Quick Overview

• Japan's index of leading indicators hit 0% in September, a signal of slower conditions ahead.
  

• Business activity in the Euro Area improved from 54.2 to 55.8 in October.
  

• Retail sales in the Euro Area rose 0.3% in September.
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted interest rates to an 11-year high of 6.75%.
  

• Peruvian miners went on strike. Peru is the world's largest producer of silver, fifth largest gold producer, and third largest copper producer.
  
  

• In Q4, the U.S. Department of Energy expects world oil consumption at 87.45 million barrels a day, and production at 85.88 million barrels a day.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 54.8 to 55.8 in October, stronger than expected.
  

• The Federal Reserve should be ready to reverse two interest rate cuts if the U.S. economy escapes major damage from recent market turmoil, but recovery is a way off for housing and subprime mortgage markets, Fed officials said.
  

• Citigroup warned of another $8 to $11 billion in loan losses, reigniting fears about the health of financial firms and the broader U.S. economy. The CEO quit.
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said that at the end of October, there were 49.2 million gallons of frozen orange concentrate in inventory, this is down 17% YoY.
  

• U.K. services fell from 56.7 to 53.1 in October, weaker than expected,
  

• U.K’s Factory production fell 0.6%.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui yesterday underlined the need to raise interest rates in a timely manner, saying that keeping them too low in the light of economic conditions could pose risks in the future.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in October with a net increase of 166,000 jobs, much more than expected.
  

• U.S. Factory orders rose 0.2% in September, better than expected. Excluding transport, orders rose 1.4%.
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 5.9% to 5.8% in October, the lowest in 33 years
  

• Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty played down the idea of cutting interest rates as a way of stemming the rise of the Canadian dollar.
  

• Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 53.2 to 51.5 in October, the lowest in two years.
  

• Informa estimates the U.S. corn crop at 13.193 billion bushels, down 125 million from the last USDA forecast.
  
  

• Informa estimates the U.S. soybean crop at 2.628 billion bushels, up 30 million from the last USDA forecast.
  
  

• The Census Bureau said soybean oil stocks were 2.91 billion pounds at the end of September compared with 3.05 billion in August.

Quick Overview

• The Fed injected $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.4% in September, as expected
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.3%, less than expected.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 52.0 to 50.9 in October, weaker than expected.
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.8% in September.
  

$43.5 Billion Spying Budget for Year, Not Including Military
The number released Tuesday does not include the billions of dollars that military services spend annually on intelligence operations. The total spying budget for the last fiscal year, including this Pentagon spending, is said to have been in excess of $50 billion.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, as expected. The discount rate was reduced from 5.25% to 5.00%
  

• U.S. GDP rose 3.9% YoY, the best quarterly performance in over a year.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.8% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY.
  

• U.S. Personal consumption rose 1.9%
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.3% QoQ. YOY construction spending is down 3.2%
  

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 54.2% to 49.7%, weaker than expected
  

• Canada's GDP rose 0.2% MoM, and 2.4 YoY.
  

• Japan estimates GDP growth at 1.8% down from 2.1%.
  Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.50%.
  Japan's housing starts fell 44% YoY
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels.
• Supplies of gasoline rose 1.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 86.2%
  U.S. gasoline demand rose 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.7%.
  
  
  

War Plans: United States and Iran
A possible U.S. attack against Iran has been a hot topic in the news for many months now. In some quarters it has become an article of faith that the Bush administration intends to order such an attack before it leaves office. It remains a mystery whether the administration plans an actual attack or whether it is using the threat of attack to try to intimidate Iran -- and thus shape its behavior in Iraq and elsewhere. Unraveling the mystery lies, at least in part, in examining what a U.S. attack would look like, given U.S. goals and resources, as well as in considering the potential Iranian response. Before turning to intentions, it is important to discuss the desired outcomes and capabilities. Unfortunately, those discussions have taken a backseat to speculations about the sheer probability of war.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell more than expected, from 99.5 to 95.6, lowest in two years.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate fell from 8.8% to 8.7%.
  

• The national average price of diesel fuel rose 6.3 cents to $3.157 a gallon, matching the all-time record set two years ago.
  
  

• Australia predicts the current wheat crop at 12.1 million tons down form 15.5 previously forecast and 13.5 the last USDA prediction.
  

• Australia's livestock industry will be forced for the first time to import grain from overseas if local supplies continue to dwindle in the crippling drought, producers have warned.
  

• The International Sugar Organization said a global sugar excess may take as long as two years to reduce because of record crops in India and Brazil.
  

• Cocoa: There is concern that black pod disease may be spreading in the Ivory Coast
  

• US real estate wealth is expected to fall anywhere from US$2 trillion to US$4 trillion when the total costs of the recent credit crunch are tallied, the New York Times reported.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting tomorrow, and the market anticipates a rate cut.
  

• Retail sales in Japan rose 0.5% MoM

• Japan's unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.8% last Month.
  

• Tropical Storm Noel may be heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
  

• Gold and agriculture prices rose, and oil reached a new record close.
  

• The dollar sank to a new low against the euro and a 47-year low against the Canadian $.
  

• There is talk of increasing South African mine safety rules, that could make it harder for South African gold production to recover.
  

China Passes U.S. in Top 10 List as China Life Surges
``European countries were also surprised at the beginning of the 20th century when American companies overtook European companies,'' he said. ``The world better get used to it.''

Rumsfeld flees France fearing arrest US embassy officials whisked Rumsfeld away yesterday from a breakfast meeting in Paris organized by the Foreign Policy magazine after human rights groups filed a criminal complaint against the man who spearheaded President George W. Bush's "war on terror" for six years.

Under international law, authorities in France are obliged to open an investigation when a complaint is made while the alleged torturer is on French soil.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 82.0 to 80.9 in October.
  

• Australia’s leading indicators rose 0.7%.
  

• The USDA said that beef production totaled 2.09 billion pounds in September, down 3% YoY.
  

• The USDA said pork production totaled 1.75 billion pounds in September
  

• Countrywide Financial lost $1.2 billion in the third-quarter, but its shares rose after the largest U.S. mortgage lender said it expects to be profitable in the fourth quarter and in 2008.
  
  
  

• While Bush, and G.O.P. candidates led by Romney, take hostilities against Iran to new highs, the dollar makes new lows, crude oil and gold make new highs.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. New home sales fell 23% YoY.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders fell 1.7% in September, weaker than expected. Excluding transport orders rose 0.3% in September.
  

• The DoE said underground supplies of natural gas were up 68 billion cubic feet last week to 3.443 trillion cubic feet.
  

• China’s GDP rose 11.5% QoQ.
  

• The U.S. Fed is close to agreeing to changes in its communication strategy, including quarterly publication of internal forecasts, but it will not adopt an inflation target any time soon.
  
  

• Microsoft said first-quarter earnings rose 23 percent, exceeding estimates.
  
  

• Crude oil rose above $90 after a report showed a drop in U.S. stockpiles and the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran. This is prompting new fears about supplies ahead of the peak winter season.
  

• For the eighth month Japan's consumer prices fell 0.1%, a sign that deflation lingers in the world's second-largest economy.
  

• Japan’s industrial production fell 1.4 %
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Existing home sales fell 8.0% from August's pace -- the lowest since records began in 1999.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 5.3 million barrels to 316.6 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline were down 2.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil were up 900,000 barrels.
  

• Australia’s consumer prices rose 0.9% QoQ and up 2.9% YoY.
  

• Germanys leading economic indicators fell 0.8% in August.
  

• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission told Congress on Wednesday the electronic Intercontinental Exchange's natural gas contract should be subject to more government oversight.
  
  

• Merrill Lynch announced that its US mortgage-related losses were not $4.5bn but $7.9bn.

The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could total $2.4 trillion
A previous CBO estimate put the wars' costs at more than $1.6 trillion. This one adds $705 billion in interest, taking into account that the conflicts are being funded with borrowed money.

Quick Overview

• Retail sales in Canada rose 0.7%
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area rose 0.3% MoM and 5.1% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan's trade surplus rose 62.7%.
  
  

U.S. lawmakers to mull subprime bankruptcy relief Under the plan, bankruptcy judges could extend the life of a home loan, change the interest rate or simply mark down the loan amount. Judges currently have that broad authority to modify other types of debt, including money owed on credit cards or auto payments.

Updates resume "after" San Diego fires, hopefully within the next couple of days!

Quick Overview

• Turkey is serious about sending troops into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish separatist rebels hiding there and is not bluffing, a senior minister said.
  
  
  
  

• The dollar fell to a 33-year low against the Canadian, hit a record low ageist the Euro, a poor housing market, so-so corporate earnings, oil prices at $90 -- and Wall Street took a hit.
  
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.8% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY
  
  
  

• USDA's Keith Collins believes US corn acreage will decline in the coming year to 87 million, cotton to 10 million. Collins estimates US wheat plantings at 64 million acres, soybeans at 70 million - both increases from the previous year.
  
  

• There is talk that Russia will increase its export duty on wheat to 30%. Currently Russia plans a 10% duty on wheat exports to take effect next month.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 10.967 million head of cattle on feed on October 1st, down 3.7% YoY. Placements rose 9% YoY and marketing’s fell 3%.
  
  

• The USDA attaché expects Brazil’s sugar production in 2007-2008, up 2%. He also expects Brazil’s ethanol production up 16%.
  

• YoY the U.S. cocoa grind, at 94,179 tons, fell 14%.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless aid jumped by 28,000 last week, more than expected and the biggest increase for any week since February.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing dropped from 10.9 to 6.8 in October, a sign of slower growth.
  

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.3% in September
  

• U.K. Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 39 billion cubic feet last week to 3.375 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 2%
  

• Wheat sales have reached 82.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 51.3% on average over the last five years.