Economist: The world’s consumers are sitting on a pile of cash. Will they spend it?

Households do not usually save on such a scale during recessions. For one thing, their incomes usually fall, as their pay is cut or they lose their jobs. But governments in the rich world have spent 5% of their combined GDP on furlough schemes, unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques during the pandemic. As a result, household incomes have actually risen in the past year.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• Gold is trying to wake up -  it’s up 2% to $1708 

• Reserve Bank of Australia chief Philip Lowe repeats that interest rates are unlikely to rise until at least 2024 as inflation is a long way from goal.

• Hackers breach thousands of security cameras, exposing tesla, jails, hospitals..

• The Baltic Exchange's rose for the sixth straight session - up 2.6% to 1,901. 
• The Capesize index, rose 6.8% to 1,950.
• The Supramax index rose 36 points to 1,969.
• The Panamax is down a bit to 2,238.
• Asian shipping container shortage - continues.

• Business confidence in India is at at decade high of 74.2  up from 70.2

• The number of China-Europe freight trains hit 1,165 in January, up 66 % YoY. 
• Some 9.97 million pieces of anti-epidemic supplies, weighing 80,000 tonnes, have been sent to European countries including Germany, Poland and Belgium by the trains since the epidemic outbreak.

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Has Zero Intrinsic Value. Some People Are OK With That

Soybeans and sturdy shoes are looking better and better by comparison. 

Tulips anyone?

 

Steve Freed regarding USDA report

Quo Vadis Beans? Reminiscent of the early 70s ..

 

Alan Greenspan's favorite indicator at 5  + year high - despite Covid.

 EU carbon Price on the move. 

The European Union is considering curbs on speculation in the world’s biggest carbon market where record prices have lured hedge funds in search of profits.

 Saturday Night Music:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88LNk-_Tfr8

Quick Overview is up to date 

Zero House and Zero Senate  Republicans voted for Covid relief. Zero, not one! R’s really don’t care about you, your family, or your friends – it’s that simple!

Doing a by the seat of pants (unscientific) survey of ATT (T) comments, on several bulletin boards, the remarks appear to be at least 80% negative. Contrarian anyone? Monthly chart below. BTW the yield is around 7%

Notes today:

• US: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2%. The number of unemployed persons, at 10.0 million, also changed little.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that despite the strong job gains last month, Congress still needs to “go big” by passing President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief.

• Musk’s electric carmaker is down more than 30% since its January high, hurting anything associated with it -- most notably Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK). 

  

• Britain’s financial regulators on Friday called a formal halt to nearly all Libor rates from the end of this year, as expected, piling pressure on markets to speed the switch in interest rates used in $260 trillion of contracts around the world. 

• Singapore’s economy has been ranked the freest in the world this year in The Heritage Foundation’s 2021 Index of Economic Freedom, the second year in a row it topped the list. 

• China is aiming for an economic growth rate above 6% in 2021.

• The U.S. trade deficit widened in January as American consumers stepped up purchases of imported products. The deficit in trade of goods and services expanded by 1.9% to $68.2 billion in January - this compares to a  $66.97 billion gap in December. 

VERY Interesting chart from Longview Economics on Commodity cycles relative to S&P.

If you consider down 20% the definition of a bear market - Ark Investment (ARKK) run by high-flier Cathie Wood is now in a bear market. 

Quick Overview is up to date 

Notes today: 

• SCOTUS today: Justice Barrett: What is the interest of the GOP in keeping (laws that suppress minority voters) on the books?

  Republican Lawyer: It puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats. Politics is a zero-sum game.

• 
  Abbott opening Texas100% - a repeat of last spring. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that moves by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and others to lift statewide Covid restrictions showed "Neanderthal thinking." Neanderthals: Hey, we are all wearing masks!

• When asked about market expectations for earlier rate hikes, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that there is still a lot of ground to cover on jobs and inflation. 

• Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first in the country to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. 

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.8 in February up from 58.7 in January, beating market expectations of 58.8. The strongest expansion in factory activity since February of 2018. 

• MoM Construction spending in the US rose 1.7% 

• In response to Navalny’s continued imprisonment,  the US is catching up with sanctions imposed on Moscow by the EU👍👍 - where  Trump had turned a blind eye. 

• YoY Japans Monetary Base came in at 19.6% below forecasts. 

• The unemployment rate in Japan is 2.9%

• Australia keeps its border shut for another three months. 

  

Notes today: 

• Debt investors face a “bleak future:” so says Warren Buffett in his latest letter . Risky debt "is not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.” 

• 
  Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been transferred to a penal colony outside Moscow. 
  

• The $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, all attention is moving to the vote in Senate.. 

• ZD Net: Apple now sells more phones than Samsung.

• The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China dropped to its lowest in a year of 51.4 in February 2021 from 52.4 in the previous month. 

• The official NBS Manufacturing PMI for China fell to 50.6 in February 2021 from 51.3 a month earlier and less than market expectations of 51.1 

• China’s iron ore futures rose its fourth straight week, while steel rebar and hot-rolled coil advanced on higher downstream consumption. Capacity utilization rose to 92.28%. 

• Container shortage slows Indian sugar exports, fuels price rally.

• Iceberg More Than 20 Times the Size of Manhattan Breaks Off Antarctic Ice Shelf

 

 Quick Overview is up to  date

“The Adoration of the Golden Calf,” by Nicolas Poussin, 1633-1634:

and CPAC 2021 A golden Trump (made in Mexico)