Quick Overview

• U.S. CPI fell 0.1% in March and 0.4% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% MoM and 1.8% YoY.
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing rose from -38.2 to - 14.7
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 1.5% in March.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 5.6 million barrels to 366.7 million barrels
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline fell 900,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 81.8% to 80.4%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.7% YoY.

• Coal stocks at U.S. power plants rose 1% WoW and 17.1 YoY. Electric companies had 164.3 million short tons of coal stockpiled, compared with 162.7 million tons reported last Tuesday and 140.2 million tons the same week last year.
  

• Russia’s Gazprom estimates its end-2008 reserves at 217.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the company said, representing an increase of 11% from 2007, when Gazprom's reserves were 196.4 billion.
  

• UBS , raised its shareholdings in China Shipping Container Lines to 6.97% from the previous 4.5%.
  

• Chinese manufacturers at Asia’s biggest export fair say orders are starting to recover.

• Ukrainian industrial production fell 30.4%, the eighth consecutive decline.

• Zinc rose to the highest level in six months on speculation demand is increasing in China.
  

Cross Your Fingers and Carry On I just don’t get it. Let’s assume that there is only a 10% chance that the International Energy Agency and everybody else predicting that global oil supplies will soon peak or plateau are right. That still makes peak oil about 100,000 times more likely than a smallpox outbreak in the United Kingdom.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices fell 1.2% in March and 3.5% YoY.
  
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in March vs. expected 0.2% rise
  
  
  

• Bernanke sees signs economic decline leveling out.
  
  

• Undeterred, Somali pirates hijacked three more ships.

• Germany joins France, Austria, Hungary, Greece and Luxembourg in banning the cultivation of GM corn, claiming that Monsanto’s MON 810 is dangerous for the environment.

• The world could run out of oil in 20 years. This grim scenario is not the prediction of environmentalists, but of Michel Mallet, the general manager of French energy giant Total's German operations.
  
  

Cash Beats Stocks for First Time in U.S. Survey
Investors had a record 45 percent of assets in cash, including money-market investments, and a record-low equity allocation of 41 percent in March, according to the survey data. Historical averages are 25 percent and 60 percent, respectively.

Obama Opposes Right for Detainees in U.S. Military Prisons to Challenge Their Detention
After seeking adopting Bush positions on unlawful surveillance last week, President Obama has adopted another controversial Bush policy: opposing basic legal rights for detainees held in U.S. military prison in Afghanistan. Some of the most egregious allegations of torture and abuse have focused on such prisons as the one at Bagram Air base. President Obama is now claiming that access to courts and review in such cases would threaten national security.

Quick Overview

• YoY Japan’s producer prices fell 2.2% in March
  

• China's official Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.4 in March from 49.0 in February -- the first time the index has been expanding since September.

• Industrial output in China rose 8.3% in March

• YoY China's currency reserves grew by 16% in the first quarter. This puts China's currency reserves at US$1.9537 Trillion
  

• MoM Chinese copper imports rose 14 % to a record 374,957 metric tons.
  

• China, may import corn from the U.S. as prices are now competitive compared with local supplies Chinas National Grain and Oils Information Center said.
  

• India ended its 60% import duty on sugar in an effort to relieve a shortage at home.

Quick Overview

• April 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s new lending surged more than sixfold from a year earlier to a record 1.89 trillion yuan ($277 billion) in March, adding to signs that growth in the world’s third-biggest economy is gathering pace. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 25.5 percent, the central bank said.
  
  

• MoM US air freight fell 21% in February, the lowest industry level in eight years.
  
  

• Chinese rail cargo volume fell 4.8% in January.
  

• Thousands of homes in Florida are believed to contain potentially toxic Chinese drywall, officials said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 last week to 654,000.
  

• The Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit fell to $26 billion from a revised $36 billion in January.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 7.7% to 8.0% in March
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was lowered from 1.74 to 1.70 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 185 to 165 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 712 to 696 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 981,000 to 1.29 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 7.3 to 6.7 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 145 to 143 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 46 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 156 to 158 million tons.
  Cotton was raised to 63 million bales.
  

• The USDA reduced its guess of Argentina's soybean crop from 43 to 39 million tons
  
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of 2009 beef production to 26.44 billion pounds,
  

• The USDA reduced its estimate of 2009 pork production to 22.775 billion pounds, down 2% YoY.
  

Worldwide shipping rates set to tumble 74%
“We expect industry fundamentals [for bulk carriers] to deteriorate further as demand continues to remain weak and the large order book begins to be delivered,” wrote Nomura’s Andrew Lee in a note to clients. On container shipping, the outlook is similarly miserable: “International routes are loss-making and are likely to remain so,” he said.

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 4.7%.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.6% MoM, but fell14.3%YoY
  

• U.S. wholesale inventories fell 1.5% in February and down 1.7% YoY
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 361.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.7% to 81.8% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% from YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.2% YoY.
  

• Australia’s consumer sentiment rose 8.3% in April.
  Australia reduced its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00%,
  

• Iceland reduced its interest rate from 17.0% to 15.5%.

• As of end of February, northeastern China's port of Qingdao has handled 1.64 million TEU during this year, up 2.2% compared to the same period in 2008, Xinhua reported.
  

• Japanese machinery orders rose 1.4%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Prime Minister Taro Aso may unveil a 15.4 trillion yen stimulus package ($154 billion) to help revive an economy headed toward the worst recession since World War II.
  

• Australia’s jobless rate rose in March to 5.7% from 5.2%.
  
  

Is Governor Zhou a closet Bernanke-ite?
..Notice to my students: learn more about how to resolve and restructure bad loans. This will be a great career option for you over the next few years.

Updates resume April 8

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rose from 8.1% to 8.5% in March, pushing total job losses since the recession started 16 months ago past five million.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 41.6 to 40.8 in March
  

• An index of services in the U.K. rose from 43.2 to 45.5 in March.
  

• Indonesia reduced its interest rate from 7.75% to 7.50%.
  

• Median salary and bonuses for the CEOs of 200 big U.S. companies fell 8.5% to $2.24 million last year.
  
  

• (Reuters) - The Obama Administration on Friday said they expect the economy to begin turning the corner by the end of the year with job growth coming some months after that.
  
  
  

The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency The world is a step closer to a global currency, backed by a global central bank, running monetary policy for all humanity.

Quick Overview

• Chinas Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in March from 49 in February

• (Reuters) - Leaders of the G20 nations agreed on Thursday to pump an additional trillion dollars into the troubled global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

• U.S. jobless claims rose 12,000 last week to 669,000
  
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.8% in February.

• The American Trucking Associations' advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose by 1.7% in February, marking the second MoM increase in a row.
  

• Russia's economy shrank by 7% in the first quarter of 2009
  
  
  

• The European Central Bank reduced its interest rate from 1.50% to 1.25
  

• U.K. home prices rose 0.9% in March
  
  

• (Bloomberg) -- The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by U.S. lawmakers and financial companies, voted to relax fair-value rules that Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. say don’t work when markets are inactive.
  The changes to so-called mark-to-market accounting allow companies to use “significant” judgment when gauging the price of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities. Analysts say the measure may reduce banks’ writedowns and boost their first-quarter net income by 20 percent or more. FASB voted on the rules at a meeting today in Norwalk, Connecticut..

• Shanghais February trade value fell 30.6% YoY to US$28.96 billion, the fourth consecutive month of decline, Xinhua reported

• According to a survey by London’s Barclays Plc., almost 41%, or 436,000, of Singapore’s households will have assets of at least $1 million by 2017, compared with 39% in Hong Kong and 28% in Switzerland

Quick Overview

• ADP said U.S. employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in Feb.

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing rose from 35.8 to 36.3 in March

• The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending U.S. home sales rose 2.1% in February
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area rose from 8.3% to 8.5% in February

• Australia Feb. Building Approvals rose 7.8% MoM
  
  

• Germany Feb. Retail Sales fell -0.2% MoM and -5.3% YoY
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 2% in February
  

• Japan's Tankan survey of business sentiment fell from -24 to a new record low of -58
  

• China Purchasing Managers Index fell to 44.8 in March from 45.1

• The global container shipping industry is showing signs of improving in the second quarter, United Arab Shipping Company told Emirates Business.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 359.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.0% to 81.7%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.1% YoY.
  

Website of the Day

Quick Overview

• YoY the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities fell 19% in January
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose from 25.3 to 26.0 in March
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 34.2 to 31.4 in March.
  
  

• Japans jobless rate rose to 4.4% last month from 4.1% in January. Some 77% of jobless people aren’t getting unemployment benefits, the highest figure among Group of Seven nations except Italy.
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.7% in January and down 2.4% YoY.
  

• Germany’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.1% in March
  

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. improved from -35 to -30,
  
  

• The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
  Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
  Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
  Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
  

• The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
  84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
  76.02 million acres of soybeans.
  58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
  8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Global stock markets dived today after the White House denied General Motors and Chrysler multi-billion dollar bailouts and threatened to push the carmakers into bankruptcy.
  
  

• MoM Japanese industrial output fell 9.4% in February
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japanese companies cut inventories at an unprecedented pace in February and said they would increase production in coming months, indicating the worst of the country’s manufacturing slump may be over.
  

• Economic sentiment in the Euro area fell from 65.3 to 64.6 in March
  

• Australia's new home sales rose 3.9% in February

• Soros said on Saturday it was "conceivable" that Britain would have to resort to a bailout from the International Monetary Fund
  

• The USDA said there were 65.389 million head of hogs on March 1st, down 2.7% YoY.
  

• China's ambassador to the U.K. said Beijing isn't calling for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar.
  

• The World Bank has given warning of serious social discontent in Russia after delivering a bleak assessment of the country's economy.
  
  
  

Only a united front at the London G20 can save the world from ruin
The risk is that this G20 becomes the defining moment when a disgusted American political class – sorely provoked – turns its back on the open trading system. The US alone has the strategic depth to clear its own path, and might find eager partners in a "pro-growth bloc" – much as Britain led a reflation bloc behind Imperial Preference in the early 1930s. As the world's top exporters, Germany and China should take great care to restrain their body language this week.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes fell 0.2% in February
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 56.3 to 57.3 in March
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area fell 3.4% MoM and down 34% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP was down 1.6% in Q4
  

• YoY Japan retail sales fell 5.8% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell at a 6.3% annual rate in Q4.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 8,000 last week to 652,000.
  

• Canada’s lumber production fell 23% YoY
  

• YoY U.K. retail sales rose 0.4% in February
  

• Mary Schapiro told the Senate Banking Committee she is drafting proposals to toughen oversight on everything from money-market funds to investment advisers.

• (Bloomberg) -- Chinese solar stocks rose the most ever in New York trading after China, the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitter, introduced a subsidy to promote the use of alternative energy.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Durables orders rose 3.4% in February, stronger than expected . Excluding transportation orders rose 3.9%
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 32% last week
  

• The U.K. must do whatever is necessary to resume growth, with deflation the main concern in the short term, Gordon Brown said.
  

• German business sentiment fell from 82.6 to 82.1 in March
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 50% in February
  

• (WSJ) The 25 highest-earning hedge-fund managers received a combined $11.6 billion in pay in 2008.
  

• (WSJ) California's jobless rate will climb to a staggering 11.9 percent between April and June next year, and double-digit unemployment will linger in the most populous U.S. state at least through 2011, according to a new economic forecast.

Website of the Day

The Big Takeover
..There is a reason it used to be a crime in the Confederate states to teach a slave to read: Literacy is power. In the age of the CDS and CDO, most of us are financial illiterates..

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• The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks decreased $6.3 trillion in the third quarter, or 3%, to $175.8 trillion.
  
  Notional Amount: The nominal or face amount that is used to calculate payments made on swaps and other risk management products. This amount generally does not change hands and is thus referred to as notional.

• Fourth quarter U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = $14,2 trillion

Quick Overview

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -51 to -20 in March -- better than expected.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 3.2% in February.
  

• The world outgrew the gold standard decades ago. But a "paper gold" standard might be one way out of the global financial crisis. Zhou Xiaochuan governor of China's central bank said.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Futures Exchange will begin trading steel contracts on March 27 after an eight-year preparation, helping steelmakers hedge against financial risks.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. existing home sales rose 5.1% at their fastest pace in nearly six years. The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million. Unsold homes on the market represented 9.7 months’ worth at the current sales pace. YoY the median price fell 15.5% to $165,400.
  
  

• The Obama's administration has unveiled a plan designed to give the ailing economy a boost by luring private investors into taking over up to 1 trillion in "toxic" assets.
  

• Canada’s leading indicators fell 1.1% in February
  

• Construction output rose 1.3% in the Euro area but fell 9.1% YoY.
  

• Argentine farmers plan to halt sales of soybeans/corn for a week to protest against export taxes.

From now on, think of the US as a bigger Zimbabwe
For readers who may not know, Mr Gono is governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. He'll be feeling particularly pious this weekend – as the mighty US has, indeed, just started printing money. We're supposed to call it "quantitative easing", I know. But if Mr Gono can tell it as it is, why can't we?

A gold bubble may well be coming our way
In the stagflationary conditions of 1980, the gold price peaked at $875, the equivalent of $2,300 today. However the rise to 1980’s inflation levels was gradual; monetary policy in the 1970s was only moderately over-expansive and the US fiscal deficit was modest by current standards.

Including the Fed’s March 18 announcement of further monetary stimulus, monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally are far more inflationary than in the 1970s. Consequently, there’s a real threat that if inflation returns, it will do so violently.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales rose 1.9%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 3.5% in January
  

• Mexico’s cut the lending rate to 6.75%
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. congressional analysts are expected on Friday to forecast even more red ink than expected, a record $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal 2009..