Unnatural disaster
..the balance works out at 96 per cent navigation, 3 per cent flood protection and 1 per cent environmental restoration.

Quick Overview

• US jobs data out worse than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up by 190,000 against expectations of 175,000 and unemployment rising from 9.8% last month to 10.2% now
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.7% MoM while inventories fell 0.9%.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in October
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates GDP will be up 1.75% in 2009 and up 3.25% in 2010.

• The US ag attachee cut to 13.2m tonnes the forecast for Chinas sugar output, representing a 9% cut on their initial estimate, and a 1.2% fall YoY.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000, less than expected.
  

• YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 9.5% in Q3
  

• YoY U.S labor costs fell 3.6% in Q3
  

• The EU kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%
  

• EU retail sales fell 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY.
  

• Brazil's expects soybean production of 63 million tons in 2009-2010
  

• England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  
  

It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the US Congress last week that the debt path was out of control and raised "a real risk that Japan could end up in a major default".

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve took small steps in the direction of a more hawkish stance on rates, tweaking its guidance on future policy for the first time since March.

• The ADP employment report showed that 203,000 private sector jobs were lost in October. Although this was more than the 190,000 forecast, investors welcomed the fact it represented the smallest number since July 2008.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 50.9 to 50.6 in October
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 8%
  

• The World Bank expects GDP in China to be up 8.4% in 2009 and up 8.7% in 2010
  

• Services in the U.K. rose from 55.3 to 56.9 in October
  

• Services in the Euro zone rose from 52.3 to 52.6 in October
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 0.2% in September.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 300,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 81.8% to 80.6%
  Gasoline demand was unchanged YoY
  Distillate demand fell 14.8% YoY.

• Gold prices extended their record breaking run, pushing towards $1,100

• Ore demand pushes freight costs higher

• Informa estimates the US corn crop at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 164.8 bushels per acre
  Informa estimates the US bean crop at 3.333 billion bushels with a bpa of 42.4.
  The last USDA estimate, in Oct, was 13.018 billion corn with a 164.2 bpa and 3.250 billion beans with a 42.4 bpa.
  Last month, Informa estimated the corn crop at 13.127 with a 164.7 bpa and the bean crop at 3.250 billion with a 44 bpa.

• (Bloomberg) -- Rice futures in Chicago rose to the highest price in almost 10 months on mounting concern that Indian inventories will trail demand, forcing the world’s second-largest producer to import grain.
  Output in India has declined because of adverse weather, and the government plans to buy 26 million metric tons of the grain from farmers this year to bolster domestic stockpiles and avoid food shortages, said Dennis DeLaughter, a rice farmer and the owner of Progressive Farm Marketing in Edna, Texas.
  “The government is trying to make sure they don’t have a panic on their hands, so they’re moving rice into the market early to avoid having a run on supplies,” DeLaughter said.
  

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.
  

• U.S. Factory orders rose 0.9% in September, better than expected.
  

• Australia increased its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%, as expected.
  

• Gold has hit an all-time high of USD 1,085 after it was announced that India's central bank had bought 200 MT of the stuff from the IMF in deal worth USD6.7 billion. This appears to confirm that central banks are comfortable entering the market to hold gold at over USD 1,000/oz.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 52.6 to 55.7 in October.
  

• U.S. employment index rose from 46.2 to 53.1
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM.
  

• Chinas manufacturing index rose from 55.0 to 55.4 in October -- the highest reading in 18 months.
  

• U.K.’s manufacturing index rose from 49.9 to 53.7 in October
  

• EU manufacturing rose from 49.3 to 50.7 in October
  

• Pending U.S. home sales, representing contracts signed for home purchases, rose 6.4 % MoM. YoY the pending sales index rose 12.4%
  

• Ford Motor Co. said Monday it earned a profit of $997 million in Q3, a $1.2 billion rebound from the Q3 a year ago.

Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 70.6 from 73.5 in Sep.

• U.S. personal incomes fell 0.1% in September, spending fell 0 .5%.
  
  

• Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in September
  
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% in August and 4.0% YoY
  
  

• Unemployment rate in the EU rose from 9.1% to 9.2% in September
  
  

• Germany's retail sales fell 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY
  
  

• Japan's central bank said it would stop buying corporate debt in December, ending some of the emergency credit measures implemented earlier this year
  
  

• India, typically amongst the world's top three or four rice exporters, Friday issued a tender for import of 10,000 metric tons of rice.
  

Central banks chill asset rally Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, said investors should move with care as central banks awaken. A study of 19 "bear market" rallies over recent decades shows that bourses tend to tip over as the US Federal Reserve starts tightening. Equities fall back 25pc over the next 13 months on average. It is unlikely to be better this time.

Growth and jobs
At this rate, we wouldn’t reach anything that feels like full employment until well into the second Palin administration.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 0.9% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.3%.
  

• US jobless claims fell 1,000 to 530,000.
  

• The IMF expects 2010 GDP growth of 9% in China and 6.4% in India.
  

• Japan's industrial output rose 1.4% in September
  

• Lumber closed up its $10 maximum daily limit
  

• China agreed to end the ban on imports of U.S. pork.
  

India May Import Rice, Fueling ‘Panic,’ IRRI Says
(Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of “panic” that sent prices to records in 2008, a rice expert said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 24.1% YoY.
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 3.6% MoM and 27% YoY.
  

• Australia's consumer prices rose 1.3% in Q3
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.4% in September
  

• Norway raised its interest rate 0.25%.

• The U.S. will need to import as much as 1.2 million tons more sugar than the U.S. Department of Agriculture now plans on allowing into the country in fiscal year 2010, according to the Sweetener Users Association

• India is expected to import up to 3.5 million metric tons of rice in coming months, Dwight Roberts, president and chief executive of the U.S. Rice Producers Association sais

Rice Market ‘On Thin Ice’ as Record Prices May Return (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices may return to record levels as bad weather curbs output in major growers including India, a Philippine minister and the U.S. Rice Producers Association said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 53.4 to 47.4 in October
  

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from +14 to +7 in October
  

• The Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 11.3% YoY. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
  

• The eurozone reports the first YoY fall in bank lending to the private sector of 0.3% -- strengthening the case for the ECB to maintain its ultra-loose interest rate policy.

• India will extend the deadline for duty-free imports of the raw sugar by nine months to Dec. 31 2010

• (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, plans to bring forward imports for 2010 to beat other nations to the market before prices surge and ensure stockpiles aren’t drained, the National Food Authority said.

• India eliminates 70% import tax on some rice types

• “You can’t find a year in USDA’s data (which goes back to 1972) on corn harvest activity that is as slow as this year [20%complete]. Period. (CME)

Quick Overview

• South Korea’s GDP rose 2.6% in Q3 and 0 .6% YoY
  

• China’s copper imports totaled 282,828 tons in September, up 29%

Food will never be so cheap again
The world's grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China's inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.

U.S. Risks Japan-Like ‘Lost Decade’ on Stimulus Exit, Koo Says
“If you learn your lesson from the Japanese experience, you don’t remove your fiscal stimulus until private sector de- leveraging is over,” Koo, 55, chief economist at the research arm of Japan’s biggest brokerage, said in an interview at his Tokyo office last week. “When we see the private sector coming to borrow again, I’ll be the loudest person on earth arguing for fiscal reform. That’s the exit.”

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales rose 9.4% in September
  

• U.K. GDP fell 0.4% in Q3 and 5.2% YoY
  

• EU industrial orders rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 22.3% YoY.
  

• Amazon and Microsoft reported better-than-expected results
  

• The USDA said pork production rose 1% YoY
  

• The USDA said beef production fell 2% YoY.