Quick Overview

• New Zealand May Retail Sales rose 0.8% MoM
  

• Japan June Consumer Confidence rose to 38.1 from 36.3 in May
  

• Switzerland June Producer and Import Prices were unchanged at 0.0% MoM

• Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, rising 20% in Q2

Europe digs its economic grave while the ECB answers to no one
Nobody knows where the tipping point lies on public debt, though anything above 100pc of GDP in a currency union is courting fate. Some are already there. The European Commission says Italian debt will jump to 116pc in 2010. Greece is vaulting back to 109pc, Belgium to 101pc, France to 86pc.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $25.96 billion in May, its lowest level since November 1999
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 70.8 to 64.6 in July
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in June

• Germany June Wholesale Price Index rose 0.9% MoM but was still down 8.8% YoY
  

• Norway June CPI rose 0.6% MoM
  Norway June Producer Prices rose 8.7% MoM and 0.8 YoY
  

• UK June PPI rose 1.5
  

• US June Import Price Index rose 3.2% MoM
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
  Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
  

• The USDA raised the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 160 to 162 million boxes.
  
  

Shipping Rates Will Decline After Record Rally, Survey Shows
The cost of transporting coal, iron ore and grain by sea will decline this quarter, ending a record rally, a survey showed. The Baltic Dry Index will average 2,950 points in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of seven analysts, traders and fund managers surveyed July 3 to 7. That’s 5 percent less than yesterday’s 3,107 points.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 52,000 last week to 565,000.
  

• China’s car sales rose 48%.
  

• (Bloomberg) China’s new lending more than doubled in June from a month earlier, increasing concerns bad loans and asset bubbles will emerge amid a credit boom.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Tool Orders fell 73.1% YoY

• YoY Japan's wholesale prices fell 6.6% in June , the biggest fall on record

• Australia's unemployment rate rose to a six-year high of 5.8 % in June.
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%
  

• U.K. exports fell 1% in May while imports fell 4%.
  

• Canada's housing starts rose 8% in June.
  

• YoY European Cocoa grindings fell 11.3%
  

India May Face Drought if Monsoon is Weak
"The window of opportunity for planting most kharif crops (rice, coarse grains, soybeans, peanut, cotton and pulses) will be over by mid-July. If rains come in the next week, planting operations will pick up," the report said.

Quick Overview

• The IMF expects the world economy to contract 1.4% in 09, but increase 2.5% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects U.S. GDP to fall 2.6% in 09 and go up 0.8% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects China’s GDP to rise 7.5% in 2009 and up 8.5% in 2010.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Orders fell -3.0% MoM
  

• Australia’s Consumer Confidence rose 9.3%.
  

• Australia’s May Home Loans rose 2.2%.
  

• Switzerland’s June Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%
  

• Sweden May Industrial Production fell -2.7% MoM
  

• Germany’s May Industrial Production rose 3.7% MoM

• Chinese official are touting an expansion of gold holdings by China and suggesting that the increased holdings were needed as a hedge against a long term downtrend in the Dollar
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.9 million barrels to 347.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.0% to 86.8%.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 12.3% YoY.
  
  

• Shares of ICE and CME extended losses following news the CFTC is planning to propose trading limits on oil and natural gas.
  

Quick Overview

• A record 3.23% of U.S. consumer loans were late by 30 days or more, the most since records began in 1974.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will announce today plans to introduce curbs on speculation of commodities including energy
  

• U.K. manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May
  

• Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.0%
  

• Norway May Industrial Production fell -7.8% YoY
  

• UK May Industrial Production fell -0.6% MoM
  

• Germany May Factory Orders rose 4.4% MoM but fell 29.4% YoY
  

• Canada May Building Permits rose 14.8% MoM

• In the U.S. the calls for more stimulus spending are becoming louder.
  

• Is California printing (quantitative easing) its own currency (IOU’s)? More states to follow?

SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH HENRY KISSINGER
'Obama Is Like a Chess Player'
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 86, discusses the painful lessons of the Treaty of Versailles, idealism in politics and Obama's opportunity to forge a peaceful American foreign policy.

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
The rate of biological evolution in humans is about a bit a year,compared to 50,000 new books published in the English language each year, containing on the order of a hundred billion bits of information, Stephen Hawking says. This means we are now entering a new phase of evolution -- "self designed evolution" --

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose from 44.0 to 47.0 in June
  

• Retail sales in the EU-27 fell 0.5% in May.
  

• Euro Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence fell to -31.3 from -27.0 in June
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 51.7 to 51.6 in May
  

• New Zealand June House Prices fell 7.1% YoY
  

• German cocoa grindings fell 15% YoY.

• (FT) India, the world's largest consumer of gold, faces a drop in precious metal imports after the government revealed plans to double import taxes on gold and silver

• Moody's Investors Service has downgraded American ports from "stable" to "negative" as the downturn reduces consumer demand and cargo volumes.
  
  

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking
The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.5% in June
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 16,000 last week to 614,000.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.2%.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.7% to 8.9% in May
  

• The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%.
  

• “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
  

• India is expected to produce 15 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September, down 43% YoY. Demand for the world's top consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, was expected to be 22.5 million tonnes in 2008/09.
  

• Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009.

Quick Overview

• U.S. index of pending home sales rose 0.1% in May
  

• U.S. ISM index of manufacturing rose from 42.8 to 44.8
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.9% MoM and 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s index of services fell 0.1% in April.
  

• U.K.’s index of manufacturing rose from 45.4 to 47.0
  

• Japan's Tankan business confidence rose from -58 to -48
  

• Australia’s May Retail Sales rose 1.0% MoM
  

• China’s June Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 versus 53.1 prior
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 350.2 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.8 million barrel
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 87.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.4% YoY.

• China wants to debate a new reserve currency at next week's G8 meeting

Quick Overview

• Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.6% MoM and 18.1% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP fell 4.9%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.2%,
  

• Japan’s household spending rose 0.3%

• New Zealand June Business Confidence rose to 5.5 from 1.9 in May
  

• UK Consumer Confidence rose to -25 from -27 in May

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY
  

• Canada’s industrial prices fell 1.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY
  

• The USDA said:
  87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
  77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
  59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
  

• The USDA said June grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
  Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
  Wheat were 667 million bushels.

Argentina faces having to import wheat
"Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".

Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.

Quick Overview

• Japan’s May Retail Sales fell 2.8% YoY
  

• Japan’s Industrial output rose 5.9% in May, the third consecutive month of positive gain.
  

• The USDA said there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% YoY.
  

• The USDA said 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% YoY

• Local expert says that Argentina may step out of wheat export market for the first time since 1910 – Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)

• Bernard Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 1.4% in May
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3%.
  

• U.S. savings rate rose 6.9%, the highest in 15 years.
  

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 68.7 to 70.8
  

• QoQ New Zealand’s GDP fell 1.0%
  

• YoY Japan’s CPI fell 1.1% in May
  

• (FT) The People's Bank of China repeated its call for the world to cut its reliance on the dollar, saying it saw serious defects in one currency dominating the global monetary system
  
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% YoY
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 1.72 billion pounds of pork in May, down 5% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1 and 2.5% YoY
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 last week to 627,000.
  

• US Q1 Personal Consumption rose 1.4% vs. 1.5% expected
  

• Euro zone’s index of industrial new orders fell 0.5% MoM and 35% YoY
  

• Sweden’s June Consumer Confidence rose to -9.0 vs. -8.8 expected and -11.0 in May