Countdown Special Comment: Death of Habeas Corpus: “Your words are lies, Sir.”

Quick Overview

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -.4 to -.7, weaker than expected.
  

• The Conference Board's U.S. index of leading indicators was up 0.1% in September to 137.7. Five of the ten components showed positive gains.
  

• YoY China's industrial production increased 16.1% in September.
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. were down 0.4% in September.
  

• The U.S. Energy Department said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 53 billion cubic feet to 3.442 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are up 13% YoY.
  

The limits of liberty: We're all suspects now
And here is the interesting thing that Havel put his finger on: no matter how brutal or ruthless the regime, the act of depriving people of their freedom starts the stopwatch on that regime's inevitable demise. What he was saying was that in modern times a state can only thrive in the fullest sense when individuals are accorded maximum freedom.

Britain has joined the US, China and Russia to block a proposed ban on cluster bombs in the wake of extensive use of the weapons during the war in Lebanon.
Israeli forces dropped an estimated 1m cluster bomblets in southern Lebanon this summer - 90% of which were dropped in the last three days of the conflict, a new report from Landmine Action said yesterday. The weapons have left a trail of unexploded munitions that is killing between three and four civilians each day and impeding relief work.

Group lists 10 most polluted places on Earth
The list was compiled by the New York-based nonprofit group the Blacksmith Institute, which said the world's pollution is sickening up to 1 billion people.

A Bush In Need Of Pruning
My impression is that much of the public wants authoritarian rule, or would be perfectly content with it if it even noticed its arrival. No, I can’t prove it. But what do most people care about beyond television on screens that grow ever larger, beyond porn, beer, and the competitive purchase of grander SUVs? I ask this not as a lifelong curmudgeon being tiresome (though doubtless I am both) but seriously. Who in a sprawling TV-besotted country cares about the Constitution? A comfortable police state is after all comfortable.

Gaza doctors say patients suffering mystery injuries after Israeli attacks "Bodies arrived severely fragmented, melted and disfigured," said Jumaa Saqa'a, a doctor at the Shifa hospital, in Gaza City. "We found internal burning of organs, while externally there were minute pieces of shrapnel. When we opened many of the injured people we found dusting on their internal organs."


Iraq war cost years of progress in Afghanistan - UK brigadier
The invasion of Iraq prevented British forces from helping to secure Afghanistan much sooner and has left a dangerous vacuum in the country for four years, the commander who has led the attack against the Taliban made clear yesterday.


Red wine can help prevent stroke damage: study Red wine might work to protect the brain from damage after a stroke and drinking a couple of glasses a day might provide that protection ahead of time, U.S. researchers reported on Sunday.

Quick Overview

• US consumer prices were down 0.5% in September and up 2.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up 0.2% in September and up 2.9% YoY.
  

• US housing starts were stronger than expected and up 6% from the pace in August. So far in 2006, housing starts are down 9% YoY.
  

• Mortgage applications index was reported at -2.2%, adding to last week's decline of -5.5%.
  

• The Euro zone trade deficit with China rose to a record 47.6 bln Euros ($59.7 bln) in the year through July, up 24% YoY.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators increased 0.4% in September.
  

• The unemployment rate in the U.K. for June to August was 5.5%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 5.1 million barrels to 335.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 5.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 500,000 barrels.

Will the Supreme Court shackle new tribunal law?
The terror legislation set to be signed into law Tuesday by President Bush sits atop an ideological fault line that sharply divides the US Supreme Court and highlights the emerging power of Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices were down 1.3% in September, but up 0.9% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up 0.6%.
  

• U.S. Industrial production was down 0.6% in September, weaker than expected and the biggest drop in a year.
  

• The U.S. Treasury Department said that net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities totaled $119.5 billion in August. U.S. purchases of foreign securities totaled $2.7 billion, resulting in a positive net capital inflow of $116.8 billion.
  

• Japans tertiary index, which measures spending in the services sector, rose 0.7% MoM. YOY the index rose 1.6 pct in August following a revised 2.0% increase in July.
  
  

• The Bank of Japan plans to beef up monitoring of "carry trades," and is concerned about how hedge funds and other investors are helping push down the yen, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported.
  

• Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.4% in September.
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro-12 were up 1.7% in September.
  
  

• USAgnet: Czarnkow Sugar Ltd. says that Brazil is exporting so much ethanol, they may not meet domestic demand.
  
  

Quick Overview

• St Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said on Monday the cost of higher inflation outweighed that of slower growth, although he also thought the news on prices has improved in recent months.
  
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing increased from 13.8 to 22.9 in October, more than expected
  
  

• India's forex reserves came down by USD 30 million to stand at USD 165.275 billion.
  
  

• Canada's manufacturing shipments totaled C$49.8 billion in August, down 0.3% MoM
  

• Consumer confidence in Japan slipped from -6.7 to -11.0.
  

• The Bulgarian parliament voted unanimously to cut the country's company tax rate to 10 percent from January 1, 2007. The changes will make Bulgaria one of the two countries, along with Greek Cyprus, with the lowest corporate tax rate in the European Union when it joins the bloc next year.
  

• A study found that 87 percent of parents believe scholarships and grants will cover at least part of their children's undergraduate expenses, and nearly three-quarters think their children are "special or unique" enough to win a scholarship.
  
  
  

• Russia's central bank said it was starting to buy the Japanese currency for its reserves. The proportion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves currently invested in the yen was close to zero, but the bank would try to increase it to several percent of total reserves.
  
  
  

It's time to say sorry for Iraq's agony
On Friday, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) issued its bleakest assessment. Conflict has displaced 1.5 million people inside Iraq; a tide of refugees swells the 1.6 million living outside the country. The Lancet's estimate of 655,000 deaths since the conflict began is not only in a different stratosphere from Bush's ballpark figure of 30,000 'more or less'. It is also evidence of the asymmetry in the death roll of the war on terror.

In contrast to the attrition in Iraq, no US citizen has died in an Islamist attack on US soil since 9/11. Neo-con certainties about gun-barrel democracy have perished, naturally, and the graveyards of political theory bristle with their memorials. But, like a headless chicken, the strategy stumbles on. Dig in for victory. No British exit is likely to change that course any time soon.

China unlikely to overtake US economy: Treasury head
"I think that there's more risk on the downside for China, although I am an optimist," the Treasury secretary said.

Quick Overview

• Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep the overnight call rate target at 0.25 %. BOJ Governor Fukui said that he "cannot rule out the possibility" of another rate hike this year. Market expectation for a rate hike this year has dropped to 25%.
  
  

• Bank of Japan reported producer prices in September rose 3.6 %, the most in 25 years.
  
  

• China’s current reserves surged to a record $988 billion at the end of September, up 28.5% YoY.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in France were up 1.5% in September
  

• U.S. Retail sales were down 0.4% in September. Excluding autos, sales were down 0.5%. The weakness came mostly from lower gasoline prices.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 85.4 to 92.3 in October, more than expected.
  

• Argentina may limit wheat exports in an attempt to keep domestic prices down.
  

• BBC News reported that Ghana and the Ivory Coast are struggling to contain the spread of swollen shoot virus which is hitting their cocoa crops. The two countries account for over one-half of the world's cocoa production.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators placed a record amount of bets the yen will decline against the dollar, according to weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Army chief: British troops must pull out of Iraq soon
General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the army, dropped a political bombshell last night by saying that Britain must withdraw from Iraq "soon" or risk serious consequences for Iraqi and British society.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that U.S. exports were up $2.7 billion in August to $122.4 billion while imports were up $4.6 billion to $192.3 billion. The rise in the U.S. trade deficit nudged the dollar off against the Euro and yen.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims were up 4,000 last week.
  

• Consumer prices in Germany were down 0.5% in September and up 1.0% YoY.
  

• Canada's exports were up 0.3% in August -- imports were down 0.6%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its 2006-07 global wheat production estimate by 11 million tons to 585.1 million tons. This in turn led to a 7.1 million-ton drop to global ending stocks to 119.3 million tons, a 25-year low. The USDA lowered
  Australian 2006-07 wheat production to 11 million tons from its 19.5-
  million-ton estimate in September.
  
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 1.220 to .996 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were increased from 530 to 555 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 429 to 418 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.756 to 1.755 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 4.60 to 5.40 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 92 to 90 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 52 to 55 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 126 to 119 million tons (the lowest stocks figure in 25 years)
  Cotton was increased from 47 to 52 million tons.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 300,000 barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of natural gas were up 62 billion cubic feet.
  

Gold Rush Plunges Undersea as Miners Scour Pacific
Placer Dome Ltd., a Vancouver-based mining company later acquired by Toronto-based Barrick, invested $12 million in 2005 and 2006 to fund Nautilus's first tests. The company was founded in 1997 by Julian Malnic, an Australian writer of mining newsletters who acquired offshore exploration licenses from Papua New Guinea.
Nautilus went public on Canada's TSX Venture Exchange in May, raising C$25 million ($22.3 million). Neptune raised 9.3 million pounds ($17.6 million) on London's Alternative Investment Market in October 2005.
Barrick converted Placer Dome's investment into a 9.59 percent stake in Nautilus in August.
``Our Nautilus stake allows us to participate in the future upside,'' says Alex Davidson, executive vice president of exploration and corporate development at Barrick.

600,000 Dead in Iraq

Today the public health department at Johns Hopkins has released a new study of deaths in Iraq, based on a new larger sample of the population. Around 600,000 have died in Iraq since the U.S. attacked in the spring of 2003.

September foreclosures up 19 percent
Foreclosures in the state grew 19 percent from August to September, pushing California to the top of the list for the most new foreclosure filings in September. The number of foreclosures in the state tripled since September 2005, with 14,806 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, or about one for every 825 households. This represents an increase of 40 percent since July.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Treasury said the federal government posted a $247.7 billion deficit in 2005-2006, down from $319 billion the previous year and the smallest in four years.
  

• Minutes from the Fed September policy meeting showed officials remain "concerned" about upside inflation risks.
  
  

• GDP in the EU-12 was up 0.9% QoQ and up 2.7% YoY.