for the first time ever..
- The public debt ratio of industrialized countries is about to set a new record.
- Biden proposed a plan that calls for a 10% tax penalty on U.S. companies that move operations overseas and a 10% tax credit for companies that create jobs in America.
- In August, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in August (SA); up 1.7 percent over the year (NSA).
- Notable # in the CPI:
- Americans claiming ongoing unemployment assistance rose 93,000, to 13.4 million in the week ended Aug. 29.
- People are accusing Woodward of valuing book sales over public health. Nearly 200,000 Americans have died because neither Donald Trump nor Bob Woodward wanted to risk anything to keep the country informed,” wrote Esquire’s Charles P. Pierce.
- Microsoft found that groups from Russia, China and Iran have stepped up cyber-attacks to disrupt the U.S. presidential election.
- US GDP to rise 35% in Q3 so says Goldman Sachs
- JPMorgan published a note warning that based on recent surveys, iPhone sales are "moderating substantially" ahead of the iPhone 12 launch,
- The number of homeowners in forbearance is falling, but
Johnson said on Saturday that a planned bill, which would breach a divorce treaty with the bloc, was needed to protect Britain’s integrity. However a no-deal Brexit would hurt the British economy a lot more than the European Union, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz responded. “Europe would be able to deal with it and there would be no particularly serious consequences after the preparations we have already made,” he added.
- South Korea Money Supply Growth came in at 8.5%, above expectations (8.4%) in July
- World corn stocks fall to 306.79 mmt, down from 317.46 mmt last month and below trade at 311.11 MMT
- World soybean stocks fall to 93.59 mmt, down from 95.36 mmt last month, but just above trade at 93.11 MM