Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -4.4 to -9.4 in June.
  

• (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Monday that risk aversion has eased, while inventory rebuilding and new business spending bode well for an economic recovery that could provide a dramatic surge in corporate profits by year end.
  

• The American recession will be less deep and shorter than initially predicted according to the IMF.

• The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy for the second straight month, and left the overnight lending rate at 0.1 %
  
  

• 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.
  

• Cautious comments from Chinese premier Wen Jibao over the durability of economic recovery in the world's third largest economy weighed on investor enthusiasm.

The crucifixion of Latvia
We know from leaked documents that the Fund advised Latvia to ditch the peg last year. IMF experts were overruled by Brussels. The reason, of course, was to prevent: 1) a chain of falling dominoes in Eastern Europe; 2) a default shock for West European banks with $1.6 trillion (£970bn) of exposure to the region; 3) leakage from Bulgaria across the EU line into Greece – euroland's Achilles heel.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose from 68.7 to 69.0
  
  

• EU industrial production fell 21.6% YoY.
  

• China's retail sales rose 15.2% YoY.
  

• YoY India’s Industrial production rose 1.4% in April
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand rose 0.5% in April.
  

• OPEC expects world oil demand to average 83.8 million barrels per day in 2009, down from last month's estimate of 84.0 mbd.
  

• Crude oil stored on offshore tankers fell 16% in the past two weeks to about 67 million barrels.
  

• Crude oil exports from Iraq reached 2.4 million barrels per day, their highest level since after the U.S.-led invasion.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive Dozens of US cities may have entire neighbourhoods bulldozed as part of drastic "shrink to survive" ..

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in May, the first gain in three months -- much of the gain was due to higher gas prices.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 24,000 last week to 601,000.
  

• China’s copper imports rose 6% in May
  

• China’s urban fixed-asset investment (building railways, oil pipelines, low cost housing) rose 32.9%.
  

• Boeing projects a market for 29,000 new commercial airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion over next 20 years. They project strong global demand, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns.
  

• (Spiegel) The Schönbrunn Zoo in Vienna has launched an art installation that puts its animal’s side-by-side with symbols of humanity's trashing of the environment -- including abandoned cars, rusty bathtubs and toxic waste.

• (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu, causing mostly mild disease outbreaks on four continents, prompted the World Health Organization to declare the first influenza pandemic since 1968

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 as Bank Seizures Loom
Additional U.S. home foreclosures will probably total 6.4 million by mid-2011, and inventories of foreclosed homes awaiting sale will probably peak in mid-2010 at about 2 million properties, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by John Sim wrote in a June 5 report. U.S. prices will likely drop 39 percent on average, they said.

IMF Says New Bonds Not Likely to Be Sold on Secondary Market
Treasury yields climbed this year and the dollar fell in part on concern that foreign central banks would reduce holdings of U.S. financial assets just as the Obama administration sells a record amount of debt to finance a growing budget deficit and pull the economy from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit widened to $29.16 billion in April. Exports fell $2.8 billion to $121.1 billion while imports fell $2.2 billion to $150.3 billion.
  


• (Bloomberg) -- Russia may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the central bank said today.
  


• China's May Producer Price Index fell 7.2% YoY
  

• China's May Purchasing Price Index fell 10.4% YoY.

• YoY China's exports fell 26.4 % in May
  

• Korea kept its interest rate unchanged at an all-time low of 2% for a fourth consecutive month.
  

• Australia's unemployment rose to 5.7% percent from a revised 5.5 % – better than expected.

• Japan's April Machine orders fell 32.8% YoY

• 
  China's May Consumer Price Index fell 1.4% YoY

• USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
  Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
  Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.

• The Department of Agriculture said by August 31 soybean stocks would fall to 110m bushels, the lowest since stocks dropped to 103m bushels in 1976-77.
  

• USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
  Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
  


• The USDA raised its estimate of the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 158 to 160 million boxes. The juice yield was raised from 1.65 to 1.66 gallons per box.

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.4 million barrels to 361.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 86.3% to 85.9%.
  YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
  YoY distillate demand fell 8.4%.
  

The depression quietly deepens
How can it do so when the velocity of circulation has collapsed, and unemployment is rising everywhere? The Fed's "monetary multiplier" ended last week at 0.867, half its average of 1.7 over the last decade. The credit mechanism is still broken. This is what happened in Japan in its Lost Decade.

Quick Overview

• (FT) Defaults on US commercial mortgages could hit 4.1 per cent by the end of the second quarter, their highest level since the 1992 recession, according to Real Estate Econometrics, a property research firm.
  

• Australia's consumer sentiment index rose 12.7% to 100.1

• China's vehicle sales rose 34% in May to 1.12 million,
  

• YoY Germany's exports fell 29% in April
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said.
  

• YoY Corporate bankruptcies in Japan fell 6.7% in May.
  

• The USDA said:
  97% of the corn crop is planted and 69% is rated good to excellent.
  78% of the soybean crop is planted (The five-year average is 87%)
  96% of the spring wheat crop is planted and 72% is rated good to excellent.
  44% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent.
  89% of the cotton crop is planted (The five-year average is90%)
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 8.9% to 9.4%. Non-farm payrolls fell a smaller than expected 345,000.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.4% in May,
  

• Japan's capital spending fell 25.4%

• Shanghai monthly trade value rose 3.7% MoM, but fell 26% YoY
  
  

• (Spiegel) Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, is reporting the country's economy will contract by 6.2 percent in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis. A recovery is expected to start in 2010, but economists warn Germany will struggle at least until 2013.

• University of Illinois projects this year's corn crop at 11.3 bln bu on a yield of 148.6 bu per acre. That would require rationing. Arlan Suderman Farm Futures

Financial regulator seeks powers to curb excess speculation Gensler's proposals seek to curb excessive speculation in these complex markets. They'd standardize many contracts and have them clear on an exchange, much like regulated products on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 621,000
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity increased 1.6% QoQ and 1.9% YoY
  

• Retail sales volume in the EU area rose 0.5% MOM, but fell 1.4% YoY.
  

• France's unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 8.7%
  

• Canada kept interest rates unchanged
  

• England kept interest rates unchanged
  

• European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged
  

• (Reuters) - Medical bills are behind more than 60 percent of U.S. personal bankruptcies, U.S. researchers reported Thursday in a report they said demonstrates that healthcare reform is on the wrong track.
  

• (Spiegel) Two male penguins at a zoo in Bremerhaven, Germany -- who have been a pair for years -- have hatched and raised an abandoned chick as their own.

Latvian debt crisis shakes Eastern Europe
Latvia faces a calamitous hangover after blazing the trail of euro, Swiss franc, and yen mortgages. Fitch Ratings says foreign debt maturing in 2009 is equal to 320pc of foreign reserves.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a cautiously upbeat note on the U.S. economy on Wednesday but warned that corralling government debt was vital to ensuring the nation's long-term health.

• Australia's GDP rose 0.4%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said;
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.9 million barrels to 366.0 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 85.1% to 86.3%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.8% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Pending sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose 6.7% in April -- the biggest monthly gain in over seven years
  

• Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.0%,
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in April,
  

• Manufacturing index in the Euro zone rose from 36.8 to 40.7

• Up to 50% of the Canadian Prairies wheat belt faces serious moisture shortages. Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Citigroup Inc. were removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replaced by Cisco Systems Inc. and Travelers Cos., after the first global recession in 70 years crippled their earnings and sent their shares down more than 90 percent.
  
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.5% in April
  

• U.S. Consumer spending fell 0.1%.
  

• The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 42.8 from 40.1 in April.
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8%
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.3%
  

• YoY Canada’s PPI fell 0.5%.
  

• U.K. manufacturing rose to 45.4 from 43.1
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.3% in April
  

• China’s manufacturing index dropped from 53.5 to 53.1 in May, but expanded for a third month.
  
  
  

Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Rally Since July 1974
Signs of a recovery in the global economy have spurred demand for fuel, industrial metals and crops. Crude oil was poised for the biggest monthly gain in a decade, and gasoline has soared more than 30 percent in May. Gold, silver and copper surged, while corn and soybeans reached the highest since September.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. GDP shrank at a 5.7% annual pace in the first quarter.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.1 to 68.7
  

• The Institute for Supply Management’s business barometer decreased to 34.9 from 40.1 in April
  
  

• Japan’s retail sales rose 0.6% in April,
  Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.0%
  

• India’s GDP rose 5.8% Q1.

• Poland's GDP grew by 0.8% in the first three months of 2009.
  

• U.K. house prices rose 1.2% in May

• Japan Apr. Housing Starts fell 32.4% YoY
  

• Germany Apr. Retail Sales rose 0.5% MoM but fell 0.8% YoY

• Sweden’s Q1 GDP fell 0.9% QoQ
  

• Swiss Leading Indicators fell 1.86 %

• (Bloomberg) -- Starbucks Corp., the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, is pushing some U.S. landlords for as much as a 25 percent reduction in lease rates, taking advantage of a declining real estate market to save on rent.

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.9% in April -- stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 last week to 623,000.
  
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales fell 2.9% in April

• Japan’s industrial production rose 5.2% MoM

• Swiss April Trade Balance out at 2.56B vs. 0.12B in March.

• Germany’s May Unemployment Rate out at 8.2% vs. 8.4% expected and 8.3% in April.
  

• Euro Zone May Consumer Confidence was steady at -31 vs. -30 expected
  

• YoY Russia’s GDP fell 10.5% in April.
  

• South Africa’s lowered its benchmark interest rate by 1% to 7.5%
  

• OPEC met and kept official production levels unchanged
  

• The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate rose to 9.12% and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37%.

• According to the U.S. Census Bureau MoM U.S. new home sales rose 0.3%, but fell 34% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.4 million barrels to 363.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.8% to 85.1%
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
• Distillate demand fell 9.9% YoY

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 2.9% MoM

• Malaysia's GDP shrank a sharper-than-expected 6.2% in Q1
  

• YoY Japan's export fell 38.1% in April, but rose 1.9% MoM
  

• A survey of 45 forecasters found three-quarters expect the economic downturn to end by Q3
  

• The USDA said:
  82% of the corn crop was planted, up from 62% last week. The five-year average for this date is 93%.
  48% of the soybean crop was planted, up from 25% last week. The five-year average for this date is 65%.
  79% of the spring wheat crop was planted, up from 50% last week. The five-year average for this date is 95%.
  61% of the cotton crop was planted, up from 42% last week.

• Global oil demand is picking up, supported by higher consumption in China, so said Ali Naimi Saudi Arabia's oil minister – he is predicting $80 oil as economies recover.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence rose from 40.8 to 54.9 in May -- the highest since September.
  

• YoY the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 18.7% in March.
  

• (FT) Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis
  
  

• A total of $162 billion of U.S. treasuries will be auctioned over the next 3 days.

Quick Overview

• Germany’s business climate index rose to 84.2 from 83.7 in April.
  
  

• Colombia’s April coffee production fell 61% to 345,000, versus 886,000 60-kilogram bags in April last year. Total coffee production in Colombia fell 25% YoY. YoY Coffee exports fell 14%.
  
  

• India's Farm Minister said the federal government may extend the deadline for duty-free raw sugar imports beyond July 31. India's sugar output has fallen to 14.7 million tons in the year ending September from 26.3 million tons a year earlier.
  
  

• The right price range for oil is between $60-75 per barrel, Russia's energy minister said.
  

US bonds sale faces market resistance
The Obama administration needs to raise $2 trillion this year to cover the fiscal stimulus plan and the bank bail-outs. It has to fund $900bn by September.

Gold bugs at last have their perfect trinity
China has doubled its bullion reserves and left us in no doubt that it will spend more of its $40bn monthly surplus on hard assets rather than the toxic paper of Western democracies.

FX OUTLOOK-US debt ratings worries to weigh on dollar Bill Gross, manager of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under selling pressure.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) Stocks rose on Friday as investors snapped up shares of multinational companies, including McDonald's Corp, on hopes that a weaker dollar would underpin profitability

• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.3% in March
  

• U.K.'s GDP fell 1.9% QoQ and 4.1% YoY.
  

• Singapore’s GDP fell 10.1% YoY.
  

• China's copper imports rose 7% MoM and up 149% YoY
  

• The USDA said the U.S. beef production totaled 5.13 billion pounds of beef in April down 5% YoY.
  

• The USDA said the U.S. pork production totaled 1.92 billion pounds in April, down 5% YoY
  

• The USDA expects world sugar ending stocks at 19% of annual use, making it the lowest stocks to use ratio in 16 years.
  

• A report on ethanol predicted world demand for ethanol will rise 9.3% per year for five years.
  

Nomura Says Sell the Dollar as Central Banks Reduce Holdings
The share of Russia’s dollar holdings fell to 41.5 percent of reserves, from 45 percent as of Nov. 1, while the portion of euros rose to 47.5 percent from 44 percent, according to the central bank’s annual report

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 1%, more than forecast.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 631,000.
  

• European manufacturing and services index rose from 41.1 to 43.9
  

• Japan's Trade index of services fell 4%
  

• YOY Mexico’s GDP fell 8.2% in Q!
  

• YoY Taiwan’s GDP fell 10.2% in Q1.