Robert Fisk: Iraqi insurgents offer peace in return for US concessions
Al-Jeelani suggests the United Nations, the Arab League or the Islamic Conference might lead such negotiations and would have to guarantee the security of the participants.

Then come the conditions:

* The release of 5,000 detainees held in Iraqi prisons as "proof of goodwill".

* Recognition "of the legitimacy of the resistance and the legitimacy of its role in representing the will of the Iraqi people".

* An internationally guaranteed timetable for all agreements.

* The negotiations to take place in public.

* The resistance "must be represented by a committee comprising the representatives of all the jihadist brigades".

* The US to be represented by its ambassador in Iraq and the most senior commander.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that wholesale sales were up 1.8% in December. Wholesale inventories were down 0.5%.
  
  

• (Financial Times) The new Democratic leadership of the US Congress is pressuring the Bush administration to coerce Tokyo into acting to strengthen the yen.
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate improved from 4.6% to 4.5% in December, the lowest in over 30 years.
  

• New Zealand's unemployment rate improved from 3.8% to 3.7%.
  

• The European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 3.5%, as expected.
  

• The Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 224 billion cubic feet last week to 2.347 trillion cubic feet.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Nonfarm business productivity had an annual gain of 3.0% in the fourth quarter, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. savings rate has fallen to a 74-year low.

• Australia’s consumer prices were down 0.1%.
  

• India expects the economy to grow 9.2%.
  

• Reuters - The U.S. Federal Reserve sent record payouts of more than $4 billion in cash to Baghdad on giant pallets aboard military planes shortly before the United States gave control back to Iraqis, lawmakers said on Tuesday.
  
  

• Reuters - President George W. Bush said on Tuesday he had approved plans to create a U.S. military command for Africa, a move that reflects increased U.S. strategic interest in the continent.
  
  
  

• The Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) reports that total volume during January 2007 of 65,968,217 contracts was up 20% from January 2006.
  
  
  

• A leading Asian soybean rust researcher says this year's winter weather likely hasn't knocked out the fungal disease from locations where it’s overwintering in the Southern U.S.
  

• Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association changed their crop forecast to 57.1 million tonnes from 55.8 million tonnes projected in January. This compares with the USDA forecast of 56 million tonnes.
  
  

• Goldman Sachs has agreed to sell its GSCI commodity index to Standard & Poor's.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 400,000 barrels at 324.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 2.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.9 million barrels.
  YoY gasoline demand over the past four weeks was up 3.9%
  YoY distillate demand was up 3.6%
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Legacy of Radiation Illness Stirs Objection to Nevada Bomb Test
The federal government reassured the townspeople they were in no danger as it detonated 952 bombs in Nevada over four decades. But thousands of people who lived downwind of the test site got radiation-related cancer, and the town of 50,000 has its own cancer-treatment center today.

Soybeans Prices Rise on Concern U.S. Acreage to Shift to Corn
(Bloomberg) -- Soybean prices rose to an 19-month high, extending a rally that began in September, on speculation that a smaller U.S. crop will crimp supplies as global demand grows for fuels made from vegetable oils.

Updates resume February 7.

US must abandon Iraqi cities or face nightmare scenario, say experts
It warns of radicalisation and possible secession movements in adjacent countries, an upsurge in terrorism, and of intervention by Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Ending an all-out civil war, the report says, would require a force of 450,000 - three times the present US deployment even after the 21,500 "surge" ordered by President Bush this month.

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board said the consumer confidence index increased from 110.0 to 110.3 in January.
  

• Japan’s household spending was down 1.9% in December, the twelfth consecutive decline.
  Japans Industrial production was up 0.7% in December.
  Japan's unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1% in December.
  

• Canada's factory prices jumped rose 1.4% in December.
  

• Indonesia's economy rose 5.5% in 2006.
  

• Saudi Arabia intends to cut supply by 158,000 barrels a day from February 1.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said inflation appeared to be at a very manageable level, which would help to sustain a U.S. economic expansion.
  

• The European Union will need to import 6 million tons of ethanol by 2010 to meet local alternative energy needs, with Brazil being the likely country to supply most of it.

Thailand approves copycat drugs THAILAND'S army appointed government said today it had approved a cheap, copycat heart disease drug, the first time a developing country has ignored an international patent for such a treatment.

Quick Overview

• Trade ministers from some 30 countries agree that full-scale global trade talks should resume quickly.
  
  
  

• U.S. new home sales were up 4.8% from November's pace and more than expected. For all of 2006, new home sales were down 17%.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders were up 3.1% in December. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.3%. For all of 2006, durable goods orders were up 7.0%.
  

• The USDA said that there were 11.974 million head of cattle on feed on January 1st, up 1.4% YoY. December placements were down 9% YoY, and marketing’s were down 5%.
  

• YoY Japan's consumer prices were up 0.3%.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. jobless claims were up 36,000 last week to 325,000.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that December’s U.S. existing home sales were down 0.8% from November's pace and down 7.9% YoY. Inventory of unsold homes declined 8% to 3.51 million.
  

• China's Q4 GDP remained rose 10.4%, 10.7% YoY an 11-year high.
  

• YoY Japans core CPI rose 0.1 % in December, lower than the expected 0.2 percent rise.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 179 billion cubic feet to 2.757 trillion cubic feet.

Quick Overview

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said core inflation at 2.5 percent was too high, but declined to say what level would be comfortable for him.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage application was down 8.4% last week .
  

• Australia's consumer prices were down 0.1% in the fourth quarter and up 3.3% YoY.
  

• U.K.’s GDP was up 3.0%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 700,000 barrels last week to 322.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 4.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 1.5 million barrels.
  YoY Gasoline demand was up 2.2% and distillate demand was down 4.1%.
  

Corn Dog
Between 1995 and 2003, federal corn subsidies totaled $37.3 billion.

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board leading indicators figure for December came in +0.3%, which was better than expected.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in Canada were up 1.6% in December.
  
  

• YoY consumer spending in France rose 6.8%, more than expected.
  
  

• The dollar weakened against European currencies, hitting a 14-year low against the BPound on expectations that interest rates will continue to rise in Europe.
  
  

• Japan is considering legislation designed to encourage the widespread use of biofuels
  such as ethanol as a way to tackle global warming and diversify energy sources, The Nikkei reported.

Quick Overview

• Executives of 10 major corporations, urged Bush to support mandatory reductions in climate-changing pollution and establish reductions targets.
  

• The USDA said that there were 440 million pounds of frozen pork in storage on December 31st, up 3% YoY. Bellies totaled 40.0 million pounds, down 17 % YoY.
  

• The USDA said that, as of December 31st, there were 678 million pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage, down 35% YoY.

Coin shortage could turn pennies to nickels
Sharply rising prices of metals such as copper and nickel have meant the face value of pennies and nickels are worth less than the material that they are made of, increasing the risk that speculators could melt the coins and sell them for a profit.

US Army officer barred from disputing legality of Iraq war at court-martial
A US military judge ruled Tuesday that 1st Lt. Ehren Watada, a US Army officer who refused deployment to Iraq because he felt the war is 'unlawful,' cannot argue that point in his upcoming court-martial. Lt. Col. John Head further ruled that Watada may not raise a free speech defense, as soldiers do not enjoy the same constitutional rights as civilians.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in December and 2.6% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in December and 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. new housing starts jumped 4.5% in December as builders took advantage of warmer weather, the Commerce Department said Thursday. For all of 2006, housing starts were down 13%.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -2.3 to +8.3 in January, more than expected.
  

• The Bank of Japan keep interest rate unchanged at .25%.
  

• U.S. Labor jobless claims were down 8,000 at 290,000, the lowest in eleven months.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 6.8 million barrels to 321.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 3.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 400,000 barrels.
  Supplies of underground natural gas were down 89 billion cubic to 2.936 trillion cubic feet.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. industrial production rose 0.4% in December and 4.0% in 2006
  
  

• U.S. Capacity utilization out at 81.8%.
  
  

• The producer price index rose 0.9% in December and 1.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.2% and up 2.0% YoY.
  
  

• Foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities totaled $107.4 billion while U.S. purchases of foreign securities totaled $39.1 billion.
  
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro zone were up 1.9% in December.
  
  

• U.K.’s unemployment rate out at 5.5%.
  

Iran, Iraq to jointly establish shipping company
Tehran, Jan 16, IRNA Iran-Iraq-Shipping Managing Director of Val fajr shipping company Lotfollah Saeedi said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq signed a letter of understanding on establishing a joint shipping company.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing dropped from 22.19 to 9.13 in January, weaker than expected.
  

• The International Coffee Organization expects 07_08 global coffee production at 110.5 million bags and demand at 119 million bags.
  Green Coffee Association said U.S. coffee stocks were at 4.987 million bags, down 59,646 bags in December.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 3.0%.
  

• The yen fell to a new low against the dollar after a report suggested the Bank of Japan was unlikely to raise rates at its meeting.

• YoY November air cargo shipments rose 2.9% , the Air Transport Association said.

Nomads Beware!
A make-or-break speech by a beleagured American president is usually preceded by a demonstration of American might somewhere on the planet and the run-up to Bush’s address Wednesday night was no exception. The AC-130 U.S. gunship that massacred a convoy of fleeing Islamists on Somalia’s southwestern border, apparently along with dozens of nomads, their families and livestock, was deployed on its mission on Sunday, to make timely newspaper headlines indicative of Bush’s determination to strike at terror wherever it may lurk. Moral to nomads: when the US president schedules a speech, don’t herd, don’t go to wedding parties, head for the nearest cave.

Less Than Zero
All this, again, adds up to nothing. But if we look at the President's proposal more carefully, we find it actually amounts to less than zero. It hints at actions that may turn a mere debacle into disaster on a truly historic scale.

Bush's tough tactics are a 'declaration of war' on Iran
But if the US is preparing to confront Iran militarily - which some top military officials in Israel are reportedly recommending - the Bush administration will find itself involved in conflicts on four fronts.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Retail sales rose 0.9% in December, more than expected.
  

• India's Nov industrial production rose 14.4% YoY.
  

• Chinese GDP rose to 10.5% from 10.4% QoQ.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 935 to 752 million bushels. (stocks/usage 6%, lowest since 1975)
  Soybeans were increased from 565 to 575 million bushels. (stocks/usage 19%)
  Wheat was increased from 438 to 472 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.981 to 1.801 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 6.30 to 7.10 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 93 to 86 million tons. (stocks/usage 11.9%)
  Soybeans increased to 56 million tons. (stocks/usage 25%)
  Wheat was increased from 121 to 122 million tons.
  Cotton was increased slightly to 52 million tons.
  

• The USDA estimate for the 2006-2007 Florida orange crop is 140 million boxes (unchanged) and a projected juice yield of 1.58 million gallons a box .
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 26,000 to 299,000.
  

• The DoE said that supplies of natural gas were down 49 billion cubic feet to 3.025 trillion cubic feet
  

• The Bank of England today surprised the market with a 25 bp hike in the base rate to 5.25%. The market consensus was for an unchanged policy.
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.50%.
  

• Germany's real GDP was up 2.5% in 2006.
  

• Japan's index of leading indicators dropped from 54.5% to 20.0% in November, indicative of economic slowing ahead.
  

War With Syria and Iran = Peace With Iraq?
Speaking about the two countries tonight, the president said that the United States wiill "seek out and destroy" those who are providing material support to our enemies.
It is only a threat. But it is a far cry from the diplomatic proposals floated just last month for making Syria and Iran part of the solution. Can the president really be saying that we are willing to risk war with the two countries, and even attack elements inside them, to achieve peace in Iraq?

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in November to its smallest level since July 2005. Exports were up 0.9% in November to $124.8 billion while imports were up 0.3% at $183.0 billion,
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were down 5.0 million barrels at 314.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 3.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 2.1 million barrels.
  

• The National Climatic Data Center said 2006 was the warmest year on record in the U.S. and the sixth warmest worldwide.
  
  

Bush Lifts Alaska Oil, Gas Drilling Ban
There are believed to be 200 million barrels of oil and 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the bay's federal waters three miles to 200 miles from shore. The Interior Department last year estimated energy development could produce up to 11,500 jobs and new tax revenue for the state.
But the area also is known for its fisheries with huge annual catches of salmon, cod, red king crab, halibut and huge schools of herring.