Thursday, March 23, 2023

Notes Today:

  • Moody’s sees risk that US banking turmoil can’t be contained. Well, that does not sound very good. 

  • WSJ: Elon Musk’s Twitter is now a gigantic $13 billion in debt due to advertisers fleeing to “protect their brands” from Twitter’s toxicity. 

  • Yet another crypto dude, Do Kwon, is charged with fraud by US Prosecutors in New York. Could Munger be right and crypto is just an open sewer, full of malicious organisms?

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Notes Today: 

  • US FED raises interest rates for ninth time in a row despite recent banking turmoil. Recognizing "serious problems" in a small number of banks.
  • Trump thinks perp walk in front of cameras might be "FUN." 
  • A new paper argues there’s another way to hold big oil accountable for climate damage: trying companies for homicide. 
  • Ford is about to break out big EV losses for the first time. Ford will begin reporting its financial results by business unit, instead of by region. The changes amount to the most detailed look yet by any legacy automaker into finances behind EV business. 

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Very Interesting Chart:  

Periods When to Make Money














Via https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban  retweeted
Menthor Q@MenthorQpro
This chart is crazy, made in 1875 by Samuel Benner showing periods of panic, good time to sell assets and good times to buy. Mind blowing that he predicted so many events. Really telling. Don’t have the source someone sent it to me.



Sunday, March 19, 2023

 


S&P 500 stocks making 52 week lows
(36)

Instrument Name

Close

Symbol

Advance Auto Parts Ord Shs

119.4

AAP

Alexandria Real Estate Equities REIT Ord Shs

120.87

ARE

Allstate Ord Shs

105.11

ALL

American International Group Ord Shs

47.24

AIG

Assurant Ord Shs

104.92

AIZ

Bank of America Ord Shs

27.82

BAC

Baxter International Ord Shs

37.58

BAX

Boston Properties REIT Ord Shs

51.1

BXP

Camden Property Trust REIT Ord Shs

101.72

CPT

Centene Ord Shs

62.55

CNC

CF Industries Holdings Ord Shs

70.93

CF

CVS Health Ord Shs

74.37

CVS

DISH Network Ord Shs Class A

9.1

DISH.O

DXC Technology Ord Shs

22.92

DXC

Fifth Third Bancorp Ord Shs

24.95

FITB.O

First Republic Bank Ord Shs

23.03

FRC

Healthpeak Properties Ord Shs

20.74

PEAK.K

Hormel Foods Ord Shs

38.35

HRL

Huntington Bancshares Ord Shs

10.34

HBAN.O

Kimco Realty REIT Ord Shs

17.67

KIM

Lincoln National Ord Shs

20.3

LNC

Lumen Technologies Ord Shs

2.48

LUMN.K

M&T Bank Ord Shs

122.5

MTB

MetLife Ord Shs

54.87

MET

Newell Brands Ord Shs

11.39

NWL.O

Norfolk Southern Ord Shs

203.9

NSC

PNC Financial Services Group Ord Shs

123.72

PNC

Prudential Financial Ord Shs

78.02

PRU

Signature Bank Ord Shs

70

SBNY.O

SVB Financial Group Ord Shs

106.04

SIVB.O

Truist Financial Ord Shs

30.56

TFC

US Bancorp Ord Shs

32.95

USB

Westrock Ord Shs

27.07

WRK

Whirlpool Ord Shs

128.45

WHR

Williams Ord Shs

28.3

WMB

Zions Bancorporation Ord Shs

29.94

ZION.O

 


S&P 500 stocks making 52 week highs (3)

ANET.K

Arista Networks Ord Shs

163.26

MKTX.O

MarketAxess Holdings Ord Shs

389.77

NVR

NVR Ord Shs

5503


Notes Today:

  • UBS's $3.3 billion buyout of CS met with a big yawn in the S&P futures market so far.
  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) has stepped up its pace of stock buybacks, repurchasing more than $1.8 billion of its own stock this year.


Gold over the previous hump, only just..




 


Latest Dow Theory prediction








3/19/2022 Samll change in Dow Theory Prediction:
   Returning to bullish view if
   DJIA closes above 34581 "and"
   DJTA closes above 15587

Saturday, March 18, 2023


 Quick Overview is up to date

A Four-Decade Secret: One Man’s Untold Story of Sabotaging Carter’s Re-election
History needs to know that this happened,” Mr. Barnes, who turns 85 next month, said in one of several interviews, his first with a news organization about the episode. “I think it’s so significant and I guess knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and m
ore. I just feel like we’ve got to get it down some way.”
Better late than never!

Notes Today:

  • Trump claims he ‘will be arrested’ on Tuesday in New York criminal case..
  • After a pretty epic and  awful 12 months, crypto evangelists are enjoying a moment – what could go wrong?
  • First Republic Bank (FRC) was cut to junk by S&P Global  and Fitch












  • Reminder: Under Trump, banks  with less than $250bn in assets (SVB -FRC) werefreed from the tightest regulatory scrutiny.





Friday, March 17, 2023

Thursday, March 16, 2023

 

Notes Today:

 

  • Pornhub acquired … Ethical Venture bought them. No joke!

  • Credit Suisse is exercising an option to borrow $53.75 billion (CHF 50 billion) from the Swiss National Bank - to stay afloat. 

  • Goldman raised US recession probability to 35% on banking stress – I would put it a bit higher 50%? 

  • March 16 (Reuters) - Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX made transfers of about $2.2 billion to company founder Sam Bankman-Fried through related entities, the company's new management said. (Btw, why is this dude  out on no money down bail? - remarkable)
  • The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, snapped its 19-session winning streak on Thursday, weighed by weakness in the capesize and panamax segments. 

    The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, lost 43 points, or about 2.7%, to 1,560 – its biggest dip since Feb. 15. 

    The capesize index lost 128 points, or about 6.1%, to 1,976. 

    Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased $1,066 to $16,387. 

    Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures slumped on Thursday, along with steel benchmarks in China as sentiment soured, mirroring a broader risk aversion triggered by fears of a banking crisis.  (Helllenic Shipping)

 

 Vacant US office space



Wednesday, March 15, 2023

 

Notes today:

  • Deploying regulators: Treasury department reviewing us bank exposure to credit swiss..
  • Credit Swisse: Today’s 24% share price decline eclipses even the worst days of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (weekly chart)
  • Probability of default is 47% - so says the market (CDS).



  • "There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen" Warren Buffett 
  • With more cockroaches making an appearance, could gold perhaps  take out the previous hump?




  • Tuesday, March 14, 2023


    Regulators have been warning for some time of the myriad crypto risks seeping into the mainstream banking system, comparing them 
    directly to the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage market that incentivized greed, exploited regulatory arbitrage and eventually led to the 2008 economic meltdown. 

    Monday, March 13, 2023

     

    Notes today:

    Lawrence H. Summers on CNN: SVB committed one of the most elementary errors in banking: borrowing money in the short term and investing in the long term. When interest rates went up, the assets lost their value and put the institution in a problematic situation. 

    Quite true Larry, however borrowing short and lending long is what banks always do and have always done - it’s the only thing banks seem to know how to do. (see banking and commercial real estate)


    Perhaps the Fed (and the regulation opposing dudes) could make sure that all banks have a risk manager in "place" (and not  across the country away from the rest of SVB’s top fools) that understands duration and conceivably even understands how to hedge a bond portfolio. Perhaps someone could point these risk managers to the futures exchanges.

    This stuff is learnable. 

    • In a case that starkly illustrates the deadly consequences that the US’s permissive gun culture has on the country’s youth, a three-year-old girl accidentally shot her four-year-old sister to death in their Texas home late on Sunday, according to authorities.
    • Biden approves controversial Willow oil drilling project in Alaska.👎

    Sunday, March 12, 2023

     

    Notes today:
    • Recession may arrive sooner than anticipated..

    • First Republic (FRC) down more than 60% in premarket trading as measures taken by regulators so far fail to calm investors.

    • Silicon Valley Bank's depositors are helped, equity and bondholders are being wiped out. 

    • Signature Bank (crypto scheme focused) closed by regulators ..

    • Former board member 

    •   

    • Ayn Rand  - not so popular in silicon valley today.. But no worries, welfare for adherents,

      hypocrites and frauds -  continues...

    • The decision of the Swiss authorities to destroy decommissioned but fully operational and not obsolete air defence systems instead of deliver/sell them to Ukraine is like a decision to destroy bread amid famine. It is way more than just coldness or lack of empathy. It is cruelty. Sergej Sumlenny @sumlenny

     


    Billions Worth of Crypto Trades at Risk as Bank Shutdowns Take Toll...

    Crypto: I just avoid it as if it were an open sewer, full of malicious organisms,” Munger said in an interview with the Australian Financial Review.

     


    Quick Overview is up to date


    • Silicon Valley Bank chief pressed Congress to weaken risk regulations ðŸ˜«Touting “SVB’s deep understanding of the markets it serves, our strong risk management practices”.....

    • German banks also suffering due to SVBC collapse. German Bank index at 1980 levels..