Currency wars are necessary if all else failsThe atomic bomb, of course, is quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. America has in effect issued an ultimatum to China and G20: either you stop this predatory behaviour and agree to some formula for global rebalancing, or we will deploy QE2 `a l’outrance’ to flood your economies with excess liquidity. We will cause you to overheat and drive up your wage costs. We will impose a de facto currency revaluation by more brutal and disruptive means, and there is little you can do to stop it. Pick your poison.

Quick Overview

• The number of people who signed up for unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to 462,000

• Spain’s September CPI rose 2.1% YoY

• Bad weather has sharply reduced the South Korean cabbage crop, with some Koreans paying $10-$14/head.

• U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September.

• The U.S. trade deficit widened by 8.8% in August to $46.3 billion

• Tin is the best performer on the LME this year – so far.

• YoY Japan's wholesale prices dipped 0.1 % in September.

• Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced that during this month, USDA will distribute approximately $1.6 billion in annual CRP rental payments and $3.8 billion in final 2010 direct payments to America's farmers and ranchers.

• (Bloomberg) -- CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures exchange, plans to begin clearing interest-rate swaps next week

• The U.S. DOE said:
  
  Supplies of crude oil fell by 0.4 million barrels in the week ending October 8,
  
  Supplies of gasoline fell by 1.8 million barrels.
  
  Supplies of distillates fell by 0.3 million barrels
  
  

The Values of Everything The acceptance of policies which counteract our interests is the pervasive mystery of the 21st Century. In the United States, blue-collar workers angrily demand that they be left without healthcare, and insist that millionaires should pay less tax. In the UK we appear ready to abandon the social progress for which our ancestors risked their lives with barely a mutter of protest. What has happened to us?

Quick Overview

• China posted a $16.9 billion trade surplus for September. Exports rose 25.1% YoY and imports climbed 24.1%.

• Japanese machinery orders rose 10.1% in August.

• The Environmental Protection Agency may allow ethanol levels in gasoline blends to be as high as 15%, up from the current 10%
• EPA's approval of an increase of ethanol levels in gasoline for model-year 2007 cars and newer fails to extend rally. The increase was expected..

• China imported 40.16 million metric tons of soybeans in the first nine months of the year, up 24.1% on year.
• China imported 460 million tons of iron ore, down 2.5% on year.
• China imported 23.29 million tons of crude in September 35.4% higher than the 17.2 million tons China imported in the corresponding month of 2009.

• Analysts expect Copper demand to outstrip next year’s supply by more than 400,000 tonnes.

• A La Nina event, which has brought wet weather to Australia and drought to Brazil, has strengthened, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.The La Niña in the Pacific remains a moderate to strong event. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value of +25 for September was its highest monthly value since 1973.
  
  
• U.K. consumer confidence fell to an 18-month low of 53
• Intel said fourth-quarter sales may total  $11.8 billion, compared with estimates of $11.3 billion

• The USDA thinks that Sugar shipments from Thailand, the second-largest exporter, will decline 20 % next year to 4.7 million metric tons.

• The USDA thinks that Brazil, the world’s largest producer, will see a sugar harvest 3.2% lower next year.

• According to  Reuters, Brazil is preparing to auction off big chunks of the Amazon rainforest to timber companies. By year-end 2.47 millions  acres of forests will go under private management, with 27 million acres privately controlled within five years--that's an area the size of Virginia.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- As many as 9 million U.S. mortgages in the foreclosure pipeline or already through the process may face legal challenges because of questions about the validity of documents, according to Morgan Stanley.

• Minutes from the latest Fed meeting kept hopes alive that the central bank would take more action to stimulate the economy.

• Sweden's expects GDP to expand 4.8% in 2010.

• (Bloomberg) -- The rice harvest in the U.S., the world’s fourth-largest exporter last year, may be at least 10 percent smaller than estimated.

• YoY German inflation rose 1.3% in September.

• Indian industrial production registered 5.6 % growth in August much lower than the 10% expected

• Only 41% of Austrians considered saving money as "very important," which decreased by 8% YoY.

• Chicago corn, soybeans, rice etc. resumed to rally on concerns that production this year may fail to meet demand.

Quick Overview

• Barclay’s sees CBOT December corn above $6 per bushel.

• Indonesia is seeking 700,000 metric tons of rice from Vietnam to replenish domestic inventories

• Importers in Bangladesh have bought around 55,000 metric tons white rice from Myanmar at an average price of $375/ton. The absence of India from the export market has forced buyers in Bangladesh to turn to Vietnam and Myanmar.

• Pakistan's exports of rice will likely fall 35% to 3 million metric tons this fiscal year.

• Standard Bank will be dealer and market maker for a new gold ETF to be launched in Hong Kong in October. The Value Gold ETF, to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, will be the first in Asia where the underlying gold will be physically held in Hong Kong rather than in London or Zurich.

• Italy August industrial output rose 1.6% MoM and 9.5% YoY

• Sugar is supported by reports of Brazilian industry buy-backs of sugar from the trade due to a domestic price rally; congestion at Brazilian ports, and a rally in U.S. corn futures, dealers said.

(FT) Speculators at fault for food prices, says pollThe poll shows the French to be most critical of speculators, with 49 per cent of respondents saying they are the main factor behind rising food prices. Similar sentiments were shown in Spain and Germany, where 36 and 35 per cent respectively blamed speculators. In Italy, 28 per cent pointed to government policy, followed by speculators, with 25 per cent. Only 11 and 9 per cent of people in the US and UK respectively fault speculators

(FT) Soaring prices threaten new food crisis
“The combined shortfalls [in the US, Europe, Russia and Ukraine] present a much tighter supply picture than just a few months ago,” the USDA said.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. posted a $1.29 trillion budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended September 30

• The USDA pegged corn production at 12.664 billion bushels, down from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below trade estimates. Corn yields were pegged at 155.8 bpa. Corn ending stocks fell to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year .These numbers s represent 57.8 days of supply -- the second tightest in the past 35 years.
• The USDA pegged wheat stocks at 853 million bushels down from 902 million last month
• The USAD pegged the soybean crop at 3.408 billion bushels and a yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month. Ending stocks are now at 265 million down from 350 million last month.

• The U.S. economy lost 95,000 nonfarm jobs in September.

• The Fed faces a difficult decision at next month's policy meeting on whether to offer further stimulus to a U.S. economy that is still growing but only slowly, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said.

• Ukraine will limit grain exports for the rest of this year, but needs a few days to clarify.

• Indonesia, the world’s third-largest rice producer, may have to import 300,000 metric tons of the grain, the first bulk purchase since 2007, to meet an expected shortfall in government supplies, Bulog executives said.

• (Bloomberg) Las Vegas Strip gambling revenue jumped 21% in August, showing the biggest U.S. casino city is emerging from a record slump.

• Brazil will harvest 3.2% less sugar cane than previously estimated in the year that began May 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 445,000 in the week ended Oct. 2, the fewest since July 10.

• Bank of England holds rates at 0.5%.

• The ECB has left its interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1%

• NOAA: Strong La Nina seen in Nov-Jan to stay into 2Q of 2011

• U.S. same-store sales rose 2.8 %

• The French trade deficit widened to 4.93 billion euros (6.88 billion U.S. dollars) in August 2010 on imports growth from 4.42 billion euros (6.18 billion dollars) a month earlier.

Quick Overview

• U.S. employment fell by 39,000 after a revised gain of 10,000 in August. Even if U.S. economy manages to grow, it will be too slow to provide enough jobs needed and high unemployment rate will be a new normal for Americans, said Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz on Wednesday.

• MoM Germany's factory orders rose 3.4% in August

• Euro-zone GDP grew 1% in Q2.

• GE agreed to buy oil-field equipment maker Dresser Inc. for $3 billion.

• South Korea and the European Union sealed a bilateral free trade agreement

• The IMF upwardly revised its projection of world output growth to 4.8% this year mainly because of faster growth driven by emerging and developing economies, but warned that downside risks remain elevated.

• YoY sales of new imported vehicles in Japan, including Japanese brands manufactured abroad, jumped 34.7% in the April-September period.

• The Singapore PMI remained on contraction mode with a reading of 49.5 last month, though it did rise a mere 0.1 point over August, local daily The Straits Times reported.

• The U.S. DOE said:
  
  Crude oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels
  
  Gasoline stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels
  
  Distillate stocks fell by 1.1 million
  
  
• Australia created a net 49,500 new jobs in September, more than twice the market forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1 percent.
  
  

The Aliens Are Coming Consider, for example, the walking catfish, which is now colonising China, Thailand and the United States, after escaping from fish farms and ornamental ponds(6). It can move across land at night, reaching water that no other fish species has colonised. It slips into fish farms and quietly works through the stock. It can burrow into the mud when times are hard and lie without food for months, before exploding back into the ecosystem when conditions improve. It eats almost anything that moves.

..But in many parts of the world the policy appears to consist of staring dumbly at the problem while something can be done, then panicking when it’s too late.

Quick Overview

• Japan announced it will buy more bonds and cut its key overnight call rate to a range of 0.0%-0.1%

• Australia held steady on interest rates, bucking expectations by most economists that it would boost rates.

• The Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 53.8 per cent from 51.5 per cent in August.

• Silver continues to outperform gold, with the number of ounces of silver needed to buy an ounce of gold slipping to a one-year low at 59.15.

• The US Grains Council estimates China's corn production at 6.22 billion bushels, down 320 million from USDA's estimate and down 280 million from China's estimate.

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders fell by 0.5% in August

• National Association of Realtors said its pending U.S. home sales index rose to 82.3 from 78.9 in July.

• YoY September consumer confidence in Mexico rose to 91.6 from 81.9

• Latvia's industrial output rose 20.5% YoY in September -- a nine-year high.

• WoW US coal use fell 4%, but rose 2% YoY

• Iraq's oil minister boosted the estimate of the country's proven oil reserves to 143.1 billion barrels-- up 25 %

• YoY Russia’s annual inflation rate rose 7% after the country’s worst drought in at least half a century hobbled agricultural output.

• Global steel demand growth will decelerate next year as China’s real estate market weakens and consumption in Japan falls, the World Steel Association said.

• YoY the monetary base in Japan rose 5.8% in September

• The head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn urged major economies to do more to prevent a global currency war.

• The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing sector rose to 53.8 % in September, up 2.1% from August

• Despite investment plans to upgrade air cargo terminals at Nagpur, Mumbai and Delhi, lack of aircraft capacity in India and Bangladesh is threatening to roadblock demand expected to grow annually at 10% in the next five years according to the Airports Authority of India.

• Dominic Dyer, chief executive of the Crop Protection Association, said "The U.K. is now only 58.9% self-sufficient food - the lowest figure for 42 years" .

• UPS Freight, the less-than-truckload unit of UPS, said it will institute an average 5.9% general rate increase later this month.

• Robert Edwards, the father of in vitro fertilisation, has received this year's Nobel prize.The

• Economist online: Our voters think that Barack Obama's time in the White House so far has been good for business.

• Arlan Suderman: Rumors that Russia is in to buy US corn following flat price break. Would be massively supportive if true..

• Environmental campaigner and Green party activists Marina Silva, who was raised in the Amazon state of Acre and was illiterate until the age of 16, failed to make the second round but came away with 19% of the Brazilian vote, far higher than pollsters had expected.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 in the week ending September 25 to 453,000.

• Soybean inventories on Sept. 1 totaled 151 million bushels, up from 150 million estimated on Sept. 10 and the 138 million bushels on hand a year earlier, the USDA said.

• Corn stockpiles on Sept. 1 totaled 1.708 billion bushels, up from 1.673 billion a year earlier Corn usage in the three months ended Aug. 31 was 2.6 billion bushels, up from 2.59 billion a year earlier, the USDA said.

• US GDP rose 3.7% in Q2.

• Trade between South Korea and Russia has recorded an over 50-fold jump since the two countries established diplomatic relations 20 years ago

• the Institute for Supply Management said its business barometer climbed to 60.4 in September.

• India’s sugar surplus may increase by as much as 50 percent in the year starting Oct. 1, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. said yesterday.

We are on strike today

Quick Overview

• MoM The U.S. Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 48.5, lower than forecast, from 53.2

• The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.1 % MoM but rose 3.2% YoY -- the smallest year-over-year gain since March, the group said. The index remains 27.9 % below the peak set in mid-2006.

• YoY Chilean copper output grew 1.3% in August to 467,680 metric tons from the 461,856 tons produced in August 2009.

• The La Nina weather event has strengthened even further and looks likely to last into early 2011, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Tuesday.

• India extended by a year the deadline for tax-free imports of rice to keep prices under check.

• Israel set up a new military intelligence unit to incorporate high-tech hacking tactics.

• Credit rating agencies warned Ireland that its debt is at risk of further downgrades.

• Ukraine grain export restrictions are possible, news items say..

• Pension funds will be looking to increase their gold holdings considerably after years of "negligible exposure," the director of global research from the Teacher Retirement System of Texas has said.

• The yields for Monsanto's SmartStax corn seeds are trailing those of its legacy VT Triple Pro and VT Double Pro products, said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander in a note to clients.

• The US Treasury sold $35 bln five-year notes at a record low yield of 1.26%.
  
  
  
• 
  
  Japan’s Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment was plus 8 in September, up for a sixth straight quarter and marking the best reading since March 2008.

Quick Overview

• China said it will slap a hefty tariff on U.S. chicken imports to combat what it says are unfairly low prices. The New import duties range from 50.3% to as much as 105.4 % will take effect Monday and last for five years.

• U.S. Congress moved a step closer to punishing China for allegedly manipulating its currency. A bill in the U.S. Congress would allow US companies to petition for higher duties on imports from China to compensate for an under-valued Chinese Yuan.

• The SEC denied a bid by China's largest credit rating firm to become an officially recognized statistical rating organization in the United States.

• YoY Japan's trade surplus dropped 37.5% in August
• YoY Japan's exports in August grew 15. 8 %

• Mexico's July economic activity index rose  5.1% YoY

Quick Overview

• Brazil’s orange crop may drop to 271.7 million boxes, be;ow the May 7 estimate of 286 million, Cutrale Corporate Affairs Director Carlos Viacava said in an interview last week. Production will decline from 305 million boxes last year.

• The roots of thousands of cocoa trees in Cameroon's chief cocoa-growing locality of the South-West Region are being attacked and killed by a strange, unidentified disease, farmers in the area told Dow Jones Newswires Sunday.

• Japans ruling party mulls $55B Stimulus plan.

• UK September house prices down 0.4% MoM but up 1.0% YoY

• (Dow Jones)--Jewish settlers marked the last day of Israel's construction moratorium in the West Bank with celebrations and vows to build at full steam on Monday.

• (FT) Tom Vilsack, the US secretary of agriculture, has played down recent increases in the price of wheat, corn and other food commodities, saying the world is not on the brink of a rerun of the recent food supply crisis. ..

Gold is the final refuge against universal currency debasement
So we have an early 1930s world where surplus states are hoarding money, instead of recycling it. A solution of sorts in the Great Depression was for each deficit country to devalue, breaking out of the trap (then enforced by the Gold Standard). This turned the deflation tables on the surplus powers – France and the US from 1929-1931 – forcing them to reflate as well (the US in 1933) or collapse (France in 1936). Contrary to myth, beggar-thy-neighbour policy was the global cure.