Sunday, December 20, 2009

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Scramble for the Atmosphere (Monbiot)
..the barrister Polly Higgins laid out a different approach. Her declaration of planetary rights invests ecosystems with similar legal safeguards to those won by humans after the second world war(2). It changes the legal relationship between humans, the atmosphere and the biosphere from ownership to stewardship. It creates a global framework for negotiation which gives nation states less discretion to dispose of ecosystems and the people who depend on them.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Japan kept interests rate unchanged at 0.1%.

  • Canada's wholesale sales rose 0.3% in October

  • Global cocoa production for 2009-10 is expected to fall 63,000 tons short of demand, which would be the fourth consecutive year of deficits and wider than a previous forecast of 56,000 tons, BNP Paribas said.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Quick Overview

  • US attempts to break the deadlock at the UN conference in Copenhagen by backing an offer from developed countries to provide poorer nations with $100bn per year by 2020 to fight climate change

  • Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.

  • U.K.'s retail sales fell 0.3% in November.

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 480,000.

  • As of last week 2009-2010 U.S. export inspections of:
    Corn are up 5% YoY.
    Soybeans are up 40% YoY.
    Wheat improved from down 31% to down 30% YoY.
    Cotton is down 37% YoY.

  • India's sugar production in the first two months of the marketing year that began Oct. 1 fell 9.6% YoY due to lower recovery from cane.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged and said that it expects economic conditions to warrant “exceptionally low” rates for an “extended” period.

  • The EU Wednesday settled its remaining antitrust issues with Microsoft.

  • The U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued Intel for illegally using its dominant market position for a decade “to stifle competition and strengthen its monopoly.”

  • MoM U.S. housing starts rose 8.9%. YoY November housing starts were down 7.3%.

  • Canada manufacturing sales rose 2.0% in October

  • EU consumer prices rose 1.0% YoY

  • Japan's tertiary index rose 0.5%

  • Norway raised its interest rate to 1.75%

  • U.K. Unemployment rose to 7.9% from 7.8%

  • Brazil harvested 39.5 million bags of coffee this year, up from a September estimate of 39.0 million bags

  • Brazil estimates 2009-2010 production of 34.6 million tons of sugar and 25.8 billion liters of ethanol from 612 million tons of cane.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 332.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 900,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 2.3 million barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 81.1% to 80.0%
    Gasoline demand rose 1.0% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 6.6% YoY

  • India's production of monsoon-sown rice may total 71.65 million metric tons, up from 69.45 million tons estimated last month, the farm ministry said.

  • Cocoa’s trading at the highest level in 32 years amid concerns that the market will experience a supply shortfall for a fourth successive season in 2009-10.

Regulators Resist Volcker Wandering Warning of Too-Big-to-Fail
(Bloomberg) -- Paul A. Volcker visited nine cities in five countries in the past eight weeks to warn that bankers and regulators “have not come anywhere close to responding with necessary vigor” to the worst economic crisis in 70 years.
.. He told executives there that the changes they’ve proposed are “like a dimple.”

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 2.6 from 23.5 in November

  • The Federal Reserve meets today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.125%.

  • (FT) China has banned individuals from registering internet domain names and launched a review of millions of existing personal websites in the toughest government censorship drive so far on the internet

  • Czarnikow in late November forecast a 2009/10 global sugar deficit of 13.5 million tonnes, versus a deficit of 15.8 million tonnes in 2008/09.
  • The China Sugar Association has estimated that sugar output for the 2009-10 crop year, starting Oct. 1, will fall to 12 million tons from the previous year's 12.43 million tons.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Quick Overview

  • White House advisor Lawrence Summers expects the economy to start adding new jobs in the spring of 2010.

  • Industrial production in the EU fell 0.7% in October and down 10.2% YoY

  • YoY Chinas M2 money supply rose 29.7%

  • Employment in the EU fell 0 .5% in Q3 and down 2.0% YoY

  • Sugar crushing in Brazil's centre-south cane hub in the second half of November totalled 25.4 million tonnes, down 16 % YoY, according to the Sugar Cane Industry Association, Unica. The fall was due to the impact of persistent wet weather.
  • Brazil said its sugar production in 2009-10 was likely to drop to 34m tonnes, down from an official forecast of 36.7m tonnes in September.

  • Cocoa traders are concerned about production shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for 56% of the world’s cocoa output.

  • Goldmans top man said the firm wasn't just trying to make money; it was doing "God's work." No kidding!

Greece defies Europe as EMU crisis turns deadly serious
Mr Papandreou has good reason to throw the gauntlet at Europe's feet. Greece is being told to adopt an IMF-style austerity package, without the devaluation so central to IMF plans. The prescription is ruinous and patently self-defeating. Public debt is already 113pc of GDP. The Commission says it will reach 125pc by late 2010. It may top 140pc by 2012.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales rose 1.3% in November.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 67.4 to 73.4

  • YOY India’s industrial production rose 10.3%

  • YoY U.K. producer prices rose 2.9%.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Jobless claims rose 17,000 to 474,000.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
    Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
    Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
    Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
    Sugar was kept at 1.016 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 4.90 to 4.50 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
    Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
    Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.

  • OJ was lowered from 136 to 135 million boxes.

  • Unica pegged Brazil's center-south sugarcane crush at 538.2 million tons for the 2009-10 crop compared to its previous estimate of 529.5 million tons

  • Uttar Pradesh is asking the central government to lift its restriction on raw sugar from Brazil amid severe shortages and rising prices.

  • YoY China’s factory output rose 19.2 %

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Nuremberg Revisited: Obama Administration Files To Dismiss Case Against John Yoo
If successful in this case, the Obama Administration will succeed in returning the world to the rules leading to the war crimes at Nuremberg. Quite a legacy for the world’s newest Nobel Peace Prize winner.

Quick Overview

  • (Bloomberg) China, the world’s largest steel consumer, will impose provisional duties on some U.S. and Russian imports following anti-dumping and subsidy investigations, escalating a trade spat started in September.

  • The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications rose 8.5% last week

  • U.S. wholesales rose 1.2% in October

  • U.S. Inventories rose 0.3%.

  • Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% in the third quarter, but fell5.1% YoY

  • Greece's new socialist government promised Wednesday to step up efforts to reduce the growing deficit after a ratings agency downgraded the country's debt rating.

  • London bankers reacted with fury to UK government plans to levy a 50% super tax on banks’ bonus payouts.

  • Spain has its credit outlook cut to negative from stable by the ratings agency Standard & Poor's, rattling European markets.

  • MoM Japanese core machinery orders fell 4.5% in October

  • Australian employers added 31,200 workers in November

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels to 336.1 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 2.2 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 700,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 79.7% to 81.1% of capacity
    Gasoline demand rose 1.2% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 8.3% YoY

  • Sugar output in Brazil’s Center South is estimated at 28.9 million metric tons, down from November’s projection of 29.3 million tons.

  • With roughly 12% of the U.S. corn crop still in the field, some are concerned that crop could lodge, or fall down, due to the snow and winds approaching 50 miles per hour.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

No update today

Quick Overview

  • (FT) Commodity markets remained under pressure as risk appetite weakened amid concerns about the sustainability of global economic recovery

Monday, December 07, 2009

Quick Overview

  • German factory orders fell 2.1% in October

  • World Bank: The number of malnourished as a percentage of the developing world's population has also started to rise again. After falling from 20 percent in 1990-92 to just under 16 percent in 2003-05, it now stands at almost 18 percent. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says a long-running decline in farm investment is the main culprit behind food shortages and estimates $44 billion in new investment is needed annually to boost agriculture in developing countries.

  • Indonesia may import 500,000 metric tons of white sugar starting in December to meet an expected domestic supply shortfall in 2010

  • (Reuters) - Big, full-service brokerages have lost a significant chunk of business to online firms that told small investors they are better off making their own decisions

  • (Bloomberg)... Coffee lowers the risk of Type 2 diabetes by increasing the body’s ability to use
    insulin to convert blood sugar to energy, previous research has shown. ...

Friday, December 04, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. unemployment rate improved from 10.2% to 10.0%

  • U.S. Factory orders rose 0.6% in October.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 8.6% to 8.5% in November

  • Cocoa futures in London rose the highest level in almost 25 years following market talk of a small crop in Ghana.

  • YoY Food inflation in India rose by over 17%

  • SLV (Silver ETF) Ounces of Silver in Trust up by 2.84% in 1 week.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. 30-year mortgages fell to new all-time low of 4.71%

  • U.S. jobless claims were down 5,000 last week at 457,000

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 50.6 to 48.7 in November

  • U.S. non-farm productivity rose 4.0%

  • U.S. labor costs fell 1.4%.

  • EU GDP rose 0.3% in Q3

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

China Grain Output May Drop 37% on Climate Change (Update1
..Research shows that for every degree warmer the atmosphere becomes the key growing period for rice to develop properly will be shortened by an average of 7-8 days and by 17 days for the winter wheat crop, Zheng said. “Yield and quality will drop accordingly,” he said.

Quick Overview

  • (Bloomberg) -- The global economy will expand 4.4 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent the following year as the world recovers from the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

  • ADP Employer Services said that there was a loss of 169,000 private jobs in November

  • The Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey: economy is improving; consumer spending is moderately higher; commercial real estate is deteriorating; home sales are up; labor market is weak.

  • The U.S. DOE said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.1 million barrels to 339.9 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 4.0 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 80.3% to 79.7%.
    Gasoline demand rose 0.7% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 7.7% YoY.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.7% MoM. YoY the index is up 32%.

  • U.S. construction output rose 1.6% YoY.

  • MoM U.S. retail sales rose 5.2%. YoY retail sales rose 2.6%.

  • EU unemployment was unchanged at 9.8% in October.

  • The Bank of Japan decided at an unscheduled policy meeting to offer up to Y10,000bn in three-month low-interest loans to commercial banks.

  • DryShips Inc., a provider of marine transportation services for drybulk cargoes, announced that its previously announced agreement to acquire 2 Panamax vessels has been terminated since no period employment could be secured in the agreed timeframe

  • From January to October China's iron ore import rose 36.8 %. In the same phase, domestic iron ore output reached about 702.66 million tons, up 36.04 million tons.

  • North Korea has revalued its currency by a factor of 100, causing chaos on the streets of Pyongyang.

  • Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 116,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2010/2011 marketing year.

  • (Reuters Life!) - Reviled by the public and spurned in private, bankers have been looking for solace in adultery, according to a dating website for people seeking affairs.

  • (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Tuesday it would delay until mid-2010 a decision on whether to increase the amount of ethanol added to ordinary gasoline, putting off a controversial ruling with consequences for farm states and the oil and automobile industries.The delay was anticipated by traders.

  • BNP Paribas Fortis forecasts world sugar demand to grow by 1% in 2009 versus the average rate of 2.66% a year over the past decade

  • The default rate for commercial mortgages in the US climbed to a fresh 16-year high of 3.4%

  • Australia's parliament rejected sweeping carbon-trade laws aimed at cutting greenhouse gases.

  • Thirteen mills in India's key sugar-producing state of Uttar Pradesh have stopped cane crushing operations due to supply shortages.
    state government official said Wednesday.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 54.2 to 56.1 in November

  • Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in Q3, but fell 3.2% YoY

  • Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% in October.

  • EU consumer prices rose 0.6% MoM

  • The USDA said:
  • 79% of the corn crop was harvested. 21% or 2.7 bln bu of corn remain in the field; including 28% of IL, 22% of MN & NE, 60% of ND, 42% of SD, 33% of WI.
  • 96% of the soybean crop was harvested. 133 million bushels of soybeans remain in the field.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90bn fresh losses
The venerable bank said in its Stability Report that the world had narrowly averted a "virtually uncontrollable" collapse in the late summer of 2008. While the credit system has partly stabilised, the underlying problems "are still far from being overcome" and money markets are not yet functioning properly.

Quick Overview

  • The central bank of the United Arab Emirates says it is setting up a facility to provide banks with extra liquidity. The Central bank is expected to announce it will guarantee Dubai World debt before stock markets open on Monday.

  • The rush by retail investors into gold has forced the US government to suspend sales of the world’s most popular bullion coin, the American Eagle, after running out of inventories for the second time since August of 08.

  • Bloomberg reported that Europe holds $87 billion of debt from the United Arab Emirates and roughly $50 billion of that is held by British banks. The Royal Bank of Scotland is said to have the biggest exposure to Dubai World, with $2.3 billion of its debt.

  • Freight traffic on U.S. railroads reached its highest level so far this year

  • Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1% in October

  • Vietnam devalued its currency by 5.4 % and lifted interest rates by 1% to try and choke off inflation.

  • According to the China gold association, Chinas gold demand may be more than 450 metric tons this year, up from 395.6 tons in 2008, and output may climb to 310 tons, compared with 282 tons a year earlier.

  • Iran’s government said it would build 10 new uranium enrichment sites and look into enriching uranium at higher grade inside the country.

  • The US military could have captured or killed Osama bin Laden in 2001 if it had launched a concerted attack on his hideout in Afghanistan, according to a report from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Updates resume Nov. 29

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP rose 0.7% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.5%.

  • The Standard and Poor Case-Shiller index of home prices rose 0.3% in September.

  • U.S. consumer confidence rose from 48.7 to 49.5

  • Industrial new orders in the EU rose 1.7% MoM, but fell 16.4% YoY

  • The International Sugar Organization is predicting world sugar production will exceed consumption by 0.75 million tons in 2010-2011. The 2009-2010 production deficit is forecast at 7.2 million tons.


Monday, November 23, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Spurred by a tax credits that lured first-time buyers, U.S. existing home sales rose 10.1% in October, and 23.5% YoY

  • The National Association for Business Economists said that they expect U.S. GDP to be up 2.9% in 2010, up from their previous forecast of 2.6%.

  • Canada’s retail sales rose 1.0% MoM

  • There seems to have been a shift in attitude , from fearing a large South American soybean crop to needing one.

  • Coca-Cola, the world's largest soft-drink maker, is planning to more than double its number of bottling plants in China within a decade, the Financial Times said.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Quick Overview

  • China's sugar imports in October rose sharply to 56,882metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. Last October, the country imported 13,911 tons of sugar. In the January-October period, sugar imports rose 42% to 1.01 million tons,Customs said.

  • China's cotton imports in October rose 23% YoY to 118,580 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. In the January-October period, cotton imports fell 36% to 1,196,644 tons.

  • Manila Philippines: the usual (annual) rice shortfall is around 1.5 million tons, added to that is the typhoon damage of 850,000 tons, which means our rice imports (next year) will reach around 2.35 million tons," said NFA spokesperson Rex Estoperez

  • The USDA said there were 11.134 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.5% YoY. Placements in October rose 1%., marketing’s fell 3%.

  • The USDA said there were 37.0 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on October 31st, up 71% YoY. Frozen pork supplies totaled 520 million pounds, down 1% YoY.

  • (FT)Microsoft has had discussions with News Corp over a plan that would involve the media company’s being paid to “de-index” its news websites from Google, setting the scene for a search engine battle that could offer a ray of light to the newspaper industry

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Growth and recovery are expected in 2010 in most world regions, but the upturn will be modest, the OECD says.

  • U.S. jobless claims were unchanged last week at 505,000.

  • U.S. delinquency rate on mortgage loans rose from 9.24% to a record high 9.64% Q3. The foreclosure rate rose from 4.30% to 4.47% in Q3. That makes one in seven homeowners either late on their payments or already in foreclosure.

  • The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3% in October.

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 11.5 to 16.7 in November,

  • Canada’s wholesale sales rose 0.2% MoM, but fell10.4% YoY

  • Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.7% in October

  • U.K. retail sales rose 3.0% YoY.

  • The World Gold Council said gold demand totaled 800.3 tons in Q3, up 15% QoQ , but fell 34% YoY. YoY Mine production rose 6%.

  • The U.S. dollar will remain the world's primary reserve currency for many years or decades, an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday.

  • The early start to the rainy season this year in Brazil has heightened concerns that Asian soybean rust could vex farmers more than usual. The first incident of the disease for the 2009-10 crop year was discovered Wednesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state.

  • Dylan Grice at Societe General says the price at which the dollar would be fully backed by gold (as it was at the peak in the 1970s) is $6300

  • The return of the resources boom was again confirmed by the news yesterday that the value of mining and energy projects under development in Australia had jumped 40% from April to October this year.

  • (Spiegel)Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. housing starts fell 10.6% MoM.

  • YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in October

  • EU construction output fell 1.1%

  • Australia’s leading indicators rose 0.9% in September

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 900,000 barrels to 336.8 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 79.9% to 79.4% of capacity
    Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 11.4% YoY


Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% MoM, but fell 1.9% YoY

  • U.S. Industrial production rose 0.1% in October.

  • YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 1.5%

  • EU exports rose 17% MoM, but fell 19% YoY

  • Rumours of findings of significant fungal contamination in the US corn crop lifts the price of other livestock feeds, including soymeal and rapeseed.

  • Argentina’s persistent drought has caused Oil World to lower their Soy production estimate by 2 MMT, now pegging 2009/10 output at 48 MMT, 5 MMT below the USDA's estimate.

If Nothing Else, Save Farming
According to farm scientists at Cornell University, cultivating one hectare of maize in the United States requires 40 litres of petrol and 75 litres of diesel(3). The amazing productivity of modern farm labour has been purchased at the cost of a dependency on oil. Unless farmers can change the way it’s grown, a permanent oil shock would price food out of the mouths of many of the world’s people. Any responsible government would be asking urgent questions about how long we have got.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Fed is monitoring currency markets “closely” and will conduct policy in a way that will “help ensure that the dollar is strong”, Ben Bernanke said in rare comments on the US currency.

  • U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in October. Excluding autos sales rose 0.2%.

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 34.57 to 23.51 in November.

  • Canada's existing home sales rose 41% in October

  • Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.4% in September

  • Japan's GDP rose 1.2% in Q3, but fell 4.5% YoY

  • YoY EU consumer prices rose 0.5% in October

  • (Bloomberg)The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, issued its third tender for 2010 supplies after storms damaged crops and the country accelerates imports to secure shipments amid surging prices.. “We have to secure our supplies ahead of everybody else,” Romeo Jimenez, director of the authority, said in a phone interview from Manila today. “India will also be importing rice. Prices will rise.”

  • White sugar tenders for the expired December futures contract were 5,520 lots, with Louis Dreyfus taking delivery of all the contracts.
Mayfly May Thwart $3 Billion in Coal Mined in U.S. Mountaintops
Mountaintop mining in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee and parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio accounts for 6 percent of U.S. coal production. Half of U.S. electricity comes from burning coal.

China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy
It is fashionable to talk of America as the supplicant. That misreads the strategic balance. Washington can bring China to its knees at any time by shutting markets. There is no symmetry here. Any move by Beijing to liquidate its holdings of US Treasuries could be neutralized – in extremis – by capital controls. Well-armed sovereign states can do whatever they want.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The US trade deficit widened by $36.5bn -- to the largest amount in 10 years. The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports rose 2.9% in September to $132.0, billion while imports rose 5.8% to $168.4 billion.

  • Plans to strip the Fed of its bank supervision powers were rebuffed by senior Obama administration officials.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.6 to 66.0 in November,

  • EU GDP rose 0.2% in Q3 and fell 4.3% YoY

  • (FT) Two computer programmers from Bernard Madoff’s fraudulent investment operation were arrested on charges of falsifying Mr Madoff’s trading records to make them appear regular and above board

  • Scientists who crashed two spacecraft into a crater on the moon said on Friday they found water in the dust they kicked up, just as they had hoped.

  • News that funds manager Blackrock expects central banks to be net gold buyers in 2009 is contributing to gold's rise.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 502,000, less than expected.

  • The U.S. Treasury sold $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds at a median yield of 4.39%. The bid to cover ratio was 2.26, the lowest since May.

  • The U.S. ran a record federal budget deficit of $176.4 billion in October up from $155.5 billion deficit a year ago.

  • EU industrial production rose 0.2% MoM but fell 12.1% YoY.

  • Canada’s new home prices rose 0.5% MoM, but fell 2.7% YoY.

  • YoY factory output in India rose 9.1% in September

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 1.8 million barrels to 337.7 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 2.5 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 80.6% to 79.9%
    Gasoline demand fell 1.0% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 13.8% YoY

  • Russian president calls on country to refocus its economy away from energy and heavy industry towards information technology, telecommunications and space

  • The Treasury secretary, in Singapore at the APEC meeting, offered fresh reassurances that the administration was committed to bolster the dollar.

  • China's raw coal output hit 270 million tons in October, climbing to the year's second highest peak

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Quick Overview

  • US Treasury secretary Geithner tells reporters in Japan he believes in the need to maintain a strong dollar and that the US is determined to get its budget deficit down

  • Japan's machinery orders rose 10.5% in September, better than expected.

  • The UK jobless total rose to 2.46 million in the three months to September, but the increase was the smallest since May 2008.

  • Australian Employers unexpectedly added 24,500 jobs

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 11.4% in Q3 and up 5.9% YoY.

  • China's Industrial Production rose 16.1% YoY

  • USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was lowered from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels. (46 day supply)
    Soybeans were raised from 230 to 270 million bushels.
    Wheat was raised from 864 to 885 million bushels. (145 day supply)
    Sugar was raised from 836,000 to 1,016,000 tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 5.40 to 4.90 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was lowered from 136 to 132 million tons. (60 day supply)
    Soybeans were raised from 55 to 57 million tons.
    Wheat was raised from 187 to 188 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 56 to 54 million bales.

  • The USDA expects beef production to be down 3% in 2009 and down 1% in 2010.

  • The USDA expects pork production to be down 1% in 2009 and down 3% in 2010..

  • China's refined sugar production in October fell 17%. For the January-October period refined sugar output fell 13% YoY.

Monday, November 09, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The IMF said the US dollar is "on the strong side".

  • Policy makers from this weekend's G-20 meeting in Scotland assure investors that central banks are not yet ready to withdraw stimulus from the world's economy.

  • Bloomberg said China's corn crop will be down 13% YoY

  • Tropical Storm Ida is bringing more rain to the already-wet southeastern U.S.

  • The Indian government intends to release 3 MMT of wheat to the domestic market. Is that the same 3 MMT that they were going to release two months ago?

  • The Baltic Dry Index posted a sixth weekly advance as rates for smaller iron-ore transporters rose to the highest in more than a year.

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Unnatural disaster
..the balance works out at 96 per cent navigation, 3 per cent flood protection and 1 per cent environmental restoration.

Friday, November 06, 2009

Quick Overview

  • US jobs data out worse than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up by 190,000 against expectations of 175,000 and unemployment rising from 9.8% last month to 10.2% now

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.7% MoM while inventories fell 0.9%.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in October

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates GDP will be up 1.75% in 2009 and up 3.25% in 2010.

  • The US ag attachee cut to 13.2m tonnes the forecast for Chinas sugar output, representing a 9% cut on their initial estimate, and a 1.2% fall YoY.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000, less than expected.

  • YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 9.5% in Q3

  • YoY U.S labor costs fell 3.6% in Q3

  • The EU kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%

  • EU retail sales fell 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY.

  • Brazil's expects soybean production of 63 million tons in 2009-2010

  • England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the US Congress last week that the debt path was out of control and raised "a real risk that Japan could end up in a major default".

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve took small steps in the direction of a more hawkish stance on rates, tweaking its guidance on future policy for the first time since March.

  • The ADP employment report showed that 203,000 private sector jobs were lost in October. Although this was more than the 190,000 forecast, investors welcomed the fact it represented the smallest number since July 2008.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 50.9 to 50.6 in October

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 8%

  • The World Bank expects GDP in China to be up 8.4% in 2009 and up 8.7% in 2010

  • Services in the U.K. rose from 55.3 to 56.9 in October

  • Services in the Euro zone rose from 52.3 to 52.6 in October

  • Australia's retail sales fell 0.2% in September.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 4.0 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 300,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 1.1 million barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 81.8% to 80.6%
    Gasoline demand was unchanged YoY
    Distillate demand fell 14.8% YoY.

  • Gold prices extended their record breaking run, pushing towards $1,100

  • Informa estimates the US corn crop at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 164.8 bushels per acre
    Informa estimates the US bean crop at 3.333 billion bushels with a bpa of 42.4.
    The last USDA estimate, in Oct, was 13.018 billion corn with a 164.2 bpa and 3.250 billion beans with a 42.4 bpa.
    Last month, Informa estimated the corn crop at 13.127 with a 164.7 bpa and the bean crop at 3.250 billion with a 44 bpa.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Rice futures in Chicago rose to the highest price in almost 10 months on mounting concern that Indian inventories will trail demand, forcing the world’s second-largest producer to import grain.
    Output in India has declined because of adverse weather, and the government plans to buy 26 million metric tons of the grain from farmers this year to bolster domestic stockpiles and avoid food shortages, said Dennis DeLaughter, a rice farmer and the owner of Progressive Farm Marketing in Edna, Texas.
    “The government is trying to make sure they don’t have a panic on their hands, so they’re moving rice into the market early to avoid having a run on supplies,” DeLaughter said.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.

  • U.S. Factory orders rose 0.9% in September, better than expected.

  • Australia increased its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%, as expected.

  • Gold has hit an all-time high of USD 1,085 after it was announced that India's central bank had bought 200 MT of the stuff from the IMF in deal worth USD6.7 billion. This appears to confirm that central banks are comfortable entering the market to hold gold at over USD 1,000/oz.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 52.6 to 55.7 in October.

  • U.S. employment index rose from 46.2 to 53.1

  • U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM.

  • Chinas manufacturing index rose from 55.0 to 55.4 in October -- the highest reading in 18 months.

  • U.K.’s manufacturing index rose from 49.9 to 53.7 in October

  • EU manufacturing rose from 49.3 to 50.7 in October

  • Pending U.S. home sales, representing contracts signed for home purchases, rose 6.4 % MoM. YoY the pending sales index rose 12.4%

  • Ford Motor Co. said Monday it earned a profit of $997 million in Q3, a $1.2 billion rebound from the Q3 a year ago.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.

Quick Overview

  • The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 70.6 from 73.5 in Sep.

  • U.S. personal incomes fell 0.1% in September, spending fell 0 .5%.

  • Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in September

  • Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% in August and 4.0% YoY

  • Unemployment rate in the EU rose from 9.1% to 9.2% in September

  • Germany's retail sales fell 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY

  • Japan's central bank said it would stop buying corporate debt in December, ending some of the emergency credit measures implemented earlier this year

  • India, typically amongst the world's top three or four rice exporters, Friday issued a tender for import of 10,000 metric tons of rice.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Central banks chill asset rally Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, said investors should move with care as central banks awaken. A study of 19 "bear market" rallies over recent decades shows that bourses tend to tip over as the US Federal Reserve starts tightening. Equities fall back 25pc over the next 13 months on average. It is unlikely to be better this time.

Growth and jobs
At this rate, we wouldn’t reach anything that feels like full employment until well into the second Palin administration.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP rose 0.9% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.3%.

  • US jobless claims fell 1,000 to 530,000.

  • The IMF expects 2010 GDP growth of 9% in China and 6.4% in India.

  • Japan's industrial output rose 1.4% in September

  • Lumber closed up its $10 maximum daily limit

  • China agreed to end the ban on imports of U.S. pork.

India May Import Rice, Fueling ‘Panic,’ IRRI Says
(Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of “panic” that sent prices to records in 2008, a rice expert said.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 24.1% YoY.

  • YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.4% in September

  • Norway raised its interest rate 0.25%.

  • The U.S. will need to import as much as 1.2 million tons more sugar than the U.S. Department of Agriculture now plans on allowing into the country in fiscal year 2010, according to the Sweetener Users Association

  • India is expected to import up to 3.5 million metric tons of rice in coming months, Dwight Roberts, president and chief executive of the U.S. Rice Producers Association sais

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Rice Market ‘On Thin Ice’ as Record Prices May Return (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices may return to record levels as bad weather curbs output in major growers including India, a Philippine minister and the U.S. Rice Producers Association said.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell from 53.4 to 47.4 in October

  • The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from +14 to +7 in October

  • The Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 11.3% YoY. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

  • The eurozone reports the first YoY fall in bank lending to the private sector of 0.3% -- strengthening the case for the ECB to maintain its ultra-loose interest rate policy.

  • India will extend the deadline for duty-free imports of the raw sugar by nine months to Dec. 31 2010

  • (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, plans to bring forward imports for 2010 to beat other nations to the market before prices surge and ensure stockpiles aren’t drained, the National Food Authority said.

  • India eliminates 70% import tax on some rice types

  • “You can’t find a year in USDA’s data (which goes back to 1972) on corn harvest activity that is as slow as this year [20%complete]. Period. (CME)

Monday, October 26, 2009

Quick Overview

  • South Korea’s GDP rose 2.6% in Q3 and 0 .6% YoY

  • China’s copper imports totaled 282,828 tons in September, up 29%

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Food will never be so cheap again
The world's grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China's inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.

Friday, October 23, 2009

U.S. Risks Japan-Like ‘Lost Decade’ on Stimulus Exit, Koo Says
“If you learn your lesson from the Japanese experience, you don’t remove your fiscal stimulus until private sector de- leveraging is over,” Koo, 55, chief economist at the research arm of Japan’s biggest brokerage, said in an interview at his Tokyo office last week. “When we see the private sector coming to borrow again, I’ll be the loudest person on earth arguing for fiscal reform. That’s the exit.”

Quick Overview

  • The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales rose 9.4% in September

  • U.K. GDP fell 0.4% in Q3 and 5.2% YoY

  • EU industrial orders rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 22.3% YoY.

  • Amazon and Microsoft reported better-than-expected results

  • The USDA said pork production rose 1% YoY

  • The USDA said beef production fell 2% YoY.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 11,000 last week to 531,000, more than expected.

  • U.S. Index of leading indicators rose 1.0% in September

  • Canada retail sales rose 0.8% MoM but fell 3.8% YoY

  • U.K. Retail sales were unchanged MoM and up 2.1% YoY.

  • YoY Japan's exports fell 30.7% in September.

  • The Swedish central bank kept interest rates at .25%. The bank indicated they would keep rates near zero in the future

  • U.S. steel exports rose 13.1% MoM

  • A tape containing the personal data of 51,000 UK customers has been lost by insurance company Zurich, the company confirms

Sharia Banking Comes to Germany
The underlying concept of the Islamic banking business is the Prophet Muhammad's prohibition of interest. Like Jesus in the New Testament, Muhammad took action against the usurers of his time, who exploited their contemporaries by charging them exorbitant interest, sometimes well over 100 percent. Muhammad summarily prohibited charging interest unless something was provided in return. Since the 1970s, Islamic banks have sought to satisfy this requirement by offering their customers financial services on the basis of interest-free transactions

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Volcker Fails to Sell a Bank Strategy
He wants the nation’s banks to be prohibited from owning and trading risky securities, the very practice that got the biggest ones into deep trouble in 2008. And the administration is saying no, it will not separate commercial banking from investment operations.

Down with the dollar
But if foreign investors are so concerned, why is the dollar’s decline not accompanied by a sharp rise in bond yields? One reason may be that the Federal Reserve has been buying so much of the year’s debt issuance, as part of its quantitative easing programme. That has helped to keep yields down.

Quick Overview

  • Australia’s leading indicators rose 1.1% in August.

  • YoY Chinas GDP rose 8.9% in Q3

  • The pound rallies after the Bank of England says its policymakers voted 9-0 not to pump more money into the UK economy.

  • Wells Fargo earned $2.6 billion in Q3 – a record

  • Morgan Stanley earned $498 million in Q3

  • The U.S. DOE said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 1.3 million barrels last week at 339.1 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 2.3 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 80.9% to 81.1% of capacity.
    Gasoline demand rose 4.2% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 12.1% YoY.

  • Demand for coal to generate electricity and make steel in China and India is expected to grow by 7% to 8% annually in the next five years, leaving the world "chronically" short of the fuel, the head of U.S. coal miner Peabody Energy Inc (BTU.N) said.

  • Argentine farmers will plant a record 19 million hectares with soybeans this season, up from the previous high mark by 7%, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchangesaid.
  • They forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 7.5 million metric tons. Down sharply from the five year average of 14.8 million tons

  • YoY China's refined sugar production in September fell 57% to 14,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. From January to September, sugar output fell 13% YoY.

  • (Spiegel) The European Union is funding ambitious programs aimed at monitoring human behavior in an effort to identify deviance and pick out potential terrorists. The implications for privacy are myriad.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Euro at $1.50 is 'disaster' for Europe Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Russia have all been buying dollars to stem their currencies' rises. The effect is to perpetuate the imbalances that led to the credit bubble from 2004-2007 and ultimately caused the financial crisis. Reserve accumulation fuels asset booms because it creates a wash of liquidity and drives down global bond yields. Asia clearly needs to sharply revalue against the West to right the system.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 590,000 -- up 0.5% MoM. Less than had been expected

  • Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%

  • Canada’s leading indicators rose 1.1% in September

  • To curb the upward climb of its currency, Brazil announced that it would impose a 2% tax on overseas purchases of stocks and bonds

  • Construction output in the EU fell 0.5% MoM and 11.1% YoY.

  • The USDA said 17% of corn and 30% of soybeans were harvested

  • The global sugar deficit of 8.3 million metric tons in the 2009-10 period should reverse to a surplus in the 2010-11 period, said the general director of Kingsman, a Lausanne, Switzerland-based consultancy.
  • Sugar content in cane has fallen to 5-6 percent from the usual 9 percent level in Uttar Pradesh, India's top producing state of the sweetener, according to a PTI story
  • India's sugar production is expected to rise to 18 million metric tons (prev. 16-17) in 2009-10, according to an Indian government official inBrazil.
  • Mexico's new 2009-10 sugar harvest is forecast to produce 5,168,188 metric tons, up 4.1% of semi-refined standard sugar, the National CaneSugar Growers Union said Tuesday.

  • U.S. economist, Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate, said the risk of deflation is still a concern, despite signs of an economic recovery.

  • Illy forecasts 2010-11 world coffee production at 145 million 60-kilgrambags, up from 132 million bags in 2009-10. Consumption in 2010 is pegged at around 135 million bags,leaving a 10 million bag surplus, said Illy.

  • Russia harvested 98.8 million tons of grain as of Oct. 20, down 13.4 million tons YoY.

Monday, October 19, 2009

A sterling crash is a godsend

Politically, these countries face what options traders call "time decay". The longer it lasts, the worse it gets.

Quick Overview

  • Agriculture production needs to expand by 70% through 2050, as the global population rises to 9.1 billion from 6.7 billion, Jacques Diouf, director-general at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said.

  • Bernanke said Asian economies are leading the world economic recovery, but should focus on boosting consumption.

  • Japan's tertiary index of services rose from 96.8 to 97.1 in August -- better than expected.

  • British same-store sales rose 7.5% in September

  • CWG - Nearly half of Brazil's wheat suffering major losses due to persistent rains this month. Brazil world's largest wheat importer (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)

  • Rain in Brazil is also delaying the harvest of sugarcane. Cazrnikow's director of research, Toby Cohen, said: "There simply will not be enough sugar to meet ongoing levels of demand. "Limits on supply require a forced adjustment of consumption. To this end it is clear that prices will need to move higher to ration demand."

  • The USDA said that there were 10.474 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1st, up 0.6% YoY

  • RBA: A “very expansionary setting of policy was no longer necessary, and possibly imprudent,” officials said

  • Koyodo News reported that crude steel output in Japan in the April to September first half of fiscal 2009 fell by 29.6% YoY to 43.33 million tonnes, marking a 40 year low on a semiannual basis due to a plunge in demand.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Burning coal to generate electricity in the U.S. causes about $62 billion a year in “hidden costs” for environmental damage, not including expenses related to global warming, the National Academy of Sciences said.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Industrial production rose 0.7% in September and was revised up 1.2% for August.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 73.5 to 69.4

  • YoY Canada’s consumer prices fell 0.9%

  • YoY EU exports fell 20% in August

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 10,000 to 514,000 -- the lowest in nine months.

  • Consumer prices in the EU rose0.3% YoY.

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 18.9 to 34.6 in October

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 14.1 to 11.5 in October

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 400,000 barrels to 337.8 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline fell 5.2 million barrels
    Supplies 0f heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 85.0% to 80.9%.
    Gasoline demand rose 5.3% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 10.8% Yoy.

  • North American cocoa bean grindings in the third quarter totaled 118,405metric tons, down 586 tons, or 0.49%, from the same period last year, theNational Confectioners Association said Thursday.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales fell 1.5% in September. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.5%, better than expected.

  • U.K. unemployment rate remained at 7.9%

  • EU industrial production rose 0.6% in August, but fell 13.5% YoY.

  • Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.1%

  • JP Morgan earned $3.6 billion in Q3 -- better than expected.

  • Intel expects a strong fourth quarter.

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 6.8% YoY.

  • China's major ports handled 4.5 billion tons of cargo between January and August, an increase of 4.9 % compared to the same period last year.

  • World sugar output is forecast to increase to 156.9 million tonnes in 2009/10 from 150.0 million in 2008/09, German analyst F.O. Licht said in its first forecast for sugar production in the new crop year. "As sugarcane needs 12 to 18 months to mature, the cane that has been planted in response to this year's price surge will only be ready for harvesting for the 2010/11 crush." F.O. Licht said.

  • Europe's cocoa grind fell 1.5% YoY to 343,471 tonnes in Q3 of 2009, the European Cocoa Association said on Wednesday.

  • Concerns about supplies in both Asia and the U.S. havesent CBOT rice to its highest price in nine months

Friday, October 09, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. trade gap narrowed in August to $30.7 billion, down 3.6 percent from a revised estimate of $31.9 billion for July

  • Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 8.7% to 8.4% in September

  • Japan's machinery orders rose 0.5% in August

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
    Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
    Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 836,000 tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
    Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
    Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
    Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.

  • The USDA estimates the Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop at 136 million boxes, down 16% YoY

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 33,000 last week to 521,000,

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 17.7% YoY

  • U.S. Inventories fell 1.3% MoM and fell 14.7% YoY

  • The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged,.

  • European cocoa bean grindings in Q3 totaled 406,080 metric tons, up 16.5% YoY

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Quick Overview

  • GDP in the EU fell 0.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY

  • Japan's coincident index rose from 89.8 to 91.4 in August

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 1 million barrels to 337.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 2.9 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 84.6% to 85.0%
    Gasoline demand rose 6.2% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 9.5% YoY.

  • German cocoa grind rose 11% QoQ

  • Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimates the upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes versus 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess is 5.25 million tonnes versus their September guess of 5.85 million.

  • (Bloomberg) Sugar deliveries from Brazil may face delays next year after above-average rains pared cane yields and slowed the harvest, producer Grupo Jose Pessoa SA said. Deliveries originally scheduled for the first half of 2010 may be delayed until later in the year or the first half of 2011.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.K. manufacturing output fell 1.9% in August.

  • Arctic air flow may enter IA on Thurs with 3 or 4 nights of frost. Hard freeze (28F) possible Friday night over much of the state. Elvin

Monday, October 05, 2009

Quick Overview

  • Australia raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25%

  • The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, rose to 50.9 from 48.4 in August -- higher than forecast.

  • Retail sales in the EU fell 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY.

  • EU manufacturing and services rose from 50.4 to 51.1.

  • Services in the U.K. rose from 54.1 to 55.3 in September.

  • FCStone to raise its estimate for a global sugar shortfall in the year ended September to 8 million tons, from 6.1 million tons previously.

  • Roubini thinks that the piles of money being printed are leading to asset bubbles in stocks and commodities

  • Norway is rated the best place in the world to live

  • (Arlan Suderman) Commodity Weather Group raises risk of hard freeze for NW half of Mdwst by Oct. 13 to 80%. Risk for northern Delta by 14th is 20%.

  • Sugar production in India'sKarnataka state is expected to decline for a second year due to flooding

  • (DJ) Soybean Rust Making Fast Late-Season Push; No Damage Foreseen

  • (FT) Traders are concerned that the cocoa market could face a supply deficit for a fourth year in succession as yields from ageing cocoa trees in the Ivory Coast have been affected by disease.

Friday, October 02, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.7% to 9.8% in September. Non-farm payrolls fell 263,000 – more than expected.

  • U.S. factory orders fell 0.8% in August.

  • Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% in August

  • U.K. house prices rose 0.9% in September.

  • Canada estimates its 2009 wheat crop at 24.58 million tons, up from 23.61 million tons in July.

  • The idle container fleet worldwide has climbed to 548 ships, totaling 1.29 million TEU capacity at the end of September. This represents 10% of the total fleet capacity, or 11.6% of the total number of containerships.

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The IMF said that it expects the world economy to contract 1.1% in 2009 -- but grow 3.1% in 2010

  • The IMF expects real GDP in the U.S. to fall2.7% in 2009, but up 1.5% in 2010.

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 17,000 last week to 551,000, more than expected.

  • U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM, but fell 11.6% YoY.

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.2%

  • U.S. Consumer spending rose 1.3%

  • Supply Management reported that its monthly index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 52.6 in September from 52.9 in August -- surprisingly weak

  • The National Association of Realtors said that its index of pending home U.S. sales rose 6.4% MoM and 12.4% YoY

  • Unemployment in the EU rose from 9.0% to 9.1% MoM

  • YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.8% in August

  • Manufacturing in Australia rose from 51.7 to 52.0 MoM

  • Manufacturing in India rose from 53.2 to 55.0 MoM

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP fell 0.2% QoQ and down 3.8% YoY.

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 50.0 to 46.1

  • ADP said the U.S. lost 254,000 private-sector jobs in September

  • Canada’s GDP was unchanged in July and down 4.6% YoY

  • Industrial output in Japan rose 1.8% in August

  • Germany's unemployment rate improved from 8.3% to 8.2% in September.

  • The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.

  • The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected

  • The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 338.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels
    Refinery use fell from 85.6% to 84.6%
    Gasoline demand rose 5.4% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 9.2% YoY.

  • Barclays Capital expects world Sugar use to outpace production by 8.1 million tons in 2009-2010

  • (Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, is the weakest in more than three decades, threatening farm output in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar

  • Yum Brands Inc.'s (YUM) board approved an 11% dividend increase andauthorized $300 million of share repurchase.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Quick Overview

  • The S&P & Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices rose 1.6% in July and fell 13.3% YoY

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell from 54.5 to 53.1 in September

  • U.K. GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter and down 5.5% YoY

  • Consumer confidence in Canada rose from 88.4 to 90.9 in September

  • (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the chocolate ingredient, may decline by as much as 15 percent next season

Monday, September 28, 2009

Baltic Dry to Jump on Chinese Bulk Demand, Cosco Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the main measure of shipping costs for commodities, may surge more than 80 percent by the end of the year on increased demand for shipments to China, according China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co.

Quick Overview

  • (WSJ) The White House is close to committing up to $35 billion to help housing agencies provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families.

  • Japan's consumer price index fell 2.4%, the fastest pace on record

  • The USDA said there were 66.626 million head of hogs and pigs as of September 1st, down 2.3% YoY

  • The U.S. Grains Council sees smaller Chinese corn crop than USDA due to this year's drought. Based on the survey they estimate 2009 Chinese production down 9.7% YoY