US core inflation exeeding expectations  MoM...

BoA's view of  Emerging Markets vs S&P500

Sugar:

Brazil has been hit with an unusually harsh winter with temperatures dropping to freezing levels for several days, hurting crops from corn to coffee and sugar cane. The frost follows one of the country's worst droughts in decades.

Therefore, StoneX now sees the global 2021/22 sugar supply balance swinging to a deficit of 1 million tonnes, from a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes seen in May.

And Karim Salamon, Wilmar Sugar head of analysis, said that the widespread frosts will result in lower agricultural yields leading to a cane crush of around 490-500 million tons. Brazil's CS crushed 605 million tons last season.

Wheat:

The U.S. spring wheat harvest is expected to drop 41% from a year ago to the lowest production in 33 years, according to the USDA

Canada’s spring wheat crop is expected at between 16 and 20 million tons, well off last year’s 25.8 million

Minneapolis

 

Portland

Chicago

Kansas City

Notes today:

• There are about 31,000 new cases every day in the U.K., but that’s not stopping Boris Johnson from plowing full steam ahead with reopening. 

• China state media criticized video games as “spiritual opium,” ...  It seems that Beijing is worried about where the huge flows of hot money are going and is afraid it will create rival power centers. 

• Joe Biden set a goal for electric vehicles to make up half of all vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030, and Detroit automakers are taking it seriously.

• 
  
  July was the worst month for wildfires on record, as large areas in North America, Siberia, Africa and the Mediterranean continue to burn.

• Governor of State Leading Nation in Kids Hospitalized with Covid Fights to Ban School Mask Mandates

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has decided to sacrifice Florida’s children on the altar of personal freedom..

Swiss central bank owns record $162 billion of U.S. stocks

..the gnomes at work

Relatively minor meltdowns might destroy underwater cables and disrupt vital industries, scientists say, creating a cascade of economic misery.

I just kept thinking, they're all in the same places—all of these systems converge,” says social volcanologist Lara Mani, of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (imagine their water cooler chitchat) at the University of Cambridge, lead author on the new paper. “And that's terrifying. Why has no one mentioned this before?”

 Two-thirds of the job gain was in food services and bars.

U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.4

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today: 

• (Bloomberg) A huge melting event in Greenland and reports that an ocean system critical to global climate may soon stall were just two of the growing number of grim daily stories about accelerating global warming. 
• (Guardian) Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse.
• Facebook  failed to enforce its own rules to curb an oil and gas industry misinformation campaign over the climate crisis during last year’s presidential election, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.

• 
  
  (Bloomberg) But on Wall Street, the future looks bright. Goldman Sachs strategists lifted their outlook for the S&P 500 Index as robust earnings growth and low interest rates fuel optimism that stocks can continue rallying despite record high levels. 

• Cryptocurrencies are not yet a threat to the financial system, but the dangers are growing

• Since the late 1990s, the U.S. hasbeen partying and forgetting about tomorrow, cashing out its inheritance from 20th century investments. 

 

 

Meanwhile a Fact of the day: In 2004 a piece of gum spat out by Britney Spears, a former popstar, was auctioned on eBay for $14,000. Read the full article. (Economist)

 

•  (LAT) In a sign of the region’s worsening drought, state water officials announced Thursday the shutdown of a major hydroelectric power plant at Lake Oroville in Northern California, citing the lowest-ever recorded water level at the reservoir.

• Particularly hawkish Brazil Central Bank raises interest rates by 1% to 5.25%, the most in a session since 2003 on inflation fears. 

• Sea freight rates from Santos Brazil to China nearly tripled YoY, from US$ 28/mt a year ago to US$ 80/mt.

 

 

Later

Covid is remarkably efficient in finding vulnerabilities…

 Presidents and GDP growth:  As expected Trump is bringing up the rear.

Since I have no idea of what I speak this is for entertainment purposes only – as always!

In 1975 Brazil had a severe frost and coffee prices started to rise – reaching $3.399 in April 1977. 

In July of 2021 Brazil had another frost (severity to be determined) and coffee prices started to rise. Using the US CPI Index, the value of $3 in 1977 would be the equivalent of $15 today.

Coffee CPI adjusted

Coffee long term

Coffee recent

Coffee Point & Figure

 Bullish Advisors 

 Market Vane

Notes today:

• Per the SEC: China based companies will have to disclose more about their structure and contacts with the Chinese government before listing in the U.S. 

• Normally a container will go from the factory in Shanghai to Chicago in 35 days. Currently it takes up to 73 days – and then the container will go back usually empty. 

• “We have to protect our mind and body rather than go out there and do what the world wants us to do” Simone Biles 

• “In today’s world, economic access and full citizenship depend crucially on math and science literacy” Bob Moses 

• Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft had quarterly after-tax profits of $56.8bn, almost up 100% 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) reported 56% rise in 2^nd quarter revenues. 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

•  (AP) — (Florida in the News "again"👎👎) Florida has reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19, the state’s highest one-day total since the start of the pandemic, according to federal health data released Saturday.

  The state has become the new national epicenter for the virus, accounting for around a fifth of all new cases in the U.S.

• Oklahoma GOP likens vaccine mandates to persecution of Jews

• A nationwide eviction moratorium is set to expire Saturday night ..

• China's Manufacturing PMI 50.3 in July 2021, expected 50.8, previous 50.9

• Interesting (crummy) month end price action in coffee. Nevertheless, Brazil’s upcoming 2022/23 coffee output has noticeably been reduced by dryness and cold weather. 
• 
  
  
  
  
• Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC “. . .just say that the election was corrupt + leave the rest to me. . .” — Translated from the original German

• California has mandated electrical wiring for EV chargers in its new-home building codes since 2015, the rest of the U.S. has no requirements.

• At the beginning of next year, California will begin enforcing an animal welfare proposition approved overwhelmingly by voters in 2018 that requires more space for breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens and veal calves.👍👍