Saturday, July 15, 2017


  • US and retail sales fell for a second straight month.

  • U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% after an unrevised 0.2% decrease in April.

  • Sales fell 0.2%, the biggest decline since July 2016, after being unchanged in April.

  • U.S. Consumer prices were unchanged in June.

  • Chances of a U.S. rate hike in December fell to 47% from 55%.

  • All this points to tame inflation and subdued expectations of strong economic growth in the second quarter.

  • CAD derived extra support after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate target by 25 bp to 0.75%.

  • Drill, baby, drill. Baker Hughes says the worldwide rig count for June was 2,041, up 106 from May and up 634 from June 2016

Sunday, July 09, 2017


  • U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose by 222,000 jobs last month, driven by hefty gains in healthcare, government, restaurants and professional and business services sectors, the Labor Department said on Friday. Beating economists' expectations for a 179,000 increase.

  • Department of Labor said that Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2%, from 0.1% in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 0.2%. Analysts had expected Average hourly earnings to rise to 0.3% last month.

  • German Industrial Production rose 1.2% vs. 0.3% forecast

  • MoM Canada's PMI rose to 61.6 from 53.8.

  • The Canadian unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, from 6.6% MoM.

  • MoM U.K. industrial production fell to -0.1%, from 0.2%. Analysts had expected U.K. industrial production to rise 0.4% last month.

  • After a record 17.55 million units sold in 2016, the U.S. auto industry has posted declining sales for the last four months, with high consumer discounts and inventory levels posing concerns.

  • Not much for the gold bulls to be excited about. Central banks are not so accommodating anymore and inflation - so far - isn't an issue.

  • The current Australian drought may be responsible for a YoY plunge in wheat production of more than 40% - smallest crop in a decade.

  • Minneapolis wheat, a specific focus of grain market attention since the drought began, is leading the way. Temperatures in the northern plains spring wheat belt have seen temps above 100 and more heat may be on the way.

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Our Dow Theory interpretation is back to bullish


  • China: At the end of 2007 private dept to GDP stood at 118% - at the end of 2016 it stood at 211%.

  • Trump announced duties on Canadian softwood of 7.7%.

  • The IMF lowered its outlook for the US economy from 2.3% growth rate to 2.1%.

  • The ISM said its index of national factory activity rose to a reading of 57.8 last month, its best performance since August 2014, from 54.9 in May.

  • Germany (Reuters) - Euro zone growth is stronger than expected and this will enable the European Central Bank to slowly normalize its monetary policy and end a "crazy situation" of negative interest rates, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.

  • German manufacturing growth rose to 59.6 from 59.5 in May to reach its highest level in 74 months.

  • (L.A. Times) The main ingredient of the pesticide Roundup will be added to a list of chemicals that California believes are linked to cancer, and products that contain the compound will have to carry a warning label by next year.

  • The city of Ahvaz in southwest Iran posted the country’s hottest temperature ever recorded Thursday afternoon “53.7°C” (128.7 degrees Fahrenheit), and may have tied the world record for the most extreme high temperature.

  • "My cost to produce sugar at Sao Martinho is something close to 13.5 cents a pound," and the group was a "very efficient" producer.

  • YoY Argentina’s tax revenues rose 29.8% percent in June.

  • Brazil posted a trade surplus of $7.195 billion last month, the second largest on record and the biggest ever for the month of June.

  • Chinas PMI rose to 50.4 in June,  above the 49.5 level forecast, and up from May's reading of 49.6, the first contraction in 11 months.