Spike Coming in Commodities Prices: Goldman Sachs
As the developed world increasingly begins to consume like Westerners the demands placed on the finite resources of the planet increases. This trend of human populations growing faster than the earth's ability to produce not only impacts food production but that of commodity usage."

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 38,000 last week to 550,000 -- less than expected.
  

• New Zealand Q2 Unemployment Rate rose to 6.0% vs. 5.7% expected and 5.0% in Q1
  

• Australia's unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8% in July
  

• Germany June Factory Orders rose 4.5% MoM (0.6% expected) but fell 25.3% YoY
  

• Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected, and said they would increase the level of quantitative easing (printing) from 125 to 175 billion pounds.
  

• ECB kept rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected
  

• Canada’s June Building Permits rose 1.0% (3.0% expected)
  

• Conab estimates Brazil's 2008-09 soy crop at 57.1 million metric tons, 4.8% below the
  2007-08 harvest of 60 million tons -- unchanged from last month's forecast.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services dropped from 47.0 to 46.4 in July
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.4% in June.
  

• The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 7.2% last week
  

• Germany’s July PMI Services out at 48.1 (48.4 estimate)
  

• EuroZone’s July PMI Services out at 45.7 (45.6 estimate)

• Retail sales in the EU rose 0.1% MoM, but fell 1.7% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing output rose 0.4% MoM
  

• Australia's exports rose 2% MoM
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 349.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery fell from 84.6% to 84.5%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.9% YoY.
  
  
  

• (Bloomberg) Sugar imports by India, the world’s largest consumer, may more than triple in the year starting October as dry weather in key growing areas threatens to lower output, the nation’s fourth-biggest producer said. Purchases may surge to 8 million metric tons, up from an estimated 2.5 million tons this year.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. pending home sales rose 3.6% in June
  

• U.S. personal incomes fell 1.3% in June
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in June
  

• U.K. construction activity rose from 44.5 to 47.0 in June
  

• EU industrial producer prices rose 0.2% MoM but fell down 6.7% YoY.
  

• German retail sales fell 1.8% in June
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 1.4% in June
  

Quick Overview

• Of the two-thirds of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings 74% of them have exceeded expectations.
  

• U.S. manufacturing index rose from 44.8 to 48.9 in July
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.3% MoM but fell 11.4% YoY
  

• Manufacturing in China rose 51.8 to 52.8 in July,
  

• U.K. manufacturing rose from 47.4 to 50.8 in July,
  

• E.U. manufacturing rose from 42.6 to 46.3 in July
  

• Germany’s June Retail Sales fell -1.8% MoM (0.5% expected)
  
  

• (FT) White sugar prices hit their highest level in at least a quarter of century, moving above the $500 a tonne on Monday, boosted by the expectation that India will need to import sugar for the second year in a row.
  

• Ford said July U.S. vehicle sales rose 2.3% YoY
  

Alcoa Razes Rain Forest in Court Case Led by Brazil Prosecutors
The fires men set to clear land for ranches and farms create 6 percent of the carbon dioxide spewed into the air worldwide, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists. That equates to half of all the emissions from cars, trucks, planes, trains and ships in the world.

‘Amazon is the Key’

Brazil has become the planet’s fourth-biggest polluter.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 0.2% in Q2 and 2.4% YoY
  

• YoY the U.S. employment cost index rose 1.8% in June.
  

• Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 39.9 to 43.4 in July
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.5% in May and 3.5% YoY.
  

• Japan’s June Jobless Rate rose to 5.4% (5.3% expected) and 5.2% in May
  

• YoY Japan’s June Household Spending rose 0.2% YoY (0.5% expected)
  

• Unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.8% to 8.9% in June.
  

• EU July CPI fell 0.6%. (-0.4% expected)
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 25,000 last week to 584,000.
  

• Japan's industrial production rose 2.4% in June -- and 8.3% in Q2
• On this news copper rose to the highest close in nine month.

• Canada’s industrial prices rose 0.7% MoM, but fell 5.4% YoY
  

• The USDA said that China bought 70.5 mln bu of soybeans this AM. 4.4 mln bu is old-crop; rest is new-crop.

Quick Overview

• U.S. and Chinese economic leaders pledged to keep up stimulus efforts and to rein in trade and investment imbalances.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.5% in June. Excluding transportation orders rose 1.1%
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 6% last week
  

• Japan June Retail sales fell 3.0% YoY (-2.5% expected)
  

• New Zealand Jul y Business Confidence rose to 18.7 from 5.5 in June.
  

• Germany’s July CPI fell 0.1% MoM and 0.6% YoY (+0.2%/-0.3% expected)
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 5.1 million barrels last week to 347.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.8% to 84.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 10.7% YoY.
  

• Coal supplies at U.S. power plants grew 0.5% WoW and 28% YoY amid unusually feeble summer demand, Genscape said.
  

• Container throughput at China ports fell 10.9% in the first half of 09.
  

• Shanghai’s foreign trade value fell 15.1% YoY but rose 13% MoM
  

• Egypt removed duties from imported sugar to help stabilize the price
  

• India is expected to import up to 5 million tonnes of sugar in 2009/10 Sucden said.

• Monsoon is weakening again in India with little rain forecast in the main bean growing areas next 5 days and longer.

• Microsoft and Yahoo unveiled a 10-year deal to create an online search and advertising partnership to challenge Google

• The determination to spit a cherry stone further than his friends almost killed a German man at the weekend when he fell off his balcony in the process, police said.

Quick Overview

• The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's index of U.S. home prices rose 0.5% in May, but fell 17.1% YoY (17.9% expected) -- The first monthly increase in nearly three years
  

• New Zealand June Trade Balance out at -417M (+215M expected)
  

• MoM Sweden’s June PPI fell -0.8% (+0.1% expected)
  

• Sweden’s June Retail Sales fell -0.4% MoM (-0.3% expected)
  

• GE said the finance arm was on track to earn about $2 billion to $2.5 billion this year.
  

Surging Profit Estimates Signal 26% Rally for S&P 500
(Bloomberg) -- Analysts are raising U.S. profit estimates for the first time since credit markets froze two years ago,..

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. New-home sales rose 11% in June, the third increase in a row and more than expected. September lumber is steady to higher.

• German consumer confidence rose to 3.5 points, up from 3 points -- a 14-month high.
  

• The USDA said on July 1st there were 101.8 million head of cattle in the U.S. down 1.45% YoY and the lowest in 36 years.
  

• There were 9.752 million head of cattle on feed, down 5.3% YoY
  

• (WSJ) After the driest June in 83 years, four of India's 28 provinces have declared drought. More than half of Uttar Pradesh state, India's most populous state and a key rice- and sugar cane-growing region.
  

• IT’s reading of Dow Theory is now bullish.

• The % of ETF's on our list of 718 funds that are up in the last 20 days is at 86%

• New high for the NY Volume Advance Decline Line

• (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian economy had fared well enough that upside risks to the outlook now balanced out those on the downside

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 30,000 last week to 554,000.
  

• U.S. existing home sales rose 3.6% in June.
  

• There is currently a 9.4 month supply of homes for sale in the U.S.
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 36% in June
  

• Sweden’s June Unemployment Rate rose 0.8% to 9.8% in May
  

• Euro Zone May Current Account out at -1.2B vs. -6.1B in Apr.
  

• UK June Retail Sales rose 1.2% MoM vs. -0.9% in May
  

• Canada’s consumer confidence rose from 82.1 to 82.9 in July
  

• The USDA said that there were 579 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 9% YoY
  

• Frozen bellies totaled 76.4 million pounds, up 3% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• US Weekly Consumer Confidence out at -50 as expected
  

• US exports are forecast to fall 13.6% this year, but expected to rise 1.7% next year according to a Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI report.
  

• Australia’s Q2 Consumer Prices rose 0.5% QoQ.
  

• YoY Japan’s June Supermarket Sales fell -4.4%
  

• MoM Euro Zone May Industrial New Orders fell -0.2%
  

• UK July CBI Total Orders Index fell to -59 versus -51 in June.
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose1.2% in May
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.8 million barrels last week to 342.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.9% to 85.8%.
  YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.7%
  YoY Distillate demand fell 11.0%.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Bernanke shed light on the Fed's exit strategy, but made clear to lawmakers that the economy remains too weak to start tightening monetary policy.
  

• Bank of Canada leaves rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected
  

• The U.K.'s June budget deficit of $21.4 billion is the biggest since records began in 1993.
  

• YoY New Zealand June Credit Card Spending fell -2.1%
  

• YoY Japan June Department Store Sales fell -8.8%
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.7% in June, better than expected.
  

• Canada’s May Wholesale Sales dropped -0.3%
  

• UK July House Prices rose +0.6% MoM and -3.1% YoY
  

• Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index fell -0.8% QoQ

• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) more than tripled after the company and GlaxoSmithKline said their experimental lupus drug reduced patients’ symptoms in a yearlong study.

• Germany’s June Producer Prices fell -0.1% MoM

• Cocoa futures rose above a 5-month high on fund buying and better than expected North American Q2 grind data.

• (MarketWatch) -- A package of government bailout packages could cost $23.7 trillion, according to testimony prepared by a special inspector general expected to appear on Capitol Hill this week.

Mobius Says China Market Value to Overtake U.S. in Three Years
China’s market is valued at $3.2 trillion, compared with $11.2 trillion in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has gained 4.1 percent in 2009, while China’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package lifted the Shanghai Composite Index 75 percent this year.

Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons
No doubt Ireland has been the victim of a savagely tight monetary policy e_SEmD given its specific needs. But the deeper truth is that Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the US, and Japan are in varying states of fiscal ruin, and those tipping into demographic decline (unlike young Ireland) have an underlying cancer that is even more deadly. The West cannot support its gold-plated state structures from an aging workforce and depleted tax base.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. Home construction unexpectedly rose 3.6% in June but fell 52% YoY
  

• Australia Q2 Import Price Index fell -6.4% QoQ
  

• China's June Wholesale Prices fell -8.0% YoY
  

• Norway's Q2 Existing Home Prices rose 5.3% YoY
  

• Euro Zone May Construction Output fell -2.0% MoM.
  

• Canada's June CPI rose +0.3% MoM and fell 0.3% YoY
  

• Canada's June Leading Indicators fell -0.1%
  
  

• YoY the USDA expects pork production to fall 3% in Q3 and down 2% Q4
  

• The USDA expects beef production to fall 8% in 2009 and rise 9% in 2010.

• The North American cocoa grind totaled 105,123 tons in Q2, down 6.75% YoY

• More than 650,000 Americans will have used up all of their unemployment benefits by September.
  

• GE announced Q2 2009 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $.26 per share, down 47% from Q2 of 2008.
  

• Blogs claim Microsoft is close to sealing a deal to buy Yahoo's search business

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 47,000 last week to 522,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -2.2 to -7.5 in July.
  

• YoY China's GDP rose 7.9% in Q2 after a 6.1% gain in the previous three months

• China June Producer Price Index fell -7.8% versus -7.2% in May

• China June Consumer Price Index fell -1.7% versus -1.4% in May

• China June Retail Sales rose 15.0% China Jun. Industrial Production rose 10.7% YoY
  

• China’s exports fell 21.4% in June -- that was an improvement over May's record 26.4% drop.
  

• Japan’s tertiary index of services fell 0.1% in May.
  

• The International Coffee Organization raised its estimate of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 126.1 to 128.8 million bags
  

• (FT) CIT said overnight there was no “appreciable likelihood” of a government bailout, leaving the company facing a bankruptcy filing unless another last-minute restructuring deal can be struck.
  

• J.P. Morgan Chase reported a 36% jump in profit.
  

• Imports at the leading container ports increased 5% MoM compared with April, but were down 20% YoY.

• (Economic Times) Jim Rogers "I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver," Rogers said.