Notes today: 

• China tries to ease market fears after Beijing’s education crackdown. Well, their stock indexes are on the brink of a bear market. (weekly chart)
  
  

• The Senate voted 67-32 to move forward on the bipartisan infrastructure package.

• U.S. equities rose and yields rose after the Fed held interest rates near zero and Powell said that despite the economy’s progress, he was still “a ways away” from raising them. 

• Revenue growth at MSFT's Azure cloud unit accelerated past 50% in the three months through June.. 
  
  
  

• (MW) Some three in five U.S. adults support vaccination requirements for employees, residents or customers by employers; businesses; schools; and local, state and federal governments, according to new data from a Morning Consult poll conducted July 22 to July 24. 

• “He’s such a moron,” Pelosi said while getting into her SUV outside the Capitol, when asked about the House minority leader. 

• Ford said, business is picking up, and that it has received more than 120,000 reservations for the vehicle since its debut in May. Of which, about 75%, or 90,000, are new to Ford, according to the company.

Brazilian Arabica coffee (/KC) prices declined a bit amid speculation that a looming cold snap in Brazil might be less damaging to crops than originally expected.

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:  

• CDC to revise mask guidance for vaccinated people as US Covid cases rise..
• Officials reviewed yesterday showing that vaxxed ppl infected with delta have the same viral load as unvaxxed. Vaccinated are still far less likely to get seriously sick, but the data suggests they can transmit delta. (WP)

• S&P’s Case-Shiller index of property values rose 16.6% YoY in May, that was the 12th straight month that prices rose.
• Single-family home leasing company Invitation Homes (INVH) has signed an agreement to purchase 7,500 new homes  built by PulteGroup (PHM) over the next five years.

• U.S. Consumer confidence index rose to 129.1 in July from 128.9 in June.

• Coronavirus latest: Indian deaths could be above 3 million, study says (Bloomberg) 

• Less than 10 %t of Minnesota’s spring wheat acres are considered good to excellent, oat condition declined to 22 % good to excellent, and only 15 % of barley is good to excellent.

 Latest Sugar and Coffee

 FXI China large-cap ETF looking troubled..

Beijing’s  crackdowns of its technology and education sectors has unleashed shockwaves across global markets..

 

Notes today:

• A new polar air mass is set to move over Brazil's agricultural areas this week, on Thursday and Friday, threatening further damage to coffee and sugar cane crops already hurt by previous strong frosts.

• Skeptical inquirer: Once dismissed as just another set of wacky conspiracy theories from the internet, the phenomenon known as QAnon has grown into a malignant force, infecting minds with dangerous fictions and amassing real power.

• New-home sales drop 6.6% in June to 676,000 annual rate.

• Floods in central China, especially in the industrial and transport hub city of Zhengzhou in Henan province, have raised supply concerns and demand for rebuilding damaged infrastructure – so Copper is up.

  
  
  

German Pruducer prices (PPI) up 8.5% 

 

As food prices soar, big agriculture is having a field day

Even as demand for crops has surged, a confluence of factors has conspired to squeeze global supply. Droughts in North and South America have curtailed output. Brazil’s winter-wheat harvest is down by a fifth—and that fifth was meant for export. Besides the container shortage that affects specialty crops such as coffee, the grounding of commercial flights is stranding fresh fruit and vegetables. Rising bulk-shipping rates, up by 150% this year, are adding to the squeeze. 

 Cotton Point & Figure

 Sugar Point & Figure

 Coffee Point & Figure

MAUREEN DOWD 

succinctly summed up

As the planet sizzles, many Americans have gone from not caring to glazing over, from indifference to fatigue.

The U.S. isn’t ready for more variants

There’s such scant funding for mutation surveillance that one lab in Minnesota with equipment, staff and protocols in place since the beginning of the pandemic spent over a year applying for grants. It even went so far as to try crowd-funding to start doing sequencing. The lab sat underused for all of that time, despite a widespread consensus that mutation hunting is critical work necessary to ending this pandemic and preventing future ones.

 OJ, another one in new high ground..

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

Under one, termed business as usual, or BAU2, growth would stall and combine with population collapse. The other, termed comprehensive technology (CT), modeled stalled economic growth without social collapse. Both scenarios “show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study says, adding, that “pursuing continuous growth, is not possible.”

Sustainability is the answer, she says.

Herbert Stein "Trends that can't continue won't." in 1974

# of civilian Planes currently in the air..

 Quick Overview is up to date

Miami is hot—especially if you are selling a home.

Some 2.8m households, containing 7.4m Americans, are behind with the rent. Meanwhile, 1.9m households, in which 6m Americans live, are behind on their mortgages

As moratoriums lift, will America face a wave of foreclosures and evictions?

 Herd Immunity    The Failanx

Notes today: 

• The “must” read obituary of Esther Bejarano in the Economist. 

• Malaysian palm oil futures climbed over 3% on Friday, posting a fifth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by strong demand from top buyer India. October delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 134 ringgit, or 3.25%, to 4,255 ringgit ($1,007.10) a tonne

• The Republican governor of Alabama has said it is “time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks” for rising cases of Covid.

• A conservative radio host in Tennessee who urged listeners not to get vaccinated against Covid-19 has changed track and called on listeners to get the shot, after contracting the virus and ending up in hospital in “very serious condition”.

• Republican lawmakers across more than a dozen states are working to limit the powers of local health departments in ways experts say is likely to lead to “preventable tragedies” during disease outbreaks, including the Covid-19 pandemic.. an infection control measure used since at least the plague, known as the “Black Death”, hit Italian cities in the 14th century. 

• Ridiculous’: Vaccine Myths Cripple U.S. Uptake as Delta Surges. The excuses range from the merely false to the absurd. The shots don’t work. They impair fertility. They’ll alter your DNA. They’ll magnetize you. They actually spread the virus.

• Will you get a covid vaccine? 

• 

• UFB: A  federal appeals ct reversed its previous ruling and reinstated Florida's law refusing cruise ships ability to require vaccination for passengers.  This when unvaccinated account for 99% of current US fatalities..

Brazil coffee frost sparks default fears, 

crop recovery may take years

An unusual cold snap here, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop.

Oats supposedly know. Do they?

 

Notes Today:

• Twitter Inc.  reported that it added 7 million users in three months, helping revenue jump 74%. (Must be all my tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeting)

• 

• U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to 419,000

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill that would strip online platforms such as Facebook (AKA the Plague on Humanity) and Twitter  of liability protections if their technology spreads misinformation about coronavirus vaccines or other public-health emergencies. What about YouTube?
• In the U.S., where vaccinations, testing and the use of masks are on the decline, delta accounts for roughly 83% of positive Covid cases — and the surge shows no signs of abating.
• True to form, Mike Parson Republican Governor of Missouri, claims George Soros is to blame for news reports of spiking Covid in his state. 

• Facebook (AKA the "creepy" Plague on Humanity) has come under fire on social media for being “creepy” after admitting that its controversial new prayer feature uses data collected from the ‘thoughts and prayers’ of its more religious users to create personalized ads.

Sugar and dry bulk

The Brazilian sugarcane crop has been moving at a slower pace compared with the prior 2020-21 crop cycle, as the current crop has been suffering the effects of severe dry conditions.

As a reference, sugar production from April 1 to July 1 added 12.2 million tons, down 8.16%, or nearly 1.1 million tons, year on year.

Despite the scenario of reduced sugar production and strong concerns about further crop losses, the wide carry strategy has triggered the collapse in the Brazilian cash premium to prompt shipment.

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• The World Health Organization contends that the coronavirus can be beaten by mid-2022—if the world is vaccinated - IF!

• FT: ‘One law of physics still holds: the warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. The more moisture, the more rain.’ 

• Bloomberg reports the number of rail cars unloading grain at the Port of Vancouver the first week of July fell 77% YoY as wildfires hamper rail movement. Smoke from wildfires in the west caused hazy skies as air quality index surged to 157 in Manhattan, well above threshold of 100..

• The G20 countries have provided more than $3.3tn (£2.4tn) in subsidies for fossil fuels since the Paris climate agreement was sealed in 2015, despite many committing to tackle the crisis. Australia increased its fossil fuel subsidies by 48% over the period, Canada’s support rose by 40% and that from the US by 37%.

• McCarthy, trying to discredit house committee, says that Republicans will now form their own team… “to investigate the insurrection"… that members of their own party incited.
• Liz Cheney (👍Republican) on the Jan. 6 select committee: "This investigation must go forward. The idea that anybody would be playing politics with an attack on the United States Capitol is despicable and disgraceful."👍

• 1000+ coal miners in Alabama have been on strike for over 100 days and neither CNN, Fox News, nor MSNBC has made a single mention of it on air. (Robert Reich)

• Republicans signal major fight coming on debt ceiling. $28.5 trillion debt was added to the national debt during Trump – now they want democrats to figure out how to pay for it.

• The CME now has a micro-Crude contract. Symbol mcl and it is 100 barrels. 1/10 the regular contract.

• British Columbia declared a state of emergency  as the fires snarl transportation and supply chains. Lumber futures rose. However do-it-yourself renovation demand has dropped by a reported 40% at big-box retailers.

Coffee breaking out quite decisively..so far..

Dealers said Brazil's coffee crop, which is still flowering, could have lost 1-2 million bags due to the frosts, (Minas Gerais the coldest since 1994) which hit key coffee growing areas like Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states.

Notes today: 

• Central Chinese province swamped after heaviest rain in 1,000 years

• Housing starts rose 6.3% 
• Single-family starts rose 6.3%
• Multi-family homebuilding category rose 6.2%
• YoY starts increased 29.1% 
• Permits fell 5.1%  the lowest level since October 2020. Permits are now lagging starts, suggesting that homebuilding will slow in the coming months.
• (Zillow) Reports of multi-month delays in the delivery of windows, heating units, refrigerators and other items have popped up across the country, delaying delivery of homes and forcing builders to cap activity, and many builders continue to point to a shortage of available workers as a separate challenge.

• China responded with outrage after America and its closest allies accused its security agencies of hacking on a grand scale. “A malicious smear”, said China.

• FT: Nasdaq to spin out exchange for private businesses in deal with banks

Spring Wheat conditions (via Stonex)

Quick Overview is up to date 

The delta variant continues to spread and the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the past seven days spiked to nearly 317,000, up 43% over the previous week!

 

An exponential increase!!

 

Later

All Charts are up to date.

One more time: U.S. Inflation and Fed Funds.

What’s going to give, Inflation or Fed Funds?

Majority of Covid misinformation came from 12 people, report finds

CCDH finds ‘disinformation dozen’ have combined following of 59 million people across multiple social media platforms.

I remember well when the CPI first hit 5%, and the Fed called it "transitory" and rates went to 13%. I also remember Sugar going from some 2 cents to 66 cents. Funny thing history - much to remember...

Below Fed Funds Rate minus CPI

 And the latest Covid leaders are? Florida "leading" and Texas!

As Covid cases rise in Florida, Governor DeSantis digs at Fauci with merchandise .. But perhaps the merchandise with the best sales potential are the drink koozies and T-shirts that say “Don’t Fauci My Florida”.

• Joe Biden and Facebook (FB the plague on humanity) engaged in a testy spat about misinformation, as America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention described a surging covid-19 caseload with 99.5% of new patients unvaccinated.

 

It’s all mostly luck!

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. 

Quick Overview is up to date