A sterling crash is a godsend

Politically, these countries face what options traders call "time decay". The longer it lasts, the worse it gets.

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• Agriculture production needs to expand by 70% through 2050, as the global population rises to 9.1 billion from 6.7 billion, Jacques Diouf, director-general at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said.
  

• Bernanke said Asian economies are leading the world economic recovery, but should focus on boosting consumption.
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services rose from 96.8 to 97.1 in August -- better than expected.
  

• British same-store sales rose 7.5% in September
  

• CWG - Nearly half of Brazil's wheat suffering major losses due to persistent rains this month. Brazil world's largest wheat importer (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)
  

• Rain in Brazil is also delaying the harvest of sugarcane. Cazrnikow's director of research, Toby Cohen, said: "There simply will not be enough sugar to meet ongoing levels of demand. "Limits on supply require a forced adjustment of consumption. To this end it is clear that prices will need to move higher to ration demand."

• The USDA said that there were 10.474 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1st, up 0.6% YoY

• RBA: A “very expansionary setting of policy was no longer necessary, and possibly imprudent,” officials said

• Koyodo News reported that crude steel output in Japan in the April to September first half of fiscal 2009 fell by 29.6% YoY to 43.33 million tonnes, marking a 40 year low on a semiannual basis due to a plunge in demand.

• (Bloomberg) -- Burning coal to generate electricity in the U.S. causes about $62 billion a year in “hidden costs” for environmental damage, not including expenses related to global warming, the National Academy of Sciences said.

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• U.S. Industrial production rose 0.7% in September and was revised up 1.2% for August.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 73.5 to 69.4

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices fell 0.9%
  

• YoY EU exports fell 20% in August

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• U.S. jobless claims fell 10,000 to 514,000 -- the lowest in nine months.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM, but fell 1.3% YoY
  

• Consumer prices in the EU rose0.3% YoY.
  
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 18.9 to 34.6 in October
  
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 14.1 to 11.5 in October
  
  

• U.S. Foreclosure filings fell 4% MoM, but rose 29% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 400,000 barrels to 337.8 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.2 million barrels
  Supplies 0f heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.0% to 80.9%.
  Gasoline demand rose 5.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 10.8% Yoy.

• North American cocoa bean grindings in the third quarter totaled 118,405metric tons, down 586 tons, or 0.49%, from the same period last year, theNational Confectioners Association said Thursday.

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• U.S. retail sales fell 1.5% in September. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.5%, better than expected.
  

• U.K. unemployment rate remained at 7.9%
  

• EU industrial production rose 0.6% in August, but fell 13.5% YoY.
  

• Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.1%
  

• JP Morgan earned $3.6 billion in Q3 -- better than expected.
  

• Intel expects a strong fourth quarter.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 6.8% YoY.

• China's major ports handled 4.5 billion tons of cargo between January and August, an increase of 4.9 % compared to the same period last year.
  

• World sugar output is forecast to increase to 156.9 million tonnes in 2009/10 from 150.0 million in 2008/09, German analyst F.O. Licht said in its first forecast for sugar production in the new crop year. "As sugarcane needs 12 to 18 months to mature, the cane that has been planted in response to this year's price surge will only be ready for harvesting for the 2010/11 crush." F.O. Licht said.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind fell 1.5% YoY to 343,471 tonnes in Q3 of 2009, the European Cocoa Association said on Wednesday.

• Concerns about supplies in both Asia and the U.S. havesent CBOT rice to its highest price in nine months

Updates resume Oct. 14

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• The U.S. trade gap narrowed in August to $30.7 billion, down 3.6 percent from a revised estimate of $31.9 billion for July
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 8.7% to 8.4% in September
  

• Japan's machinery orders rose 0.5% in August
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 836,000 tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
  Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
  
  
  

• The USDA estimates the Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop at 136 million boxes, down 16% YoY
  
  

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• U.S. jobless claims fell 33,000 last week to 521,000,
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 17.7% YoY
  

• U.S. Inventories fell 1.3% MoM and fell 14.7% YoY
  

• The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged,.

• European cocoa bean grindings in Q3 totaled 406,080 metric tons, up 16.5% YoY

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• Australias jobless rate fell to 5.7% from 5.8%

• U.S mortgage applications rose 16%.
  

• GDP in the EU fell 0.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY
  

• Japan's coincident index rose from 89.8 to 91.4 in August
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1 million barrels to 337.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.6% to 85.0%
  Gasoline demand rose 6.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.5% YoY.
  

• German cocoa grind rose 11% QoQ

• Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimates the upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes versus 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess is 5.25 million tonnes versus their September guess of 5.85 million.

• (Bloomberg) Sugar deliveries from Brazil may face delays next year after above-average rains pared cane yields and slowed the harvest, producer Grupo Jose Pessoa SA said. Deliveries originally scheduled for the first half of 2010 may be delayed until later in the year or the first half of 2011.

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• U.K. manufacturing output fell 1.9% in August.

• Arctic air flow may enter IA on Thurs with 3 or 4 nights of frost. Hard freeze (28F) possible Friday night over much of the state. Elvin

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• Australia raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25%

• The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, rose to 50.9 from 48.4 in August -- higher than forecast.
  

• Retail sales in the EU fell 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY.
  

• EU manufacturing and services rose from 50.4 to 51.1.
  

• Services in the U.K. rose from 54.1 to 55.3 in September.
  

• FCStone to raise its estimate for a global sugar shortfall in the year ended September to 8 million tons, from 6.1 million tons previously.
  

• Roubini thinks that the piles of money being printed are leading to asset bubbles in stocks and commodities
  

• Norway is rated the best place in the world to live

• (Arlan Suderman) Commodity Weather Group raises risk of hard freeze for NW half of Mdwst by Oct. 13 to 80%. Risk for northern Delta by 14th is 20%.

• Sugar production in India'sKarnataka state is expected to decline for a second year due to flooding

• (DJ) Soybean Rust Making Fast Late-Season Push; No Damage Foreseen

• (FT) Traders are concerned that the cocoa market could face a supply deficit for a fourth year in succession as yields from ageing cocoa trees in the Ivory Coast have been affected by disease.

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• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.7% to 9.8% in September. Non-farm payrolls fell 263,000 – more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders fell 0.8% in August.
  

• Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% in August
  

• U.K. house prices rose 0.9% in September.
  

• Canada estimates its 2009 wheat crop at 24.58 million tons, up from 23.61 million tons in July.
  

• The idle container fleet worldwide has climbed to 548 ships, totaling 1.29 million TEU capacity at the end of September. This represents 10% of the total fleet capacity, or 11.6% of the total number of containerships.

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• The IMF said that it expects the world economy to contract 1.1% in 2009 -- but grow 3.1% in 2010
  

• The IMF expects real GDP in the U.S. to fall2.7% in 2009, but up 1.5% in 2010.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 17,000 last week to 551,000, more than expected.
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM, but fell 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.2%
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 1.3%
  

• Supply Management reported that its monthly index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 52.6 in September from 52.9 in August -- surprisingly weak
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that its index of pending home U.S. sales rose 6.4% MoM and 12.4% YoY
  

• Unemployment in the EU rose from 9.0% to 9.1% MoM
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.8% in August
  

• Manufacturing in Australia rose from 51.7 to 52.0 MoM
  

• Manufacturing in India rose from 53.2 to 55.0 MoM
  

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• U.S. GDP fell 0.2% QoQ and down 3.8% YoY.
  
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 50.0 to 46.1
  

• ADP said the U.S. lost 254,000 private-sector jobs in September

• Canada’s GDP was unchanged in July and down 4.6% YoY
  

• Industrial output in Japan rose 1.8% in August
  

• Germany's unemployment rate improved from 8.3% to 8.2% in September.
  
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.9% in August,
  
  

• The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.
  
  

• The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected
  
  

• The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 338.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels
  Refinery use fell from 85.6% to 84.6%
  Gasoline demand rose 5.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.2% YoY.
  
  

• Barclays Capital expects world Sugar use to outpace production by 8.1 million tons in 2009-2010

• (Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, is the weakest in more than three decades, threatening farm output in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar

• Yum Brands Inc.'s (YUM) board approved an 11% dividend increase andauthorized $300 million of share repurchase.
  
  
  

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• The S&P & Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices rose 1.6% in July and fell 13.3% YoY
  
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 54.5 to 53.1 in September
  
  

• U.K. GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter and down 5.5% YoY
  
  

• Consumer confidence in Canada rose from 88.4 to 90.9 in September

• (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the chocolate ingredient, may decline by as much as 15 percent next season

Baltic Dry to Jump on Chinese Bulk Demand, Cosco Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the main measure of shipping costs for commodities, may surge more than 80 percent by the end of the year on increased demand for shipments to China, according China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co.

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• (WSJ) The White House is close to committing up to $35 billion to help housing agencies provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families.

• Japan's consumer price index fell 2.4%, the fastest pace on record
  
  

• The USDA said there were 66.626 million head of hogs and pigs as of September 1st, down 2.3% YoY
  
  
  

• The U.S. Grains Council sees smaller Chinese corn crop than USDA due to this year's drought. Based on the survey they estimate 2009 Chinese production down 9.7% YoY

Money figures show there's trouble ahead The overwhelming fact is that private spending has slumped in the deficit countries of the Anglosphere, Club Med, and East Europe but has not risen enough in the surplus countries (East Asia and Germany) to compensate. Excess capacity remains near post-war highs across the world.

Yet hawks are already stamping feet at key central banks.

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• (WSJ) The G-20 is near an agreement that would require members to submit economic policies to a type of "peer review." The group also will announce that the G-20 will eclipse the G-8.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.4% in August.
  

• U.S. home sales were at an annual rate of 429,000 in August, up 0.7% from July's pace.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.7 to 73.5 in September .
  

• The USDA said beef production totaled 2.18 billion pounds in August, down 4% YoY.
  

• The USDA said Pork production totaled 1.87 billion pounds in August, up 4% YoY .

• The global sugar deficit in the year starting October 1 may be 8.3 million tons, compared with a June estimate of 5.1 million tons, Switzerland-based sugar broker Kingsman SA said.
  

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• U.S. jobless claims fell 21,000 last week to 530,000
  

• U.S. existing home sales (5.10 million units) fell 2.7% MoM.
  

• U.S. inventory of homes represents an 8.5 month supply at the current sales pace.

• India will extend authorization to import duty-free white sugar until the middle of next year to fill the supply gap.
  
  
• Brazil's center-south 2009/10 sugar output should fall 600,000 tonnes from July's estimate as excess rains have reduced expected cane yields, Job Economia analysts said Wednesday.

• Brazil's 2009-10 center-south sugar cane crush is projected at 529.5 millionmetric tons, down from an April estimate of 550 million tons, the SugarcaneIndustries Association, or Unica, said Thursday.