In defence of the deep state

A com­plex soci­ety is best served by a com­pet­ent, pro­fes­sional and neut­ral pub­lic ser­vice

Private Credit Is the Hot New Thing on Wall Street. But What Is It?

It sounds mysterious, but it’s really just a loan—often a risky one—made by an investment fund instead of through a bank.

There are many ways Trump could trigger a global collapse. Here’s how to survive if that happens

Because there is little public understanding of how complex systems operate, collapse tends to take almost everyone by surprise. 

This, as Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, has deftly explained, is what happened to the financial system in 2008.

Notes today

•  Trump indicated that the U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, along with similar duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

• Russell Vought, Donald Trump’s newly installed acting head of the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, announced on Saturday he had cut off the agency’s budget and reportedly instructed staff to suspend all activities including the supervision of companies overseen by the agency.

• The Department of Agriculture accidentally fired the employees working on bird flu response. They’re now frantically trying to get them back. 

• (UPI) -- A Wyoming woman hospitalized with bird flu is the state's first human case after her flock of chickens became infected and died, according to state officials.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Intel Has Biggest Rally Since 2020 on Breakup Speculation

The idea of the US buy­ing Nokia, Eric­sson or both is intriguing.

• Tele­coms equip­ment man­u­fac­tur­ing is one of the very few areas of tech­no­logy where the US is not just behind but not present at all. Reli­able net­works are vital for busi­ness and con­sumers alike, as well as becom­ing increas­ingly essen­tial in war­fare, as Ukraine is demon­strat­ing with its use of drones.

 Musk: 150-year-olds collecting SS

Notes today 

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• (Bloomberg) -- Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online-trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.

 

• US inflation unexpectedly increased to 3 per cent in January.

• John Rosenow, a Wis­con­sin dairy farmer, says that if Don­ald Trump deports all undoc­u­mented ali­ens, Amer­ic­ans will have to get used to a whole new diet.
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Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• BYD announced plans to roll out its assisted driving tech across all vehicles putting advanced features usually found only in highend vehicles into the mass market -- including one priced under $10,000. 

• Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. 

• China and the US are facing the pro­spect of a renewed full-blown trade war as retali­at­ory Chinese tar­iffs on $14bn of Amer­ican exports came into effect yes­ter­day. 

• China has started a pilot program that allows insurers to buy gold for the first time. The move would potentially free up $27 billion of funds, says Minsheng Securities. 

• A dairy worker in Nevada was infected with a new type of bird flu that’s different from the version that has been spreading in U.S. herds since last year, federal health officials said Monday.
• Unfortunately, we seem to have no idea how widespread this version of the (#H5N1) virus already is in cattle herds.

• Public health authorities said Tuesday that an outbreak of measles in western Texas has expanded, while a new case was confirmed nearby across state lines in New Mexico.

• It appears that humanity now has about a spoon full (seven grams) of nano plastics in the brain.

• Microplastics can move through mice brains and block blood vessels, essentially mimicking blood clots that could potentially be fatal or otherwise disrupt brain function.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 Gold at all time high

Notes today 

• Financial markets have lived with a potential US-led trade war for months - so starting this evening it will be time to deal with reality.

• World Markets Brace for Impact of Sweeping US Tariffs 

• Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Tariffs Hit Auto Sector

• Elon Musk’s task force has gained access to sensitive Treasury payment systems, sources say.

• Bloomberg: Soybean and corn plants hit by a drought on the Argentine Pampas are in worse shape than public forecasts say, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.

• So far market (S&P) not overly happy. 2/2/2025     3.05 pm (PT)

• Mexican Peso

• Canadian $ 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

DeepSeek Challenges Everyone’s Assumptions About AI Costs

The Chinese upstart says its rival to ChatGPT comes at a fraction of the cost, raising questions about the rationale for stratospheric AI budgets.

• US tech might not be so exceptional after all.

 Health Expenditure per capita vs. life expectancy

Will America’s crypto frenzy end in disaster?

• Nassin Nicholas Taleb on Crypto / Bitcoin

 Eggs

• Some 36 million egg-laying chickens have been killed in recent months in order to prevent the spread of  bird flu.

 

Notes today 

• Tesla,  trading at 12 times projected sales (FT), I’m wondering if this will be good for sales?

• FT: Ships carrying missile propellant set to sail from China to Iran, say officials...Intelligence suggests vessels will be laden with sodium perchlorate used in critical weapons. 

• Apartments for $20,000 a month: residents scramble after wildfires deepen LA’s housing crisis. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• Weight-loss jabs linked to reduced risk of 42 conditions including dementia. Range of positive side effects observed among people with diabetes paves way for new treatments

 

• Biden voters passed on Harris because of Gaza, new poll shows.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• HHS Secretary-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s intention to ban high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has reportedly raised concerns among corn farmers.
• Some 8% of U.S. corn is dedicated to HFCS production.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today 

• Microsoft is bundling its AI-powered Office features into Microsoft 365 subscriptions, and it’s raising prices.. 
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• Geoffrey Hinton, otherwise known as the 'Godfather of AI', has predicted that artificial intelligence will make society 'worse and worse' by increasing the wealth gap between the richest and poorest individuals.  

• Ten facts about wealth inequality in the USA 

• Trump begins selling a new crypto token..

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today

• Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries..

• In a steady spectacle of companies retreating from their diversity efforts, Costco Wholesale is standing pat.  
• In the meantime, Walmart is under fire from investors for cutting DEI programs.

Costco

• Canada Readies Tariffs on $105 Billion of US Products If Trump Hits First

• Walgreens' CEO finds that securing merchandise can prevent customers from buying.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Notes today 1/12/2025

 

• Barron’s reports that from 1926 to 2023 Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) turned a buck (1$) into $2.65 Million. 

• Zuckerberg gets rid of independent Facebook and Instagram fact-checkers 

• French media Le Monde reports that EC President Ursula von der Leyen has decided to put on hold the ongoing investigations against Meta, X, and Apple  and not to open any new cases. 

• Inflation in China slowed for the fourth straight month in December, despite the government’s recent efforts to ease deflationary pressure.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Fed Model (aka Dow Trend Earnings)

 

 Later

11/5/2024     10 pm  PT - Markets so far

S&P

Australian Dollar

British Pound

Yen

!0 Year bonds

Gold

Euro

 

  Later