Friday, November 30, 2007

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures up 165 percent in Florida
Nationwide, there were more than 224,000 properties in foreclosure, or one for every 555 households. Filings were up 94 percent from October of last year and up 2 percent from September.
Though the filings continue to increase, RealtyTrac said there is some evidence that conditions are improving.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.2% in October.
    Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in October and 1.9% YoY.

  • The Federal Reserve would not hesitate to act to prevent financial strains from damaging the economy and any steps it does take are not made to shield investors, a top Fed official said on Friday.

  • U.S. Construction spending fell 0.8% MoM and 0.6% YoY.

  • The Chicago purchasing managers index rose from 49.7 to 52.9, stronger than expected

  • Moody's downgraded or put on review debt totaling $119 billion that was issued by SIVs, including some tied to Citigroup.

  • Congress may legislate a boost in fuel-economy standards to 35 miles a gallon by 2020.

  • GDP in Canada rose 0.7% in the third quarter and 2.9% YoY.

  • Japans consumer prices rose 0.3%
    Japans unemployment rate unchanged at 4% in October and
    Japans household spending rose 0.6% in October.
    Japans housing starts fell 35% YoY

  • GDP in the euro zone rose 2.7% YoY

  • The International Cocoa Organization estimates the 2006-2007 estimate of world cocoa ending stocks at 1.6 million tons or 44% of annual use.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Quick Overview

  • The Fed’s Bernanke said, in prepared comments that financial-market turmoil may put additional strain on the U.S. economy, signaling he is open to cuts in interest rates.

  • QoQ U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.9%, the best quarterly performance in four years. YoY GDP rose 2.8%,

  • The U.S. GDP price deflator rose 0.9% in the third quarter.

  • The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 1.7% from September's pace. YoY new home sales are down 24%.

  • The Federal Reserve will act to protect the wider economy from financial turmoil but not to shelter individual investors from losses.

  • Industrial production in Japan rose 1.6% -- a new record high.

  • Housing prices in the U.K. fell 0.8% in November,

  • The U.S. Energy Department said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 12 billion cubic feet last week to 3.528 trillion cubic feet.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Deadbeat Developers Signaled by Property Derivatives (Update2) The cost of derivatives protecting investors from defaults on the highest-rated bonds backed by properties more than doubled in the past month, according to Markit Group Ltd. Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Quick Overview

  • The Dow-Jones industrial average had its biggest two-day rally in five years after a Federal Reserve official hinted that the central bank may lower interest rates again.

  • The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 1.2% in October and 20.7% YoY. The median home price fell 5.1% YoY.

  • U.S. Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October. Excluding transport, orders fell 0.7%.

  • The Federal Reserve's Beige book said that reports on retail spending were lackluster and real estate remained depressed.

  • Japan retail sales rose 0.8% YoY.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 313.2 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 1.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.3 million barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 87.0 to 89.4%.
    Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
    Distillate demand rose 3.7%.

  • Argentina closed down wheat exports for five days to protect domestic supplies.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Foreclosures will hurt metro economies, mayors warn
The deepening housing crisis will cut economic growth by more than 25 percent in 143 U.S. metropolitan areas next year and by more than a third in 65 metro communities, according to a new forecast for the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The new report prepared for the mayors by financial forecaster Global Insight warns of cascading problems caused by falling home prices, an expected 1.4 million foreclosures and the pending reset of millions of adjustable-rate mortgages.

Quick Overview

  • The Dow industrials rose 215 on Citigroup's cash infusion from Abu Dhabi, and a more than $3 break in oil. Middle Eastern and Asian investment funds have invested an estimated $37bn in shares of western financial companies so far this year.

  • U.S. Home prices fell 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier

  • The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 95.2 to 87.3, the lowest score since Hurricane Katrina.

  • Business confidence in Germany rose from 103.9 to 104.2 in November, stronger than expected

  • YoY GDP in South Africa rose 4.7%

  • Rumors have it that OPEC may increase daily production by 500,000 barrels when they meet on December 5th.

  • The USDA expects Colombia's coffee production to increase from 12.2 to 12.4 million bags in 2007-2008.

  • China's National Grain and Oil Trade Center sees a 2007 grain and oilseed supply shortfall of 26 million tons.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Quick Overview

Saturday, November 24, 2007

U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Bond Market to Bernanke: Recession Threat Means More Rate Cuts
Financial companies may lose as much as $400 billion because of home foreclosures, based on a ``back-of-the-envelope'' calculation, Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, wrote in a report last week. That will force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, he estimated.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Quick Overview

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 28.75 to 27.37 in November -- stronger than expected.

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing rose from 6.8 to 8.2 in November -- stronger than expected.

  • Canada’s existing home sales rose 1.3% from September's pace.

  • U.K.'s retail sales fell 0.1% in October, but rose 4.4% YoY.

  • Consumer prices in the Euro zone rose 2.6% in October

  • Japan's tertiary index of services fell 1.6% in September.

  • YoY Industrial production in China rose 17.9%.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels to 314.7 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 700,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 86.2% to 87.7% last week.
    gasoline demand rose 0.6% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 0.5% YoY.
    Supplies of natural gas are up 2.5% YoY and up 8% from the five-year average.

  • The World Gold Council said that YoY gold demand rose 19% in the third quarter.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in October.

  • Retail sales in China were rose 18.1% YoY

  • GDP in the Euro area rose 2.6%.

  • The U.K.'s unemployment rate was 5.4%, unchanged QoQ.

  • Canada's index of leading indicators rose 0.1%.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Quick Overview

  • A data service for MasterCard Worldwide, said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in October.

  • The International Energy Agency expects world oil demand at 87.7 million barrels per day in 2008, down 300,000 barrels from an earlier estimate.

  • Japan's GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.1% YoY.

  • Japan kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.

  • YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 2.1%.

  • YoY Consumer prices in China rose 6.5%.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Quick Overview

  • YoY Japan producer price index rose 2.4%

  • Analysts at the Deutsche Bank predict losses worldwide from subprime mortgages will eventually total $300 to $400 billion.

  • India's industrial growth slowed to 6.4 percent in September.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

What Mukasey Can Teach Musharraf Why, in a country of 300 million, home to a lopsided number of lawyers, we cannot find someone who will uphold the Constitution unequivocally, is one more mystery of our times.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

How to Turn a Region Into a Graveyard..we have witnessed the emergence of a new Middle East that bears no resemblance to anything that US politicians might have envisaged, and which has become a major and lasting destabilising factor in the world.

Rage of Reason
The only time the polling firm has measured such strong give-this-guy-the-hook sentiment was in February 1974, at the height of the Watergate scandal, when Nixon's "strongly disapprove" number was measured at 48 percent. Bush beats him by a nose, but the margin of error makes the contest for "Most Reviled President, Modern Era" a statistical tie.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Trade shortfall of $56.5 billion was less than expected.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 80.9 to 75.0 in November, the lowest in two years.

  • China raised bank reserves to 11.5%. This is the ninth time this year the bank tries to cool an economy that expanded 11.5 % in the third quarter.

  • Europe's central banks sold 50 tons of gold in October.

  • Japan's industrial output rose 2.2%

  • The European Commission reduced its estimate of GDP growth for the Euro area from 2.5% to 2.2% in 2008, they expect 2.1% growth in 2009.

  • Canada’s trade surplus of C$2.6 billion is the lowest since December of 1998.

  • The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was reduced from 1.997 to 1.897 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were reduced from 215 to 210 million bushels.
    Wheat was increased from 307 to 312 million bushels.
    Sugar was reduced from 1.899 to 1.880 million tons.
    Cotton was increased from 6.40 to 7.60 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn remained at 110.4 million tons.
    Soybeans were reduced from 50.8 to 49.4 million tons.
    Wheat increased from 107 to 109.8 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 55.0 to 54.8 million bales.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Quick Overview

  • The Fed’s Bernanke told Congress the central bank is doing all it can to ease the impact of increasing foreclosures. He sees a "delicate balance" between risks to growth and the risks of inflation.

  • Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3% in October

  • Canada's housing starts were down 22% from September's pace.
  • The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.75%.
  • The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.00%.

  • Machinery orders in Japan fell 7.6% in September, weaker than expected.

  • The People's Bank of China estimats GDP will increase 11% this year with 4.5% inflation.

  • Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp. predicted a 59.4 million ton soybean crop in 2007-2008, the USDA estimated 62.0 million ton.

  • Louis Dreyfus is predicting that Brazil's next coffee crop will total 50 million (60-kg) bags.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas rose 36 billion cubic feet to 3.545 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 3% YoY.

  • Statistics South Africa said YoY gold production was down 6.5% in September.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Productivity increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, stronger than expected and the best gain in four years.

  • Vice chairman of the National People's Congress suggested that China should reposition their $1.4 trillion of foreign currency reserves into stronger currencies.

  • U.S. Wholesale sales rose 1.3% in September inventories rose 0.8%.

  • Federal Reserve officials on said more interest rate cuts could be needed if economic growth proves weaker than expected.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil were down 800,000 barrels last week to 311.9 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline were down 800,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were up 600,000 barrels.
    Refinery use was flat last week at a sluggish 86.2% of capacity.
    Gasoline demand rose 0.8%
    Distillate demand fell 2.4%.

  • Japans leading index fell 1.3% in September, due to Japan's poor housing starts. Eight of ten indicators rose.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Quick Overview

  • Japan's index of leading indicators hit 0% in September, a signal of slower conditions ahead.

  • Business activity in the Euro Area improved from 54.2 to 55.8 in October.

  • Retail sales in the Euro Area rose 0.3% in September.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted interest rates to an 11-year high of 6.75%.

  • Peruvian miners went on strike. Peru is the world's largest producer of silver, fifth largest gold producer, and third largest copper producer.

  • In Q4, the U.S. Department of Energy expects world oil consumption at 87.45 million barrels a day, and production at 85.88 million barrels a day.

Monday, November 05, 2007

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 54.8 to 55.8 in October, stronger than expected.

  • The Federal Reserve should be ready to reverse two interest rate cuts if the U.S. economy escapes major damage from recent market turmoil, but recovery is a way off for housing and subprime mortgage markets, Fed officials said.

  • Citigroup warned of another $8 to $11 billion in loan losses, reigniting fears about the health of financial firms and the broader U.S. economy. The CEO quit.

  • The Florida Department of Citrus said that at the end of October, there were 49.2 million gallons of frozen orange concentrate in inventory, this is down 17% YoY.

  • U.K. services fell from 56.7 to 53.1 in October, weaker than expected,

  • U.K’s Factory production fell 0.6%.

  • Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui yesterday underlined the need to raise interest rates in a timely manner, saying that keeping them too low in the light of economic conditions could pose risks in the future.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in October with a net increase of 166,000 jobs, much more than expected.

  • U.S. Factory orders rose 0.2% in September, better than expected. Excluding transport, orders rose 1.4%.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 5.9% to 5.8% in October, the lowest in 33 years

  • Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty played down the idea of cutting interest rates as a way of stemming the rise of the Canadian dollar.

  • Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 53.2 to 51.5 in October, the lowest in two years.

  • Informa estimates the U.S. corn crop at 13.193 billion bushels, down 125 million from the last USDA forecast.

  • Informa estimates the U.S. soybean crop at 2.628 billion bushels, up 30 million from the last USDA forecast.

  • The Census Bureau said soybean oil stocks were 2.91 billion pounds at the end of September compared with 3.05 billion in August.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Quick Overview

  • The Fed injected $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001.

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.4% in September, as expected

  • U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.3%, less than expected.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 52.0 to 50.9 in October, weaker than expected.

  • Australia's retail sales rose 0.8% in September.