Meltdown at Fukushima
The boiling-water reactors at Fukushima — 40 years old and designed by General Electric — have spent fuel pools several stories above ground adjacent to the top of the reactor. The hydrogen explosion may have blown off the roof covering the pool, as it's not under containment. The pool requires water circulation to remove decay heat. If this doesn't happen, the water will evaporate and possibly boil off. If a pool wall or support is compromised, then drainage is a concern. Once the water drops to around 5-6 feet above the assemblies, dose rates could be life-threatening near the reactor building. If significant drainage occurs, after several hours the zirconium cladding around the irradiated uranium could ignite.

Then all bets are off.

Quick Overview

• (FT) AIR, the first of a handful of specialist catastrophe modelling agencies to release its Japan estimate, predicting losses of anything from $15bn to as much as $35bn.

• In coming quarters the quake is likely to mean more demand for copper. Japan accounts for around 5% of global copper demand.

• Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.9% in January.

• The Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 68.2 in March from 77.5 in February.

• China's CPI rose 4.9% YoY in February 2011
  
  
  
  
• Michele Bachmann in a talk given to an audience in New Hampshire said the first shots of the Revolutionary War were fired in their state.
• A state of emergency was declared for all 77 Oklahoma counties as warm, dry winds fanned on the flames. Temperatures soared into the upper 70s on Friday in parts of Oklahoma, which is around 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

• State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley has resigned after he correctly called the Pentagon’s handling of Pfc. Bradley Manning, who is detained at the brig at  Quantico,“ridiculous,counterproductive and stupid.”

• (Xinhuanet) -- A Chinese government adviser has recommended that the country use some of its 2.85 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, to buy more gold.
  Li Yining, a senior economist at Peking University and a CPPCC member, says China should use the precious metal to hedge against risks of foreign currency devaluation.
  Despite many academics making similar calls, an official with the country's foreign exchange administration recently said it wasn't possible for China to make big purchases in the spot gold market. He said that was because the government is afraid of squeezing out ordinary buyers, and pushing up the gold market prices.

• DJ reports up to 20% of Japan's grain may be destroyed

• When asked if the nuclear power accident in Japan could prove to be a turning point for the industry, Immelt (sorry but I’ve got the attention span of a flea) said: "There is now almost a 50-year track record of nuclear power that people can look back on and make their own judgments about."
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Monetary contraction by the EU has set off a fresh spasm of the Eurozone bond crisis

• U.S. first-time jobless claims rise by 26,000

• The USDA estimates:
• US wheat ending stock at 843 million bushels vs 818 last month
• US corn ending stocks at 675 million bushels, unchanged from last month. World ending stocks at 123.1 MMT
• US soy carryout at 140 million bushels. World ending stocks 58.33 MMT.
  
  
• The USDA increased its forecast for Florida's 2010-11 orange crop by four million 90-lb. boxes to 142 million boxes. Each box yields 1.57 gallons.

• Moody's lowered Spain's bond ratings to Aa2 from Aa1

• China posts $7.3 billion trade deficit in Feb.

• The U.S. trade deficit rose15.1% in January to $46.3 billion.

• (Dow Jones)--China is likely to re-enter the copper market as a more significant buyer of the metal in the second quarter, at a time when global supplies are forecast to be in a deficit of 500,000-600,000 metric tons.

• The Bank of England has held rates at 0.5% for the 25th month in a row, despite inflation running at 4% - double the target rate.

• U.S. foreclosure filings dropped to a 3-year low in February.

• Reports of Saudi police firing on protesters added a new worry.

• Starbucks (SBUX) is trading at an all time high.

• FDA  approved Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) Benlysta

No update today

Quick Overview

• Sens. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) introduced a bill that would repeal the 45 cents-per-gallon ethanol tax credit.

• Sleep-Deprived People Make Risky Decisions Based on Too Much Optimism. A night of sleep deprivation leads to increased brain activity in brain regions that assess positive outcomes, while at the same time, this deprivation leads to decreased activation in the brain areas that process negative outcomes, say scientists at two Duke University medical schools.

• The U.S. government has recovered 70% of total Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) disbursements, said the U.S. Treasury Department

• The United States remains the world's largest manufacturing economy, generating 1.6 trillion dollars of output, 11 % of the country's gross domestic product, according to a report. "Industrial restructuring has intensified, making U.S. manufacturing more competitive than ever," said LACEDC Chief Economist Nancy D. Sidhu, the report's author. "The U.S. share of global manufacturing has remained at or above 20 % for most of the past two decades.”It is a myth that manufacturing is disappearing from the region and that all operations are moving to countries with low-cost labor, the report noted.

Oil markets brace for Saudi 'rage' as global spare capacity wears thin
The world's economic fate now hangs on the success of Wahabi repression

Quick Overvview

• Japan’s January core machinery orders rose 4.2% MoM and 5.9% YoY.

• The French trade deficit in January widened to 5.89 billion Euros (8.21 billion U.S. dollars) from 5.6 billion Euros (7.8 billion dollars) in December.

• YoY import cargo volume through major us ports is expected to be up 11 % in March, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker Report.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- China should use economic and administrative measures to curb the production and exports of corn-based products including starch and alcohol, to guarantee supply to livestock and poultry.

• China will boost its meat and sugar reserves and expand the scope of commodities reserves, the Ministry of Commerce said.

• Saudis mobilize thousands of troops to quell growing revolt.

• (Bloomberg) -- Global harvests of corn and wheat may fall short of demand again if the La Nina weather event persists through July, tightening global grain supplies, according to forecaster Telvent DTN Inc.

• (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s ban on grain exports means the country’s farmers will plant the fewest wheat fields in four years.

• (FT) The US Mint has reported record sales of silver American Eagle coins in the past two months. Sales hit 9.7m ounces in January and February combined – more than was sold in an entire year in 2005.

• The U.S unemployment rate fell to 8.9% in February, down from 9.0% the previous month.
  
  
• Moody's downgraded Greece to B1 from Ba1, and kept its outlook negative.

Quick Overview

• Trichet said on Thursday that the ECB may raise interest rates next month due to mounting inflationary pressures

• The global sugar market will be in deficit for a third year said Czarnikow. The shortfall expected is 3.7 million tons.

• The U.S. Energy Department said crude oil inventories fell 364,000 barrels to 346.4 million.

• First time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 368,000 in the week ending Feb. 26.

• MoM retail trade volume in the Eurozone gained 0.4 % in January

Next Update Thursday (THINKING)

I Can’t Think!
The Twitterization of our culture has revolutionized our lives, but with an unintended consequence—our overloaded brains freeze when we have to make decisions.

Quick Overview

• The ISM’s factory index rose to 61.4 from 60.8.

• Bernanke said downside risks to the recovery have receded, and the risk of deflation has become negligible.

• Ford February US sales rose 14%. GM's US auto sales rose 46%

• The global cocoa market is forecast to swing into a surplus of 119,000 metric tons in the 2010-11 crop marketing year compared with a revised 66,000-ton deficit in 2009-10, the International Cocoa Organization said.

• Gold prices rose to within $10 of their record high on Tuesday, while silver hit a 31-year high.

• (Bloomberg)Russia, the world’s biggest palladium producer, is shipping the smallest amount of metal to Switzerland in 15 years

Quick Overview

• The ISM index rose to 71.2 from 68.8 last month, the highest level since July 1988.

• The International Grains Council has lowered its forecast for Philippines rice stocks this year by 20% to a 13-year low of 1.6 million tons or 12% of annual consumption.

• U.S. Pending home resales fell 2.8 % after a revised 3.2 % decrease the prior month.

• U.S personal income rose 1.0% in Jan. -- marking the biggest increase in a year and a half.

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2%.

• Japan's industrial production in January climbed 2.4 percent from the previous month, marking the third straight month of increase.

• Australian business chiefs predicted a patchy economic growth outlook for 2011, with trade exposed industries particularly hit by the strength of the Australian dollar.

• Euro Dollar interest rates are approaching ZERO (100=0). Wondering where the next “big” move will be. UP or DOWN?

• The US Monetary Base is in new high ground.

• Silver lending rate is still below zero.

• Canada’s GDP rose 3.3% following an upwardly revised 1.8% gain in the previous three months. The Bank of Canada could raise rates sooner rather than later.

Quick Overview

• Warren Buffett: "We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America's best days lie ahead."

• Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row in January and they now exceed year ago levels. Sales rose by 2.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million homes, which is also up 5.3% from year-ago levels.

• (FT) Northern Rock is poised to launch a range of mortgages offering up to 90 per cent of a property’s value, marking the nationalized bank’s return to riskier lending three years after its collapse and government bail-out.

• US durable goods orders rose 2.7% in January

• US first time claims for unemployment benefits fell 22,000 to 391,000 in the week ending February 19

• (FT) The Republican plan to slash government spending by $61bn in 2011 could reduce US economic growth by 1.5 to 2 percentage points in the second and third quarters of the year, a Goldman Sachs economist has warned.

• (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s public pension fund, the world’s largest, said it may become a net seller of bonds to cover payments in the world’s most rapidly aging society.

• Faced with stiff opposition from Republicans in Congress the EPA will trim costs to control toxic air pollution by 50%. Some half-dozen bills have been introduced this year to block agency regulation.

• A new Reuters report that looked at maternity leave in 190 countries show 178 guarantee paid leave for new mothers, nine have undefined policies and only three - just three - offer "no legal guarantee of paid maternity leave," -- One of those three is the United States.

I’m on strike this week -- next update Sunday

Quick Overview

• Moody's raises flag on Japan debt -- says outlook now negative.

• The S&P, Case-Shiller index of U.S. home values in 20 cities fell 2.4%, the biggest YoY decrease since December 2009.

• U.S. Feb. consumer confidence 70.4 vs 64.8 in Jan.

Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail? Financial crooks brought down the world's economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them

The mental stumbling block, for most Americans, is that financial crimes don't feel real; you don't see the culprits waving guns in liquor stores or dragging coeds into bushes. But these frauds are worse than common robberies. They're crimes of intellectual choice, made by people who are already rich and who have every conceivable social advantage, acting on a simple, cynical calculation: Let's steal whatever we can, then dare the victims to find the juice to reclaim their money through a captive bureaucracy. They're attacking the very definition of property — which, after all, depends in part on a legal system that defends everyone's claims of ownership equally. When that definition becomes tenuous or conditional — when the state simply gives up on the notion of justice — this whole American Dream thing recedes even further from reality.

Quick Overview

• Palestinians staged an angry protest Sunday against the United States' veto Friday of a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel's settlement policy.
• Unrest in the Mideast is lapping at the shores of oil kingpin Saudi Arabia.
• At least 2,000 protesters gathered in a square in Morocco's capital on Sunday to demand that King Mohammed give up some of his powers and clamp down on government corruption.
• The death toll from four days of violence centered on the Libyan city of Benghazi has passed 100.
• Jittery Chinese authorities wary of any domestic dissent have staged a concerted show of force to squelch a mysterious online call for a "Jasmine Revolution" apparently modeled after pro-democracy demonstrations sweeping the Mideast.

• Soros tells CNN Obama has lost control of the domestic political agenda, Republicans are in charge of domestic agenda and will push to cut services in blow to economy.
• Geithner warns that the Republicans pact to slash the budget by $61bn will hit the economy's fragile recovery.

• China raised the prices of gasoline and diesel by 350 yuan (about 53.2 U.S. dollars) per tonne beginning Sunday.

• Texas is preparing to give college students and professors the right to carry guns on campus.

• (Bloomberg) India, the biggest sugar user, may permit exports of 500,000 metric tons as output tops demand for the first time in three years.

• Victory in the Southern Ocean Day for the Whales
  
  
  It's official – the Japanese whaling fleet has called it quits in the Southern Ocean, at least for this season. And if they return next season, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society will be ready to resume their efforts to obstruct and disable illegal Japanese whaling operations. Sea Shepherd estimates that over 900 whales have been saved this year !!

  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• China raised reserve requirements for the second time this year to counter inflation and curb property-price gains.

• Silver futures climb to their highest level in about 31 years.

• Mexico buys another 6.1 mln bu US corn.

• Sugar may be in surplus next year Kingsman says

• Cotton dropped on expectations that next season’s harvest may run ahead of demand.

• (FT)Lisbon insists it has no need of a financial rescue, denying reports that the country is under pressure from other Eurozone governments to turn to the EU for assistance.

• Abbott (ABT) increased the dividend 9%.

• General Motors (GM) said it wanted to explore the potential to export vehicles manufactured in China, with South America and South Korea as initial target markets.

• The Chinese car market has experienced an explosion in demand with a record 13.7 million vehicles sold last year.

• Malaysia's GDP in 2010 grows 7.2%.

• Foreign investment in Russia fell 50% in 2010

• Farmland values in U.S. Midwest rose 12% in 2010
  
  
• The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,” Buffett told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last week. “If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

Quick Overview

• The U.S first time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 25,000 to 410,000 -- a bit worse than expectations.

• The manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region reached its highest level in seven years last month.

• The U.S CPI rose a 0.4% in January and 1.6% Yoy. Food is up 1.8% YoY, energy is up 7.3%. Gasoline is up 13.4% YoY. Excluding food and energy the index was 1.0% YoY.

• China is contemplating the possibility of cutting import taxes to increase imports so that they can increase the supplies of food commodities.

• YoY foreign direct investment to China rose 23.4% to $10 billion in January.

• The cotton market locked the 700 point limit today -- reaching a record high of $2.04.

• Israel's economy rose 7.8% in Q4 of 2010

• Russia's unemployment rose to 7.6 % in January

• Eurozone construction fell 1.8% in December 2010

• Brazil's GDP rose 7.8% in 2010.

• The FT reports that mints are running out of silver and have started to ration coins. (check the silver lending rate on that page )

• Hanjin Shipping, the world's ninth biggest container shipper, predicted global container shipments would grow up to 8% this year.

• U.S. exports of steelmaking coking coal rose to 55 million tons in 2010, the highest level since 1991.

• Coal will continue to play an important role as an energy commodity in the coming years, with worldwide demand only likely to peak in 2020, Mr Philip Lowe the European Commission’s director general for energy said.