Sugar: Weather woes have triggered downward revisions in the Center-South production estimates to levels as low as 490 million metric tons, a 19% decline versus the previous crop. In the second half of July, sugar content in cane declined in the region from a year ago, while cane yield dropped 18%, the nation’s sugar-cane industry group Unica said in report Tuesday. 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Business groups were eager to start giving to Sedition Caucus members in the wake of the January 6th.

The flow of money from corporate PACs and industry groups to political committees allied with the Sedition Caucus started just days after the insurrection, and within the first few months after the deadly attack, their total contributions had already climbed into the millions of dollars.

Austin warns of ‘catastrophe’ as Texas again becomes center of pandemic

Meanwhile, local officials who want to implement proven public health measures to mitigate the spread have been hamstrung by the Texas governor, Greg Abbott, 

who has implemented a sweeping order restricting vaccine and mask mandates.

With the Continental Army constantly threatened by smallpox, Washington ordered all soldiers to be inoculated. It was good enough for George Washington!

CODE RED: United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has just proclaimed a code red for humanity.” The unequivocal consensus of the world’s top climate scientists—unveiled in a landmark report Monday—is that not only are humans responsible for the catastrophes befalling the atmosphere, the oceans, the ice packs and the forests, but that without drastic moves by the planet’s leaders to eliminate greenhouse gas pollution, things are going to get a lot worse, and quite soon. (Blooomberg)

 US Share buybacks very strong!

..investing more and more at higher and higher prices as our confidence increases...

and round and round it goes.

Notes today:

•  Investor morale in the euro zone fell in August to a three-month low on a sharp drop in expectations due to concerns that new lockdown restrictions could loom in the autumn and beyond, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix’s index for the euro zone fell to 22.2 points in August from 29.8 in July. 

• Economists and financial professionals are at least 20 times more likely to believe that climate risk is underestimated by asset markets as opposed to overestimated. 

• The Dallas Independent School District on Monday announced that "to protect staff and students from the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus, Dallas ISD is temporarily requiring all staff, students and visitors to wear masks when on district property."👍
• 
  
  The decision is in direct opposition to Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott's (R) ban on mask mandates in public schools and government entities in the state. Abbott announced the ban in May, saying that any government entity that required people to wear masks would face fines of up to $1,000 per offense.👎

Florida COVID cases in the news - again!
Entirely preventable

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” — Albert Einstein

 Moderna (MRNA) today (so far)

Major climate changes inevitable and irreversible – IPCC’s starkest warning yet

Florida in the news again!

• The worse COVID conditions in Florida become, the more Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) balks at policies designed to help address the pandemic. 

• COVID cases are surging so much in Florida now that if Florida was a separate country the US would ban travel from it. (Robert Reich)

• Florida will take a stand against a federal judge's decision to side with the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. lawsuit challenging the state's vaccine passports ban, according to a spokeswoman for the Florida governor's DeSantis office.  

• If COVID could vote DeSantis would be Governor for life - and beyond!

Gold recovering nicely from a flash crash that had dropped the price by some $80 +

Argentina’s Soybean Super-Highway is Drying Up

Snaking its way through thousands of miles of South American rainforest and pampas and past sprawling soybean and corn farms, the Parana River is the main thoroughfare for Argentine commerce. Some 80% of the country’s crop exports flow through its muddy waters en route to the Atlantic Ocean.

(Reuters) - China has switched from driving global demand for major commodities to being a drag on growth, with July's customs data confirming the weakening trend for imports of crude oil, iron ore and copper.

Gold, checking out the recent lows on a slow Sunday afternoon...

I suppose the market is betting on early Fed taper.

Silver  does not seem to have liked  it BELOW the recent low - so far...

 US core inflation exeeding expectations  MoM...

BoA's view of  Emerging Markets vs S&P500

Sugar:

Brazil has been hit with an unusually harsh winter with temperatures dropping to freezing levels for several days, hurting crops from corn to coffee and sugar cane. The frost follows one of the country's worst droughts in decades.

Therefore, StoneX now sees the global 2021/22 sugar supply balance swinging to a deficit of 1 million tonnes, from a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes seen in May.

And Karim Salamon, Wilmar Sugar head of analysis, said that the widespread frosts will result in lower agricultural yields leading to a cane crush of around 490-500 million tons. Brazil's CS crushed 605 million tons last season.

Wheat:

The U.S. spring wheat harvest is expected to drop 41% from a year ago to the lowest production in 33 years, according to the USDA

Canada’s spring wheat crop is expected at between 16 and 20 million tons, well off last year’s 25.8 million

Minneapolis

 

Portland

Chicago

Kansas City

Notes today:

• There are about 31,000 new cases every day in the U.K., but that’s not stopping Boris Johnson from plowing full steam ahead with reopening. 

• China state media criticized video games as “spiritual opium,” ...  It seems that Beijing is worried about where the huge flows of hot money are going and is afraid it will create rival power centers. 

• Joe Biden set a goal for electric vehicles to make up half of all vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030, and Detroit automakers are taking it seriously.

• 
  
  July was the worst month for wildfires on record, as large areas in North America, Siberia, Africa and the Mediterranean continue to burn.

• Governor of State Leading Nation in Kids Hospitalized with Covid Fights to Ban School Mask Mandates

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has decided to sacrifice Florida’s children on the altar of personal freedom..

Swiss central bank owns record $162 billion of U.S. stocks

..the gnomes at work

Relatively minor meltdowns might destroy underwater cables and disrupt vital industries, scientists say, creating a cascade of economic misery.

I just kept thinking, they're all in the same places—all of these systems converge,” says social volcanologist Lara Mani, of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (imagine their water cooler chitchat) at the University of Cambridge, lead author on the new paper. “And that's terrifying. Why has no one mentioned this before?”

 Two-thirds of the job gain was in food services and bars.

U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.4

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today: 

• (Bloomberg) A huge melting event in Greenland and reports that an ocean system critical to global climate may soon stall were just two of the growing number of grim daily stories about accelerating global warming. 
• (Guardian) Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse.
• Facebook  failed to enforce its own rules to curb an oil and gas industry misinformation campaign over the climate crisis during last year’s presidential election, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.

• 
  
  (Bloomberg) But on Wall Street, the future looks bright. Goldman Sachs strategists lifted their outlook for the S&P 500 Index as robust earnings growth and low interest rates fuel optimism that stocks can continue rallying despite record high levels. 

• Cryptocurrencies are not yet a threat to the financial system, but the dangers are growing

• Since the late 1990s, the U.S. hasbeen partying and forgetting about tomorrow, cashing out its inheritance from 20th century investments. 

 

 

Meanwhile a Fact of the day: In 2004 a piece of gum spat out by Britney Spears, a former popstar, was auctioned on eBay for $14,000. Read the full article. (Economist)

 

•  (LAT) In a sign of the region’s worsening drought, state water officials announced Thursday the shutdown of a major hydroelectric power plant at Lake Oroville in Northern California, citing the lowest-ever recorded water level at the reservoir.

• Particularly hawkish Brazil Central Bank raises interest rates by 1% to 5.25%, the most in a session since 2003 on inflation fears. 

• Sea freight rates from Santos Brazil to China nearly tripled YoY, from US$ 28/mt a year ago to US$ 80/mt.

 

 

Later

Covid is remarkably efficient in finding vulnerabilities…

 Presidents and GDP growth:  As expected Trump is bringing up the rear.

Since I have no idea of what I speak this is for entertainment purposes only – as always!

In 1975 Brazil had a severe frost and coffee prices started to rise – reaching $3.399 in April 1977. 

In July of 2021 Brazil had another frost (severity to be determined) and coffee prices started to rise. Using the US CPI Index, the value of $3 in 1977 would be the equivalent of $15 today.

Coffee CPI adjusted

Coffee long term

Coffee recent

Coffee Point & Figure

 Bullish Advisors 

 Market Vane

Notes today:

• Per the SEC: China based companies will have to disclose more about their structure and contacts with the Chinese government before listing in the U.S. 

• Normally a container will go from the factory in Shanghai to Chicago in 35 days. Currently it takes up to 73 days – and then the container will go back usually empty. 

• “We have to protect our mind and body rather than go out there and do what the world wants us to do” Simone Biles 

• “In today’s world, economic access and full citizenship depend crucially on math and science literacy” Bob Moses 

• Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft had quarterly after-tax profits of $56.8bn, almost up 100% 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) reported 56% rise in 2^nd quarter revenues.