Sunday, May 30, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Fitch cut its credit rating for Spain from AAA to AA+

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.4% in April.
  • U.S. Consumer spending was unchanged in April, weaker than expected.
  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 63.8 to 59.7 in May
  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence rose from 72.2 to 73.6 in May

  • Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.1% in April.
  • YoY Japan’s consumer prices fell 1.2% in April
  • YoY Japan’s household spending fell 0.7% in April.

  • (Bloomberg) -- The global refined sugar market will stay in deficit this year, with import demand exceeding available exports by 1 million metric tons, even as raw-sugar production expands, said Kingsman SA.
  • The global sugar market may have a surplus of 2.5 million tons in the year beginning Oct. 1, compared with a deficit of 8.5 million tons this year, the International Sugar Organization said May 14. Excess supply in 2010-2011 may be 6 million tons, Sucres et Denrees SA said April 30.

  • Silver prices are likely to hit $20 a troy ounce this year supported by “double-digit” growth in industrial consumption and strong investment demand, according to GFMS.

  • YoY U.S. Truck tonnage rose 7.5% in April -- the fifth straight year-to-year increase and the largest gain in more than five years, American Trucking Associations said Friday.

Spain is trapped in a 'perverse spiral' as wage cuts deepen the crisis This can end only in two ways. Either Germany tolerates massive monetary reflation by the ECB or Spain will be forced out of EMU, setting off a catastrophic chain-reaction through north Europe's banking system.

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Updates Resume May 30

EU Crafts $928 Billion Show of Force to Halt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers put together an unprecedented loan package that may be worth 720 billion euros ($928 billion) for debt-swamped governments in a bid to restore faith in the euro and prevent Greece’s fiscal woes from unleashing a global crisis.

Saturday, May 08, 2010

EU Finance Ministers Race to Ready Euro Fund Before Asia Opens

Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready before Asian markets open later today European time.

“We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,”

Friday, May 07, 2010

Quick Overview

  • (Reuters) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at the fastest pace in four years in April as private sector employers ramped up hiring, raising the strong possibility that the labor market recovery may be picking up steam.

  • UK general elections fail to produce a clear mandate

  • Spain’s economy crept out of recession in the first quarter of 2010 after nearly two years of decline, according to a preliminary estimate by the Bank of Spain GDP rose 0.1% in Q1.

  • China faces first drop in wheat harvest since 2003. Frost and drought have taken their toll on the world's top wheat producer, Rabobank says in a report noting better prospects for corn

Thursday, May 06, 2010

ECB paralysis rattles markets as debt costs hit new highs
"Governor Trichet came very close to saying that the current mess is not the ECB's problem," said Lars Rasmussen from Danske Banke.
.."It is no coincidence that the Greek crisis really took off when the ECB announced the end of its emergency liquidity measures in early December. Failure to tackle the crisis early and decisively has brought to the fore the risk of a sovereign default and the risk that one or more countries will leave the euro area. This is a lesson markets will not forget," he said.

Quick Overview

  • Greek lawmakers approved the government's 30 billion euro ($40 billion) austerity bill in a vote in parliament.

  • US equity prices whipsawed (BID from $30 to $100,000, ACN from $40 to $0) in value before closing sharply lower during a wild day on Wall Street that prompted leading stock exchanges to cancel some trades amid fears of trader errors and computer malfunctions.

  • (Reuters) - Nasdaq Operations said it will cancel all trades executed between 2:40 p.m. to 3 p.m. showing a rise or fall of more than 60 percent from the last trade in that security at 2:40 p.m or immediately prior.

  • U.S. non-farm productivity rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in Q1 and up 6.3% YoY

  • July lumber ended down its $10 daily limit at $285.50, hurt by today's commodities sell off.

  • Brazil's estimates the upcoming coffee crop at 47 million bags

  • Citrus Processors Report said there were 126.96 million gallons of frozen concentrated orange juice in inventory on April 24th

  • Services in the U.K. fell from 56.5 to 55.3 in April

  • International Cotton Advisory Committee said global cotton production in the coming season will leap 13% in reaction to surging prices.

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services stayed at 55.4 in April

  • US mortgage applications rose 13% last week as buyers rushed to secure federal tax credits.

  • EU retail unchanged in March and up 0.3% YoY.

  • EU manufacturing and services increased from 55.9 to 57.3 in April

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 360.6 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 1.2 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were unchanged.
    Refinery use rose from 89.0% to 89.6%.
    Gasoline demand rose 3.5% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 5.1% YoY

  • (Bloomberg) Some analysts interviewed expect a shortage of corn and cotton to occur sometime this year in China.

Euro plunges as Club Med debt fears spread Stephen Jen from BlueGold Capital, said the Greek rescue "kicks the can down the road" for three or six months but will not prevent a default in Greece and "probably Portugal". "Greece's bonds are 'Zombie Bonds' and can only be artificially and temporarily propped up," he said. Italy and Spain are safe only if they "use their time well".

Quick Overview

  • U.S. factory orders rose 1.3% in March

  • Manufacturing in China fell from 57.0 to 55.4 in April

  • Australia increased its interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%

Monday, May 03, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The EU and IMF finally put together a Greek bailout of 110 billion Euros.

  • Manufacturing for the Euro area rose from 56.6 to 57.6 in April

  • Manufacturing in Australia rose from 50.5 to 59.8 in April

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.3% in March

  • U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6%.

  • U.S. manufacturing (ISM) rose from 59.6 to 60.4

  • U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% MoM, but fell 12.3% YoY

  • China will raise reserve requirement 0.50% to 17%.

  • Australian mining shares fell after the government slapped a 40% tax on profits.

Saturday, May 01, 2010

Buffett Says Derivatives Law May Spare Berkshire on Collateral
“If for any reason the Treasury should go back and, in a more sweeping declaration, decide all past contracts be collateralized we would comply, naturally,” Buffett said. “And it will be no problem.”

(Warren, max leverage of about 16 to 1 at the CME would be just about right for you as well. Why don’t you lead by example?)