Quick Overview

• Greece cuts deficit by 46% YoY -- beating target

• YoY India’s industrial output rose 11.5% in May

• FO Licht raised World 2010-11 corn output to 804.20M Tons

• FO Licht lowered World 2010-11 wheat output to 656.37M Tons

• (Dow Jones)--Uranium prices could soon be driven higher by the largest Asian atomic expansion in three decades, with China seen buying unprecedented amounts of uranium this year.

• China's June exports exceeded imports by $20.02 billion, up from May’s $19.5 billion trade surplus and April's $1.68 billion surplus.

• U.K services output ffell 0.3 pct in April

• U.K.'s economy grew 0.3% in Q1

• Brazil recorded a trade surplus of US$7.9 billion in the first half of the year, down from US$13.9 billion YoY -- exports rose by 26.5% to $89.2 billion.

• China has replaced the United States as Brazil's top trading partner after Chinese imports rose 57.7% in the first half of the year.

• Malaysia's palm oil stocks fell to a 10-month low, a sign that heat stress to trees may have been more severe than projected.

• (Reuters) - Revived monsoon rains in India accelerated the planting of rice, oilseeds and cotton last week.

Quick Overview

• Google climbed premarket as China renewed its Internet license.
  
  

• The USDA's U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was lowered from 1.573 to 1.373 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were kept at 360 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from .991 to 1.093 billion bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 764,000 to 952,000 tons.
  Cotton was raised from 2.80 to 3.50 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's world 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was lowered from 147 to 141 million tons. Versus the average analyst estimate of 1.404 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.603 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 67 to 68 million tons.
  Wheat was lowered from 194 to 187 million tons.
  Cotton was raised slightly from 49.6 to 49.9 million bales.
  It estimates the 2009-2010 OJ crop unchanged at 134 million boxes -- juice yield was raised from 1.55 to 1.56 gallons
  

• Korea lifted its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first tightening since August 2008

• (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's No. 2 sugar exporter, will tender to buy sugar for the first time next week in a bid to tackle a domestic shortage.
  The tender on Tuesday will be for the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of white sugar with options of three delivery periods.
  Although Thailand's output typically exceeds consumption by around 4-5 million tonnes, some dealers said many trade houses had committed export sales before the new crop in November .
• India may export at least 1 million metric tons in the year starting Oct. 1, as domestic production jumps 34 percent, said Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd., the country’s biggest refiner.

EMU break-up risks global deflation shock that would dwarf Lehman collapse, warns ING A full-fledged disintegration of the eurozone would trigger the worst economic crisis in modern history, devastate every country in Europe including Germany, and inflict a deflationary shock on the US. There would be no winners, warns the Dutch bank ING in a new report "Quantifying the Unthinkable".

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 21,000 last week to 454,000
  

• The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2010 global growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.6%. For 2011, they are expecting growth of 4.3%.
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate out at 5.1%. The currency rose on the stronger-than-expected employment data and improving investor confidence.
  

• The EU and the Bank of England both kept interest rates unchanged
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing index rose 0.3% MoM and up 4.3% YoY
  

• During the first five months of this year net imports of coal in China rose to 60.11 million tons from 38.44 million tons last year.
• (NYT) The weather page of the New Beijing News gives lots of helpful advice. But, in one of the most polluted cities in the world, it doesn't mention something really important: how clean is the air?
  

• (Reuters) - The global private banking sector has the potential to grow by 60 percent if it can get hold of about $10 trillion in untapped wealth, held back by depressed returns and lack of investor trust, Scorpio Partnership said.
  

• MoM German exports rose by 9.2 % in May.

• Russia cut its forecast for this year's grain output to 85 million tonnes from 90 million as 14 key growing regions declared a state of emergency due to severe drought.

• (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-largest corn consumer, may give up efforts to be self-sufficient in the commodity and boost imports 10-fold by 2015 to feed livestock, said a researcher at Japan’s biggest grain trader.

TEXT-China spells out gold reserve policy

Finally, increasing the gold reserve will not help much in diversifying China's foreign exchange reserves. In the past few years, we increased the gold reserve by more than 400 tonnes. Our country's gold reserve has already reached 1,054 tonnes. Even if we double the amount, it can only diversify between $30 billion to $40 billion of the foreign exchange reserves, and the proportion of gold reserve in our foreign exchange reserve will only increase by one or two percentage points.

Quick Overview

• GDP in the EU rose 0.2% in Q1 and 0.5% YoY
  

• (Bloomberg) Sugar rose in New York on speculation India, the world’s second-biggest grower, will keep supplies from the world market to meet domestic demand.
  

• (DJ) Depressed iron ore demand from Chinese steel mills has been pressuring shipping rates over the last month, with iron ore a key ingredient in steel production and the main product in dry bulk shipping. Chinese spot iron ore prices are near $US125 per tonne, a steep discount to the all-in cost of having it shipped from Australia, which is at $US155 per tonne.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 55.4 to 53.8 in June
  

• Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia says that despite recent caution, it is confident about growth in China and the region.
  

• Canada’s building permits fell 10.8% MoM
  

• Retail sales volume in the EU-27 rose 0.4% in May.
  

• 'Very dry conditions' in Thailand may see world's second-ranked sugar exporter suffer a fall of more than 1m tonnes in output in 2010-11, Rabobank.
  

• India's south-west monsoon rains have covered the entire country, about 10 days earlier than the normal date, the country's weather office said.
  

• An area of disturbed weather over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico could strengthen into a tropical storm later this week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Monday.

• MoM global chip sales rose 4.5%

• Greenpeace levelled new accusations of rainforest destruction against Indonesian agribusiness giant Sinar Mas and urged retailers Carrefour and Walmart to stop buying their products.
  

Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs Our fundamental economic beliefs, which we have elevated from a conviction based on observation to an unquestioned truism, is that the free market is the best of all economic systems—the freer the better. Our generation has seen the decisive victory of free-market principles over planned economies. So we stick with this belief, largely oblivious to emerging evidence that while free markets beat planned economies, there may be room for a modification that is even better.

Quick Overview

• Rabobank estimates U.S. corn stocks at 9.1% of consumption - the lowest for 15 years.
  

• Rabobank said that Thailand's sugar production could fall by 10-15% in 2010-11 from the previous year's 6.9m tonnes.
  
• The International Sugar Organization says the sugar market outlook suggests a global surplus of around 2.5 million tonnes in 2010/11 after a deficit of 8.5 million tonnes in 2009/10.
  
• India will decide before October on whether to re-impose an import tax on the sweetener to protect the local industry.
  

• Wheat is climbing on concern that hot, dry weather in northwestern Europe and Russia will hurt production

With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932 Perhaps naively, I still think central banks have the tools to head off disaster. The question is whether they will do so fast enough, or even whether they wish to resist the chorus of 1930s liquidation taking charge of the debate. Last week the Bank for International Settlements called for combined fiscal and monetary tightening, lending its great authority to the forces of debt-deflation and mass unemployment. If even the BIS has lost the plot, God help us.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. lost 125,000 jobs in June as temporary census workers exited the labor force. The private sector added 83,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%.
  

• U.S. Factory orders fell 1.4% in May
  

• EU unemployment rate stayed at 9.6% in May.
  

• China's GDP rose 9.1% in 2009. Goldman Sachs. cut its growth forecast for China this year to 10.1 % from 11.4 %.
  

• Sugar prices may rise 30 percent this year on increasing demand, low yields and transportation delays for sugar-cane crops in Brazil, said Copersucar SA, a Brazilian cooperative that sells more sugar overseas than Thailand.
  

• Orange-juice gained for the third day in a row on concern that storms may damage the crop in Florida
  

• (Bloomberg) India, the world’s second-largest cotton grower and exporter, will end curbs on overseas sales in the new crop year amid forecasts for a record harvest, said a government official.
  

• Germany's lower house of Parliament approved a watered-down bill banning "naked" short-selling of all stocks and some euro currency derivatives

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 13,000 last week to 472,000, more than expected
  
• U.S. Pending home sales fell 30% MoM and down 16% YoY
  
• U.S. Manufacturing fell from 59.7 to 56.2 in June
  
• U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM and down 8.0% YoY
  

• Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 55.8 to 55.6 in June
  

• Swedenraised its interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. fell from 58.0 to 57.5 in June
  

• Japan's Tankan survey rose from -14 to +1
  

• Thailand's government plans to buy back sugar from traders to meet rising local consumption, an industry group said.
  

• India’s gold imports may fall as much as 36% this year as higher prices and volatility slows demand -- the Indian Bullion Market Association said.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Commodity shipping costs measured by the Baltic Dry Index extended their longest losing streak in almost five years on a surplus of ships for hire.

• The dollar extended losses against the euro and yen after data showed U.S. jobless claims rose, pending home sales fell and manufacturing activity slowed all signaling weakness in the U.S. outlook.

Quick Overview

• The International Monetary Fund’s gold holdings fell 15.25 metric tons in May, according to figures from the Washington-based lender’s website.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 59.7 to 59.1 in June
  

• U.S. mortgage applications rose 12.6% last week
  

• MoM Germany's unemployment rate improved from 7.7% to 7.5%
  

• YoY Japan’s housing starts fell 4.6% in May
  

• MoM China’s purchasing managers index fell to 52.1 from 53.9
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.0 million barrels last week to 363.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 500,000 barrels
  Supplies of distillates rose 2.5 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.5%
  Distillate demand rose 10.9%

• The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
  Corn at 87.87 million acres, up almost 2% YoY
  Soybeans at 78.87 million acres, up 2% YoY
  All wheat at 54.31 million acres, down 8% YoY
  Spring wheat at 13.91 million acres, up 5% YoY
  Cotton at 10.91 million acres, up 19% YoY
  Oats 3.176 million (the lowest on record)
  Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million
  
  As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
  Corn at 4.31 billion bushels -- up 1% YoY
  Soybeans at 571 million bushels -- down 4% YoY
  All wheat at 973 million bushels -- up 48% YoY
  Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY
  

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - A new United Nations report released on Tuesday calls for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value.
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 62.7 to 52.9 in May, weaker than expected.
  

• Chinas leading indicators fell 0.3% in April
  

• Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 5.2% in May,
  
• Japan’s industrial output fell 0.1% in May.
  
• Japan’s household spending fell 0.7% in May
  

• The S&P’s /Case-Shiller index of home prices in twenty U.S. cities rose 0.4% MoM and up 3.8% YoY.
  

• Oil World says soyoil prices will "likely strengthen", rebuilding a premium over palm oil, thanks to a pick up in Chinese and Indian orders
  

• Lack of rain in Vietnam caused Robusta prices to hit a fresh 16-month high as worries mount about the top producer's lack of rainfall, which is also hitting rice crops.
  

• There are 90 vessels in Brazil waiting to be loaded with sugar.

No "weekly" update this week.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 0.7% in Q1 and up 2.4% YoY
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 73.6 to 76.0 in June
  

• Japan's consumer price index fell 0.9% YoY – Govt. goal of ending deflation next fiscal year in doubt.
  

• France's GDP rose 0.1% in Q1 – and Paris announces a further €3.5bn of tax rises for 2011.
  

• The USDA said that beef production totaled 2.09 billion pounds in May, down 4% YoY
  

• The USDA said Pork production totaled 1.62 billion pounds in May, down 6% YoY
  

• (FT) The modest appreciation in the level of the currency during the first week of trading under the new flexible regime has raised questions about Beijing’s real intentions.
  

• (Reuters) - A bomb explosion at the Greek ministry in charge of police could be an ominous show of strength by militants in a nation suffering austerity cuts that have sparked street protests and scared off tourism.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Residents and business owners along the Gulf of Mexico face a weekend of watching and planning as a weather system that may become the year’s first tropical storm, or hurricane, lingers on their doorstep.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 19,000 last week to 457,000
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.1% in May, the first decline in six months
  

• YoY Japan's exports rose 32% in May
  

• EU industrial new orders fell 0.2% MoM, but rose21.8% YoY

• (AP) Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell this week to an average of 4.69 percent, the lowest since the mid-1950s.
  

Quick Overview

• Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, the lowest since records begin in 1963. Sales in March and April were also revised lower; April's sales pace was 446,000 compared with 504,000 originally reported.

• F.O. Licht raised 2009/10 world sugar production by 0.7% to 155 million MT on higher output from Brazil and India. This is up from a February prediction of 153.9 million MT.

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of distillates rose 300,000 barrels
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8%
  Distillate demand rose 12.8%
  
  

The Quiet Coup Not surprisingly, Wall Street ran with these opportunities. From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales fell 2.2% from April's pace.
  

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from +26 to +23 in June
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer price index rose 1.4% in May
  

• China net coal imports expected to reach 170 million tonnes in 2010.
  

• Maersk Line is deploying laid-up ships as well as ordering new boxes and leasing old ones, according to the UK's Handing Shipping Guide. Prices for new maritime containers are close to the highest point in 20 years, driven by a rush of new orders from ocean carriers and container leasing companies in response to a growing shortage of boxes.

• (CNN) Nearly 200 people have died and more than 120 are missing from heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern China provinces..