The Great Cop-Out
… The banks only know for sure whether they have made a profit on a loan, transaction or investment when they get the capital back. That can take 30 years.”

Quick Overview

• U.K. manufacturing output rose 0.9% in July.
  

• Brazil's estimates the 2009-2010 coffee crop at 39 million bags, down from 46 million bags YoY.
  

• Gold prices hit 1000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months.

• Reuters - Switzerland knocked the United States off the position as the world's most competitive economy
  
  

Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, and -0.6pc in Germany.

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.7% -- the number was a little less than expected.
  

• Canada unemployment rate rose from 8.6% to 8.7% in August --better than expected.

Indian Sugar Fears Rain, Frost After Monsoon Heat
India's cane crop, which started small after years of cheap government purchase prices and withered further this summer by poor rain, faces two more hurdles that could yet trigger another flurry of imports, extending a rally that has doubled sugar prices this year to a 28-year high.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services rose from 46.4 to 48.4 in August
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 570,000
  

• Services index in the U.K. rose from 53.2 to 54.1 in August
  

• Services index in Australia rose from 44.1 to 48.0 in August
  

• Retail sales in the EU rose 0.2% in July.
  

• Purchasing Managers Index in the EU rose from 50.0 to 50.4 in August

• Informa's September guess:
• 13.010 billion bushels for corn
• 3.305 billion for beans
• corn yield of 162.6 bushels per acre
• bean yield of 43.1.
  

• In August the USDA estimated:
• corn crop at 12.761 billion with a yield of 159.5
• bean crop of 3.199 billion with a 41.7 yield.

• Weather risk says the new run of the 12z gfs weather model is suggesting a wide spread frost sept. 17,18,19 time period .

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.3%.
  

• YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.9% in Q2. The number of hours worked fell 7.2% and unit labor costs fell 1.2%.
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.2% last week.
  

• GDP in the EU fell 0.2% in Q2
  

• Producer prices in the EU fell 1.0% MoM and 8.4% YoY
  

• Australia's GDP rose 0.6%
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 343.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.0 million barrels to 205.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil are unchanged..
  Refinery use rose from 84.1% to 87.2%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5%
  Distillate demand fell 7.3%
  

• BP the U.K. energy giant said it has made a "giant" oil discovery in a deep well drilled in U.S. waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

• The shortfall in Russia's grain production due to drought is expected to amount to 13 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index rose from 48.9 to 52.9 in August
  
  

• The National Association of Realtor's index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in July and 12% YoY
  
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM and 10.5% YoY.
  
  

• EU unemployment -rose from 8.9% to 9.0% in July
  
  

• U.K. manufacturing fell from 50.2 to 49.7 in August

• India may remove the limit of 1 million metric tons onwhite sugar imports to improve supply

• Pakistan bought 75,000 tons of white sugar from Dubai for $638 a ton, including freight costs

Shipping Rates Seen Falling 50% on China, Fleet Size (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Just as global trade starts to recover, the shipping market is crashing for the second time in a year as China reduces raw-material imports and record numbers of new vessels set sail.

Quick Overview

• Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 43.4 to 50.0 in August
  

• (WSJ) Fed and Treasury officials are scrambling to prevent the commercial-real-estate sector from delivering a roundhouse punch to the U.S. economy as it struggles to recover.

• Japan's industrial production rose 1.9% in July
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in June
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area fell 0.2% in August
  

• India’s GDP rose 6.1%
  

• China will see its deficit of sugar reach 700,000 metric tons this year, the Shanghai Securities News reported. Sugar consumption in the country will reach 14 million tons this year, while supplies will be 13.2 million to 13.3 million tons, the newspaper said.

• Disney is buying Marvel Entertainment in a deal valued at $4 billion

• (Skilling) It's official!Meteorological Summer 2009 (June-August) finishes the cloudiest in 115 yrs of records: Just 53% its possible sun; normal is 67

Brazil ready to infringe US drug patents
Brazil is preparing to infringe patents on US pharmaceutical products, in retaliation against subsidies for US cotton farmers, according to the Brazilian press.
The World Trade Organisation is expected to rule on Monday that Brazil can contravene the drug patents, say the reports.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes were unchanged in July
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 66.0 to 65.7 in August
  

• Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.7% in July.
  

• Japan’s consumer prices fell 2.2% in July

• Japan’s July household spending fell -2.0% (-0.5% expected)

• U.K.'s GDP fell 0.7% in Q2 and 5.5% YoY
  

• EU consumer confidence rose from 76 to 80.6 in August.

• (Bloomberg) -- Sugar-cane output in Brazil is declining after rains this month in parts of the Center South, the world’s biggest producing region, were at their most severe in more than six decades, miller Maurilio Biagi Filho said.

Can the soufflé really rise again?

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 0.25% in Q2 and 3.9% YoY -- better than expected.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 10,000 last week to 570,000 -- better than expected.
  

• (WSJ) The FDIC's insurance fund fell to just $10.4 billion at the end of June, the lowest since the savings and loan crisis, as the banking industry continues to struggle with souring loans.
  

• U.K.'s business investment fell 10% in Q2 and down 18% YoY.
  

• (Farm Futures Bryce Knorr)... the latest two-week American model run shows a dramatic shift, with a major cold front working through the Dakotas and Nebraska as far south as Central Illinois Sept. 10 and 11, which could set up the season's first real frost scare.
  
  

• Shipping Co’s hiking rates:
  Unired Arab Shipping Company announced it is increasing rates from the Far East to Arabian Gulf and Indian subcontinent ports.
  Emirates shipping line has announced rate increases on cargo moving between Far East to the Middle East.
  Maersk hikes rates on full range of intra-America trades. Hapag-Lloyd hikes rates on wide range of secondary trades.
  Mitsui OSK Line is implementing a general rate increase on its Europe-South Africa trade.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 4.9% in July -- best gain in two years.
  

• U.S. new home sales rose 9.6% MoM and fell 13.4% YoY.
  

• Builders had 271,000 houses on the market last month, down 35 percent from July 2008 and the fewest since March 1993. It would take 7.5 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the shortest time since April 2007.
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 36.5% in July.

• Japan’s August Small Business Confidence rose to 41.8 from 41.1 in July

• Germany’s July Import Price Index fell -0.9% MoM

• Business confidence in Germany rose from 87.5 to 90.5 in August
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 200,000 barrels to 343.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.0% to 84.1% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.9% YoY.

• Macquarie estimates Brazilian 2009-10 sugar production at 30.3 million metrictons, down from its previous expectation of between 32 million tons and 33million tons. India's 2009-10 sugar production estimate was revised down to 16million tons from the previous estimate of 17.5 million tons.

The troubling side of Ben Bernanke
Bill White, former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, said the error of the central banking fraternity over past 20 years has been to cut real interest rates ever lower to keep the game going. This has lured the world into a debt trap. The effect is to keep drawing prosperity from the future – until the future arrives.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence rose from 47.4 to 54.1 in August, better than expected.
  

• U.S. June S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 Home Price Index rose 1.4% MoM
  

• Switzerland Q2 Employment fell 0.4% YoY.

• (Bloomberg) -- India may have to ban corn exports for a second season to boost local supplies as the crop wilts under the driest monsoon in seven years, a lobby group for U.S. producers said.

• The worldwide cocoa deficit will widen to 73,000 metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, compared with 62,000 tons a year earlier, the International Cocoa Organization said.

World faces hi-tech crunch as China eyes ban on rare metal exports
“This isn’t about the China holding the world to ransom. They are saying we need these resources to develop our own economy and achieve energy efficiency, so go find your own supplies”, he said.

NASA Satellites Unlock Secret to Northern India's Vanishing Water
Using NASA satellite data, scientists have found that groundwater levels in northern India have been declining by as much as one foot per year over the past decade. Researchers concluded the loss is almost entirely due to human activity.

Quick Overview

• Industrial new orders in the EU fell 0.4% MoM and down 24% YoY
  
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose 1.0% MoM.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 9.644 million head of cattle on feed as of August 1st, down 2.3% YoY
  
  

• The USDA said that there were 60.2 million pounds of frozen pork bellies in storage up 4% YoY
  
  
  

• China's sugar imports in July rose to 132,982 metric tons from 21,910 tons last July.
  
  
  

• China's wheat imports in July up sharply at 85,078 tons versus 373 tons a year ago.
  
  

• China imported 160 mln bu of soybeans in July; up 25% YoY.

• The drought situation in China's northeast appears to be worsening.
  
  

• (TET) The rice yield growth in India at current rate is estimated at 1.18% and needs to be accelerated at 1.75% consistently for a decade, otherwise at 1.18% growth rate, India’s rice production would reach at levels of 108 million tons by 2020 against its projected requirement of 118 million tones.

• Last month, which should have been the height of Mexico’s rainy season, was the second-driest July in at least 68 years, according to the National Water Commission, or Conagua.