Brazil coffee frost sparks default fears, 

crop recovery may take years

An unusual cold snap here, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop.

Oats supposedly know. Do they?

 

Notes Today:

• Twitter Inc.  reported that it added 7 million users in three months, helping revenue jump 74%. (Must be all my tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeting)

• 

• U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to 419,000

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill that would strip online platforms such as Facebook (AKA the Plague on Humanity) and Twitter  of liability protections if their technology spreads misinformation about coronavirus vaccines or other public-health emergencies. What about YouTube?
• In the U.S., where vaccinations, testing and the use of masks are on the decline, delta accounts for roughly 83% of positive Covid cases — and the surge shows no signs of abating.
• True to form, Mike Parson Republican Governor of Missouri, claims George Soros is to blame for news reports of spiking Covid in his state. 

• Facebook (AKA the "creepy" Plague on Humanity) has come under fire on social media for being “creepy” after admitting that its controversial new prayer feature uses data collected from the ‘thoughts and prayers’ of its more religious users to create personalized ads.

Sugar and dry bulk

The Brazilian sugarcane crop has been moving at a slower pace compared with the prior 2020-21 crop cycle, as the current crop has been suffering the effects of severe dry conditions.

As a reference, sugar production from April 1 to July 1 added 12.2 million tons, down 8.16%, or nearly 1.1 million tons, year on year.

Despite the scenario of reduced sugar production and strong concerns about further crop losses, the wide carry strategy has triggered the collapse in the Brazilian cash premium to prompt shipment.

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• The World Health Organization contends that the coronavirus can be beaten by mid-2022—if the world is vaccinated - IF!

• FT: ‘One law of physics still holds: the warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. The more moisture, the more rain.’ 

• Bloomberg reports the number of rail cars unloading grain at the Port of Vancouver the first week of July fell 77% YoY as wildfires hamper rail movement. Smoke from wildfires in the west caused hazy skies as air quality index surged to 157 in Manhattan, well above threshold of 100..

• The G20 countries have provided more than $3.3tn (£2.4tn) in subsidies for fossil fuels since the Paris climate agreement was sealed in 2015, despite many committing to tackle the crisis. Australia increased its fossil fuel subsidies by 48% over the period, Canada’s support rose by 40% and that from the US by 37%.

• McCarthy, trying to discredit house committee, says that Republicans will now form their own team… “to investigate the insurrection"… that members of their own party incited.
• Liz Cheney (👍Republican) on the Jan. 6 select committee: "This investigation must go forward. The idea that anybody would be playing politics with an attack on the United States Capitol is despicable and disgraceful."👍

• 1000+ coal miners in Alabama have been on strike for over 100 days and neither CNN, Fox News, nor MSNBC has made a single mention of it on air. (Robert Reich)

• Republicans signal major fight coming on debt ceiling. $28.5 trillion debt was added to the national debt during Trump – now they want democrats to figure out how to pay for it.

• The CME now has a micro-Crude contract. Symbol mcl and it is 100 barrels. 1/10 the regular contract.

• British Columbia declared a state of emergency  as the fires snarl transportation and supply chains. Lumber futures rose. However do-it-yourself renovation demand has dropped by a reported 40% at big-box retailers.

Coffee breaking out quite decisively..so far..

Dealers said Brazil's coffee crop, which is still flowering, could have lost 1-2 million bags due to the frosts, (Minas Gerais the coldest since 1994) which hit key coffee growing areas like Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states.

Notes today: 

• Central Chinese province swamped after heaviest rain in 1,000 years

• Housing starts rose 6.3% 
• Single-family starts rose 6.3%
• Multi-family homebuilding category rose 6.2%
• YoY starts increased 29.1% 
• Permits fell 5.1%  the lowest level since October 2020. Permits are now lagging starts, suggesting that homebuilding will slow in the coming months.
• (Zillow) Reports of multi-month delays in the delivery of windows, heating units, refrigerators and other items have popped up across the country, delaying delivery of homes and forcing builders to cap activity, and many builders continue to point to a shortage of available workers as a separate challenge.

• China responded with outrage after America and its closest allies accused its security agencies of hacking on a grand scale. “A malicious smear”, said China.

• FT: Nasdaq to spin out exchange for private businesses in deal with banks

Spring Wheat conditions (via Stonex)

Quick Overview is up to date 

The delta variant continues to spread and the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the past seven days spiked to nearly 317,000, up 43% over the previous week!

 

An exponential increase!!

 

Later

All Charts are up to date.

One more time: U.S. Inflation and Fed Funds.

What’s going to give, Inflation or Fed Funds?

Majority of Covid misinformation came from 12 people, report finds

CCDH finds ‘disinformation dozen’ have combined following of 59 million people across multiple social media platforms.

I remember well when the CPI first hit 5%, and the Fed called it "transitory" and rates went to 13%. I also remember Sugar going from some 2 cents to 66 cents. Funny thing history - much to remember...

Below Fed Funds Rate minus CPI

 And the latest Covid leaders are? Florida "leading" and Texas!

As Covid cases rise in Florida, Governor DeSantis digs at Fauci with merchandise .. But perhaps the merchandise with the best sales potential are the drink koozies and T-shirts that say “Don’t Fauci My Florida”.

• Joe Biden and Facebook (FB the plague on humanity) engaged in a testy spat about misinformation, as America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention described a surging covid-19 caseload with 99.5% of new patients unvaccinated.

 

It’s all mostly luck!

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Lumber keeps on crashing. 

Home Depot etc. evidently still not buying. Deflation?