Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose from 44.0 to 47.0 in June
  

• Retail sales in the EU-27 fell 0.5% in May.
  

• Euro Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence fell to -31.3 from -27.0 in June
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 51.7 to 51.6 in May
  

• New Zealand June House Prices fell 7.1% YoY
  

• German cocoa grindings fell 15% YoY.

• (FT) India, the world's largest consumer of gold, faces a drop in precious metal imports after the government revealed plans to double import taxes on gold and silver

• Moody's Investors Service has downgraded American ports from "stable" to "negative" as the downturn reduces consumer demand and cargo volumes.
  
  

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking
The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.5% in June
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 16,000 last week to 614,000.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.2%.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.7% to 8.9% in May
  

• The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%.
  

• “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
  

• India is expected to produce 15 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September, down 43% YoY. Demand for the world's top consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, was expected to be 22.5 million tonnes in 2008/09.
  

• Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009.

Quick Overview

• U.S. index of pending home sales rose 0.1% in May
  

• U.S. ISM index of manufacturing rose from 42.8 to 44.8
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.9% MoM and 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s index of services fell 0.1% in April.
  

• U.K.’s index of manufacturing rose from 45.4 to 47.0
  

• Japan's Tankan business confidence rose from -58 to -48
  

• Australia’s May Retail Sales rose 1.0% MoM
  

• China’s June Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 versus 53.1 prior
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 350.2 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.8 million barrel
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 87.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.4% YoY.

• China wants to debate a new reserve currency at next week's G8 meeting

Quick Overview

• Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.6% MoM and 18.1% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP fell 4.9%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.2%,
  

• Japan’s household spending rose 0.3%

• New Zealand June Business Confidence rose to 5.5 from 1.9 in May
  

• UK Consumer Confidence rose to -25 from -27 in May

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY
  

• Canada’s industrial prices fell 1.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY
  

• The USDA said:
  87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
  77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
  59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
  

• The USDA said June grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
  Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
  Wheat were 667 million bushels.

Argentina faces having to import wheat
"Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".

Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.

Quick Overview

• Japan’s May Retail Sales fell 2.8% YoY
  

• Japan’s Industrial output rose 5.9% in May, the third consecutive month of positive gain.
  

• The USDA said there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% YoY.
  

• The USDA said 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% YoY

• Local expert says that Argentina may step out of wheat export market for the first time since 1910 – Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)

• Bernard Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 1.4% in May
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3%.
  

• U.S. savings rate rose 6.9%, the highest in 15 years.
  

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 68.7 to 70.8
  

• QoQ New Zealand’s GDP fell 1.0%
  

• YoY Japan’s CPI fell 1.1% in May
  

• (FT) The People's Bank of China repeated its call for the world to cut its reliance on the dollar, saying it saw serious defects in one currency dominating the global monetary system
  
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% YoY
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 1.72 billion pounds of pork in May, down 5% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1 and 2.5% YoY
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 last week to 627,000.
  

• US Q1 Personal Consumption rose 1.4% vs. 1.5% expected
  

• Euro zone’s index of industrial new orders fell 0.5% MoM and 35% YoY
  

• Sweden’s June Consumer Confidence rose to -9.0 vs. -8.8 expected and -11.0 in May
  
  

India Rains May Be Below Average, Worsening Dry Spell
(Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, may be below average this year, denting prospects for bigger crops of rice, oilseeds and sugar cane.

Quick Overview

• (FT) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has revised its World Economic Outlook upwards for the first time in two years, as its latest review concludes that the global economic slide is nearing a bottom
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May. Excluding transportation orders rose 1.1%.
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 0.6%. YoY new home sales are down 38%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels last week to 353.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 100,000 barrels.
  Refinery use increased from 85.9% to 87.1%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9. 3% YoY
  

• (FT) The Swiss franc fell sharply on Wednesday after the country's central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to halt the currency's rise
  

• (Spiegel) A German court has ruled that pupils can rate their teachers online, rejecting a bid by one instructor to shut down a Web site that gave her a low grade.

• Northeast China's Port of Rizhao port handled 16.4 million tonnes of cargo in May, up 26.9 % YoY

Obama vs. Obama

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales rose 2.4% to 4.77 million units in May -- less than expected.
  

• U.S. home prices fell 6.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM.
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. chief executives took a slightly less grim view of the economy in the second quarter, but still plan to cut jobs and capital spending, according to a Business Roundtable survey released on Tuesday.

• Japan's exports in May dropped 40.9% YoY

• Germany’s July Consumer Confidence rose to 2.9 from 2.6 in June
  

• Switzerland May Trade Balance out at 2.01B vs. 2.55B in April.
  

• Euro Zone June PMI Manufacturing out at 42.4 versus 40.7 in May.
  

• Euro Zone June PMI Services out at 44.5 versus. 44.8 in May
  

• The USDA said there were 79.1 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, down 9.5% YoY.
  
• Frozen pork totaled 584.1 million pounds, up 0.8% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice in storage at the end of May were up 0.6% YoY.
  

• (FT) Japanese retail investors, once enamored of Icelandic bank accounts and kiwi bonds, are now turning their purchasing power to Japanese stocks
  

• FedEx CEO says the worst is behind us and is poised for growth in the second half
  

• China has cut the export tax on several steel products to 5% from the 10-15%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Sugar jumped to the highest price since July 2006 on signs that a production deficit may extend into a second year

• China's sugar imports in May rose 26% on year to 141,457 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said.

• India’s sugar output is forecast to drop about 45% to 14.7 million tonnes in the crop year to September.

• (WSJ) Madoff asked a federal judge to sentence him to as little as 12 years in prison. Sentencing of the disgraced financier is scheduled for June 29.
  

Quick Overview

• The World Bank expects world GDP to fall 2.9% in 2009, worse than the 1.7% predicted in March. They expect U.S. GDP to fall 3% and 4.5% in Europe.
  

• Japan's Tankan survey rose from -66.0 to -13.2 in Q2
  

• (Reuters) - The worst of the global economic crisis is over, multi-billionaire financier George Soros told Polish news channel TVN24 on Sunday urging the creation of international regulations to oversee global markets.
  

• The USDA said there were 10.407 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, down 3.8% YoY
  

• China imported 337,230 tons of copper in May, a record high that dropped copper to the lowest level in more than two weeks. It was taken as a signal for a peak in demand from the world's biggest consumer of the red metal.
  

• (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is considering creating a utility to replace the Wall Street banks that handle U.S. repo market transactions, the Financial Times reported on Monday,

Don't believe the hyperinflation hype - dare to make cuts
"If Ben Bernanke and his officials are listening to this sort of stuff and taking it seriously, they are making the same mistake as the Fed in the early 1930s," he said. The US "output gap" is near 7pc. That is a powerful lid on inflation.

Quick Overview

• California's unemployment rate climbed to 11.5% in May
  

• Moody's issued a downgrade warning to California.
  

• YoY Thailand's exports fell 26.6% to $11.7 billion
  

• Mexico cut interest rates to 4.75 %
  

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.8% in April.

• (WSJ) The U.S. and Switzerland agreed to share information on potential tax evaders.

• (WSJ) Chinese regulators have ordered Google to suspend search services for foreign Web sites via its Chinese Web site, a Xinhua report said.
  

• (Reuters) - A "distressingly slow" U.S. housing recovery, with inflation-adjusted home values expected to decline over the next five years, makes it unlikely that housing wealth will drive consumer spending in the next decade, a Reuters/University of Michigan survey found.
  
  
  

China’s Suntech, Denmark’s Vestas Bet on Obama’s Green Energy
“Most of the renewable energy industry worldwide believes that the U.S. will within the next three years become the largest market in the world for solar,” Efird, president of Suntech America, said in an interview.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 608,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -22.6 to -2.2.
  

• U.S. index of leading indicators rose 1.2% in May.
  

• The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China from 6.5% to 7.2%
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1%
  

• U.K. retail sales fell 0.6% in May and 1.6% YoY
  

Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek

The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.