Hidden Swap Fees by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Hit School Boards
What New York-based JPMorgan Chase didn't tell them, the transcript shows, was that the bank would get more in fees than the school district would get in cash: $1 million. The complex deal, which placed taxpayer money at risk, was linked to four variables involving interest rates. Three years later, as interest rate benchmarks went the wrong way for the school district, the Erie board paid $2.9 million to JPMorgan to get out of the deal, which officials now say they didn't understand.

Wheat Rallies, Extending Record in Minneapolis, on Low Supply
Another concern for farmers in the northern Plains is finding enough spring-wheat seed to plant. Supplies are low because some growers who normally grow seed wheat sold their crop as prices rose, said Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio.

Quick Overview

• U.S. lost 17,000 non-farm jobs in January. This was the first monthly loss in 4-1/2 years and increases the likelihood the Fed will cut interest rates another half point next month.
  
  

• Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo for $45 billion in stock and cash.
  
  

• The Institute of Supply Managements' manufacturing index rose from 48.4 to 50.7
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.1% MoM, and 2.6% YoY.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 75.5 to 78.4
  
  

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• MBIA Inc. Chief Executive Dunton dismissed bankruptcy rumors and expects to keep AAA rating.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 69,000 to 375,000, more than expected and the most in over two years.
  

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.5%
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.

• U.S. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.8%

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 56.4 to 51.5
  

• Russia’s GDP rose 8.1% in 2007
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in November and 2.7% YoY
  

• Euro area unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 7.2%.
  

• The U.S. DoE said underground supplies of natural gas fell 274 billion cubic feet last week to 2.262 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 13% YoY
  

Putting it in Reverse
On that point, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich writes, "America's middle classes are no longer coping." He notes that the fixes proposed by Bernanke and Bush will not help much, because the middle classes have run out of "coping mechanisms." The short version of the story is that the typical man earns less, in real terms, than he did 37 years ago. "The income of a young man in his 30s is now 12 per cent below that of a man his age three decades ago." Families have struggled to increase their standards of living, first by putting women to work…second, by working longer hours…third, by turning to credit. The workplace is now dominated by over-indebted women who work night and day.

Quick Overview

• The Fed cut its key lending rate by one-half percentage point to 3%,

• U.S. GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, weaker than expected.
  

• Industrial output in Japan rose 1.4% in December.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.6 million barrels to 293.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 86.5% to 85.0% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.4% YoY.
  
  

• Cocoa rose to a 4 1/2-year high on speculation that supplies from West Africa are drying up.
  

U.S. farming practices acidifying Mississippi "It's like the discovery of a new large river being piped out of the Corn Belt," Raymond said. "Agricultural practices have significantly changed the hydrology and chemistry of the Mississippi."

Zimbabwe Economics

As we’ve hinted, too, it is one thing to punish a few speculators with skin in the dotcom game. It is quite another to deliver a stern lesson to America’s entire middle class. The latter never liked school.

New Alzheimer's Treatment Completes First Phase Of Testing
A molecule designed by a Purdue University researcher to stop the debilitating symptoms of Alzheimer's disease has been shown in its first phase of clinical trials to be safe and to reduce biomarkers for the disease.

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• U.S. durable goods orders rose 5.2% in December, much more than expected. Excluding transportation orders rose 2.6%.
  

• Consumer confidence fell from 90.6 to 87.9 in January.
  

• Japan’s employment rate unchanged at 3.8%.
  Japan's retail sales fell 0.1% YoY. Household spending rose 2.2%.
  

• Tyson Foods, the nation's second largest pork packer, announced they were in talks with China to supply them with pork. No timetable was announced.
  

• According to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller, U.S. home prices fell 8.4% YoY. With double-digit declines recorded in some hard-hit areas, such as Miami, San Diego, Las Vegas and Detroit.

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• U.S. New-home sales fell 4.7% MoM, and 26% YoY. The median price of a new home fell 10% YoY to $219,200.
  
  

• The Fed meets tomorrow and Wednesday.
  
  

• Home prices in the U.K. fell 0.3% in December. UK house prices could fall by as much as 5% this year and 8% in 2009, the quarterly Deloitte Economic Review has warned.
  

• Gold and platinum prices hit an all-time high after South Africa's main precious metals mines remained closed for the fourth day for lack of power.

Water shortage poses economic threat
The global population will rise above 9bn by 2050 but as early as 2025 the amount of water available per capita per year will have halved compared to 1960. Then it was 13,000 cubic meters but by 2025 that is projected to have fallen to 6,000 cubic meters.

Banks May Need $143 Billion for Insurer Downgrades (Update4)
``Barclays Capital has come up with a very big and very scary number,'' said Donald Light, an insurance analyst at Boston-based consulting firm Celent. ``It indicates that the cost of a bailout of the bond insurers is a lot less than the cost of shoring up these banks' mark-to-market losses.''

Bernanke's Easing Thwarted by Surging Commercial Mortgage Rates
``Lending standards became more lax because people knew they wouldn't be keeping the loans on their books,'' Tross said

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• GDP in South Korea rose 5.5% QoQ
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in December, 2.4% YoY
  

• Japan's consumer prices rose 0.7% YoY
  

• IGC estimates corn demand at 770 ml tons, and production at 765 ml tons in the 12-month through June.
  

• Argentina lowered it’s corn production estimate to 21 ml tons from 22.
  

• ICO estimates coffee production at 116 million bags and consumption at 123 for 2007-08.
  

• F.O. Licht, lowered it’s estimate for world sugar production this year by 0.5%. It estimates production at 169.1 ml tons, down from an October estimate of 169.9.
  

• The IGC estimates the 2008/09 world wheat crop at a record 642 million tons. That'd be up 6.6% from the 2007/08 crop.
  
  

• Platinum futures hit all-time highs and gold futures set fresh life-of-contract highs, on power-supply shortages in South Africa.

• The rumor of the day is that the almost daily imports of corn by South Korea are actually Chinas.

Europe and Asia face hard landings as bubbles burst
I am bullish on Asia but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The US is a $9.5 trillion (£4.9 trillion) consumption economy: China is $1 trillion, and India is $650bn. They are not yet at the stage where they can fill the void left by an over-indebted US," he said.
Mr Roach said US consumption reached 72pc of GDP in 2007. "No country in the history of the world has ever consumed that much of its GDP.
"We've played the housing bubble, using homes as ATM machines," he said.

A return to normal levels of savings would amount an economic shock equal to 5pc of GDP.

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales are down 2.2% MoM and down 22% YoY.
  Prices of single family homes were down 1.8% in 2007 -- the first decline since records began four decades ago.
  

• China’s GDP rose 11.4% in 2007.
  

• Russia had 1.8% inflation in the first three weeks of January
  

• YoY Japan's trade surplus narrowed 20.9% in December
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 1,000 last week to 301,000.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.3 million barrels to 289.4 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 5.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 86.5%
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1%
  Distillate demand rose 0.3%.
  
  

Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue New capital may help preserve the top credit ratings for the bond guarantors such as MBIA Inc., the industry's largest, and halt any erosion of investor confidence in the $2 trillion of assets they guarantee. Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA's biggest rival, lost its AAA grade from Fitch Ratings this month on concern about rising defaults tied to subprime mortgages.

Quick Overview

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter and up 3.1% for all of 2007.
  
  

• Canada's leading indicators fell 0.1% in December.
  

• Australia’s consumer prices rose 3.0%.
  

• The USDA said there were 464.3 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 5% YoY.

• Frozen bellies totaled 55.5 million pounds, up 32% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said supplies of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage totaled 682 million pounds.

The Fed did not panic As skittish markets showed today, more will undoubtedly be required, and soon. But at least the US authorities are facing up to the predicament that they created in the first place by fixing the price of credit artificially low for year after year, and failing to regulate banks, derivatives, and structured credit with a minimum of common sense.