Worldwide shipping rates set to tumble 74%
“We expect industry fundamentals [for bulk carriers] to deteriorate further as demand continues to remain weak and the large order book begins to be delivered,” wrote Nomura’s Andrew Lee in a note to clients. On container shipping, the outlook is similarly miserable: “International routes are loss-making and are likely to remain so,” he said.

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 4.7%.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.6% MoM, but fell14.3%YoY
  

• U.S. wholesale inventories fell 1.5% in February and down 1.7% YoY
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 361.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.7% to 81.8% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% from YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.2% YoY.
  

• Australia’s consumer sentiment rose 8.3% in April.
  Australia reduced its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00%,
  

• Iceland reduced its interest rate from 17.0% to 15.5%.

• As of end of February, northeastern China's port of Qingdao has handled 1.64 million TEU during this year, up 2.2% compared to the same period in 2008, Xinhua reported.
  

• Japanese machinery orders rose 1.4%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Prime Minister Taro Aso may unveil a 15.4 trillion yen stimulus package ($154 billion) to help revive an economy headed toward the worst recession since World War II.
  

• Australia’s jobless rate rose in March to 5.7% from 5.2%.
  
  

Is Governor Zhou a closet Bernanke-ite?
..Notice to my students: learn more about how to resolve and restructure bad loans. This will be a great career option for you over the next few years.

Updates resume April 8

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rose from 8.1% to 8.5% in March, pushing total job losses since the recession started 16 months ago past five million.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 41.6 to 40.8 in March
  

• An index of services in the U.K. rose from 43.2 to 45.5 in March.
  

• Indonesia reduced its interest rate from 7.75% to 7.50%.
  

• Median salary and bonuses for the CEOs of 200 big U.S. companies fell 8.5% to $2.24 million last year.
  
  

• (Reuters) - The Obama Administration on Friday said they expect the economy to begin turning the corner by the end of the year with job growth coming some months after that.
  
  
  

The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency The world is a step closer to a global currency, backed by a global central bank, running monetary policy for all humanity.

Quick Overview

• Chinas Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in March from 49 in February

• (Reuters) - Leaders of the G20 nations agreed on Thursday to pump an additional trillion dollars into the troubled global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

• U.S. jobless claims rose 12,000 last week to 669,000
  
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.8% in February.

• The American Trucking Associations' advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose by 1.7% in February, marking the second MoM increase in a row.
  

• Russia's economy shrank by 7% in the first quarter of 2009
  
  
  

• The European Central Bank reduced its interest rate from 1.50% to 1.25
  

• U.K. home prices rose 0.9% in March
  
  

• (Bloomberg) -- The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by U.S. lawmakers and financial companies, voted to relax fair-value rules that Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. say don’t work when markets are inactive.
  The changes to so-called mark-to-market accounting allow companies to use “significant” judgment when gauging the price of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities. Analysts say the measure may reduce banks’ writedowns and boost their first-quarter net income by 20 percent or more. FASB voted on the rules at a meeting today in Norwalk, Connecticut..

• Shanghais February trade value fell 30.6% YoY to US$28.96 billion, the fourth consecutive month of decline, Xinhua reported

• According to a survey by London’s Barclays Plc., almost 41%, or 436,000, of Singapore’s households will have assets of at least $1 million by 2017, compared with 39% in Hong Kong and 28% in Switzerland

Quick Overview

• ADP said U.S. employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in Feb.

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing rose from 35.8 to 36.3 in March

• The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending U.S. home sales rose 2.1% in February
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area rose from 8.3% to 8.5% in February

• Australia Feb. Building Approvals rose 7.8% MoM
  
  

• Germany Feb. Retail Sales fell -0.2% MoM and -5.3% YoY
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 2% in February
  

• Japan's Tankan survey of business sentiment fell from -24 to a new record low of -58
  

• China Purchasing Managers Index fell to 44.8 in March from 45.1

• The global container shipping industry is showing signs of improving in the second quarter, United Arab Shipping Company told Emirates Business.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 359.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.0% to 81.7%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.1% YoY.
  

Website of the Day

Quick Overview

• YoY the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities fell 19% in January
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose from 25.3 to 26.0 in March
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 34.2 to 31.4 in March.
  
  

• Japans jobless rate rose to 4.4% last month from 4.1% in January. Some 77% of jobless people aren’t getting unemployment benefits, the highest figure among Group of Seven nations except Italy.
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.7% in January and down 2.4% YoY.
  

• Germany’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.1% in March
  

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. improved from -35 to -30,
  
  

• The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
  Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
  Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
  Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
  

• The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
  84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
  76.02 million acres of soybeans.
  58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
  8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Global stock markets dived today after the White House denied General Motors and Chrysler multi-billion dollar bailouts and threatened to push the carmakers into bankruptcy.
  
  

• MoM Japanese industrial output fell 9.4% in February
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japanese companies cut inventories at an unprecedented pace in February and said they would increase production in coming months, indicating the worst of the country’s manufacturing slump may be over.
  

• Economic sentiment in the Euro area fell from 65.3 to 64.6 in March
  

• Australia's new home sales rose 3.9% in February

• Soros said on Saturday it was "conceivable" that Britain would have to resort to a bailout from the International Monetary Fund
  

• The USDA said there were 65.389 million head of hogs on March 1st, down 2.7% YoY.
  

• China's ambassador to the U.K. said Beijing isn't calling for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar.
  

• The World Bank has given warning of serious social discontent in Russia after delivering a bleak assessment of the country's economy.
  
  
  

Only a united front at the London G20 can save the world from ruin
The risk is that this G20 becomes the defining moment when a disgusted American political class – sorely provoked – turns its back on the open trading system. The US alone has the strategic depth to clear its own path, and might find eager partners in a "pro-growth bloc" – much as Britain led a reflation bloc behind Imperial Preference in the early 1930s. As the world's top exporters, Germany and China should take great care to restrain their body language this week.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes fell 0.2% in February
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 56.3 to 57.3 in March
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area fell 3.4% MoM and down 34% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP was down 1.6% in Q4
  

• YoY Japan retail sales fell 5.8% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell at a 6.3% annual rate in Q4.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 8,000 last week to 652,000.
  

• Canada’s lumber production fell 23% YoY
  

• YoY U.K. retail sales rose 0.4% in February
  

• Mary Schapiro told the Senate Banking Committee she is drafting proposals to toughen oversight on everything from money-market funds to investment advisers.

• (Bloomberg) -- Chinese solar stocks rose the most ever in New York trading after China, the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitter, introduced a subsidy to promote the use of alternative energy.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Durables orders rose 3.4% in February, stronger than expected . Excluding transportation orders rose 3.9%
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 32% last week
  

• The U.K. must do whatever is necessary to resume growth, with deflation the main concern in the short term, Gordon Brown said.
  

• German business sentiment fell from 82.6 to 82.1 in March
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 50% in February
  

• (WSJ) The 25 highest-earning hedge-fund managers received a combined $11.6 billion in pay in 2008.
  

• (WSJ) California's jobless rate will climb to a staggering 11.9 percent between April and June next year, and double-digit unemployment will linger in the most populous U.S. state at least through 2011, according to a new economic forecast.

Website of the Day

The Big Takeover
..There is a reason it used to be a crime in the Confederate states to teach a slave to read: Literacy is power. In the age of the CDS and CDO, most of us are financial illiterates..

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• The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks decreased $6.3 trillion in the third quarter, or 3%, to $175.8 trillion.
  
  Notional Amount: The nominal or face amount that is used to calculate payments made on swaps and other risk management products. This amount generally does not change hands and is thus referred to as notional.

• Fourth quarter U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = $14,2 trillion

Quick Overview

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -51 to -20 in March -- better than expected.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 3.2% in February.
  

• The world outgrew the gold standard decades ago. But a "paper gold" standard might be one way out of the global financial crisis. Zhou Xiaochuan governor of China's central bank said.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Futures Exchange will begin trading steel contracts on March 27 after an eight-year preparation, helping steelmakers hedge against financial risks.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. existing home sales rose 5.1% at their fastest pace in nearly six years. The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million. Unsold homes on the market represented 9.7 months’ worth at the current sales pace. YoY the median price fell 15.5% to $165,400.
  
  

• The Obama's administration has unveiled a plan designed to give the ailing economy a boost by luring private investors into taking over up to 1 trillion in "toxic" assets.
  

• Canada’s leading indicators fell 1.1% in February
  

• Construction output rose 1.3% in the Euro area but fell 9.1% YoY.
  

• Argentine farmers plan to halt sales of soybeans/corn for a week to protest against export taxes.

From now on, think of the US as a bigger Zimbabwe
For readers who may not know, Mr Gono is governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. He'll be feeling particularly pious this weekend – as the mighty US has, indeed, just started printing money. We're supposed to call it "quantitative easing", I know. But if Mr Gono can tell it as it is, why can't we?

A gold bubble may well be coming our way
In the stagflationary conditions of 1980, the gold price peaked at $875, the equivalent of $2,300 today. However the rise to 1980’s inflation levels was gradual; monetary policy in the 1970s was only moderately over-expansive and the US fiscal deficit was modest by current standards.

Including the Fed’s March 18 announcement of further monetary stimulus, monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally are far more inflationary than in the 1970s. Consequently, there’s a real threat that if inflation returns, it will do so violently.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales rose 1.9%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 3.5% in January
  

• Mexico’s cut the lending rate to 6.75%
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. congressional analysts are expected on Friday to forecast even more red ink than expected, a record $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal 2009..

California February home sales up 42.5 percent February was the eighth straight month that California home sales rose from year-earlier levels and was the first time since May 2007 that the median home price did not decline from the prior month, according to MDA DataQuick

Financial Crisis Caused by a 'Culture of Complicity'
Beyond that, if the situation for the bank is truly hopeless or if the management is truly corrupt, then the incentive is to loot the institution, to take as much money out of it -- e.g. in the shape of bonuses and dividends -- before the true state of the books is discovered.

Naked Short Sales Hint Fraud in Bringing Down Lehman (Update1)
While the commission’s Enforcement Complaint Center received about 5,000 complaints about naked short-selling from January 2007 to June 2008, none led to enforcement actions, according to a report filed yesterday by David Kotz, the agency’s inspector general.

Quick Overview

• March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to spend about $10 million on new offices for Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit and his lieutenants, after the U.S. government injected $45 billion of cash into the bank.

• U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 646,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -41.3 to -35.0
  

• U.S. leading indicators fell 0.4% in February
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.4%.

• The White House is planning up to $5 billion in financing assistance to beleaguered auto-parts suppliers.
  
  

• (Reuters) - General Electric Co expects GE Capital to be profitable this year, though if the economy deteriorates to the Federal Reserve's adverse case, the finance unit could post break-even results, executives said.

Up in arms
..America accounted for 45% of the world's military spending—$1.2 trillion in 2007—more than the next 14 biggest countries combined.

.. 10-Year Treasury Yields Fall Most Since 1962
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks and Treasuries surged and the dollar tumbled after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced plans to buy $1 trillion of bonds in an effort to lower consumer borrowing costs and end the recession.

Quick Overview

• (FOMC) ..Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% MoM and 0.2% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in February and up 1.8% YoY.

• U.K. unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from from 6.3% a month ago
  

• Japan intends to buy $18 billion of government bonds this month to support the economy.
  

• Chile's central bank says the nation's economy grew by 3.2 % in 2008 down from 4.7 % growth in 2007.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels to 353.3 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.7% to 82.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1% YoY

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 22% MoM better than expected, but fell 47% YoY.
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% MoM and fell 1.3% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in February.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 5.4% MoM.