Monday, August 31, 2020

A quite remarkable 60 year high chart is Real Disposable U.S. Income YoY % Change.  (working here) Cushioning the pandemic ...




However it appears not to be spent. (working here)


But saved  (working here) All 60 Year Highs / Lows


Sunday, August 30, 2020

Quick Overview is up to date


  • President Donald Trump is willing to sign a $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill, a top aide said on Friday, but Democratic House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the sum was not enough to meet the needs of the American people.


  • Reuters: Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.9% last month, after jumping 6.2% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would gain 1.5% in July. July’s increase left consumer spending about 4.6% percent below its February level.


  • “The Fed said it can allow inflation to run above its 2% target for some time seems like they are going to keep their monetary policy extremely loose”.


  • Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn-producing state, is facing its most widespread drought since September 2013, state agriculture secretary Mike Naig said on Friday.


  • In a dramatic U-turn, Brazil's Environment Ministry said on Friday it would continue to fight deforestation, reversing its position after saying hours earlier that it could not afford to continue enforcement efforts in the Amazon.


  • Reuters: The company that operates the Trump International Hotel in Vancouver said on Friday it has filed for bankruptcy, blaming the coronavirus pandemic for lost revenue and financial hardship.









Tuesday, August 25, 2020



Study: Black turbine blades reduced bird mortality by 72%

  • Some very long-term trends are changing for the better. First, insurance giant Suncorp says it won't insure oil or gas companies and projects. And now Exxon, the world’s biggest company as recently as 2011 is booted from the Dow Industrials.

  • Utilization rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) fell to 44% in August, their lowest level this year according to Vortexa data. The sharp drop since the year-to-date high of 52% in May follows stymied global demand recovery for crude and a significant loss of cargoes compared to 2019 levels.

  • DJIA changes: Out go Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Pfizer (PFE). In come Salesforce. com (CRM), Honeywell International (HON), and Amgen (AMGN).

  • Germany’s economy shrank by 9.7% from April to June compared with the first three months of the year.

  • The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 84.8 in August after tumbling to a downwardly revised 91.7 in July.

  • U.S. new home sales rose by 13.9 % to an annual rate of 901,000 in July after rising by 15.1 % to a rate of 791,000 in June.


Sunday, August 23, 2020

Drewry’s composite World Container index increased 4.2% to $2,176.90 per 40ft container this week. More shipping here and here

Saturday, August 22, 2020


 Quick Overview is up to date
  • The National Association of Realtors said on Friday sales of existing homes rose 24.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million units last month from 4.7 million in June. 


  • The average time on the market fell to 22 days in July, a record low, from 24 in June -- nearly 70% sold in less than a month. 

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.99% for the week ending Aug. 20 is clearly helping and creating a bit of a Real Estate sugar high. However, the surge in home prices is threatening to make buying a home unaffordable once again.



  • Meanwhile across the pond, the UK housing market has had its busiest month in more than 10 years in July.



  • Americans filing a new claim for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly back above the 1 million mark.





  • Guardian: A temperature of 54.4C – or 129.9F – has been recorded in Death Valley, CA in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.
  • If you are pondering why one of the strongest commodity markets is lumber? Well, millions of Beetles Are Wiping Out Forests All Across the World.



  • The Trump administration is taking the final steps to let oil and gas companies drill in the Arctic national wildlife refuge.

  • Meanwhile, this BIG DEAL! Aussie insurance giant Suncorp says it won't invest in or insure oil or gas companies and projects.


  • Goldman Sachs cut their default forecast for the US Junk sector to 10.5% from 13% for the full year.
  • Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to boost its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 3,000.


  • China drought, heavy rains spark concern over grain supply as Xi Jinping launches campaign against food waste. Concerns are mounting about China’s grain supply this year, despite government assurances that the summer harvest was at ‘an all-time high ‘Output has been hit by drought and heavy rains and many farmers are hoarding crops in expectation that prices will continue rising because of low supply, traders say.




  • The #Ebola outbreak in DRC's ├ëquateur province has now hit 100 cases & 43 deaths. Efforts to stop it are not going well. It is evolving in a concerning way,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa.



  • Looks like a new #Solar Cycle 25 is truly underwayPerhaps providing the Fuel for a new “solar powered” Roaring twenties? 


Friday, August 21, 2020


Could someone ask Taiwan what  they are up to, and ask, if perhaps they wouldn’t mind if it gets copied? 

Covid Deaths per 1 Million Population (so far)
Select Countries with believable numbers.

Taiwan 0.3
New Zealand 4
South Korea  6
Japan     9
Hong Kong   10
Australia    19
Greece      23
Norway 49
Austria   81
Israel  88
Denmark 107
Germany  111
Switzerland 231
Canada   240
France 467
USA    541
Sweden  575
UK    609
Spain 617
Belgium 861

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Major World Stock Indices are up to date

Quick Overview  is up to date

  • No sign of a stimulus deal - Senate is on vacation till next month.  







  • Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage. By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge… real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce...



  • Bloomberg: The U.S. seized four tankers carrying Iranian gasoline bound for Venezuela in an unprecedented move by the Trump administration that carries the potential to destabilize global oil shipments if Iran retaliates.




  • United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 172 from previous 176


  • (Reuters) - Hasan Ayhan followed his wife’s instructions last week and took their savings to buy gold at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar as Turks scooped up bullion worth $7 billion in a just a fortnight...Turks have traditionally used gold as savings and there may be as much as 5,000 tonnes of it “under mattresses”, with more added after the recent buying spree, Mehmet Ali Yildirimturk, deputy head of an Istanbul gold shops association, said.



  • Economist: Without relief or reform, the USPS estimates that it could run out of money sometime between April and October 2021.


  • MW: Meanwhile protesters gathered at the home of Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on Saturday to demand his resignation — a significant escalation of public pressure amid a pitched battle over mail-in ballots for the 2020 presidential election.


Sunday, August 09, 2020


  • Money is just not circulating all that well. So, talk of inflation is probably a bit premature.  Velocity of money 



  • YoY US Core consumer price inflation is currently at 1.2%


  • Great NEWS! (AP) — New Zealand on Sunday marked 100 days since it stamped out the spread of the coronavirus, a rare bright spot in a world that continues to be ravaged by the disease.

  • US Jobs grew 1.763 million, beating the consensus estimate of 1.6 million.  The unemployment rate at 10.2% is down from 11.1% in May.





  • According to Bloomberg US renters are having a bit of a problem. Some 27% missed their payment in July and some 34% have no confidence of being able to make the August payment. Loss of housing is similarly disruptive to both renters and owners on many dimensions.


  • Gold will top $3,000, says this firm, one of the first to call the gold bull market of the 20th century




  • Economist: Nvidia tries to get its hands on Arm


  • Smartphones that use a certain Qualcomm Inc. QCOM chip and run Alphabet Inc.'s GOOG Android operating system have hundreds of vulnerabilities that hackers can exploit to spy on users, according to cybersecurity company Check Point Software Technologies on Thursday.



  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 247, Canada +2 to 47 U.S. Rig Count is down 687 rigs from last year's count of 934, with oil rigs down 588, gas rigs down 100, and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 2.


  • Elon Digging? The machinery could suggest that the Boring Company is setting up to dig a tunnel connecting Los Angeles and Las Vegas,


  • Economist: Satellite images from Brazil’s National Space Agency revealed that there were 28% more fires in the Amazon this July compared with last year.


  • TIK Tok  The thing spreads faster than Covid-19: TikTok now has 800 million monthly active users around the globe. And it’s far more contagious: Just under half of U.S. teenage internet users have used TikTok. If it were a pathogen, it would be the Black Death. 



Quick Overview is up to date

Saturday, August 08, 2020

Lumber: looks like an all time high to me, at least since 1972 -  I have no idea if it was ever higher before. Must have a building boom going on - somewhere.
But where? Or perhaps it's all the paper towels that are being used ­čśĆ


Wednesday, August 05, 2020

The Real Estate Page is up to date, after some 3 years of neglect. Except Dow RE index & HGX index - these two should be up by next week - or so. Other neglected pages to follow...

Saturday, August 01, 2020


  • Apple (AAPL) is splitting its stock four for one - great for writing puts. Selling one $400 put will, after the split, only commit $10,000 versus $40,000. Bezos, are you paying attention?

 

  • Four out of the five members of the so-called FAANG group – Facebook, Amazon, Apple Netflix and Google – posted record-breaking earnings during the worst slump in a century.

 

  • Millions of unemployed Americans are about to lose $600 in additional weekly jobless benefits after the White House and Congress failed to reach an agreement to extend the supplement.


  • What are the expected economic effects if 30 million workers have their financial lifeline cut off? Any guesses? 
  • In addition, lots of people are going to be “very” disappointment if the much anticipated $1200 check is not forthcoming.

 

  • Consumer spending rose 5.6% last month after a record 8.5% jump in May as more businesses, that are now reclosing, had reopened. The two month surge in job gain may have stopped in July..

 

  • Bloomberg: The dollar's reign as the world's reserve currency is under threat, Goldman warned.

 

  • Starbucks: global same-store sales, fell 40% in Q3. However, customers while visiting less, they're placing bigger orders.

 

  • McDonald's is selling a stake in its Japan business and is accelerating U.S. restaurant closures it had planned earlier. Sales are also a bit on the weak side.

 

  • (Reuters) - With nearly seven months gone, an ambitious $36.5 billion target for Chinese imports of U.S. farm goods this year may not be quite out of reach, but it’s looking like a big, big stretch. 

 

  • Cruising during worldwide pandemic: ICYMI: 4 crew members on Norway cruise ship hospitalized with COVID-19 after it arrived at port of Tromsoe on Friday; operator Hurtigruten says all crew members quarantined on ship and the 177 passengers, who had already disembarked, told to self-isolate

 

  • Kids under age 5 may carry a much higher coronavirus viral load than older children and adults: study 

 

  • Banning TikTok? Trump may not realize how unpopular this move will be with generally politically indifferent teenagers…